網(wǎng)友討論：第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和第二次世界大戰(zhàn)是否本都可以避免？
Could both World War 1 and World War 2 have been prevented?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
導(dǎo)致第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的一連串事件是可以防止的，但...
正文翻譯
Could both World War 1 and World War 2 have been prevented?
第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和第二次世界大戰(zhàn)是否本都可以避免？
第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和第二次世界大戰(zhàn)是否本都可以避免？
評(píng)論翻譯
很贊 ( 2 )
收藏
, Practicing atheist
Originally Answered: Could both World War 1 and World War 2 be prevented?
The exact sequence of events that led to WW1 could be prevented, but …
Assasination of Franz Ferdinand
However even if Franz Ferdinant wasn’t assasinated, the entire German political apparatus was still eager to find an excuse to go to war against Russia. The reason why WW1 erupted after the assasination was because it served as a casus belli for Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia, which served as a reason for Russia to come to Serbian aid, which served as a reason for Germany to come to Austrian aid, which served as a reason for France and UK to come to Russian aid.
The web of alliances is as valid as they were with the assasination and these countries are eager to get into a war: Germany wanted to expand eastwards to take arable land and mineral wealth of western reaches of Russian empire, France was eager to exact their revenge upon Germany for the defeat in Franco-Prussian war and UK was eager to knock Germany down a notch or two.
You could prevent war from erupting in the summer of 1914, but it would just erupt later, over some other reason. Europe in the early 20th century was a tinderbox and a disaster waiting to happen, there was no way to solve the impasse without a war.
World War 2 is just a continuation of the same basic idea. It could be preventable, had Allies insisted on a strict peace treaty, not a lax truce at Versaillies.
導(dǎo)致第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的一連串事件是可以防止的，但...
刺殺弗朗茨-費(fèi)迪南事件
然而，即使弗朗茨-斐迪南沒(méi)有被暗殺，整個(gè)德國(guó)的政治機(jī)構(gòu)仍然急于尋找借口對(duì)俄羅斯開(kāi)戰(zhàn)。一戰(zhàn)之所以在刺殺事件后爆發(fā)，是因?yàn)樗蔀閵W匈帝國(guó)進(jìn)攻塞爾維亞的理由，這成為俄羅斯援助塞爾維亞的理由，也成為德國(guó)援助奧地利的理由，又成為法國(guó)和英國(guó)援助俄羅斯的理由。
聯(lián)盟之網(wǎng)與刺殺事件一樣有效，這些國(guó)家都渴望卷入戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。德國(guó)想向東擴(kuò)張，奪取俄羅斯帝國(guó)西部的耕地和礦產(chǎn)資源，法國(guó)急于對(duì)德國(guó)在普法戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的失敗進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)，英國(guó)則急于把德國(guó)打倒將其降低一兩個(gè)檔次。
你可以阻止戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)在1914年夏天爆發(fā)，但它也會(huì)因?yàn)槠渌蛟谝院蟊l(fā)。20世紀(jì)初的歐洲是一個(gè)火藥桶，是一個(gè)等待發(fā)生的災(zāi)難，沒(méi)有戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)就沒(méi)有辦法解決這個(gè)僵局。
第二次世界大戰(zhàn)只是同一基本理念的延續(xù)。如果盟國(guó)堅(jiān)持簽訂嚴(yán)格的和平條約，而不是在凡爾賽簽訂寬松的休戰(zhàn)協(xié)議，那么戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)就是不可以避免的。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Well, there is the theory, that a few years later, the war would have been impossible because of the increasing intertwining of the economies of the involved states.
有一種理論認(rèn)為，幾年后，由于有關(guān)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)日益交織在一起，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)就不可能發(fā)生了。
That was the theory to be the case ten years before the war already.
這是在戰(zhàn)前十年就有的理論。
This is why, after world war one, we never saw another war again.
這就是為什么在第一次世界大戰(zhàn)之后，我們?cè)僖矝](méi)有看到另一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Thank you! This comment made me laugh harder than all the comedy posts I’ve checked today combined.
謝謝你! 這條評(píng)論讓我笑得比我今天看的所有笑話的效果加起來(lái)還要厲害。
Well, I would say, that is why one of Hitler's most important economical aims was “Autarkie".
好吧，我想說(shuō)，這就是為什么希特勒最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)之一是 "Autarkie（自給自足）"。
If war was deferred by a few years, the newly industrialized Russia + France would have stomped Germant into the ground, regardless of UK or Italian neutrality.
如果戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)再推遲幾年，新的工業(yè)化的俄國(guó)+法國(guó)會(huì)把日耳曼人踩在腳下，不管英國(guó)或意大利站在哪一邊。
I think WW1 was the result of the movement towards nationalism in the late 19th century. While Britain and France and Russia have been countries for a while, Germany only became a country in 1871, Austria-Hungary formed in 1867, Romania in 1877, Serbia in 1882, and Italy in 1861. Note Belgium only separated from the Netherlands in 1839.
So, it’s possible that all of these states could have avoided war in the early 20th century, but they didn’t.
我認(rèn)為第一次世界大戰(zhàn)是19世紀(jì)末民族主義運(yùn)動(dòng)的結(jié)果。雖然英國(guó)和法國(guó)以及俄羅斯成為國(guó)家已經(jīng)有一段時(shí)間了，但德國(guó)在1871年才成為國(guó)家，奧匈帝國(guó)在1867年形成，羅馬尼亞在1877年，塞爾維亞在1882年，意大利在1861年。注意比利時(shí)在1839年才從荷蘭分離出來(lái)。
因此，所有這些國(guó)家都有可能在20世紀(jì)初避免戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，但他們沒(méi)有這樣做。
I agree that nationalism was the reason for WW1. But I believe Austria-Hungary was the anomaly, since it consisted of several nationalities, slavs of different languages, hungarians, italians, and germanspeaking austrian. Under the pressure of nationalism in its parts it would implode eventually. All the other big powers gather like vultures to expand their influence when that would happen. So that was the situation when the duke was shot. At that point Austria put unmeetable demands on Serbia and the war erupted.
Interestingly enough we had a similar situation when Sovjet fell apart 30 years ago. In my opinion all countries involved did show restraint in their quest for influence and large conflict has been avoided. It can be argued that the situation now is unfair, but a great war has been avoided and for that I am grateful.
我同意民族主義是一戰(zhàn)的原因。但我認(rèn)為奧匈帝國(guó)是一個(gè)反常的國(guó)家，因?yàn)樗蓭讉€(gè)民族組成的，包括不同語(yǔ)言的斯拉夫人、匈牙利人、意大利人和講德國(guó)話的奧地利人。在其各部分的民族主義的壓力下，它最終會(huì)內(nèi)爆。當(dāng)這種情況發(fā)生時(shí)，所有其他大國(guó)都會(huì)像禿鷹一樣聚集在一起，分而食之?dāng)U大自己的影響力。所以，這就是公爵被槍殺時(shí)的情況。這時(shí)，奧地利對(duì)塞爾維亞提出了無(wú)法滿足的要求，于是戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)爆發(fā)了。
有趣的是，30年前蘇聯(lián)解體時(shí)，我們也有類似的情況。在我看來(lái)，所有相關(guān)國(guó)家在追求影響力方面確實(shí)表現(xiàn)出了克制，大規(guī)模的沖突也得以避免。可以說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在的情況是不公平的，但一場(chǎng)大戰(zhàn)被避免了，為此我很感激。
“ But I believe Austria-Hungary was the anomaly, since it consisted of several nationalities, slavs of different languages, hungarians, italians, and germanspeaking austrian. Under the pressure of nationalism in its parts it would implode eventually.”
Isn't the same true for the British Empire?
“但我認(rèn)為奧匈帝國(guó)是一個(gè)反常的國(guó)家，因?yàn)樗蓭讉€(gè)民族組成的，包括不同語(yǔ)言的斯拉夫人、匈牙利人、意大利人和講德國(guó)話的奧地利人。在其各部分的民族主義的壓力下，它最終會(huì)內(nèi)爆?！?br /> 大英帝國(guó)不也是這樣嗎？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
I think WW2 could have been prevented. Unlike WW1,it was only Germany under Hitler that wanted a rematch. Another leader could have stirred Germany off the warpath.
Everyone else had had enough of war in WW1 and other wars like the Russian civil war,Russia-Poland war,Greco-Turkish war, etc. Even the USSR didn't seem to want a war but I could be wrong. Italy wanted a war but couldn't and wouldn't do anything in Europe without Germany's help. Without WW2 they would have stuck to conquering Ethiopia. Similarly Japan wouldn't have attacked Pearl Harbor,the Philippines and European colonies in Asia if Germany didn't support them or atleast kept these powers busy elsewhere. Other than these countries no one else wanted a war.So without Hitler and Germany,at best(or worst) you could have a war in the East.
我認(rèn)為第二次世界大戰(zhàn)本來(lái)是可以避免的。與一戰(zhàn)不同的是，只有希特勒領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的德國(guó)想要進(jìn)行重賽。如果是另一位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在位則可以把德國(guó)從戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的道路上帶回去。
其他國(guó)家在一戰(zhàn)和其他戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中已經(jīng)受夠了戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，如俄國(guó)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、俄國(guó)-波蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、希臘-土耳其戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)等。甚至蘇聯(lián)似乎也不希望發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，但我可能是錯(cuò)的。意大利想要一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，但如果沒(méi)有德國(guó)的幫助，它不能也不會(huì)在歐洲掀起什么波瀾。如果沒(méi)有第二次世界大戰(zhàn)，他們會(huì)堅(jiān)持征服埃塞俄比亞。同樣，如果沒(méi)有德國(guó)的支持，日本也不會(huì)襲擊珍珠港、菲律賓和歐洲在亞洲的殖民地，或者至少會(huì)讓這些大國(guó)在其他地方保持忙碌。除了這些國(guó)家之外，沒(méi)有人希望發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。因此，如果沒(méi)有希特勒和德國(guó)，在最好的情況下（或最壞的情況下），只有東方會(huì)發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
Whoa.. France get butt hurt easily.
哇......法國(guó)人這么容易急眼嗎。
Franco-Pru?ian war was devastating though. Not only was the loss of the war humiliating, but German ownership of el?as-lothringen served as a constant reminder of the defeat. France kinda needed revenge. Just like Germany did after WW1. At least, that's how they felt
法國(guó)-普魯士戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是毀滅性的。不僅戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的失利令人羞愧，而且德國(guó)對(duì)阿爾薩斯-洛林的所有權(quán)也時(shí)刻提醒著人們失敗的原因。法國(guó)有點(diǎn)急于復(fù)仇。就像德國(guó)在一戰(zhàn)后所做的那樣。至少，他們是這樣認(rèn)為的。
Well, it was a German speaking province that had not been with France for very long.
怎么說(shuō)呢，這是一個(gè)講德語(yǔ)的省份，與法國(guó)在一起的時(shí)間并不長(zhǎng)。
, Growing our own food for taste, pleasure and saving money
Yes.
World war two was effectively a continuation of WW1, so by preventing the first one, we prevent the second.
Looking in detail at WW1.
Between the mess of alliances, treaties and the like between various small countries and assorted great powers, Europe fell into war by accident and stupidity.
The war couldn’t have happened before 1913. The central powers could be easily cut off from Nitrate imports, and it wasn’t until 1913 and the Harber process that we could synthesis ammonia, and so nitrates. No nitrates, no explosives or propellents, no world war.
At the same time, Russia was industrialising rapidly, and building railways. Without the extra stresses of WW1, the Czar remains in charge for at least long enough to carry out these plans.
The Central powers wanted to avoid a two front war where the Russians had industrialised too, as they rightly saw it as suicide.
So we’re looking at a 10–15 year window, where if diplomacy and just a little little luck holds, we get past the time when WW1 is possible.
Putting on my really cynical hat, one way to keep Germany happy would be to look at where in the world there was left for the great powers to carve up.
Germany was late for this course, and missed out on plum pudding
But got to take part in this one.
And a nice slice of Turkey as well
Give Germany an extra helping in either of the later courses, and it stays happy until the risk of war has passed.
是的，可以避免。
第二次世界大戰(zhàn)實(shí)際上是第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的延續(xù)，所以通過(guò)防止第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的發(fā)生，我們可以防止第二次世界大戰(zhàn)。
詳細(xì)地回看一下一戰(zhàn)。
在各種小國(guó)和各種大國(guó)之間混亂的聯(lián)盟、條約等之間，歐洲因意外和愚蠢而陷入戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)不可能在1913年之前發(fā)生。主要大國(guó)可以很容易地切斷硝酸鹽的進(jìn)口，直到1913年有了哈伯工藝，我們才可以合成氨，從而合成硝酸鹽。沒(méi)有硝酸鹽，就沒(méi)有炸藥或推進(jìn)劑，就沒(méi)有世界大戰(zhàn)。
與此同時(shí)，俄羅斯正在迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)化，并修建鐵路。沒(méi)有一戰(zhàn)的額外壓力，沙皇至少有足夠長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間仍然可以負(fù)責(zé)實(shí)施這些計(jì)劃。
主要大國(guó)希望避免俄國(guó)人也工業(yè)化之后的兩線作戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)樗麄兒苷_地認(rèn)識(shí)到那是自殺。
因此，我們正在尋找一個(gè)10-15年的窗口，在那里，如果外交手段足夠靈活和保持多一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)的運(yùn)氣，我們就可以度過(guò)這個(gè)窗口，第一次世界大戰(zhàn)就可能被避免了。
我再憤世嫉俗一點(diǎn)，讓德國(guó)高興的一個(gè)辦法是看看世界上還有什么地方可以讓大國(guó)瓜分。
德國(guó)在這個(gè)過(guò)程中遲到了，錯(cuò)過(guò)了摘桃子的機(jī)會(huì)
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
但還是參了這邊一腿
還有可口的土耳其
在后面的過(guò)程中，給德國(guó)多一份幫助，它就會(huì)保持快樂(lè)，直到戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過(guò)去。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
There was also an element of “revanchisme” and wanting to go to war, the French wanted to recapture Alsace Lorraine which had been lost in the catastrophic Franco-Prussian war of 1870
還有一個(gè)因素是"復(fù)仇主義"想要開(kāi)戰(zhàn)，法國(guó)人想奪回在1870年災(zāi)難性的普法戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中失去的阿爾薩斯-洛林。
True! But, the longer Germany holds it, the more it becomes El?as-Lothringen and the more the memory of French alssase-Lorraine fades. If by 1950, the majority of Europe's borders are the same as they were in 1914 (with perhaps the exception of an independent Ireland, and maybe a broken-up Austria-Hungary), I think everything would really settle into place for good. And as Europe transitioned towards something like the EU or mitteleuropa it was always going to become more connected and the borders don't matter as much anyway
確實(shí)！但是，德國(guó)持有它的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，它就越成為德國(guó)的El?as-Lothringen，對(duì)往日作為法國(guó)的alssase-Lorraine的記憶就越淡。如果到了1950年，歐洲的大部分邊界與1914年一樣（也許只有獨(dú)立的愛(ài)爾蘭和可能解體的奧匈帝國(guó)除外），我想一切都會(huì)真正地穩(wěn)定下來(lái)。隨著歐洲向歐盟或米特羅巴這樣的政體過(guò)渡，它會(huì)變得越來(lái)越緊密相連，而且邊界也不那么重要了。
For Ireland and Scotland, a Home Rule bill had passed the UK parliament in 1914,but it wasn’t put into effect due to WW1. If it had passed a year earlier, or the war started a year later, you’d almost certainly be looking at a united island of Ireland, which could plausibly be inside or outside the UK.
對(duì)于愛(ài)爾蘭和蘇格蘭來(lái)說(shuō)，1914年英國(guó)議會(huì)通過(guò)了一項(xiàng)自治法案，但由于一戰(zhàn)而沒(méi)有付諸實(shí)施。如果法案早一年通過(guò)，或者戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)晚一年開(kāi)始，你幾乎肯定會(huì)看到一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的愛(ài)爾蘭島，它可能處于英國(guó)境內(nèi)或境外。
Or, without Bismarck and Prussia leading German unification, you get a less militaristic Germany, that unifies later, also avoiding WWI. Heck, if the Kaiser who only served 99 days lived a normal lifespan, it might have been avoided.
或者，如果沒(méi)有俾斯麥和普魯士領(lǐng)導(dǎo)德國(guó)的統(tǒng)一，你會(huì)得到一個(gè)不那么軍國(guó)主義的德國(guó)，遲一點(diǎn)再統(tǒng)一，也就避免了第一次世界大戰(zhàn)。哎呀，如果只在位99天的那位德皇有正常的壽命，可能都能避免了。
Yes. We’d probably need to remove Bismarck from history to maybe avoid WW1 or make it much more limited.
Even then it is doubtful because at the time so many rulers were itching to play with their new impressive (read: unprecedentedly destructive) military toys!
是的。我們可能需要將俾斯麥從歷史中刪除，以避免第一次世界大戰(zhàn)，或使其發(fā)揮的作用更加有限。
即使如此，這也是值得懷疑的，因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)那么多統(tǒng)治者都迫不及待地想試試他們新的令人印象深刻（讀作：前所未有的破壞性）的軍事玩具
On the other hand if Bismarck got what he wanted the war would also be avoided. Bismarck first and foremost wanted a united Germany that could defend itself from its neighbors. He did not WANT a war. The idea of a “militaristic Prussia” is not based in myth, but is taken to extreme lengths. Prussia was no more militaristic than Napoleonic France or Czarist Russia. Had Bismarck been in power at the onset of WW1 he likely would not have sided with Austria-Hungary.
另一方面，如果俾斯麥得到了他想要的東西，那么戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)也會(huì)被避免。俾斯麥?zhǔn)紫认Ｍ幸粋€(gè)統(tǒng)一的德國(guó)，能夠抵御鄰國(guó)的入侵。他并不希望發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。關(guān)于"軍國(guó)主義的普魯士"的說(shuō)法并非空穴來(lái)風(fēng)，只是被推向了極端。普魯士的軍國(guó)主義程度并不比拿破侖法國(guó)或沙皇俄國(guó)高。如果俾斯麥在一戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)時(shí)掌權(quán)，他很可能就不會(huì)站在奧匈帝國(guó)一邊了。
Probably true, he'd have avoided a pointless navel arms race that Germany could never win as well. He said that Germany should be allied with at least two other European powers, one of which should be Russia. But, the king dies, then his son dies 99 days later, and the new king is someone Bismarck never bothered to build a positive relationship with, so out of power he went, leaving a unified Germany.
可能是這樣，他也會(huì)避免一場(chǎng)德國(guó)永遠(yuǎn)不可能贏得的無(wú)意義的臍帶軍備競(jìng)賽。他說(shuō)，德國(guó)應(yīng)該至少與另外兩個(gè)歐洲大國(guó)結(jié)盟，其中一個(gè)應(yīng)該是俄國(guó)。但是，國(guó)王死了，99天后他的兒子也死了，而新國(guó)王是一個(gè)俾斯麥從未費(fèi)心與之建立積極關(guān)系的人，所以他下臺(tái)了，留下一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的德國(guó)。
I’m not so sure , even with those territories Germany would still play behind France and the uk. The real reason the Wilhelm wish for Germany to have an empire was for it to have ‘its place in the sun’. This just would not be satisfied.
我不太確定這會(huì)奏效，即使有了這些領(lǐng)土，德國(guó)仍然會(huì)排在法國(guó)和英國(guó)的后面。威廉希望德國(guó)擁有一個(gè)帝國(guó)的真正原因是希望它有"陽(yáng)光下的位置"。這一點(diǎn)是不會(huì)被滿足的。
, I have an associates degree in history, as well as intensive scholarship
Absolutely. While Europe was a tinderbox, that spark could have been avoided. More prudence on on the Habsburgs and Serbs part and there’s no cassius belli. Germany and France wanted their rematch but had to wait for the Balkans to heat up as an excuse. No excuse and they lose their allies and risk total defeat.
Better leadership in any of the powers involved and they wouldnt’ have blundered into the war. Pan-Slavism at the same time as Russian industrial weakness, German imperial aggression, French revenge, British international policing, Austrian resurgence, Balkan defiance, led to the war.
Wilhelm was a cocky bully. Nicholas an arrogant buffoon. Poincaré a greedy tyrant. Asquith a callous weakling. Franz Joseph lazy and pompous. Better leadership could have prevented this.
完全可以避免。雖然歐洲是一個(gè)火藥桶，但這個(gè)火花是可以避免的。哈布斯堡家族和塞爾維亞人更謹(jǐn)慎一些，他們也沒(méi)有什么真的過(guò)不去的。德國(guó)和法國(guó)想再戰(zhàn)，但不得不等待巴爾干半島升溫作為借口。沒(méi)有借口，他們就會(huì)失去他們的盟友，并有徹底失敗的危險(xiǎn)。
任何一個(gè)大國(guó)如果有更好的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，他們就不會(huì)貿(mào)然參戰(zhàn)。泛斯拉夫主義與俄國(guó)的工業(yè)弱點(diǎn)、德意志帝國(guó)的侵略、法國(guó)的報(bào)復(fù)、英國(guó)的國(guó)際警務(wù)、奧地利的復(fù)活、巴爾干的反抗等因素同時(shí)導(dǎo)致了戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
威廉是一個(gè)狂妄的惡棍。尼古拉是一個(gè)傲慢的小丑。龐加萊是個(gè)貪婪的暴君。阿斯奎特是個(gè)冷酷無(wú)情的弱者。弗朗茨-約瑟夫懶惰而浮夸。更好的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)可以避免這種情況。
, Voracious reader of biography and history
Doubtful. By the late 1800’s, in large part due to events like the industrial revolution, the feudal system that had functioned across Europe and Asia for thousands of years was falling apart. The major empires were slowly falling apart. WWI was fundamentally about the collapse of the major empires (Britain, Russia, Ottoman, Austria-Hungary) and the restructuring of the remnants.
WWII in EUROPE can be directly traced to the brutal reparations required of Germany by the Treaty of Versailles. Germany was in economic disaster, and the only path out they saw was to go after those who caused the disaster. So, it would have been possible to have Versailles designed in such a way that Germany didn’t starve—which could have prevented much of the European side of WWII.
WWII in Asia-Pacific was fundamentally about Japan wanting to out-Britain the British and establish a massive empire of their own on that side of the planet.
我對(duì)此表示懷疑。到19世紀(jì)末，在很大程度上由于工業(yè)革命等事件，在歐洲和亞洲運(yùn)行了數(shù)千年的封建制度正在瓦解。各大帝國(guó)都在慢慢瓦解。一戰(zhàn)從根本上講是關(guān)于主要帝國(guó)（英國(guó)、俄羅斯、奧斯曼、奧匈帝國(guó)）的崩潰和殘余的重組。
歐洲的二戰(zhàn)可以直接追溯到《凡爾賽條約》要求德國(guó)進(jìn)行的殘酷賠償。德國(guó)當(dāng)時(shí)處于經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難之中，他們能看到的唯一出路是對(duì)那些造成這個(gè)災(zāi)難的人下手。因此，本來(lái)可以通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)凡爾賽條約使德國(guó)不至于過(guò)于悲慘--這就可以避免二戰(zhàn)中歐洲方面的許多事情。
亞太地區(qū)的二戰(zhàn)從根本上說(shuō)是日本想超越英國(guó)人，在地球的那一邊建立一個(gè)屬于自己的龐大帝國(guó)。
, Quora's Angry Con-Prog
Pre-WW1 Europe was a powder keg ready to explode at any moment.
Basically, almost ever every power in Europe had had some recent embarrassment on the international stage, wherein they’d had to betray a minor ally in order to save some larger obxtive. And each one’s leaders had vowed to themselves “not next time”. Next time, they would stand tall and redeem their national honor. The opposition would be defeated quickly by this moment of sheer resolve.
When everyone in a bar fight is trying to make up for the embarrassment of losing the previous bar fight, and no one is strong enough to KO the rest in the first punch, you just end up with a bunch of idiots pummeling each other into a bloody pulp for hours.
That’s WW1. And to wit, even preventing the assassination of the archduke wouldn’t have stopped a war. Europe was in an era of profound political turbulence. Revolutionaries were agitating left and right, and political assassinations were a dime a dozen. It would only have been a matter of time until some other assassination or crisis would have sparked the war off.
If by some miracle no spark ever arose, it would have taken at least 20–30 spark-less years for the underlying political crises to resolve and leaderships to change enough that no war was possible anymore.
WW2 was mostly predicated on the outcome of WW1. It could possibly have been prevented by a less egregious Treaty of Versailles, but that’s a pretty tall order. It’s hard to understand today, with fascism having been completely discredited, but Europe was only just then starting to emerge from millennia of authoritarian thought. Fascism really wasn’t all that much of a stretch from pervasive and deeply entrenched right-wing attitudes about authority, the family, power, and violence. It took two apocalyptic wars to discredit it! At the time, it probably seemed like just a secularist extension of the same right-wing values that had kept monarchy and feudalism intact for so long.WW1 was sparked off by the underlying thirst for extreme solutions to the failures of the traditional European state at managing the outcomes of the Industrial Revolution. Over time, it became apparent that Com...ism and fascism were the two most popular of those extrema, and because entrenched power has traditionally been more fearful of the extreme left than the extreme right, fascism won the opportunity to make its case, which it horrifically did in WW2.Liberal democracy ended both wars. At the end of the day, it’s likely that liberal democracy would have been the key to preventing them. Sadly, what actually happened was that liberal democracy wasn’t yet strong enough to do so.
一戰(zhàn)前的歐洲是一個(gè)火藥桶，隨時(shí)都會(huì)爆炸。
基本上，歐洲的每一個(gè)大國(guó)最近都在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上遇到了一些尷尬，他們不得不背叛一個(gè)小盟友，以挽救一些大的目標(biāo)。每個(gè)國(guó)家的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都對(duì)自己發(fā)誓 "下不為例"。下一次，他們要挺身而出，挽回他們的國(guó)家榮譽(yù)。反對(duì)這一立場(chǎng)的人將被這一刻純粹的決心迅速擊垮。
當(dāng)在酒吧打架的每個(gè)人都想彌補(bǔ)在之前的酒吧打架中輸?shù)舻膶擂?，又沒(méi)有人強(qiáng)大到可以在第一拳中KO其他人，你能得到的結(jié)果就只是以一群白癡互相把對(duì)付打得鼻青臉腫頭破血流而告終。
這就是第一次世界大戰(zhàn)。說(shuō)起來(lái)，即使防止大公被暗殺也不會(huì)阻止戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的發(fā)生。當(dāng)時(shí)的歐洲正處于一個(gè)深刻的政治動(dòng)蕩的時(shí)代。革命者在左右逢源，政治暗殺事件層出不窮。遲早會(huì)有其他刺殺事件或危機(jī)引發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
如果奇跡般地沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)火花，那么至少需要20-30年也沒(méi)有火花的時(shí)間來(lái)解決潛在的政治危機(jī)和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的變化，以至于不再可能發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
第二次世界大戰(zhàn)主要是以第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的結(jié)果為前提的。它有可能被一個(gè)不那么嚴(yán)酷的《凡爾賽條約》所阻止，但這是一個(gè)相當(dāng)高的要求。今天的我們很難理解，在當(dāng)今世界法西斯主義已經(jīng)完全失去了信譽(yù)，但歐洲當(dāng)時(shí)才剛剛開(kāi)始從幾千年的專制思想中走出來(lái)。法西斯主義從普遍和根深蒂固的右翼權(quán)威、家庭、權(quán)力和暴力的態(tài)度中走出來(lái)，真的不是那么容易擊破的。兩次世界末日的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)才使它失去了信譽(yù)！在當(dāng)時(shí)，它可能被認(rèn)為是最重要的意識(shí)形態(tài)。在當(dāng)時(shí)，它可能只是一個(gè)世俗主義的延伸，同樣的右翼價(jià)值觀使君主制和封建主義保持了這么久。
第一次世界大戰(zhàn)是由對(duì)傳統(tǒng)歐洲國(guó)家在管理工業(yè)革命成果方面的失敗的極端解決方案的潛在渴求引發(fā)的。隨著時(shí)間的推移，共產(chǎn)主義和法西斯主義顯然是這些極端主義中最受歡迎的兩種，而且由于根深蒂固的權(quán)力歷來(lái)相比極右翼更害怕極左翼，所以法西斯主義贏得了證明自己的機(jī)會(huì)，它在第二次世界大戰(zhàn)中可怕地做到了。
自由民主結(jié)束了這兩場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。說(shuō)到底，自由民主很可能是防止這些戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的關(guān)鍵。可悲的是，實(shí)際發(fā)生的情況是，自由民主還沒(méi)有強(qiáng)大到足以做到這一點(diǎn)。
, Have read a lot of books on history and enjoy it
Virtually any historical outcome is preventable in hindsight.
If you prevent WWI, you prevent WW2 from happening if by no other fact that you can’t have a second world war if you don’t have a first.
The best way to prevent WWI is to prevent Wilhelm from becoming Kaiser, or at the very least moderating his views. The latter was nearly impossible, so the former is the better option. The only question is how to prevent Wilhelm from becoming Kaiser in a way that doesn’t inflame already inflamed passions such as existed in pre-WWI Europe.
事后諸葛亮來(lái)看，幾乎任何歷史結(jié)果都是可以預(yù)防的。
如果你能防止第一次世界大戰(zhàn)，你就能防止第二次世界大戰(zhàn)的發(fā)生，如果沒(méi)有其他的事實(shí)，如果你沒(méi)有第一次世界大戰(zhàn)，你就不可能有第二次世界大戰(zhàn)。
防止第一次世界大戰(zhàn)的最好辦法是防止威廉成為德皇，或者至少是緩和他的觀點(diǎn)。后者幾乎不可能，所以前者是更好的選擇。唯一的問(wèn)題是，如何防止威廉成為德皇，而又不激起已經(jīng)被激起的激情，例如在一戰(zhàn)前的歐洲存在的各種激烈情緒。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
He almost didn’t!
His brother was due to become Kaiser earlier on but he had a toothache which the diagnosed as minor but actually had mouth cancer and the doctors waited too long and he passed away prematurely!
His character and disposition was completely different from his brother who unfortunately became the warlike Kaiser!
他差點(diǎn)就與王位無(wú)緣!
他的哥哥本應(yīng)在早些時(shí)候成為凱撒，但他的牙痛被診斷為小病，但實(shí)際上是口腔癌，醫(yī)生等得太久，使他過(guò)早地離開(kāi)了人世！
他的性格和氣質(zhì)與他的哥哥完全不同，他哥哥的不幸成使其有幸成為一個(gè)好戰(zhàn)的凱撒!