For millennia, people across the globe have reported alarmed animal behaviour in the run-up to natural disasters. Could these signals be used to warn us of impending catastrophes?

幾千年來(lái)，世界各地都有傳言在自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生前，動(dòng)物會(huì)有驚恐的行為。我們能否利用這些信號(hào)來(lái)預(yù)警即將發(fā)生的災(zāi)難？

In 2004, a tsunami triggered by a 9.1 magnitude undersea quake off Indonesia decimated coastal communities around the Indian Ocean, killing at least 225,000 people across a dozen countries. The huge death toll was in part caused by the fact that many communities received no warning.

2004年，印尼沿海發(fā)生9.1級(jí)海底地震，引發(fā)的海嘯給印度洋周邊的沿海社區(qū)造成了嚴(yán)重破壞，導(dǎo)致十多個(gè)國(guó)家至少22.5萬(wàn)人遇難，傷亡慘重的部分原因是許多社區(qū)沒(méi)有收到預(yù)警。

Local manmade early warning systems, such as tidal and earthquake sensors, failed to raise any clear alx. Many sensors were out of action due to maintenance issues, while many coastal areas lacked any tsunami siren warning systems. Haphazard communication also failed to provide warnings, with many text messages failing to reach mobiles in threatened areas or going unread.

當(dāng)?shù)氐娜嗽祛A(yù)警系統(tǒng)并未發(fā)出明確的警報(bào)，例如潮汐和地震傳感器。許多傳感器由于維護(hù)不當(dāng)而失靈，許多社區(qū)根本沒(méi)有海嘯預(yù)警系統(tǒng)?；靵y的通信也沒(méi)有提供預(yù)警，許多短信無(wú)法送達(dá)災(zāi)區(qū)的手機(jī)上，或者沒(méi)被看到。

Yet in the minutes and hours before surging walls of water up to 9m (30ft) high smashed through coastlines, some animals seemed to sense impending peril and make efforts to flee. According to eyewitness accounts, elephants ran for higher ground, flamingos abandoned low-lying nesting areas, and dogs refused to go outdoors. In the coastal village of Bang Koey in Thailand, locals reported a herd of buffalo by the beach suddenly pricking their ears, gazing out to sea, then stampeding to the top of a nearby hill a few minutes before the tsunami struck.

但是，在9米（30英尺）高的洶涌水墻沖破海岸線前幾分鐘和前幾小時(shí)，有些動(dòng)物好像覺(jué)察到了即將到來(lái)的危險(xiǎn)，并且?jiàn)^力逃脫。據(jù)目擊者描述，大象往高地跑，火烈鳥(niǎo)逃離低洼棲息地，家狗不愿出門(mén)。在泰國(guó)沿海村莊Bang Koey，當(dāng)?shù)赜袀餮栽诤[來(lái)襲前幾分鐘，海邊有一群水牛突然豎起耳朵，遙望大海，隨后奔向附近的山頭。

"Survivors also reported seeing animals, such as cows, goats, cats and birds, deliberately moving inland shortly after the earthquake and before the tsunami came," says Irina Rafliana, previously part of an advisory group for the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk (UNISDR) and now a researcher at the German Development Institute in Bonn. "Many of those who survived ran along with these animals or immediately after."

“幸存者也曾說(shuō)，在地震不久后和海嘯來(lái)襲前，看到牛、羊、貓、鳥(niǎo)等動(dòng)物有意向內(nèi)陸遷移”，伊麗娜·拉弗利安娜說(shuō)道。她曾是“聯(lián)合國(guó)國(guó)際減災(zāi)戰(zhàn)略”顧問(wèn)小組的成員，現(xiàn)在是位于波恩的德國(guó)發(fā)展研究所的研究人員。“許多幸存者是與這些動(dòng)物一起或緊隨其后逃跑的”。

Rafliana recounts similar stories tied to her field work around other disasters, such as the 2010 tsunami generated by a subsea quake near Sumatra, which killed nearly 500 people on the Mentawai Islands. Here too, however, some animals, such as elephants, were reported to have responded as if possessing some kind of early knowledge of the event. Just days ago, a newly re-released turtle made a sudden U-turn two days before January's volcanic eruption in Tonga.

拉弗利安娜講述了她在實(shí)地調(diào)查其他災(zāi)害中聽(tīng)到的類似情況，例如2010年，蘇門(mén)答臘島附近的海底地震引發(fā)了海嘯，導(dǎo)致明打威群島約500人遇難。但是，有傳言說(shuō)這里的大象等動(dòng)物也有反應(yīng)，好像預(yù)感到了災(zāi)難。在一月份湯加火山爆發(fā)前兩天，一只海龜被放歸時(shí)突然掉頭返回。幾天前，這只海龜被重新放歸大海。

Early warning systems do not exist in many areas struck regularly by natural disasters. In 2017, the World Meterological Organisation found that the governments of around 100 countries still lack early warning systems for natural disasters to which they were prone.

許多自然災(zāi)害頻發(fā)的地區(qū)沒(méi)有預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。2017年，世界氣象組織發(fā)現(xiàn)，約有100個(gè)國(guó)家政府對(duì)于多發(fā)的自然災(zāi)害仍然缺少預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。
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But these accounts about animal behaviour before disasters have prompted some researchers to devote serious scientific attention to the theory that animals may have inbuilt systems which alx them to impending natural disasters. It raises an intriguing question – could animals provide natural early warning systems for humans?

但是，這些關(guān)于動(dòng)物災(zāi)前行為的描述引起了科學(xué)家對(duì)一種理論的高度關(guān)注：動(dòng)物可能天生就有預(yù)警自然災(zāi)害的系統(tǒng)。這引發(fā)一個(gè)有趣的問(wèn)題——?jiǎng)游锬芊駷槿祟愄峁┨烊坏念A(yù)警系統(tǒng)？

The earliest recorded reference to unusual animal behaviour prior to a natural disaster dates back to 373 BC, when the Greek historian Thucydides reported rats, dogs, snakes and weasels deserting the city of Helice in the days before a catastrophic earthquake. Other reports dot history. Minutes before the Naples quake of 1805, oxen, sheep, dogs and geese supposedly started making alarm calls in unison, while horses were said to have run off in panic just prior to the San Francisco earthquake of 1906.

關(guān)于災(zāi)前動(dòng)物行為反常的最早記錄可追溯到公元前373年，據(jù)當(dāng)時(shí)的希臘歷史學(xué)家修西得底斯記載：老鼠、狗、蛇、黃鼠狼在破壞性地震前幾天逃離海利斯城。歷史上也有其他記載：在1805年那不勒斯地震發(fā)生前幾分鐘，據(jù)說(shuō)牛、羊、狗、鵝一同發(fā)出警叫聲；在1906年洛杉磯地震發(fā)生前，據(jù)說(shuō)馬倉(cāng)皇逃離。
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Even with advanced technology it can be difficult to detect many kinds of impending natural disasters. In the case of earthquakes, for example, seismic sensors lurch into jolted squiggles only as the earth-juddering shocks are actually happening. Making reliable predictions requires precursor signals – and, as yet, scientists haven't found any signals that seem to occur consistently before big quakes. Hence the growing willingness of some scientists to consider more unorthodox warning signals – such as animal behaviour.

即使利用先進(jìn)技術(shù)，也很難探測(cè)到即將發(fā)生的各種自然災(zāi)害。以地震為例，只有當(dāng)?shù)孛娲_實(shí)出現(xiàn)振動(dòng)時(shí)，地震傳感器才會(huì)突現(xiàn)震動(dòng)曲線?？煽康念A(yù)測(cè)地震需要前兆信號(hào)——但在大地震發(fā)生前，科學(xué)家尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)任何連續(xù)的信號(hào)。因此，有些科學(xué)家逐漸愿意考慮不太正統(tǒng)的預(yù)警信號(hào)——比如動(dòng)物行為。

"Even with all the technology available today, we are not able to properly predict earthquakes or most natural catastrophes," says Charlotte Francesiaz, leader of an ornithological team at the French Biodiversity Office (OFB), and part of the Kivi Kuaka project, which is examining how migratory birds crossing the Pacific seem able to dodge storms and other hazards.

“就算用上當(dāng)今所有的技術(shù)，我們依然無(wú)法準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)地震或大多數(shù)自然災(zāi)害”，夏洛特·弗朗西塞茲說(shuō)道。她是“法國(guó)生物多樣性辦事處”鳥(niǎo)類學(xué)團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)人，也是Kivi Kuaka項(xiàng)目的參與者，該項(xiàng)目正在研究飛越太平洋的候鳥(niǎo)是如何避開(kāi)風(fēng)暴及其他災(zāi)害的。

One of the most important investigations into how animals could predict disasters was carried out five years ago by a team led by Martin Wikelski from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Germany. The study involved recording the movement patterns of different animals (cows, sheep and dogs) – a process known as biologging – on a farm in the earthquake-prone region of the Marches in central Italy. Collars with chips were attached to each animal, which sent movement data to a central computer every few minutes between October 2016 and April 2017.

五年前，德國(guó)馬克斯·普朗克動(dòng)物行為研究所的馬丁·維克爾斯基帶領(lǐng)團(tuán)隊(duì)開(kāi)展了一項(xiàng)最重要的調(diào)查，旨在研究動(dòng)物是如何預(yù)測(cè)自然災(zāi)害的。這項(xiàng)研究記錄了各種動(dòng)物的活動(dòng)模式（牛、羊、狗）——這種方法稱為生物信標(biāo)跟蹤記錄——地點(diǎn)位于意大利中部地震多發(fā)的馬爾凱大區(qū)的一座農(nóng)場(chǎng)。從2016年10月至2017年4月，每只動(dòng)物被戴上裝有芯片的項(xiàng)圈，每隔幾分鐘向中央計(jì)算機(jī)發(fā)送一次活動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)。

During this period, official statistics recorded over 18,000 quakes in the region, from tiny tremors measuring just 0.4 magnitude up to a dozen quakes notching 4 or above – including the devastating magnitude 6.6 magnitude Norcia earthquake.

在此期間，官方數(shù)據(jù)記錄了該地區(qū)18000多次地震，其中既有0.4級(jí)的微震，也有10多次4級(jí)以上地震——包括破壞性的6.6級(jí)諾爾恰地震。
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The researchers found evidence that the farm animals began to change their behaviour up to 20 hours before an earthquake. Whenever the monitored farm animals were collectively 50% more active for more than 45 minutes at a stretch, the researchers predicted an earthquake with a magnitude above 4.0. Seven out of eight strong earthquakes were correctly predicted in this way.

科學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的證據(jù)表明，在地震前20個(gè)小時(shí)，家畜的行為就開(kāi)始發(fā)生變化。每當(dāng)家畜被監(jiān)測(cè)到總體活躍度增加50%并持續(xù)45分鐘以上時(shí)，科學(xué)家就預(yù)測(cè)即將發(fā)生4.0級(jí)以上地震，他們以這種方式準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)了8次強(qiáng)震中的7次。

"The closer the animals were to the epicentre of the impending shock, the earlier they changed their behaviour," Wikelski said in 2020 when the study was released. "This is exactly what you would expect when physical changes occur more frequently at the epicentre of the impending earthquake and become weaker with increasing distance."

“這些動(dòng)物距離即將發(fā)生地震的震中越近，它們發(fā)生行為改變的時(shí)間越早”，維克爾斯基在2020年公布這項(xiàng)研究時(shí)說(shuō)道?！斑@完全在意料之中，物理變化在即將發(fā)生地震的震中比較頻繁，隨著距離的增加而逐漸衰減”。

Another study carried out by Wikelski monitoring the movements of tagged goats on the volcanic slopes of Mount Etna in Sicily also found the animals seemed to have an advance sense of when Etna was going to burst into life.

維克爾斯基在另一項(xiàng)研究中監(jiān)測(cè)了被標(biāo)記山羊的活動(dòng)，它們生活在西西里島的埃特納火山的斜坡上，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)埃特納火山即將噴發(fā)時(shí)，這些動(dòng)物似乎有預(yù)感。

Over in South America, behavioural ecologist Rachel Grant – now at London South Bank University – has found similar results. She carried out biologging of animal movement patterns using motion-triggered cameras inside Yanachaga National Park in the Peruvian Andes over a period which included the magnitude 7.0 Contamana earthquake in 2011.

在南美洲地區(qū)，行為生態(tài)學(xué)家雷切爾·格朗——現(xiàn)就職于英國(guó)倫敦南岸大學(xué)——發(fā)現(xiàn)了類似結(jié)果。在秘魯安第斯山脈的亞納查加國(guó)家公園里，她利用活動(dòng)感應(yīng)式攝像機(jī)對(duì)動(dòng)物的活動(dòng)模式進(jìn)行了生物信標(biāo)跟蹤記錄，期間的2011年發(fā)生過(guò)7.0級(jí)康塔馬納地震。

"The number of animals recorded on the camera traps started to decrease about 23 days before the earthquake – with the decrease accelerating eight days prior to the earthquake," Grant said in her 2015 paper on the research. "On days 10, six, five, three and two prior to the earthquake – and on the day of the earthquake – no animal movements were recorded, which is highly unusual."

“大約在地震發(fā)生前23天，相機(jī)陷阱拍攝到的動(dòng)物數(shù)量開(kāi)始減少——在地震前的8天，數(shù)量減少速度加快”，格朗在2015年的研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。“在地震前的10天、6天、5天、3天、2天——以及地震當(dāng)天——攝像機(jī)沒(méi)有拍攝到任何動(dòng)物活動(dòng)，這極不尋常”。

Crucially, Grant also found evidence of what might be triggering the changes in local animal behaviour, in the shape of a series of strong perturbations in local atmospheric electric charges every two to four minutes, starting two weeks before the earthquake. A particularly large fluctuation was recorded around eight days before the Contamana earthquake – coinciding with the start of the second stage of the animals disappearing from view.

關(guān)鍵是格朗還發(fā)現(xiàn)了證據(jù)，證明從地震前兩周開(kāi)始，大氣層中的電荷每隔兩到四分鐘會(huì)出現(xiàn)一系列的強(qiáng)烈擾動(dòng)，這可能是當(dāng)?shù)貏?dòng)物發(fā)生行為變化的原因。大約在康塔馬納地震前8天，電荷擾動(dòng)尤為劇烈——這與動(dòng)物從視野中消失的第二階段的起始時(shí)間相吻合。

Scientists are now exploring whether these electromagnetic perturbations in the atmosphere prior to earthquakes could be a warning sign of impending quakes which animals may be sensing.

科學(xué)家正在探究在地震發(fā)生前，大氣層中的電磁擾動(dòng)能否成為地震的預(yù)警信號(hào)，這些信號(hào)可能被動(dòng)物感知到。

Earthquakes are invariably preceded by a period when severe stresses arise in deep rock – stresses known to create electronic charges called "positive holes". These highly mobile electronic charge carriers can flow quickly from the crust to the Earth's surface, where they ionise air molecules above where they appear. Such ionisation has been noted prior to quakes across the globe. As these positive holes flow, they also generate ultra-low frequency electromagnetic waves, providing an additional signal that some animals may be able to pick up.

在地震發(fā)生前，深部巖石總是產(chǎn)生巨大應(yīng)力——應(yīng)力產(chǎn)生的電荷稱為“正孔”。這些具有高流動(dòng)性的電荷載體能從地殼迅速到達(dá)地表，使上方的空氣分子發(fā)生電離，全球各地在地震前都已注意到這種電離現(xiàn)象。“正孔”在流動(dòng)中還產(chǎn)生超低頻的電磁波，某些動(dòng)物也許能夠感知到這些額外信號(hào)。

"Earthquake precursors aren't well documented scientifically," says Matthew Blackett, associate professor in physical geography and natural hazards at Coventry University. But some scientists theorise that animals could have evolved a seismic escape mechanism, he says. "Perhaps they detect pressure waves before earthquakes arrive, perhaps they detect changes in electric field as fault lines when rock starts to compress. Animals also contain a lot of iron, which is sensitive to magnetism and electric fields."

“地震前兆在科學(xué)上證據(jù)不足”，英國(guó)考文垂大學(xué)自然地理學(xué)與自然災(zāi)害副教授馬修·布萊克特說(shuō)道。但有些科學(xué)家推測(cè)，動(dòng)物可能進(jìn)化出某種地震逃生機(jī)制，他說(shuō)道?！耙苍S它們?cè)诘卣鹎案兄搅藟毫Σ?，也許在巖石開(kāi)始?jí)嚎s時(shí)，它們感知到了斷層線的電場(chǎng)發(fā)生變化。另外，動(dòng)物體內(nèi)含有大量鐵元素，對(duì)磁力和電場(chǎng)很靈敏。

Positive holes could also cause certain toxic chemicals to appear before quakes. For example, if they come into contact with water, they can trigger oxidation reactions which create the bleaching agent hydrogen peroxide. Chemical reactions between the charge carriers and organic matter in the soil could trigger other unpleasant products such as ozone.

在地震發(fā)生前，“正孔”還可能產(chǎn)生某些有毒化學(xué)物。例如，它們與水接觸發(fā)生氧化反應(yīng)，產(chǎn)生過(guò)氧化氫這種漂白劑?！罢住秉c(diǎn)和載體與土壤有機(jī)物發(fā)生化學(xué)反應(yīng)，會(huì)產(chǎn)生其他令人不適的產(chǎn)物，例如臭氧。
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Meanwhile, days before the 7.7 magnitude Gujarat earthquake in India in 2001, a surge in carbon monoxide levels was picked up by satellites over a 100 square kilometre (39 sq mile) region centred on what turned out to be the epicentre of the eventual quake. Scientists have suggested that carbon monoxide gas could be forced out of the earth due to the build-up of stress in rocks as quake pressure builds.

另外，在2001年印度7.7級(jí)古吉拉特邦地震發(fā)生數(shù)天前，衛(wèi)星探測(cè)到方圓100平方公里（39平方英尺）區(qū)域的一氧化碳濃度激增，后來(lái)證明該區(qū)域的中心就是這場(chǎng)地震的震中?？茖W(xué)家認(rèn)為，巖石內(nèi)的應(yīng)力會(huì)隨著地震壓力的積聚而增強(qiáng)，可能迫使一氧化碳?xì)怏w從地面釋放出來(lái)。

Many animals, of course, are equipped with highly developed sensory apparatus that can read an array of natural signals on which their lives may depend – so it seems perfectly possible that some animals may be able to pick up any earthquake precursors. Unpleasant chemicals could be sniffed out, low frequency waves picked up, and ionised air sensed by sensations in fur or feathers.

許多動(dòng)物顯然具備高度發(fā)達(dá)的感覺(jué)器官，能讀懂一系列它們可能賴以生存的大自然信號(hào)——看來(lái)某些動(dòng)物完全有可能接收到地震前兆。它們可能嗅到不適的化學(xué)物質(zhì)，接收到低頻波，皮毛或羽毛感知到電離空氣。

With earthquakes so difficult to anticipate, these findings beg the question: could humans actually predict earthquakes by animal observations, and thus be able to warn people they are coming?

由于預(yù)測(cè)地震的難度非常大，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)引出的問(wèn)題是：人類能否通過(guò)觀察動(dòng)物來(lái)真正預(yù)測(cè)地震？從而向人們發(fā)出預(yù)警？

In a 2020 paper, Wikelski and his colleagues set out a prototype for an earthquake early warning system using animal activity monitoring sites, based on data from his research in Italy. He estimated that farm animals above the point of origin of the imminent earthquake which were able to perceive it in some way would show activity 18 hours before it hit. Animals situated 10km (6.2 miles) away from the epicentre should show warning signs eight hours later, followed by animals at farms 20km (12.4 miles) away a further eight hours later. "If correct, this would indicate an earthquake is imminent within the next two hours," he says.

2020年，維克爾斯基及其同事在論文中提出一種地震預(yù)警原型系統(tǒng)，該系統(tǒng)利用多個(gè)動(dòng)物活動(dòng)監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)，以他在意大利的研究數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)。如果家畜位于即將發(fā)生地震的震源點(diǎn)上方，并具備以某種方式預(yù)知地震的能力，他估算家畜在地震前18個(gè)小時(shí)就有活動(dòng)跡象。如果家畜距離震中10公里（6.2英里），發(fā)出預(yù)警的時(shí)間會(huì)推遲8個(gè)小時(shí)，距離震中20公里（12.4英里）會(huì)進(jìn)一步推遲8個(gè)小時(shí)。“如果沒(méi)錯(cuò)的話，這預(yù)示著未來(lái)兩小時(shí)內(nèi)將發(fā)生地震”，他說(shuō)道。

Researchers will need to observe a larger number of animals over longer periods of time in different earthquake zones around the world before they can be used to predict earthquakes. For this, Wikelski and others are turning to the global animal observation system Icarus on the International Space Station to gather movement data for animals globally.

科學(xué)家將需要在全世界的地震帶對(duì)更多的動(dòng)物進(jìn)行更長(zhǎng)期的觀察，才能利用動(dòng)物預(yù)測(cè)地震。維克爾斯基等人為此求助國(guó)際空間站上的全球動(dòng)物監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)Icarus，收集全球動(dòng)物的活動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)。

Icarus (International Cooperation for Animal Research Using Space) is an initiative set up by a global collaboration of scientists in 2002. It aims to provide an accurate global observation system for an array of tagged small animals (such as birds) to provide data and clues about interactions between the planet's animal life and its physical systems.

Lcarus（太空輔助動(dòng)物研究國(guó)際合作組織）是于2002年由全球科學(xué)家聯(lián)合創(chuàng)辦的項(xiàng)目，旨在為一系列的標(biāo)記小動(dòng)物（例如鳥(niǎo)）提供精確的全球監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)，從而為了解地球上的動(dòng)物生命與物理系統(tǒng)的相互影響提供相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)和線索。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


China, meanwhile, has already created a Quake alx system based at its earthquake bureau in Nanning, monitoring the behaviour of animals much closer to the ground – specifically, snakes in farms across a wide quake-prone region. Snakes possess a powerful array of sensory mechanisms geared to detecting tiny changes in aspects of their environment, and it was in part sudden changes in the behaviour of snakes and other animals which prompted authorities to evacuate the Chinese city of Haicheng in 1975, just before a major quake struck – an action that saved countless lives.

另外，中國(guó)在南寧地震局建立了地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，監(jiān)測(cè)比較貼近地面的動(dòng)物的行為——確切地說(shuō)是在地震多發(fā)區(qū)里的農(nóng)田蛇。蛇類具備一套強(qiáng)大的感官機(jī)制，用于感知周邊環(huán)境的細(xì)微變化。1975年，在中國(guó)海城市大地震發(fā)生不久前，蛇類及其他動(dòng)物的行為突然出現(xiàn)變化，在某種程度上促使政府疏散轉(zhuǎn)移群眾，這一行動(dòng)拯救了無(wú)數(shù)條生命。

"Of all the creatures on the earth, snakes are perhaps the most sensitive to earthquakes," Jiang Weisong, then director of the Nanning bureau, told China Daily in 2006. "When an earthquake is about to occur, snakes will move out of their nests, even in the cold of winter."

“在所有的地球生物中，蛇類可能對(duì)地震最為敏感”，2006年時(shí)任南京地震局局長(zhǎng)的Jiang Weisong在接受《中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)》采訪時(shí)說(shuō)道。“當(dāng)要發(fā)生地震時(shí)，蛇類將傾巢而出，寒冷的冬天也不例外”。

Earthquakes are not the only environmental dangers animals seem to have advanced warning of. Birds are increasingly in the spotlight for apparently being able to detect other approaching natural hazards.

動(dòng)物似乎能夠預(yù)警的環(huán)境威脅不只是地震，鳥(niǎo)類明顯能夠預(yù)知其他即將到來(lái)的自然災(zāi)害，因此越來(lái)越受關(guān)注。

In 2014, scientists tracking golden-winged warblers in the US recorded a startling example of what's known as an evacuation migration. The birds suddenly took off from their breeding ground in the Cumberland Mountains of eastern Tennessee and flew 700km (435 miles) away – despite having just flown 5,000km (3,100 miles) in from South America. Shortly after the birds left, a terrifying swarm of over 80 tornadoes struck the area, killing 35 people and causing over $1bn (￡740m) in damage.

2014年，當(dāng)科學(xué)家在美國(guó)追蹤金翅鶯的行蹤時(shí)，記錄到一種被稱為逃離遷徙的驚人現(xiàn)象。這些金翅鶯突然離開(kāi)田納西州東部坎伯蘭山脈的繁殖地，飛到700公里（435英里）以外的地方——但它們不久前剛從南美洲飛行5000公里（3100英里）到達(dá)這里。這些金翅鶯離開(kāi)不久后，80多場(chǎng)可怕的龍卷風(fēng)襲擊了該地區(qū)，導(dǎo)致35人死亡，造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失超過(guò)10億美元（7.4億英鎊）。

The suggestion seemed clear – the birds had somehow sensed the twisters coming from more than 400km (250 miles) away. As to how, initial focus is on infrasound – low frequency background sounds inaudible to humans, but present throughout the natural environment.

看來(lái)跡象很明確——這種鳥(niǎo)以某種方式感知到龍卷風(fēng)正在從400公里（250英里）遠(yuǎn)處襲來(lái)。最初的焦點(diǎn)是次聲波——人類聽(tīng)不見(jiàn)這種低頻背景音，但它在自然界無(wú)處不在。

"Meteorologists and physicists have known for decades that tornadic storms make very strong infrasound that can travel thousands of kilometres from the storm," Henry Streby, a wildlife biologist at the University of California, Berkeley, said at the time. He further noted that infrasound from severe storms travels at a frequency the birds would have been well attuned to hearing.

“幾十年前，氣象學(xué)家和物理學(xué)家就已知道龍卷風(fēng)暴發(fā)出非常強(qiáng)烈的次聲波，傳播距離達(dá)數(shù)千公里”，美國(guó)加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的野生動(dòng)物生物學(xué)家亨利·斯特比當(dāng)時(shí)說(shuō)道。他還發(fā)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)烈風(fēng)暴發(fā)出次聲波的傳播頻率能夠被鳥(niǎo)類聽(tīng)到。

Detecting variation in infrasound is also thought to be the mechanism by which migrating birds seem able to dodge storms on vast ocean crossings – an idea now being tested by the ongoing Kivi Kuaka study in the Pacific Ocean.

科學(xué)家認(rèn)為，當(dāng)候鳥(niǎo)飛越浩瀚的海洋時(shí)，似乎還能通過(guò)感知次聲波的變化來(lái)躲避風(fēng)暴——正在太平洋進(jìn)行的Kivi Kuaka研究項(xiàng)目正在檢驗(yàn)這一想法。

This study was inspired by a radio programme French navy officer Jér?me Chardon listened to about a bird called the bar-tailed godwit, which every year migrates 14,000km (8,700 miles) between New Zealand and Alaska. As an experienced coordinator of rescue operations across Southeast Asia and French Polynesia, Chardon knew how treacherous this journey would be. Fierce storms frequently lash the Pacific and its diaspora of isolated island communities. So how were bar-tailed godwits seemingly able to make their annual journeys without being hindered by these ever-present stormy hazards?

這項(xiàng)研究的靈感來(lái)自法國(guó)海軍軍官杰羅姆·查爾頓收聽(tīng)的一檔廣播節(jié)目，說(shuō)的是一種被稱為斑尾塍鷸的鳥(niǎo)類每年在新西蘭和阿拉斯加之間遷徙14000公里（8700英里）。在東南亞和法屬波利尼西亞，查爾頓是一名經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的救援行動(dòng)協(xié)調(diào)員，他知道這段遷徙旅程有多兇險(xiǎn)。猛烈的風(fēng)暴經(jīng)常襲擊太平洋及其孤島移民社區(qū)，那么每年斑尾塍鷸是如何躲過(guò)這些經(jīng)常存在的風(fēng)暴災(zāi)害而完成遷徙的？

Set up in January 2021, the project involves a team from France's National Museum of Natural History fitting 56 birds of five different species with GPS trackers to follow the routes they take across the ocean. The International Space Station provides oversight, receiving signals from the birds as they fly – and observing how they respond to natural hazards en route. Their tags also collect meteorological data to help improve climate modelling and weather forecasting across the Pacific.

2021年1月，法國(guó)國(guó)家自然歷史博物館的一支團(tuán)隊(duì)創(chuàng)立了該項(xiàng)目，他們將GPS跟蹤器安裝在56只五種不同的鳥(niǎo)身上，追蹤它們飛越海洋的路線。國(guó)際空間站負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)測(cè)，接收鳥(niǎo)類飛行中發(fā)出的信號(hào)——并觀察它們?cè)陲w行途中如何應(yīng)對(duì)自然災(zāi)害。它們身上的跟蹤器還收集氣象數(shù)據(jù)，有助于提高太平洋的氣候模擬和天氣預(yù)報(bào)。

Kivi Kuaka will also look at whether bird behaviour could warn against more infrequent hazards like tsunamis, which are known to generate distinctive infrasound patterns that race ahead of the actual waves. The project aims to test birds' possible contribution to an early warning system informing the imminent arrival of a typhoon or tsunami, says Francesiaz. The team is currently in the process of retrieving GPS tags on curlews to examine whether they reacted to an infrasound wave registered by French meteorological balloons in the Pacific a few hours after the recent volcano eruption in Tonga.

Kivi Kuaka項(xiàng)目還將觀察鳥(niǎo)類行為能否預(yù)警不常發(fā)生的災(zāi)害，以海嘯為例，在真正的波形出現(xiàn)之前會(huì)產(chǎn)生獨(dú)特的次聲波形。該項(xiàng)目旨在測(cè)試?guó)B類對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)或海嘯預(yù)警系統(tǒng)可能做出的貢獻(xiàn)，弗朗西塞茲說(shuō)道。目前，該團(tuán)隊(duì)正在回收鷸身上的GPS跟蹤器，檢查它們對(duì)次聲波是否有所反應(yīng)，最近在湯加火山爆發(fā)幾小時(shí)后，太平洋上的法國(guó)氣象氣球記錄了這些次聲波。

Samantha Patrick, a marine biologist at the University of Liverpool, is also examining infrasound as a method by which birds can detect and avoid natural hazards – and, by extension, perhaps alx humans too. "I think we can say it is possible that birds can sense changes in infrasound," she says. Patrick is currently looking at whether albatrosses show a preference for areas of high or low infrasound, although the analysis is not yet complete.

薩曼莎·帕特里克是來(lái)自利物浦大學(xué)的海洋生物學(xué)家，她也在調(diào)查鳥(niǎo)類利用次聲波作為感知和躲避自然災(zāi)害的手段——更進(jìn)一步而言，也許還能為人類提供預(yù)警?！拔艺J(rèn)為鳥(niǎo)類感知次聲波的變化是可能的”，她說(shuō)道。目前，帕特里克正在觀察信天翁是否偏愛(ài)高頻或低頻的次聲波，但相關(guān)分析尚未完成。

Not all experts think that animal early warning systems are a viable option for predicting disasters. And even if they do help, animal movements alone are unlikely to be enough to provide: people will need to rely on a combination of early warning signals to get the full picture.

并不是所有的專家都認(rèn)為，動(dòng)物的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)可被用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)自然災(zāi)害。即使有幫助，僅僅依靠動(dòng)物行為也不足以提供預(yù)警：人們需要依靠綜合的預(yù)警信號(hào)才能了解全貌。

Still, while we may not be able to talk to animals quite yet, perhaps it's time to pay more attention to their warnings.

盡管我們還無(wú)法跟動(dòng)物對(duì)話，但也許是時(shí)候?qū)λ鼈兊念A(yù)警多加注意了。