Futurists from the 20th century predicted that labor saving devices would make leisure abundant. According to the great economist John Maynard Keynes, the big challenge would be that…
“For the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.”
— John Maynard Keynes (1930)

20世紀(jì)的未來(lái)學(xué)家預(yù)言，節(jié)省勞力的設(shè)備將使休閑變得豐富多彩，根據(jù)偉大的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯的說(shuō)法，未來(lái)最大的挑戰(zhàn)將是.....
“自人類誕生以來(lái)，人類將第一次面臨一個(gè)真正的、永恒的問(wèn)題——如何利用自己從緊迫的經(jīng)濟(jì)憂慮中解脫出來(lái)的自由，如何利用科學(xué)和復(fù)利為自己贏得的閑暇時(shí)間，明智地、愉快地好好生活?！薄s翰·梅納德·凱恩斯 (1930年)

Fast forward almost a century later.
Things didn’t quite go as expected. This quote from a modern researcher captures the current ethos:
“Rather than being bored to death, our actual challenge is to avoid anxiety attacks, psychotic breakdowns, heart attacks, and strokes resulting from being accelerated to death.”
— Geoffrey West
Rather than inhabiting a world of time wealth, we’re inhabiting a world of time poverty. Rather than feeling the luxury of time freedom, we’re feeling the burden of constant hurry.

快進(jìn)到近一個(gè)世紀(jì)之后。
事情并沒有像預(yù)期的那樣發(fā)展，這句引自一位現(xiàn)代研究人員的話顯示了我們目前的處境：
“我們真正的挑戰(zhàn)不是無(wú)聊到死，而是要避免焦慮發(fā)作、精神崩潰、心臟病發(fā)作和加速至死的中風(fēng)?！?/b>

ー 杰弗里·韋斯特

我們生活在一個(gè)時(shí)間貧乏的世界，而不是生活在一個(gè)時(shí)間富裕的世界，我們沒有感受到時(shí)間自由的奢侈，而是感受到了持續(xù)匆忙的負(fù)擔(dān)。

What happened?
How did things turn out the exact opposite of what we were expecting?
More importantly, will the pace of life keep accelerating? And if it does, what are the implications (ie — can most people even cope)? What should we be doing now as knowledge workers to prepare for this future?
So, I spent over 100 hours reading the top 10 books related to these questions across the disciplines of sociology, technology, physics, evolution, business, and systems theory.

怎么回事呢？
事情怎么會(huì)和我們預(yù)期的完全相反 ？
更重要的是，人們的生活節(jié)奏會(huì)不斷加快嗎？如果是這樣的話，其影響 ( 即大多數(shù)人甚至能夠應(yīng)付 ) 是什么？
作為知識(shí)工作者，我們現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該做些什么來(lái)為這個(gè)未來(lái)做準(zhǔn)備？
因此，我花了超過(guò)100個(gè)小時(shí)閱讀與這些問(wèn)題相關(guān)的前10本書，橫跨社會(huì)學(xué)、技術(shù)、物理學(xué)、進(jìn)化論、商業(yè)和系統(tǒng)理論等學(xué)科。

I read Pressed for Time: The Acceleration of Life in Digital Capitalism by sociologist Judy Wajcman. I read The Sociology of Speed: Digital, Organizational, and Social Temporalities by ten sociologists. I read Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies by physicist turned polymath Geoffrey West. I reread The Singularity Is Near by technologist and futurist Ray Kurzweil. I read The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature by journalist Matt Ridley, PhD. I read about the Law Of Requisite Variety pioneered in the field of cybernetics. Finally, I read Competing Against Time: How Time-Based Competition is Reshaping Global Markets by management consultant George Stalk and Clockspeed: Winning Industry Control In The Age Of Temporary Advantage by MIT researcher Charles Fine.
While each of these researchers provide a different perspective, they point to the same fundamental root cause…

我讀了社會(huì)學(xué)家朱迪 · 瓦克曼的《時(shí)間緊迫: 數(shù)字資本主義生活的加速》；我讀了由十位社會(huì)學(xué)家撰寫的《速度社會(huì)學(xué)：數(shù)字化、組織化和社會(huì)暫時(shí)性》，我讀了《尺度:有機(jī)體、城市和公司中生命、增長(zhǎng)和死亡的普遍規(guī)律》，作者是物理學(xué)家出身的博學(xué)家杰弗里 · 韋斯特，我重讀了技術(shù)專家和未來(lái)學(xué)家雷·庫(kù)茲韋爾的《奇點(diǎn)迫近》，我讀了記者馬特 · 里德利博士的《紅皇后：性與人性的進(jìn)化》，我讀了在控制論領(lǐng)域具有開創(chuàng)性意義的《必要變化律》，我讀了管理學(xué)顧問(wèn)喬治·史塔克的《與時(shí)間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)：基于時(shí)間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)如何重塑全球市場(chǎng)》，最后，我還讀了麻省理工學(xué)院研究員查爾斯·費(fèi)恩的《 時(shí)鐘速度：在臨時(shí)優(yōu)勢(shì)時(shí)代贏得行業(yè)控制權(quán)》
雖然這些研究者各自提供了不同的視角，但他們都指出了相同的根本原因......

Time Is Accelerating Because Of The Red Queen Effect
At a fundamental level, life on earth must compete to stay alive. Predators and prey are in a never-ending race to evolve new abilities to avoid extinction. Rabbits that evolve longer ears to hear foxes survive more. Foxes that develop stronger legs to run faster catch more rabbits and don’t starve. And so on.
Matt Ridley, author of The Red Queen Effect, explains the tit for tat like this…
If a competitor makes an improvement, you must make an equal or greater improvement just to stay neck-and-neck with them. Stay the same and you fall behind.
Lauren Bacall said it even better…
“Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing world.”
— Lauren Bacall

時(shí)間加速是因?yàn)椤凹t皇后效應(yīng)”（The Red Queen Effect）
從根本上說(shuō)，地球上的生命必須為生存而競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，捕食者和獵物在永無(wú)止境的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中進(jìn)化出新的能力以避免滅絕。
兔子進(jìn)化出更長(zhǎng)的耳朵以聽到狐貍的聲音，就能因此活得更久，狐貍進(jìn)化出更強(qiáng)壯的腿，跑得更快，就能抓到更多的兔子，不會(huì)餓死，以此類推。
《 紅皇后效應(yīng) 》的作者馬特 · 雷德利這樣解釋這種針鋒相對(duì)的行......
如果競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手有所改進(jìn)，你必須做出同等或更大的改進(jìn)，才能與他們并駕齊驅(qū)，保持不變，你就會(huì)落后。
勞倫 · 巴考爾說(shuō)的更好：
" 在這個(gè)瞬息萬(wàn)變的世界里，站在原地不動(dòng)是倒退的最快方式。"
——?jiǎng)趥悺ぐ涂紶?/b>

In other words, evolution is a double-edged sword. On one hand, innovations increase survival. On the other hand, they also increase competition, which reduces survival.
Evolution does not rest on its laurels. It accelerates.
Enter humans.
With humans, we see a shift from competing based on biology to competing based on ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.).

換句話說(shuō)，進(jìn)化是一把雙刃劍。
一方面，變化增加了生存幾率，另一方面，它們也增加了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，從而降低了生存率。
進(jìn)化不會(huì)安于現(xiàn)狀，而是持續(xù)加速。
看回人類世界。
在人類身上，我們看到了從基于生物學(xué)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)到基于觀念 (文化、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)等) 的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的轉(zhuǎn)變。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


For example…
Companies compete for top talent. Employees compete for open positions.
Employees compete to move up the corporate ladder.
Companies compete for investors. Investors compete for the best startups.
Companies compete against each other via their products and services.
Scientists compete against each other for publication, citation, awards, and funding.
Everyone compe
tes for attention

比如說(shuō)：
公司爭(zhēng)奪頂尖人才，員工爭(zhēng)奪空缺職位。
員工們競(jìng)相攀登公司的階梯。
公司爭(zhēng)奪投資者，投資者爭(zhēng)奪最好的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。
公司通過(guò)他們的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
科學(xué)家們?yōu)榱顺霭妗⒁?、?jiǎng)項(xiàng)和資金而相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
每個(gè)人都在爭(zhēng)奪關(guān)注。

Just like evolution, when we evolve new technologies, things don’t slow down and become a utopia. Rather things get faster and more competitive.
Now, here’s where the big difference between biology and ideas is. While human biology evolves so slowly we don’t notice, ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.) evolve so quickly, we can’t keep up. Idea evolution is like biological evolution on steroids.
In other words, in a moment when many are already feeling overwhelmed by change, things are about to take off even faster. 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what it is now. Things will keep accelerating from there, and in 40 years, it will be 16x (more on these numbers later).

就像進(jìn)化一樣，當(dāng)我們進(jìn)化出新的技術(shù)時(shí)，事情不會(huì)慢下來(lái)，變成一個(gè)烏托邦，相反，事情變得越來(lái)越快，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)越來(lái)越激烈。
生物進(jìn)化和思想進(jìn)化的最大區(qū)別就在這里，雖然人類的生物進(jìn)化如此緩慢，但我們沒有注意到，思想(文化、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)等) 進(jìn)化得如此之快，我們跟不上。
思想的進(jìn)化就像是打了雞血的生物進(jìn)化。
換句話說(shuō)，在許多人已經(jīng)感到被變化壓倒的時(shí)刻，事情將以更快的速度發(fā)展。
20年后，變化率將是現(xiàn)在的4倍，事情將不斷加速發(fā)展，40年后，將達(dá)到16倍 ( 稍后將詳細(xì)討論這些數(shù)字 )。

What does this mean?
For many, 2020 felt like five years packed into one…
Historic pandemic
Historic social movement (Black Lives Matter)
Historic stimulus
Historic wildfires
Historic election
Historic stock market high
Historic technology breakthroughs (Alphafold / GPT-3 / Quantum Supremacy, etc)

這意味著什么？
對(duì)許多人來(lái)說(shuō)，2020年給人的感覺就像五年的時(shí)間擠在了一起......
歷史性的大流行
歷史性的社會(huì)運(yùn)動(dòng) ( 黑命貴 )
歷史性的刺激措施
歷史性的森林業(yè)火
歷史性的選舉
歷史性的股市高點(diǎn)
歷史性的技術(shù)突破 ( AlphaFold 算法/人工智能語(yǔ)言模型GPT-3/量子霸權(quán)等)

We saw once-in-a-generation events in nearly every sphere of life. Each of these events rippled throughout society leading to unpredictable second-order effects which upended our long-held beliefs about media, democracy, business, and citizenship to name a few. Our emotions went from positive to negative extremes as we faced unprecedented opportunities and challenges. We had to fundamentally rethink our lives, relationships, and work.
Here’s the thing though… 2020 isn’t a temporary blip before things go back to normal. It is the kickoff to an unprecedented acceleration that few have considered, let alone prepared for.

我們?cè)趲缀趺總€(gè)領(lǐng)域都看到了百年難一遇的事件，每一個(gè)事件都波及整個(gè)社會(huì)，導(dǎo)致不可預(yù)測(cè)的二階效應(yīng)，顛覆了我們長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)對(duì)媒體、民主、商業(yè)和公民權(quán)等方面的信念。
我們面臨前所未有的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)，我們的情緒從積極走向了消極的極端，我們不得不從根本上重新思考我們的生活、關(guān)系和工作。
但問(wèn)題是，2020年并不是一切恢復(fù)正常之前的一個(gè)短暫現(xiàn)象，而是一個(gè)前所未有的加速的開端，很少有人考慮到這一點(diǎn)，更不用說(shuō)為之做準(zhǔn)備了。

If time is like a treadmill, 2020 was running. The near-future will be an all out sprint.
How do we keep up?
To answer this question, let’s talk about…
The Coming Acceleration Shock
“If somebody describes the world of the mid-twenty-first century to you and it doesn’t sound like science fiction, it is certainly false. We cannot be sure of the specifics; change itself is the only certainty.”
— Yuval Noah Harari

如果說(shuō)時(shí)間就像跑步機(jī)，那么2020年就是在跑步，近期的未來(lái)將是一場(chǎng)全力沖刺。
我們?cè)鯓硬拍芨希?br /> 為了回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題，我們來(lái)談?wù)?...
即將到來(lái)的加速?zèng)_擊
“如果有人向你描述了二十一世紀(jì)中葉的世界，而且它聽起來(lái)不像科幻小說(shuō)，那么它肯定是錯(cuò)誤的，我們無(wú)法確定具體細(xì)節(jié)，變化本身是唯一確定的?！?/b>

ー赫拉利·諾亞·哈拉爾
While both biology and ideas evolve exponentially, exponential growth is fundamentally different at different stages of the curve. It starts off slowly, but when it hits the knee of the curve, it grows explosively and profoundly.
For example, one researcher charted the Gross World Product from 10,000 BCE to 2019 and came up with this chart…
We are now living in the second half of the curve. This is a big deal, because the second half feels and behaves in fundamentally different ways.

雖然生物進(jìn)化和思想進(jìn)化都是指數(shù)方式發(fā)展，但是指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)在曲線的不同階段有著根本的不同，它開始的時(shí)候很緩慢，當(dāng)它到達(dá)曲線的拐點(diǎn)時(shí)，它就會(huì)爆發(fā)性地、深刻地增長(zhǎng)。



例如，一位研究者將公元前1萬(wàn)年到2019年的世界生產(chǎn)總值繪制成圖表，得出了這個(gè)圖表：



我們現(xiàn)在生活在曲線的后半部分，這是個(gè)大問(wèn)題，因?yàn)楹蟀攵蔚母泄俸托袨榉绞礁静煌?/b>

Ray Kurzweil, the director of engineering at Google and arguably the world #1 futurist, breaks down what the second half of the exponential curve better than anyone else in his book, The Singularity Is Near.
Kurzweil’s basic premise is this…
“The future will be far more surprising than most people realize.”
The reason it’ll be more surprising, he argues, is, “because few observers have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating.” In other words, “an exponential curve looks like a straight line when examined for only a brief duration. As a result, even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, typically extrapolate the current pace of change over the next ten years or one hundred years to determine their expectations.”

雷·庫(kù)茲韋爾，谷歌的工程總監(jiān)，可以說(shuō)是世界第一的未來(lái)學(xué)家，在他的《奇點(diǎn)迫近》一書中，對(duì)指數(shù)曲線的后半部分進(jìn)行了比任何人都更好的分析。
庫(kù)茲韋爾的基本前提是：
“未來(lái)將比大多數(shù)人意識(shí)到的更令人驚訝?！?br /> 他認(rèn)為，之所以會(huì)更令人驚訝，是因?yàn)椤昂苌儆杏^察家真正內(nèi)化了變化速度本身正在加快這一事實(shí)的含義?！睋Q句話說(shuō)，“一條指數(shù)曲線在短時(shí)間內(nèi)看起來(lái)就像一條一條直線，因此，即使是老練的評(píng)論家，在考慮未來(lái)時(shí)，通常也只會(huì)推斷出未來(lái)十年或一百年當(dāng)前的變化速度，以符合他們的預(yù)期?！?/b>

Let’s break this down. When we look at a linear and exponential curve from a zoomed out perspective of more time, it’s easy to see the difference between the two curves…
However, when we zoom into a small duration, the differences look more like this. Notice that the difference is almost impossible to see.

我們來(lái)分析一下這個(gè)問(wèn)題，當(dāng)我們從更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間區(qū)間來(lái)看線性和指數(shù)曲線時(shí)，很容易看出兩條曲線之間的差異……然而，當(dāng)我們放大到一個(gè)小的持續(xù)時(shí)間段，差異看起來(lái)更像這樣：




請(qǐng)注意，這種差異幾乎幾乎看不出來(lái)。

For example, I was born in 1981. When I think about the pace of change, it is hard for me to compare the change I experienced in my lifetime to the change experienced during 1940–1980. It’s like comparing apples to oranges. Furthermore, when I look at the last 40 years, major events blend together. The pace changes, but then I get used to it. It is hard to feel the exponential nature either way. Sure, I can intellectually understand exponential change, but I don’t feel it.
Things get really interesting when Kurzweil shares the implications of this insight. It is the most profound, yet underappreciated idea from the book…

舉個(gè)例子，比如說(shuō)，我是1981年出生的，當(dāng)我思考變化的速度時(shí)，我很難將我一生中經(jīng)歷的變化與1940-1980年期間的變化進(jìn)行比較，這就像把蘋果和橘子進(jìn)行比較一樣。
當(dāng)我回顧過(guò)去40年，重大事件交織在一起，節(jié)奏變了，但我很習(xí)慣于此，不管怎樣，我們都很難感受到這種指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)的本質(zhì)，當(dāng)然，我理智上能理解指數(shù)變化，但我感覺不到。
庫(kù)茲韋爾分享了這一觀點(diǎn)的含義，事情變得非常有趣，這是書中最深刻但未被充分理解的觀點(diǎn)。

Introducing The 10-Year Rule
“My models show that we are doubling the paradigm-shift rate every decade.”
— Ray Kurzweil
This is the most interesting line in Kurzweil’s book in my opinion. This statement is profound, because it means the following…

"十年法則"
“我的模型顯示，每十年，我們的范式轉(zhuǎn)換率就會(huì)翻一番?！薄?庫(kù)茲韋爾
在我看來(lái)，這是庫(kù)茲韋爾書中最有意思的一句話，這句話意義深遠(yuǎn)，因?yàn)樗馕吨?/b>


To put this chart in context, 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what is now. Said differently, for someone who is about 40 today, when they’re 60 in 2040, the rate of paradigm change will be 4x what it is now. They will experience a year of change (by today’s standards) in three months. For someone who is 10 today, when they’re 60, they’ll experience a year of change in 11 days.
To summarize the profundity of this 10-year doubling rate, Kurzweil says…
“We won’t experience one hundred years of technological advance in the twenty-first century; we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (again, when measured by today’s rate of progress), or about one thousand times greater than what was achieved in the twentieth century.”

把這個(gè)圖表放在大背景下，20年后，變化率將是現(xiàn)在的4倍，換句話說(shuō)，對(duì)于今天40歲左右的人來(lái)說(shuō)，到2040年他們60歲時(shí)，范式改變的速度將是現(xiàn)在的4倍，以今天為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，他們將在三個(gè)月內(nèi)經(jīng)歷一年的變化，對(duì)于一個(gè)今天10歲的人來(lái)說(shuō)，當(dāng)他們60歲的時(shí)候，他們將在11天內(nèi)經(jīng)歷一年的變。
為總結(jié)這10年翻番速度的深刻性，庫(kù)茲韋爾說(shuō)：
"我們不會(huì)在21世紀(jì)經(jīng)歷100年的技術(shù)進(jìn)步，我們將見證2萬(wàn)年的進(jìn)步（同樣，這也是按今天的進(jìn)步速度來(lái)衡量），或者說(shuō)比20世紀(jì)的進(jìn)步大約1000倍?！?/b>

Let that sink in for a second.
So what exactly is a paradigm and how did Kurzweil come up with this rate?
To create the 10-Year Rule, Kurzweil plotted the largest milestones of biological and technological development on a single graph…
Kurzweil’s key events roughly mirror reference books that have compiled the most important historical events (Encyclopaedia Britannica, the American Museum of Natural History, Carl Sagan’s “cosmic calendar,” and others).

讓我們好好想一想。
那么，究竟為什么是這樣一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)變范式，庫(kù)茲韋爾是如何得出這個(gè)速度的？
為了創(chuàng)造 "十年法則"，庫(kù)茲韋爾將生物和技術(shù)發(fā)展的最大里程碑繪制在一張圖上：



庫(kù)茲韋爾的關(guān)鍵事件大致參考、反映了人類編纂的最重要?dú)v史事件的參考書 (《大英百科全書》、美國(guó)自然歷史博物館、卡爾·薩根《宇宙歷法》等)。

Of course, because there is a trend in the past, it doesn’t mean it will continue in the future. But, the way I see it, if a trend has existed on Earth for a billion years, it’s worth at least planning for the possibility that it will happen in the next 20 years.
And if you want to see how ridiculously predictable technological progress has been for the last 60 years, I recommend watching this video. It is awe-inspiring…
This quote captures the importance of Moore’s Law to the technology industry…
“If Silicon Valley has a heartbeat, it’s Moore’s Law,” — Rob Enderle
This all begs the question…
What would it mean to have the rate of paradigm changing events be 4x what it is now in 20 years?

當(dāng)然，過(guò)去有一種趨勢(shì)，并不一定意味著未來(lái)會(huì)繼續(xù)下去，但是，在我看來(lái)，如果一個(gè)趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)在地球上存在了10億年，那么至少值得為它在未來(lái)20年內(nèi)發(fā)生的可能性做打算。
如果你想知道在過(guò)去的60年里，技術(shù)進(jìn)步是多么的不可思議，我推薦你看這個(gè)視頻，令人驚嘆……



這個(gè)視頻體現(xiàn)了摩爾定律對(duì)科技行業(yè)的重要性……
"如果說(shuō)硅谷有心跳，那就是摩爾定律"——羅博·恩代爾
這就引出了一個(gè)問(wèn)題：
如果20年后范式改變的速度是現(xiàn)在的4倍，這意味著什么？

How To Prepare For The Coming Acceleration Shock
“When an industry is subjected to an important innovation, that industry typically feels a significant uptick in the overall clockspeed.”
— Charles Fine (MIT)
As I mentioned, the rapid evolution of human culture, ideas, strategies, and technology is a double-edged sword. On one hand, innovations increase efficiency. On the other hand, it also increases competition.

如何為即將到來(lái)的加速?zèng)_擊做好準(zhǔn)備
“當(dāng)一個(gè)行業(yè)面臨一項(xiàng)重大創(chuàng)新時(shí)，這個(gè)行業(yè)通常會(huì)感到自己的整體發(fā)展速度會(huì)有顯著提升?！薄闋査埂べM(fèi)恩
正如我上面提到的，人類文化、思想、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展是一把雙刃劍，一方面，創(chuàng)新可以提高效率，另一方面，它也增加了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


This happens on three levels:
Race against people. People and companies are using their efficiency gains to double down and gain further advantage thus increasing the competition even more. For example, in Silicon Valley, the epicenter of the tech, many of the smartest and wealthiest people in the world are working 60–80 hours per week and making sacrifices in their families, health and sleep in order to do so. Large salaries are put toward nannies, drivers, cleaners, and everything such that time at work can be maximized.

這發(fā)生在三個(gè)層面：
1. 人與人之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)
個(gè)人和公司都在利用他們的效率提升來(lái)加倍獲得進(jìn)一步的優(yōu)勢(shì)，從而更加加劇了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
例如，在科技中心硅谷，許多世界上最聰明、最富有的人每周工作60-80小時(shí)，并為此在家庭、健康和睡眠方面做出犧牲，大量的薪酬被花在了保姆、司機(jī)、清潔工和其他一切能讓工作時(shí)間最大化的事情上。

Race against machines. To compete on costs, companies are using robots and AI to eliminate jobs. In the economics literature, this is known as the race against machines. Many technologies automate old jobs and create the opportunities for new jobs. But, to take advantage of these opportunities, individuals must be able to “race” faster than machines by learning new skills. We see the harbingers of automation with cashierless stores (3.6M jobs in US) and autonomous vehicles (2M truck drivers in US) and robofactories (12M+ manufacturing jobs in US). These three job categories alone account for over 10% of the US workforce, and they’re almost guaranteed to precipitously downsize in the next 10 years.

2. 與機(jī)器賽跑
為了在成本上競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，企業(yè)利用機(jī)器人和人工智能來(lái)消除工作崗位，在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上，這被稱為與機(jī)器的競(jìng)賽。
技術(shù)使舊的工作自動(dòng)化，并為新的工作創(chuàng)造機(jī)會(huì)，但是，為了利用這些機(jī)會(huì)，個(gè)人必須能夠通過(guò)學(xué)習(xí)新技能，比機(jī)器更快地 "競(jìng)賽"。
我們從無(wú)人商店（ 美國(guó)有360萬(wàn)個(gè)收銀工作崗位）和自主汽車（美國(guó)有200萬(wàn)個(gè)卡車司機(jī)）以及機(jī)器人工廠（美國(guó)有1200多萬(wàn)個(gè)制造業(yè)工作崗位）看到了自動(dòng)化的先兆，這三類工作崗位就占了美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力的10%以上，而且?guī)缀蹩梢钥隙〞?huì)在未來(lái)10年內(nèi)會(huì)斷崖式地縮減。

Race against the world. Digitization has taken extreme competition to a whole other level. Rather than competing against the best in your local area, you’re competing against the best in the world. In other words, rather than competing against a small number of people, you’re competing against 1,000x the number of people. The result of global competition is that competition is exponentially more fierce and winner-take-all.

3. 與世界賽跑
數(shù)字化將極端競(jìng)爭(zhēng)提升到了另一個(gè)層面，與其說(shuō)是與當(dāng)?shù)氐馁吒?jìng)爭(zhēng)，不如說(shuō)是與世界上的佼佼者競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
換句話說(shuō)，與其說(shuō)你在和一小部分人競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，不如說(shuō)你在和1000倍的人競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的結(jié)果是，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)成倍地激烈，贏家通吃。

What does the extreme competition mean?
On the positive side, this increasing competition creates incredible innovation. As consumers, we have people racing to serve needs we didn’t even realize we had faster, cheaper, and better.
On the negative side, as workers, we are the ones racing to serve customers. It feels like we’re on a treadmill and that if we get off that treadmill to smell the roses of life for too long, we may fall irreparably behind. If there isn’t always a direct threat we can see, there is always the implied threat. For example, there is now a large literature of megacompanies who were disrupted by garage startups because their innovation rate slowed and their hubris swelled.

極端競(jìng)爭(zhēng)意味著什么?
從積極的方面來(lái)看，日益激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)創(chuàng)造了令人難以置信的創(chuàng)新，作為消費(fèi)者，人們競(jìng)相滿足我們的需求，而我們甚至沒有意識(shí)到我們擁有更快、更便宜、更好的服務(wù)。
消極的一面是，作為勞動(dòng)者，我們要爭(zhēng)先恐后地為顧客服務(wù)，這感覺就像我們?cè)谂懿綑C(jī)上，如果我們離開跑步機(jī)上去享受美好生活的時(shí)間太久，我們可能會(huì)無(wú)可挽回地落在后面，即使我們不能看到直接的威脅，那其中也一定有隱含的威脅，例如，現(xiàn)在有大量關(guān)于大型公司被車庫(kù)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司顛覆的案例，為他們的創(chuàng)新速度變慢，自大情緒膨脹。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Matt Ridley sums up the situation in this quote…
“One of the peculiar features of history is that time always erodes advantage. Every invention sooner or later leads to a counterinvention. Every success contains the seeds of its own overthrow. Every hegemony comes to an end. Evolutionary history is no different. Progress and success are always relative… In history and in evolution, progress is always a futile, Sisyphean struggle to stay in the same relative place by getting ever better at things.”
— Matt Ridley

馬特瑞德用這句話總結(jié)了這種情況：
" 歷史的一個(gè)特點(diǎn)是，時(shí)間總是侵蝕優(yōu)勢(shì)，每一項(xiàng)發(fā)明遲早都會(huì)導(dǎo)致相反的發(fā)明，每一次成功都包含著其自身被推翻的種子，每一個(gè)霸權(quán)都會(huì)走向終結(jié)，這便是進(jìn)化，進(jìn)步和成功總是相對(duì)的...... 在歷史和進(jìn)化中，進(jìn)步，即通過(guò)在某件事情上做得越來(lái)越好而停留在一個(gè)相對(duì)位置上，永遠(yuǎn)是徒勞的、掙扎的。"