中國人工智能崛起,美國已經(jīng)落后一步(一)
China Has Won AI Battle With US, Pentagon''s Ex-software Chief Says譯文簡介
中國肯定會崛起取代美國,但什么時候才可以?
正文翻譯
China has won the artificial intelligence battle with the United States and is heading towards global dominance because of its technological advances, the Pentagon's former software chief told the Financial Times. From a report:
五角大樓前軟件部門負責(zé)人向英國《金融時報》表示,中國已經(jīng)贏得了與美國的人工智能的競爭之戰(zhàn),并且中國正在憑借人工智能技術(shù)的進步一步步走向新的全球主導(dǎo)地位。以下為具體報道:
China, the world's second largest economy, is likely to dominate many of the key emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and genetics within a decade or so, according to Western intelligence assessments. Nicolas Chaillan, the Pentagon's first chief software officer who resigned in protest against the slow pace of technological transformation in the U.S. military, said the failure to respond was putting the United States at risk.
根據(jù)西方情報機構(gòu)的評估顯示,作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體,中國很可能在未來十年內(nèi)主導(dǎo)眾多關(guān)鍵的新興技術(shù),尤其是人工智能、合成生物學(xué)和遺傳學(xué)。尼古拉斯·查蘭是五角大樓的首位軟件技術(shù)負責(zé)人,他辭職是為了抗議美國軍方技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)型的緩慢步伐。他說軍方技術(shù)部門未能做出及時的回應(yīng),將美國置于極其危險的境地。
根據(jù)西方情報機構(gòu)的評估顯示,作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體,中國很可能在未來十年內(nèi)主導(dǎo)眾多關(guān)鍵的新興技術(shù),尤其是人工智能、合成生物學(xué)和遺傳學(xué)。尼古拉斯·查蘭是五角大樓的首位軟件技術(shù)負責(zé)人,他辭職是為了抗議美國軍方技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)型的緩慢步伐。他說軍方技術(shù)部門未能做出及時的回應(yīng),將美國置于極其危險的境地。
"We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it's already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion," he told the newspaper. "Whether it takes a war or not is kind of anecdotal." China was set to dominate the future of the world, controlling everything from media narratives to geopolitics, he said.
“在15到20年之內(nèi),我們沒有抓住與中國競爭的機會?,F(xiàn)在,局勢已經(jīng)成為了定局,在我看來,一切都已經(jīng)結(jié)束了?!薄爸劣谑欠裥枰粓鰬?zhàn)爭來解決……目前還只是一個傳聞,暫無正式結(jié)果?!彼B續(xù)警告道,中國注定要主宰世界的未來,控制文化到地緣政治的一切。
“在15到20年之內(nèi),我們沒有抓住與中國競爭的機會?,F(xiàn)在,局勢已經(jīng)成為了定局,在我看來,一切都已經(jīng)結(jié)束了?!薄爸劣谑欠裥枰粓鰬?zhàn)爭來解決……目前還只是一個傳聞,暫無正式結(jié)果?!彼B續(xù)警告道,中國注定要主宰世界的未來,控制文化到地緣政治的一切。
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Ah Shit
Now I have to learn Chinese, no wait its Reuters, never mind.
啊,干!
現(xiàn)在我要學(xué)中文了,不,等等,這個消息是路透社發(fā)出來的,那不用關(guān)心了。
Re:Ah Shit
Actually, most speak English as a 2nd language - when they say bend over you will understand.
然而事實是,中國的大多數(shù)人把英語作為第二語言——當(dāng)他們說“彎腰”的時候,你就會明白現(xiàn)實。
Indeed. Baidu's has big research centers in Seattle and Sunnyvale, California. Many of the people working there are American citizens, so perhaps it is a bit silly to label the innovations from these labs as "Chinese".
Just in case, "bend over" in Mandarin is "Wan yao!'
確實,百度在西雅圖和加州森尼維爾都有大型研究中心。在那里工作的許多人都是美國公民,因此,給這些實驗室的創(chuàng)新成果也貼上“中國”的標(biāo)簽可能有點愚蠢。
僅僅只是指正一下,“bend over”在普通話里是“彎腰!”
My personal experience in several major and minor Chinese cities says this is not true.
我在中國好幾個大城市和小城市的個人經(jīng)歷告訴我,你說的事實并非如此(指前面那個人說的中國人大部分說英語)。
Agreed. If they can all write English, they mostly can't speak it.
我同意,因為他們只是大部分能寫英語,可他們大多數(shù)都不會說英語。
Unlike most westerners who can barely speak Englishy.
不過大多數(shù)的西方人似乎也幾乎不會說英語。(歐洲其他國家)
Re:Now I have to learn Chinese
No, you have to learn to steal IP. No, wait; Reuters still thinks "AI" stands for "Artificial Intelligence" (obviously it stands for "Marketing Desperation"); never mind.
不,你得學(xué)會如何用當(dāng)黑客。不,等等,路透社竟然仍然認為“AI”就能完全代表“人工智能”(它更代表“營銷絕望”),大家不要在乎路透社。
No, they have an AI that will translate for you :-)
他們將擁有一個翻譯人工智能
不對,說錯了,他們會用人工智能來幫你翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
帝國的正常興衰而已
has anyone noticed how geographically empires follow the path of the sun (more or less?) starting from babylonia/sumeria, egyptians, greeks, rome, UK, the US and soon China. Also the speed seems to be ever increasing (less time for the duration of each "empire").
有沒有人注意到地理上的帝國崛起,很像太陽運轉(zhuǎn)周期的循環(huán)(或多或少有關(guān)聯(lián)),從巴比倫/蘇美爾,埃及,希臘,羅馬,英國,美國,如今將是中國。而且興亡速度似乎一直在增加(每個“帝國”的持續(xù)時間越來越短)。
by timeOday
"Nothing last forever" is kind of a vapid statement though without naming who and when something will gain or lose prominence. Sure, eventually Amazon will go out of business. And I will die. Eventually. But when?
“沒有什么是永恒”是一種乏味的陳述,因為它沒有指明什么人、什么時候會變得杰出或失敗。當(dāng)然,我肯定亞馬遜最終會破產(chǎn)。我也最終會死。但是……什么時候?言外之意:中國肯定會崛起成為取代美國的帝國,但什么時候才可以?
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Cool. How long before we have the British Empire, V2.0?
酷,美國離大英帝國2.0版還有多久?
by Anonymous Coward
"London isn't really an English city," according to John Cleese. And he's absolutely right. Unless they push out the tremendous influx of EU work visa holders, they won't have enough native culture left to be a British Empire, even if they discovered cavorite and became the premiere space power.
“倫敦并不是真正的英國城市,”約翰·克里斯曾經(jīng)說過。我覺的他說的很正確。
如今,除非他們趕走大量涌入的歐盟工作簽證持有者,否則他們將沒有足夠的本土文化來成為大英帝國,即使他們發(fā)現(xiàn)了cavorite并成為第一太空強國也依然不行。
For decades, the not-so-joke has almost always been, there is London, and there is England. And it has nothing to do with the whiteness of the citizenry.
幾十年來幾乎一直有一個不那么搞笑的說法:因為倫敦存在,英格蘭才存在。這和倫敦的公民是否是白種人完全沒有任何關(guān)系。
"As always.... England prevails."
“一如既往…英國人勝利?!?/b>
The difference between England and London was instrumental in preventing Matilda being crowned queen in ~1140.
英格蘭和倫敦之間的區(qū)別,是阻止瑪?shù)贍栠_在1140年加冕為英國女王的關(guān)鍵原因。
The Mongols would like a word with your theory. After them, probably the Persians, Khmer, Aztec, Inca, and probably several more.
蒙古人肯定想跟你談?wù)勀愕睦碚?。在他們之后,可能是波斯人,高棉人,阿茲特克人,印加人,可能還有更多我可以舉例的存在。
by ShanghaiBill
The Mongols would like a word with your theory.
... also, the British reached the top after the decline of the Spanish Empire, which was a shift north and slightly east rather than to the west. Then the crown shifted further east to France under Louis XIV and Napoleon. Then back to Britain after Waterloo.
So plenty of complicated shifting and reversals rather than a steady progression from east to west.
不錯,蒙古人想跟你談?wù)勀愕睦碚摗?br /> ……此外,英國在西班牙帝國衰落后才開始正式崛起,當(dāng)時西班牙帝國是向北和稍微向東擴張,而不是向西。隨后,在路易十四和拿破侖的統(tǒng)治下,王位進一步向東轉(zhuǎn)移到了法國。然后在滑鐵盧戰(zhàn)役后回到英國。
所以歷史帝國的崛起,有很多復(fù)雜的轉(zhuǎn)變和逆轉(zhuǎn),而不是從東向西的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
by anoncoward69
So that means the middle east and Russia are next again after China? By then the middle east will be building nukes like they build IEDs and they'll have nuked the middle east into an inhabitable waste land within a decade.
所以這個理論,將意味著中東和俄羅斯將再次成為中國之后的下一個帝國?到那時,中東將會像他們建造簡易爆炸裝置那樣建造核武器,他們將在十年內(nèi)把中東變成一個荒地。
Or maybe Biden didna(TM)t want to provide Chinese mining companies free security.
中國人已經(jīng)擁有拜登了
或者拜登只是不想為中國礦業(yè)公司提供免費安全保障。
by Antique Geekmeister
> Good bye Taiwan, without a U.S. interested in protecting your anonymity y
可以和臺灣省說拜拜了,美國沒有興趣在給你暗中撐腰了
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
by Aighearach
The US doesn't do a bunch of mining in Afghanistan. What would happen if we tried? Oh, right, terrorists would kill all the workers.
美國在阿富汗并沒有進行大量采礦。如果我們嘗試大量采礦會發(fā)生什么?哦,恐怖分子會殺了所有的工人。
Wait, they are only saying this *NOW*?
It's been the case for the past decade, at least... probably even earlier than that.
等等,他們只是在說“現(xiàn)在”才競爭不過?
我覺的至少在過去十年里一直是這樣的……甚至可能更早。
by DarkOx
Its not news this is the guy dufus that said he could fix all the problems in six months. Now I am not saying current state of things and the degree of progress should be described as anything but abysmal; but anyone who knows as much about and had as much experience in "enterprise IT" as he claims knows you don't fix all of the pentagons IT security problems in six months, at least not without creating bigger operational risk than you had to start with.
這根本不能當(dāng)新聞,這個笨蛋說他能在六個月內(nèi)解決所有問題。
我并不是說目前的狀況不應(yīng)該被描述為糟糕透頂,但任何一個像他所聲稱的那樣對“企業(yè)IT”了解和有豐富經(jīng)驗的人都知道,你不可能在6個月內(nèi)解決五角大樓所有的IT安全問題,至少如果想要在不產(chǎn)生比以前更大風(fēng)險的基礎(chǔ)下,是不可能這么快解決所有問題的。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
也許他確實有一些好主意,但我也坦白地說,整件事看起來就像一個酸葡萄在抱怨:“如果每個人都聽我的,如果把我想做的事情放在第一位,我就會變得很棒!”Chaillan并不是一個優(yōu)秀的五角大樓官員,而且他也可能并不適合構(gòu)建軟件安全程序,因為這個崗位更多的是過程怎么做,而不是我們的技術(shù)存在問題。他沒有早點被趕出去的事實,恰恰說明了五角大樓如今的安全制度有多糟糕。
The reason has less to do with AI in particular and more to do with just straight-up-technology. China has completely trounced the US in this regard, and barring some kind of completely unforeseen domestic breakthrough, being a leader in AI is really just but one of the implications.
五角大樓的問題與人工智能其實并沒有太大關(guān)系,更多的是與直接應(yīng)用技術(shù)有關(guān)。而在相關(guān)技術(shù)方面,中國已經(jīng)完全擊敗了美國,除非我們國內(nèi)突然出現(xiàn)某種完全不可預(yù)見的重大突破,否則中國成為人工智能領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,真的只是其中一個必定的影響。
If they do have or soon obtain a convincing lead on self-driving cars that would be very significant. That's the most significant AI application of the first half of the 21st century I think... very difficult but with the potential to save over a million lives every year.
如果他們真的在自動駕駛汽車方面,取得或即將取得令人信服的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢,那將是非常重要的事情。我認為這是21世紀(jì)上半葉最重要的人工智能應(yīng)用……因為非常困難,它每年有可能可以拯救100多萬人的生命。
It sounds like a call for more Pentagon funding for AI.
Its reminiscent of the 1960s/70s coming Russian dominance in Air Superiority via the MiG-25 Foxbat stories. Stories that loosened Congressional purse strings for the F-15 and F-14 projects.
至于這個新聞只是五角大樓的資金騙局
這聽起來更像是在呼吁五角大樓為人工智能提供更多資金。
這讓人想起了上世紀(jì)60 /70年代,俄羅斯通過米格-25戰(zhàn)斗機在空中優(yōu)勢方面取得優(yōu)勢的故事,讓美國國會放寬了對F-15和F-14項目的資金限制。
Correct. DARPA was formed as a direct result of the Sputnik scare. Where is the new DARPA now? Maybe just we haven't witnessed China's Sputnik moment yet.
我也贊同樓上的看法。因為歷史上美國國防部高級研究計劃局的成立是人造衛(wèi)星恐慌的直接結(jié)果,新的DARPA現(xiàn)在在哪里?也許只是我們還沒有見證中國的“人造衛(wèi)星(起飛)”時刻。
by AmiMoJo
AI is just algorithms and datasets.
That's why China is ahead, they have moved beyond just training adversarial networks on big datasets.
Google was warned about this by their head of AI, who they fired seemingly in retaliation. Algos and datasets does produce some useful and impressive results, but it's never going to produce a general purpose AI. For example we have seen novels written by that kind of AI and they make little sense, even if the sequences of words by themselves meet grammar rules and sound like fragments of other works stitched together.
人工智能只是算法和數(shù)據(jù)集。
這些才是中國領(lǐng)先的原因,他們已經(jīng)不僅僅是在大數(shù)據(jù)集上訓(xùn)練網(wǎng)絡(luò)對抗了。
谷歌是被他們的AI負責(zé)人警告的,似乎是為了報復(fù),他們解雇了負責(zé)人。算法和數(shù)據(jù)集確實會產(chǎn)生一些有用和令人印象深刻的結(jié)果,但它永遠不會產(chǎn)生一個通用的人工智能。例如,我們已經(jīng)看到了由這種人工智能編寫的小說,但這些小說幾乎沒有任何意義,即使單詞本身的序列符合語法規(guī)則,聽起來也依然像是在拼湊其他作品的碎片內(nèi)容。
砍斷他們的膝蓋
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Institute a program that emphasizes imports from non-China, and watch China's economy tank in 5-10 yrs.
Also, "borrow" their tech, just like they've been "borrowing" ours for decades now.
現(xiàn)在專門建立一個針對“非中國進口”的計劃,然后我們就能坐等中國經(jīng)濟在5-10年后的衰退。
還有,“借用”他們的技術(shù),就像他們幾十年來一直在“借用”我們的一樣。
by Anonymous
"Institute a program". Yeah, kind of like "publish woke superheroes like Snowflake and Safespace to usher in a new generation of comics". In the real world, you lose money and go out of business *real fast* pulling that social justice warrior political nonsense. Or better, start a busness plan founded on "inclusion" rather than producing an actual product or service people want.
“專門針對計劃”?無語,你說的這個有點像“發(fā)布如Snowflake and Safespace這樣的新超級英雄,重新引領(lǐng)新一代的漫畫”。(嘴炮牛逼卻無用)
但在現(xiàn)實世界中,你會因為那些社會正義斗士的政治廢話而賠錢并“很快”破產(chǎn)?;蛘吒糜媱澋氖牵F(xiàn)在我們就開始建立一個在“包容”基礎(chǔ)上的商業(yè)計劃,然后共同生產(chǎn)人們真正想要的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。
So what's *your* plan??
So what's your master plan, Anonymous "Genius"?? Because I can't help but notice the severe lack of any useful information or suggestions in your shitpost.
Oh right, I forgot - you're just a russian agent posting using a sockpuppet account, right?
那么你的計劃是什么??
你的大計劃是什么,匿名的"天才"?因為我注意到你的垃圾帖子里根本沒有任何有用的信息或建議。
對了,我忘了,你只是個俄羅斯特工用馬甲賬號發(fā)帖,對吧?
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
It's reasonable to advise someone not to stick their face in a fire without offering up an alternative.
在無法提供其他好選擇的情況下,建議某人不要玩火燒臉才是最合適的做法。
Pentagon wants more money.
五角大樓想要更多的錢。
And I was going to say "great, sounds like we can go ahead cut the military budget to pay for health care."
我只想說:"很好,聽起來我們好像可以繼續(xù)削減軍事預(yù)算來支付醫(yī)療保健了"
Nicolas Chaillan was not Pentagon's software chief
He was not "software chief" for the Pentagon. "Mr. Nicolas Chaillan, a highly qualified expert, is appointed as the first Air Force Chief Software Officer, under Dr. William Roper, the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Arlington, Virginia... The Chief Software Officer works with the Program Executive Officers and is responsible for analyzing current software and cloud migration plans to avoid vendor lock-ins while allowing for rapid prototyping and a streamlined process for deployment. To keep up with the pace of technology, Mr. Chaillan uates and authorizes new commercially available off-the-shelf software and cloud-related technologies to help with their adoption across various Air Force programs based on their mission needs." https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Bi... [af.mil] He is good at promoting himself and does not need a boost from headlines that seem to elevate him and his role(s).
Nicolas Chaillan不是五角大樓的“軟件部長”。
Nicolas Chaillan先生是一名專業(yè)合格的專家,他被任命為第一任空軍首席軟件官,William Roper博士負責(zé)空軍采購,技術(shù)和后勤助理部長,在弗吉尼亞州……簡歷,不翻了,意思就是說這個人品德高尚,不需要危言聳聽來吸引目光
Like every empire, once a certain size is reached, and once a certain level of average wealth is reached, external opponents become the lesser of dangers to those in power. Look how busy the Chinese KP is already suppressing any upcoming domestic "tech giants", or how they struggle to keep their youth in line with living to work instead of working to live.
如同每個帝國一樣,一旦帝國達到一定的規(guī)模,一旦帝國社會達到一定的平均財富水平,外部對手對當(dāng)權(quán)者的威脅就會變小??纯粗袊爽F(xiàn)在有多忙,他們已經(jīng)在壓制任何即將到來的國內(nèi)“科技巨頭”,或者他們在努力讓中國的年輕人為了工作而生活,而不是為了生活而工作。
在我看來,中國讓他們的人工智能機器人戰(zhàn)士“進入”西方國家,對我們自由的威脅似乎比西方政府復(fù)制中國的做事方法,來滿足各國政府對權(quán)力的渴望要小得多。
and will need more funding.
I'm sure the two are unconnected.
軍方說我們要輸?shù)粢粓龈偁帟r,就意味著他們需要更多的資金。
我確信這兩者沒有關(guān)聯(lián)。
Somebody above posted the same thing but I don't see how this story supports or even fits that particular narrative. Chaillan is out. He quit. It says it's too late and all over.
上面有人也發(fā)表了同樣的看法,但我看不出這個看法有什么用。Chaillan離職了,他辭職了,也就是說我們一切都太晚了。
The PLA might have AI, but they have no real data to feed that AI.
Just look at what's happening on the India/Chinese border: they're attacking each other with sticks and rocks. That's going to be a great input for their ML system when it comes to fighting a real conflict, for sure.
中國可能有人工智能,但他們肯定沒有真實的數(shù)據(jù)來支撐人工智能。
看看中印邊境發(fā)生了什么:他們用棍棒和石頭互相攻擊。這對他們的ML系統(tǒng)來說是一個很好的數(shù)據(jù),以后處理涉及真正的沖突時的數(shù)據(jù),我很確定(嘲諷)。
LOL, that's a Luckyo level of understanding.
China doesn't have freedom and privacy like the west does. They can collect any datasets they like. And they do.
China and India did the sticks and stones on purpose so those kinds of things wouldn't escalate.
哈哈,這是搞笑級別的理解。
中國不像西方那樣放縱自由和過度隱私,他們可以收集任何他們喜歡的數(shù)據(jù)集,做他們喜歡做的事。
中國和印度故意使用棍棒和石頭,是因為這樣做不會導(dǎo)致沖突升級。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Surprise!
It is only recently that being clever in America has become somewhat socially acceptable but certainly teachers, scientists and engineers are very undervalued. IT seems to be a little more valued than engineering, but only because Joe Public has no actual idea what it entails, just that lots of kids seem to be able to drive Lamborghinis! So what I'm trying to get at... when US society places so little value on education, is it surprising that a country with over a billion population and a government made up of STEM graduates might pull ahead?
震驚!
直到最近,大力培養(yǎng)教師、科學(xué)家和工程師的做法更聰明,在美國才在一定程度上被社會所接受,過去一直被無視。程序員似乎比工程師更有價值,但只是因為Joe Public沒有實際的概念,只是很多孩子更喜歡開蘭博基尼!
所以我真正想說的是…在美國社會如此不重視教育的情況下,一個擁有超過10億人口、政府由STEM畢業(yè)生組成的國家可能在未來處于領(lǐng)先地位,這難道很令人驚訝嗎?
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Please share whatever you're smoking.
請告訴我你抽的是什么。(煙?大麻?飄了?)
What if the STEM graduates worked like Jack Welch, PhD Chem. Engr.?
如果STEM畢業(yè)生像杰克·韋爾奇那樣工作呢?
I've never heard of an IT guy getting more respect than an engineer, but OK.
我從來沒聽說過哪個IT人會比工程師更受尊重,不過無所謂了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Funny that mainland Chinese who feel sorry for their kids send them to American undergrad schools. because it's just sooo much easier. In China students have basically no life, they study 18-20 hours per day.
有趣的很,那些為自己的孩子感到遺憾的中國人(這里直譯),喜歡把他們的孩子送到美國來讀本科。因為來美國上本科遠比中國簡單。而在中國,學(xué)生基本上沒有其他生活,他們每天需要學(xué)習(xí)18-20個小時。