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(原標(biāo)題)軟實(shí)力超級大國

Global trends in cultural engagement and influence

（副標(biāo)題）全球文化參與與文化影響力變化趨勢

Author: Alistair MacDonald

作者：阿利斯泰爾·麥克唐納

The global presence of international cultural institutions

國際文化機(jī)構(gòu)的全球存在

Against the backdrop of global power shifts, growing competition between nations and challenges to the international rules-based system, major changes are taking place in the soft power landscape globally. A number of countries are investing heavily in this area and one of the clearest indicators of this is the expanding presence and impact of states’ official bodies for cultural and educational exchange. In this chapter we present the latest data on these crucial networks.

相對于全球權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移的背景，國家之間日益增多的競爭以及基于規(guī)則的國際體系所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，在全球范圍內(nèi)，重大轉(zhuǎn)變正發(fā)生在軟實(shí)力領(lǐng)域。很多國家正在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域中大舉投資，而最明顯的跡象之一便是各國官方機(jī)構(gòu)在文化和教育交流中不斷擴(kuò)大的存在及其帶來的影響。在本章節(jié)中，我們給出了有關(guān)這些關(guān)鍵網(wǎng)絡(luò)的最新數(shù)據(jù)。



（圖解：圖一）

Figure 1 shows the changes in the global presence of the principal cultural institutes of key countries over the past five years. The data shows that China now has by far the largest number of international cultural institutes, with 507 of its Confucius Institutes now in operation, a huge increase from the 320 that were operational in 2013. The second largest nation for its global footprint of cultural institutes is France with 219 Institut Fran?ais centres around the world, a modest decrease on the 229 it had in 2013. The UK remains in third place in 2018 with 177 offices of the British Council, down from 196 in 2013. Equally noteworthy is the doubling in the number of operations of the Russkiy Mir Foundation up to 171 from just 82 five years ago.The remainder of the results show less dramatic changes. The dramatic expansion in the scale of the operations of both the Confucius Institute and Russkiy Mir Foundation reflects the priority China and Russia respectively have been giving to increasing their global influence and the very significant investments that they are making to achieve this. With the notable exception of the GoetheInstitut, which has increased its offices from 159 to 169, the European cultural office networks are by contrast in decline. Across the West in many nations, public investment in soft power has been either stable or falling. While the focus may be on China and Russia, all of the other Asian and Latin American countries in this study have also shown growth in their global footprint, reflecting growing investment and increasing focus on soft power as a plank of their foreign policy. Funding pressures have seen the British Council office network contract by nearly ten per cent over the same period as the Confucius Institute’s global operations have grown by over 50 per cent. The most notable decline in the British Council’s operations has been in the developed world with office closures including Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and New York. If these trends continue over the next five-year period we may start to witness a major reshaping of the global picture of cultural and soft power networks, with significant long-term implications for influence.

圖一展現(xiàn)了過去五年中，關(guān)鍵國家的主要文化機(jī)構(gòu)全球存在情況的變動(dòng)。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到目前為止，中國擁有的國際文化機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)量最多，現(xiàn)在運(yùn)營著520家孔子學(xué)院，相比2013年的320家有了大幅增長。文化機(jī)構(gòu)全球存在數(shù)量第二多的國家是法國，在全球有219家法國文化中心，相比于2013年的229家出現(xiàn)了小幅下降。英國在2018年保住了第三的座次，擁有177間英國文化協(xié)會(huì)辦公室，相比于2013年的196間有所下降。同樣值得注意的是，“俄羅斯世界”基金會(huì)的運(yùn)營數(shù)量出現(xiàn)了翻倍的情況，從5年前的82家增至171家。其余的結(jié)果展現(xiàn)出的劇烈變化較少。孔子學(xué)院和“俄羅斯世界”基金會(huì)在運(yùn)營規(guī)模上的急劇擴(kuò)張，反映出中國和俄羅斯一直以來在增強(qiáng)其全球影響力及其為達(dá)此目的作出的重大投資上設(shè)置的優(yōu)先級。除去歌德學(xué)院這個(gè)值得注意的例外，其辦公室已經(jīng)從159間增至169間，相比之下歐洲的文化辦公室網(wǎng)絡(luò)正在收縮中。在西方很多國家，對軟實(shí)力的公共投資一直處在不變或是下降中。雖然焦點(diǎn)可能在中國和俄羅斯身上，這項(xiàng)研究中所有其他的亞洲和拉丁美洲國家在其全球存在方面也展現(xiàn)出了增長，表現(xiàn)在不斷增長的投資，以及對軟實(shí)力不斷提升的關(guān)注度，后者已然成了它們外交政策的支點(diǎn)。資金壓力已經(jīng)讓英國文化協(xié)會(huì)的辦公室網(wǎng)絡(luò)收縮了近10%，而在同一時(shí)期，孔子學(xué)院的全球運(yùn)營數(shù)量增長了超過50%，英國文化協(xié)會(huì)運(yùn)營數(shù)量最顯著的下降出現(xiàn)在發(fā)達(dá)國家，在包括芬蘭、丹麥、瑞典、挪威和紐約均有辦公室被關(guān)停。如果這種趨勢在今后五年間內(nèi)延續(xù)下去，我們可能會(huì)開始見證文化和軟實(shí)力網(wǎng)絡(luò)全球版圖的一次重大重塑，長期來看，這對影響力有重大意義。



（圖二）

Figure 2 shows the regional presence of cultural institutes in both 2013 and 2018. This provides a more detailed picture of where investment in cultural institutes is taking place and which parts of the world are being most targeted for cultural connections and influence.

圖二展示了2013年和2018年，文化機(jī)構(gòu)在各地區(qū)的存在。這就投資文化機(jī)構(gòu)的發(fā)生地，以及世界上哪個(gè)地區(qū)受文化聯(lián)系和文化影響力投射最多，給出了更加詳細(xì)的圖景。

The data shows that the European unx has the greatest concentration of cultural institutes with a total of 412 (or 461 when we include the UK). The Americas comes in second with 284 cultural institutes followed by East Asia (245), Wider Europe – which includes the countries of the Former USSR along with Turkey and Israel – (192), Sub-Saharan Africa (143), the Middle East and North Africa (138), and South Asia (84). The growth in the number of Confucius Institutes in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the Wider Europe region is particularly notable, with the Middle East and North Africa now the only region where any European countries’ cultural institutions have a more extensive physical presence than China.

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，文化機(jī)構(gòu)分布最為密集的是歐盟，總數(shù)為412家（算上英國的話則為461家）。南北美位居第二，有284家文化機(jī)構(gòu)，東亞以245家緊隨其后。泛歐地區(qū)，包括前蘇聯(lián)國家，加上土耳其和以色列，有192家，撒哈拉以南的非洲地區(qū)有143家，中東和北非地區(qū)有138家，南亞地區(qū)有84家。孔子學(xué)院在撒哈拉以南的非洲和泛歐地區(qū)的數(shù)量增加尤其顯著，目前，中東和北非地區(qū)是唯一一個(gè)歐洲國家文化機(jī)構(gòu)的實(shí)體存在比中國數(shù)量更多的地區(qū)。

The most notable decline in the British Council’s operations has been in the European unx and Wider Europe. This is in contrast to other countries covered by this study which almost all show increases or at least maintenance of their presence across both regions over the past five years. For example, the Russkiy Mir Foundation presence in the European unx has increased from 28 to 58 offices while in Wider Europe the increase is from 31 to 56 offices.

英國文化協(xié)會(huì)運(yùn)營數(shù)量最顯著的下降發(fā)生在歐盟和泛歐地區(qū)。相形之下，該研究覆蓋到的其他國家過去五年在這兩個(gè)地區(qū)幾乎都呈現(xiàn)為增長，至少也能維持其存在。例如，“俄羅斯世界”基金會(huì)在歐盟的存在已經(jīng)從28間辦公室升至58間，同時(shí)在泛歐地區(qū)，已經(jīng)從31間辦公室升至56間。
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Leading nations’ approaches to soft power

全球主要國家構(gòu)建軟實(shí)力之路

In this section we explore the soft power strategies and assets of seven leading G20 states, highlighting their investment in, and ambitions for, growing their influence, before reviewing the status of the UK itself. The UK is often seen as an exemplar of soft power and is recognised for its large and effective diplomatic network and a strong reputation as a leading contributor to international development. The BBC World Service and the British Council are globally recognised as market leaders in their respective fields; while the global success of the UK’s cultural and educational sectors are seen as core to the country’s international attractiveness. While other countries often adopt superficially similar models for their soft power activities there are also often profound differences in their approaches. Some states have looked long and hard at the UK model and learned from it to develop their own distinctive and innovative approaches from which the UK in turn can learn.

在這個(gè)章節(jié)中，我們在對英國的地位作出評論之前，探討了G20中的七個(gè)主要國家的軟實(shí)力戰(zhàn)略和軟實(shí)力資產(chǎn)，突出了它們在增強(qiáng)影響力過程中的投資去向及野心所在。英國常被視為軟實(shí)力的典范，其廣大而有效的外交網(wǎng)絡(luò)及其身為國際發(fā)展主要貢獻(xiàn)者的聲望也得到了認(rèn)可。BBC全球服務(wù)以及英國文化協(xié)會(huì)在它們各自領(lǐng)域中市場領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的地位在全球范圍內(nèi)得到了認(rèn)可；而英國文化和教育部門在全球的成功被視為該國國際吸引力的核心。盡管其他國家通常會(huì)在其構(gòu)建軟實(shí)力的行動(dòng)中采用在表面上類似的模式，其路數(shù)往往也會(huì)存在深刻的不同。有些國家仔細(xì)考究過英國模式并從中學(xué)習(xí)，以便走出它們自己的富有創(chuàng)新性的獨(dú)特道路，而這是英國可以反過來學(xué)習(xí)的。

Brazil
Brazil is Latin America’s standout soft power.

【巴西篇】
巴西是拉丁美洲表現(xiàn)突出的軟實(shí)力力量。

It has even been described as the world’s first big soft power. 1 Even before the 2014 World Cup or 2016 Olympics, Brazil was attracting significant global attention and not just for football or carnival, Brazil’s rise has been peaceful and largely uncontroversial. Along with countries such as Canada and Germany it is generally perceived as a benign actor on the international stage.

該國甚至已經(jīng)被描述為全世界第一個(gè)軟實(shí)力大國。甚至早在2014年世界杯或是2016年奧運(yùn)會(huì)之前，巴西就吸引了全球的高度關(guān)注，而且不只是足球或狂歡節(jié)，巴西的崛起一直是和平的，而且很大程度上是不會(huì)引起爭議的。巴西與諸如加拿大和德國等國一道，在國際舞臺(tái)上普遍被視作一個(gè)良性的角色。

Brazil’s participation in the wider world is generally welcomed. It is respected both as a relatively stable democracy and for the economic achievements of the Lula years. Brazil draws interest from other states when it comes to creating and exporting innovative ways to alleviate poverty and foster a free society. However, ongoing political and economic instability and concerns over corruption have cast a shadow over Brazil’s international aspirations. Global broadcasts of the violent protests ahead of the 2016 Olympics tarnished what should have been a PR success. These factors have undermined what had been a solid programme
of public diplomacy and nation branding. However, the longer-term fundamentals remain undeniable. Brazil is the world’s eighth largest economy with vast reserves of natural resources. Despite the widely publicised political controversies that have overtaken the country, Brazil continues to score well in the Freedom House rankings – its vibrant civil society sector and free press in particular serving as a counterweight to the corruption in the political class.

巴西參與到更廣泛的世界事務(wù)中是受到普遍歡迎的。它因其相對穩(wěn)定的民主國家身份，以及盧拉主政年間的經(jīng)濟(jì)成就而受到尊重。巴西在創(chuàng)造和輸出富有創(chuàng)新性的扶貧方法以及培育自由社會(huì)方面，吸引了其他國家的興趣。然而，持續(xù)的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定以及對腐敗的擔(dān)憂給巴西的國際抱負(fù)蒙上了一層陰影。2016年奧運(yùn)會(huì)前夕暴力抗議的全球轉(zhuǎn)播，給本該成功的一次公關(guān)沾上了污點(diǎn)。這些因素已經(jīng)破壞了原本相當(dāng)可靠的公共外交以及國家品牌建設(shè)計(jì)劃。然而從長期看，其基本面仍是不容否認(rèn)的。巴西是世界第八大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，擁有巨額儲(chǔ)量的自然資源。盡管被廣泛曝光的政治論戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)讓這個(gè)國家不堪重負(fù)，巴西在自由之家排名中繼續(xù)得到高分，特別是其充滿活力的公民社會(huì)以及出版自由，對政治階層中的腐敗起到了平衡的作用。
（譯注：自由之家是一個(gè)國際性的非政府組織，創(chuàng)立于1941年，總部位于美國華盛頓，致力于民主、政治自由的研究和支持）
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Brazil’s growing interest in Africa has seen the launch of TV Brasil Internacional with bases in Rio and Maputo broadcasting to the lusophone world. Brazilian football and soap operas are keenly followed by the inhabitants of Portuguese-speaking Africa. Launched in 2010, TV Brasil was initially scheduled to broadcast to 49 African nations with plans then to roll it out to Latin America, North America and Europe. TV Brasil Internacional is only one element in an ambitious programme of international engagement. The Lula and Dilma governments saw significant investment in cultural diplomacy designed to bring Brazil to the world. Part of the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Itamaraty Cultural Department is organised in five units covering the promotion of: language; culture and cultural exchange; Brazilian cinema, television production and advertising; Brazilian policy and news; international liaison on culture with multilateral bodies; and international education. 2 The Itarmaraty operates Brazil’s Cultural Network. The Network is present in more than 40 countries in all continents but the main foci are lusophone Africa, Brazil’s Latin American neighbours and key G20 capitals. It consists of 24 Cultural Centers, five Nuclei of Study and around 40 readerships. The Centers promote the systematic teaching of the Portuguese language as spoken in Brazil; the diffusion of Brazilian literature; the distribution of information material about Brazil; the organisation of exhibitions of visual arts and theatrical performances; the co-edition and distribution of texts by national authors; the diffusion of erudite and popular music; the dissemination of Brazilian cinematography; and other forms of Brazilian cultural expression, such as lectures and seminars.

巴西對非洲的興趣與日俱增，巴西國際電視臺(tái)已經(jīng)開辦，總部位于里約熱內(nèi)盧和馬普托，面向葡語世界播送節(jié)目。非洲的葡語區(qū)居民熱衷于追看巴西的足球和肥皂劇。巴西電視臺(tái)創(chuàng)立于2010年。最初的計(jì)劃是向49個(gè)非洲國家播送節(jié)目，并有在之后鋪開到拉丁美洲、北美和歐洲的計(jì)劃。巴西國際電視臺(tái)只是其雄心勃勃的國際參與計(jì)劃中的一個(gè)要素而已。盧拉和迪爾瑪政府在文化外交中投入巨大，為的就是讓巴西走向世界。外交文化部是巴西外交部的一部分，由五個(gè)單位組成，它們負(fù)責(zé)推廣的是：語言、文化和文化交流；巴西電影電視和廣告產(chǎn)業(yè)；巴西政策和新聞；與多邊機(jī)構(gòu)的國際文化聯(lián)絡(luò)；以及國際教育。由巴西外交部來運(yùn)營巴西的文化網(wǎng)絡(luò)。該網(wǎng)絡(luò)存在于所有大洲上的40多個(gè)國家，但主要聚焦于非洲的葡語區(qū)、巴西在拉丁美洲的鄰國以及G20中關(guān)鍵國家的首都。它由24個(gè)文化中心、5個(gè)研究中心和大約40個(gè)讀者群組成。這些中心推動(dòng)了系統(tǒng)性的巴西葡語教學(xué)、巴西文學(xué)的傳播擴(kuò)散、有關(guān)巴西的信息材料的分發(fā)、視覺藝術(shù)展和文藝演出的組織、國民作家文稿的合作出版和分發(fā)、嚴(yán)肅音樂和流行音樂的傳播擴(kuò)散、巴西電影攝影的宣傳。以及其他形式的巴西文化表達(dá)，比如講座和研討會(huì)。
（譯注：馬普托，莫桑比克首都）

The Brazilian readers are university professors sexted through a public exam to act in foreign universities. During their time abroad, readers teach the Brazilian version of the Portuguese language and also work to promote themes related to cultural manifestations of Brazil. The Itamaraty operates programmes like New Voices of Brazil that promotes new Brazilian music as well as artistic exchanges. In partnership with the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, it delivered the Ciências sem Fronteiras (Science Without Borders) programme, that enabled young Brazilians to study at European and American universities, and now manages its successor PRINT. Brazil’s ambitions are evident in the numbers – between 2011 and 2016 Ciências sem Fronteiras granted more than 100,000 scholarships.

“巴西讀者”是通過公開考試選拔的大學(xué)教授，為的是去外國的大學(xué)中發(fā)揮作用。在身處海外期間，這些“讀者”教授巴西版本的葡萄牙語，也會(huì)開展工作去推廣一些和巴西的文化訴求有關(guān)的主題內(nèi)容。巴西外交部會(huì)運(yùn)作諸如“巴西新聲音”等節(jié)目，以推廣巴西新音樂以及藝術(shù)交流。通過和教育部以及科技與創(chuàng)新部的合作，外交部還拿出了“科學(xué)無國界”計(jì)劃，讓年輕的巴西人能去歐洲和美國大學(xué)求學(xué)，而且現(xiàn)正在運(yùn)作其后續(xù)計(jì)劃“PRINT”。巴西的雄心昭顯在了數(shù)字上，2011年至2016年，“科學(xué)無國界”批準(zhǔn)了10萬多筆獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金。

Brazil is the leading member of the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP), an increasingly integrated community of former colonies and states of the Portuguese Empire. The CPLP arguably has an energy that has been lacking in the more established Commonwealth of Nations. Collectively the membership is the world’s fourth largest producer of oil giving impetus to greater co-operation. Discussions between the members exploring deeper political and diplomatic co-operation including in matters of the seas, defence and trade are ongoing. Other non-lusophone states, including other G20 states like Japan, Turkey and Australia, have expressed interest in engagement with the CPLP through associate arrangements and observer status.

巴西是葡萄牙語國家共同體（CPLP）的主要成員，是一個(gè)由葡萄牙帝國前殖民地和下屬國家組成的、一體化程度日益加深的共同體。可以認(rèn)為，這個(gè)葡語國家共同體擁有認(rèn)可度更高的英聯(lián)邦所一直所缺乏的那種活力。這些成員加總起來就是全球第四大石油生產(chǎn)方，這樣它們就有了開展更大規(guī)模合作的動(dòng)力。在這些成員之間就深化政治和外交合作（包括海洋、防務(wù)和貿(mào)易問題）展開的討論正在進(jìn)行中。其他非葡語國家包括其他一些G20國家如日本、土耳其和澳大利亞已經(jīng)表達(dá)了興趣，希望通過商定伙伴關(guān)系以及觀察員身份的方式參與到葡語國家共同體中來。

The growing South–South co-operation evident in Brazil’s increasing engagement with its South Atlantic neighbours has passed largely unnoticed in the West. There is a risk of complacency among countries that have long relied on the attractiveness of their advanced economies, culture and values. For the growing economies of the Global South, neighbours and regional powers like Brazil, India and South Africa are often more attractive partners than former colonial powers. The power relationships between states tend to be more equitable, practical and without the risk of the patrician overtones of North–South interactions. While Brazil still has many challenges, its developmental experience is relatable and has much to offer other states looking to grow and diversify. There are valuable lessons to share, a sense of solidarity with other former colonies and the opportunity to enter into mutually beneficial partnerships rather than the donor–supplicant relationship that often characterises North–South relations. Brazil also offers a model of progress that embraces the values of freedom and self-determination that are so important to those that have fought for independence from European colonial powers.

南南合作的不斷擴(kuò)大，在巴西與南大西洋鄰國不斷增加的交往中是顯而易見的，而這在西方基本上沒有引起注意。那些長久以來仰賴發(fā)達(dá)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化和價(jià)值觀所帶來的吸引力的國家，在它們中間存在著自滿自足的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對于全球南方成長中的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，鄰國和地區(qū)強(qiáng)國比如巴西、印度和南非，相比于前殖民大國通常是更有吸引力的合作伙伴。國與國之間的這種權(quán)力關(guān)系往往更平等、更貼合實(shí)際，也不會(huì)有北南互動(dòng)中被自詡高貴的國家頤指氣使的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。雖然巴西仍面對很多挑戰(zhàn)，它的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)是可以引發(fā)共鳴的，也有很多經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以提供給其他尋求發(fā)展壯大和多樣化的國家。有一些寶貴的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)可以分享，一種與其他前殖民地國家團(tuán)結(jié)一致的意識(shí)，以及建立互利伙伴關(guān)系的良機(jī)，而不是變成北南關(guān)系中特有的捐贈(zèng)者和祈求者的關(guān)系。巴西也提供了一種進(jìn)步的模式，即信奉自由和自決的價(jià)值觀，而這對于那些曾為了從歐洲殖民大國手中爭取獨(dú)立進(jìn)行過斗爭的國家是如此的重要。