我們所知道的“西方”會像羅馬帝國那樣崩潰嗎?（二）
Will ''the West'' as we know it collapse the way the Roman Empire collapsed?
譯文簡介
“頹廢的羅馬人”假說主要起源于愛德華·吉本斯(Edward Gibbons)，他明確地將其與基督教聯(lián)系起來。根據(jù)吉本斯的說法，羅馬人“接受了陌生人和外來者的罪惡”(主要是基督教的“罪惡”)，這導(dǎo)致他們?nèi)狈樽约旱牡蹏鴮箾坝慷鴣淼囊靶U人的意愿。
正文翻譯
Will 'the West' as we know it collapse the way the Roman Empire collapsed?
我們所知道的“西方”會像羅馬帝國那樣崩潰嗎?
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Great comment. The “decadent Roman” hypothesis originates mainly with Edward Gibbons, who lixed it explicitly with Christianity. According to Gibbons, the Romans “adopted the vices of strangers and outsiders” (chief these “vices” Christianity), and that led to a lack of willingness to fight for their empire against the overwhelming waves of barbarians. It’s a pretty t heory, but it’s too bad that it’s not what happened. First of all, absolutely no evidence suggests that Romans in the late Western Empire were less willing to fight for their Empire then previously. The “barbarians” did indeed make up a significant portion of the Roman army, but they were not the majority. Also, the Romans had always heavily incorporated non-Roman auxiliaries into their armies. Despite having more “outsiders” serving as legionnaires in the late Empire, there’s no evidence that the army’s performance suffered. Second-and most important-Gibbons and the original post on this topic ignores the Roman Empire in the East (heavily Christian) which lasted nearly 1,000 years beyond the fall of the West. I guess the people in the East were less “debauched and lazy” then those in the West? Lol it doesn’t make sense at all. Clearly, it was socioeconomic factors-rather than attitudes-that led to the decline of the West while the East remained strong.
說得好。
“頹廢的羅馬人”假說主要起源于愛德華·吉本斯(Edward Gibbons)，他明確地將其與基督教聯(lián)系起來。根據(jù)吉本斯的說法，羅馬人“接受了陌生人和外來者的罪惡”(主要是基督教的“罪惡”)，這導(dǎo)致他們?nèi)狈樽约旱牡蹏鴮箾坝慷鴣淼囊靶U人的意愿。
這是一個光鮮的理論，但糟糕的是事實并非如此。首先，絕對沒有證據(jù)表明西羅馬帝國晚期的羅馬人比之前更不愿意為自己的帝國而戰(zhàn)。"蠻族"確實在羅馬軍隊中占了相當(dāng)大的比例，但他們并不是大多數(shù)。此外，羅馬人總是大量吸收非羅馬支援軍加入他們的軍隊。盡管在帝國后期有更多的“外人”作為軍團成員，但沒有證據(jù)表明軍隊的表現(xiàn)受到了影響。其次，也是最重要的一點，吉本斯和關(guān)于這個話題的原始評論忽略了東羅馬帝國(主要是基督教)，它在西羅馬滅亡后持續(xù)了近1000年。
我猜東羅馬人沒有西羅馬那么“放蕩和懶惰”，是嗎？哈哈，這完全沒有道理。很明顯，是社會經(jīng)濟因素，而不是態(tài)度，導(dǎo)致了西羅馬的衰落，而東羅馬依然強大。
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Respectfully, I disagree. This is largely based on moralising arguments, which I don't find convincing. People have been predicting doom since the beginning of human civilisation. Making huge, sweeping generalisations about hundreds of millions of people across multiple countries and continents… I just think it's not supported by any evidence. Rather than having some unique pathology of degeneration, “the West” (to the extent that such a thing even exists…) is simply the way it is because of technology and economics. It's not because people have “become soft” and forgotten virtue. Society may indeed collapse. But if it does, it will be caused by climate change and unregulated capitalism, not by some supposed decline in public morality.
我尊重樓主的觀點，但我不同意。
這在很大程度上是基于道德上的論點，我覺得這些論點沒有說服力。自從人類文明開始以來，人們就一直在預(yù)言末日。對來自多個國家和大洲的數(shù)億人進行了巨大的、全面的概括……我完全覺得這些概括沒有任何證據(jù)支持。
“西方”(在某種程度上，這樣的概念依然存在)之所以是西方，完全是因為技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟。這并不是因為人們“變得軟弱”，忘記了美德。社會可能真的會崩潰。但如果真的發(fā)生了，那將是由氣候變化和不受監(jiān)管的資本主義造成的，而不是由某種所謂的公共道德下降造成的。
The drivers of how technology and economy are used are those ‘soft’ things you seem to disdain: virtue, ethics, identity, etc… the narrative that holds a culture together. By themselves, technology and economy are but tools, neutral.
With a coherent narrative (if I may be forgiven for using that term to sum up all the ‘soft’ things) a culture can survive through much hardship.
An example I have in mind is how the narrative of Christian Hellenism ket the culture of the Greeks going for 400 years of Ottoman Islamic subjugation such that they were able to fight their way out in the early 19th century with language, religion and culture intact. 400 years.
Or of how after 2000 years of diaspora the narrative of Judaism kept a culture and people going to be able to reestablish a state, resurrect a language on the same real estate. 2000 years.
But for those two examples, there are ten times as many cultures that were swallowed up and lost to invading cultures.
Cultural narrative, if one believes in it, can be stronger than the technology and economy
推動技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟的是那些你似乎不屑一顧的“軟”東西：美德、倫理、身份等，它們是將一種文化凝聚在一起的敘事。就其本身而言，技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟只是工具，是中立的。有了一套連貫的敘述，一種文化可以在許多困難中生存下來。
我能想到的一個例子是，基督教希臘文化的敘述是如何讓希臘文化在奧斯曼伊斯蘭帝國統(tǒng)治了400年之后，在19世紀(jì)早期，他們能夠在語言、宗教和文化完好無損的情況下走出困境。這是400年。
或者在兩千年的散居之后，猶太教的敘述如何得以保留，人們?nèi)绾文軌蛑亟ㄒ粋€國家，在同一塊土地上復(fù)活一種語言。這是2000年。
但在這兩個例子之外，有十倍多的文化被入侵的文化所吞噬。
如果相信文化敘事，它可以比技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟更強大。
Western societies won′t collapse on climate change or unregulated capitalism. Both of these affect most the societies that are not in Western cultural sphere (Africa, Middle-East etc). West would be the least likely place to collapse in such circumstances as Western countries (maybe excluding Australia) has both the best-suited geographical location and the best-doing economies in the World.
If West collapses it collapses because Western values get challenged and rejected universally in a world where West simultaneously loses its political influence and anti-progress authoritarianism would take over. The collapse would not really be in relation to morality but it would have everything to do with values.
西方社會不會因為氣候變化或不受監(jiān)管的資本主義而崩潰。這兩種因素影響著大多不屬于西方文化領(lǐng)域的社會(非洲、中東等)。在這種情況下，西方國家是最不可能崩潰的地方，因為西方國家(可能不包括澳大利亞)擁有世界上最適合的地理位置和最好的經(jīng)濟體。
如果西方崩潰了，它會崩潰是因為西方價值觀在一個西方同時失去其政治影響力和反進步的威權(quán)主義將接管的世界中受到挑戰(zhàn)和普遍拒絕之下發(fā)生的。這種崩潰其實與道德無關(guān)，而是與價值觀有關(guān)。
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I lived overseas for most of my adult life, mostly Singapore and China. In the latter in particular it was very normal to read news articles about the coming collapse of the West. I wrote it all off as propaganda, perhaps with a tinge of jealousy. Then I came back to live in North America 4 years ago. I was shocked how much the culture had changed. We have indeed become weak and divided, and lost the principles that made us great. I now believe it’s a 50/50 proposition that the dystopian futures we see in most movies and TV shows these days will be the general reality of our lives within the next 25 years.
我成年后的大部分時間都生活在海外，主要是在新加坡和中國。尤其是在后者，閱讀有關(guān)西方即將崩潰的新聞報道是非常正常的。我認(rèn)為這是一種宣傳，也許帶著一絲嫉妒。但4年前我回到北美生活。我對文化的變化感到震驚。我們確實變得軟弱和分裂，失去了使我們變得偉大的原則。
我現(xiàn)在相信，我們現(xiàn)在在大多數(shù)電影和電視節(jié)目中看到的反烏托邦未來，在未來25年內(nèi)將成為我們生活的普遍現(xiàn)實，這是一個五五開的命題。
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I unfortunately agree, and fear for the immediate future of Western civilization.
However, even in the darkest times there is always hope, because just as how good times then led to weak men today, tough times today will eventually give rise to strong men tomorrow, and it is this next generation of strong men that will eventually correct the mistakes that we are making today, save the West in doing so, and return hope to us all. And as long as there is hope, it’s not over yet.
很不幸，但我同意，我對西方文明未來有一種恐懼感。
然而，即使是在最黑暗的時候，也總有希望，因為就像今天的好時光造就了今天的弱者，今天的艱難時光最終會造就明天的強者，而正是下一代的強者最終會糾正我們今天所犯的錯誤。這樣做可以拯救了西方世界，給我們所有人帶來希望。只要還有希望，一切就不會結(jié)束。
I wish I could be as optimistic but that standpoint is ignorant. Does it mean we have to wait for society to collapse before it is rebuild. Why lose all the progress when you can preserve it?
我希望我也能如此樂觀，但這種觀點是無知的。這是否意味著我們必須等到社會崩潰后才能重建?既然可以存活下去，為什么要失去所有的進步呢?
The West is a construction of 2000 years. It’s underpinnings, moorings, are Judeo-Christian values that incorporated various forms of European paganism (the end product of this synthesis is Christianity) and Roman jurisprudence. The syncretic product out of these is the Values of Enlightenment, the essence of humanism distilled out of many trials and tribulations. West can exist as an idea and physical entity only as long as it is tethered to its moorings. Once detached from the moorings it will be ready for take over by movements and ideologies opposed to Western civilizational values (values of Enlightenment), and the immediate candidate that comes to mind is Islam.
西方是一座2000年的建筑。它的基礎(chǔ)和支柱是猶太教和基督教的價值觀，它融合了各種形式的歐洲異教(這種綜合的最終產(chǎn)物是基督教)和羅馬法律學(xué)。這些思想融合而成的產(chǎn)物是啟蒙價值觀，是在歷盡磨難中提煉出來的人文精神的精華。西方可以作為一種理念和實體存在，只要它被堅持。
一旦脫離了束縛，它就會被反對西方文明價值觀(啟蒙價值觀)的運動和意識形態(tài)所接管，直接出現(xiàn)在腦海中的候選人就是伊斯蘭教。
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here we go again, I knew someone is going to bring Islam into it. If the “west" is destined to collapse it is going to be for it's unbelievable hubris and ignorance of what's going on around the world. “Islam” or “China” are not waiting in the bushes to jump at you people, we have our own problems and shenanigans to deal with. you're giving yourselves too much credit it's unbelievable. you're the ones who have been sticking your noses in other people's businesses for the last 500 years.
又來了，我就知道有人會把伊斯蘭教扯進來。如果“西方”注定要崩潰，那是因為它難以置信的傲慢和對世界各地正在發(fā)生的事情的無知。
“伊斯蘭”也好“中國”也罷，不會躲在灌木叢里伺機攻擊你們，我們有自己的問題要處理。你太高估自己了，太不可思議了。是你在過去的500年里一直在干涉別人的事情。
I agree with you overall but Islam was quite successful in getting into a lot of ‘people’s business’ for many centuries ~ the speed of their military expansion via the Arabs, and then the Turks was astounding.
No finger pointing please.
總的來說我同意你的觀點，但是伊斯蘭教在很多世紀(jì)里都非常成功地介入了很多‘民族的事務(wù)’，他們通過阿拉伯人和隨后的土耳其人進行軍事擴張的速度，令人震驚。
請不要互相指責(zé)。
everyone did it, but it's not Islam that's blaming Christians or westerners or the Chinese for it's problems all the time! what Islam has to do with the collapse of western civilization to be brought into the subject every single time?
每個人都這么做過，但伊斯蘭教沒有一直把問題歸咎于基督徒、西方人或中國人!伊斯蘭教與西方文明的崩潰有什么關(guān)系?
I agree with you 100%. The West is collapsing on its own.
No one is blaming Islam for the collapse of the West. Just saying that it might be one of the cultural forces that could sweep into the vacuum left by a collapsing and demographically shrinking West.
Personally I think the West will break up into a type of technological feudalism… :-(
Not a pretty picture.
我完全同意你的看法，西方正在自己崩潰。
沒有人將西方的崩潰歸咎于伊斯蘭教。我只是想說，它可能是一種文化力量，可以橫掃崩潰和人口萎縮的西方所留下的真空。
我個人認(rèn)為西方會分裂成一種技術(shù)上的封建主義……
這不是一幅美好的畫面。
Islam will not be the cause of the collapse of the West, Islam is not intellectually or materially equipped for it, but Islam is the primary candidate to be the beneficiary if that collapse ever happens.
伊斯蘭教不會是西方崩潰的原因，伊斯蘭教在知識上或物質(zhì)上都沒有為此做好準(zhǔn)備，但如果西方崩潰發(fā)生，伊斯蘭教是主要的受益者。
Islam doesn’t stand a chance in Europe? We thought the same thing about Nazism. That it would not gain control over the Europe of Enlightenment, individualism, and liberty. But history tells us otherwise, the darkness came (and was conquered, fortunately).
伊斯蘭教在歐洲沒有機會嗎？
我們對納粹主義也是這么想的，我們原以為它不會控制歐洲的啟蒙運動，個人主義和自由。但歷史告訴我們，黑暗降臨(幸運的是，它被征服了)。
first of all, are you seriously comparing nazism to Islam? secondly, who said anything about Islam standing or not standing a chance in Europe? you really think there's a master plan to control Europe? do you know we literally don't care about Europe? you're not the center of the universe mate, get over yourself. and if you're afraid of Islam or whatever, just ban it, make it illegal, problem solved. just for the love of God stop bitchining about it.
首先，你是在拿納粹和伊斯蘭教做比較，你認(rèn)真的?其次，誰說過伊斯蘭教在歐洲有機會或沒有機會了?你真的認(rèn)為有一個控制歐洲的藍圖嗎?你知道我們真的不關(guān)心歐洲嗎?
你不是宇宙的中心，伙計，別自以為是了。如果你害怕伊斯蘭教或其他什么，就禁止它，使它非法，問題就解決了?？丛谏系鄣姆萆蟿e再發(fā)牢騷了。
Just to mention, it is not about a ‘master plan’. It is about the inherent logic and motivations of authoritarian political ideologies such as Nazism and Islam that strive to reach a critical mass. The situation in which Islam attains the critical mass, the tipping point, may never happen in Europe. There is no possibility of the disaster happening in Europe, unless the West completely gives up upon the Enlightenment and humane values that created the West as we know.
值得一提的是，這不是一個“藍圖”。它是關(guān)于專制政治意識形態(tài)的內(nèi)在邏輯和動機，如納粹主義和伊斯蘭教，力求達到臨界點。
伊斯蘭教達到臨界規(guī)模、達到臨界點的情況，可能永遠(yuǎn)不會在歐洲發(fā)生。除非西方完全放棄創(chuàng)造了我們所知的、西方的啟蒙運動和人文價值，否則這場災(zāi)難不可能發(fā)生在歐洲。
To my mind the western world has no common focus, no ideology, no philosophy or even common enemy to unite against. There is of coarse capitalism and free market forces but that largely breeds inequality and simply boils down to a shallow desire for shiny new things. There is also a vague concept of “freedom” but that in reality is heavily dependent on having the financial resources to enjoy it. There is a growing uneducated feral underclass on the rise in every western country which consumes it's resources and gives nothing in return. There is little sense of community, duty or devotion to a greater cause than oneself. The west has become lazy, obese and entitled, no longer moving forward and willfully ignoring the lessons of the past. We will ultimately defeat ourselves because we deserve to be beaten. Societies evolve in the same way as living organisms do where the strong survive and flourish but eventually there is an inevitable decline and ultimately an extinction event. This decline is evident in the contemporary west as evidenced by it's self loathing and self consuming actions.
We used to stand for something, now we sit for nothing and helplessly watch the walls collapse around us.
在我看來，西方世界沒有共同的焦點，沒有意識形態(tài)，沒有哲學(xué)，甚至沒有共同的敵人需要大家聯(lián)合起來對抗。這里存在著粗糙的資本主義和自由市場力量，但這在很大程度上滋生了不平等，并簡單地歸結(jié)為對閃亮新事物的淺薄渴望。對于“自由”也有一個模糊的概念，但在現(xiàn)實中，它嚴(yán)重依賴于擁有享受它的財政資源。在每一個西方國家，都有越來越多的未受教育的野蠻下層階級在不斷增加，他們消耗自己的資源，卻不付出任何回報。
他們很少有集體意識、責(zé)任感或獻身于比自己更偉大的事業(yè)的意識。西方變得懶惰、肥胖、自以為是，不再前進，任性地忽視過去的教訓(xùn)。我們最終會打敗自己，因為我們活該被打敗。社會的進化方式與生物有機體的進化方式相同，強者生存并繁榮，但最終會不可避免地衰落，并最終發(fā)生滅絕事件。這種衰落在當(dāng)代西方是顯而易見的，自我厭惡和自我消費行為就是明證。
我們曾經(jīng)有自己的立場，現(xiàn)在我們什么都不做，眼睜睜地看著周圍的墻倒塌。
I think the decadence argument is an incredibly unfair characterization of the reasons for Roman decline. I can imagine it could be the reason given by the Christian prudes who came afterwards, which went on the lines of “Rome fell because the people were having too much sex and pleasure! Those horny horny buggers!”
This leaves unanswered the reality that the decline of the Roman Empire continued unabated in the subsequent ten centuries after Christianity became the imperial religion. No comments on that! If prudishness wasn’t the solution to the decline, maybe having too much sex wasn’t the reason for it either.
One has to look at the broad swathe of Eurasian history in this period of time - a few centuries - when, across practically the entire area, there was a significant upturn in political change. One definite factor which occurred at this point was the dispersal of the Central Asians in practically all directions. The Vandals and other “barbarian” peoples had been menacing Southern Europe for some time and it could have possibly been environmental factors (abrupt desertification, sudden loss of farmland) which finally drove them into desperation and a consequent fight for survival in the far richer Roman Empire to their south.
我認(rèn)為頹廢論是對羅馬衰落原因的極不公平的描述。
我可以想象，這可能是后來那些一本正經(jīng)的基督徒給出的理由，他們說:“羅馬衰落是因為人們有太多的性和愉悅！那些色批!”
這沒有回答一個事實：在基督教成為帝國宗教后的十個世紀(jì)里，羅馬帝國的衰落絲毫未減。然而這群人對此無可奉告！如果循規(guī)蹈矩不能解決衰落的問題，那么性生活過多恐怕也不是原因。
我們必須回顧歐亞大陸在這段時間(幾個世紀(jì))的廣闊歷史，當(dāng)時幾乎整個地區(qū)都出現(xiàn)了政治變革的顯著上漲。在這一點上發(fā)生的一個決定性因素是中亞人幾乎向各個方向擴散。汪達爾人和其他“野蠻人”威脅南歐已經(jīng)有一段時間了，這可能是環(huán)境因素(突然的沙漠化，突然失去農(nóng)田)最終使他們陷入絕望，并隨之跑去他們南方富裕得多的羅馬帝國為生存而戰(zhàn)。
The civilisational decline is another thing altogether, and, depending on where you stand with regards to clerical authority, it may have had something to do with the decline in the intellectual climate. Since the church claimed “to have the answer for everything”, they shunt out much progress and advancement which could have taken place had they been corralled within Syria.
為什么羅馬防御不了？也許他們沒有更新戰(zhàn)術(shù)。四帝共治的安排也可能與混亂的指揮體系聯(lián)系起來，以至于無法部署足夠的帝國軍隊來對付來自叢林的、討厭的恐怖分子。文明的衰落則完全是另一回事，這取決于你對宗教權(quán)威的看法，它可能與知識氛圍的衰落有關(guān)。由于教會聲稱“對一切都有答案”，他們排除了許多進步的觀點和思維。
“The East” is not so much overtaking you as much as copying your achievements. Their higher population numbers means that they will naturally be “l(fā)arger” economy-wise. But as for ruling trends, the West continues to be the validation ground where things are assessed and qualified.
它道出了一些關(guān)于西方當(dāng)前狀態(tài)的、不必要的東西：你的衰落并不是因為你有太多的性生活或因為你太頹廢(不管那意味著什么)。總的來說，今天的西方人口實際上比世界上任何其他人口群體都更認(rèn)真、更勤勞、更有生產(chǎn)力和更自由。盡管存在種種缺陷，西方的自由仍令全世界羨慕。西方的知識氛圍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了世界其他地區(qū)加起來所能提供的一切。
與其說“東方”超越了你，不如說它復(fù)制了你的成就。他們更多的人口數(shù)量意味著他們自然會在經(jīng)濟方面“更大”。但就統(tǒng)治趨勢而言，西方仍然是評估和判定事物的驗證地。