網(wǎng)民討論：日本 - 人口減少是國家毀滅的萬能公式
Depopulation a surefire formula for national ruin
譯文簡介
這是7月17日 發(fā)表于今日日本網(wǎng)站上的文章及網(wǎng)民就日本人口問題的討論
正文翻譯
Depopulation a surefire formula for national ruin
July 17 ? Japan Today
人口減少是國家毀滅的萬能公式
7 月 17 日 發(fā)表于：今日日本網(wǎng)站
TOKYO-- talk about depressing headlines: "A great prophesy of Japan's demise. The frightening result of depopulation."
東京——談?wù)摿钊司趩实念^條新聞：“日本滅亡的偉大預(yù)言。人口減少的可怕結(jié)果?！?/b>
東京——談?wù)摿钊司趩实念^條新聞：“日本滅亡的偉大預(yù)言。人口減少的可怕結(jié)果?！?/b>
First of all, let's look at a paper on population statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare issued on June 3. After noting that 811,604 new infants were born in Japan during 2021, it pointed out that the average number of births per female had dropped for the sixth straight year, to 1.30.
"Twenty years from now, we'll be looking at a shortfall of 2 million care providers for the elderly," predicts professor Masahiro Yamada of Chuo University. "To fill that number would require half of the nation's new graduates every year. Paying costs for care won't be difficult for the wealthy, but for the rest, it won't be feasible. We'll be faced with the choice of either reducing services or relying on foreign labor; but as Japan becomes poorer, I don't know how we'll get foreign workers to come here."
The present situation, of elderly people caring for other elderly, has become a common occurrence, and this can only get worse, frets the writer, so increasing cases of kodokushi (dying alone) can be expected.
On May 7, Tesla CEO Elon Musk -- not exactly a Japan expert -- made headlines with a tweet that read, "At the risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birthrate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world."
首先，讓我們看一下厚生勞動省6月3日發(fā)布的人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。在注意到2021年日本有811,604名新生兒出生后，它指出每名女性的平均出生人數(shù)連續(xù)第六年下降至 1.30。
“從現(xiàn)在開始的 20 年后，我們將面臨 200 萬個為老年人提供護(hù)理人員的缺口，”中央大學(xué)的山田雅弘教授預(yù)測。“要填補這個數(shù)字，需要每年全國一半的應(yīng)屆大學(xué)畢業(yè)生。支付護(hù)理費用對富人來說并不難，但對于其余的人來說，這將是難以承受的。我們將面臨選擇要么減少服務(wù)，要么依賴外國勞動力；但隨著日本變得更窮，我不知道我們將如何讓外國工人來這里?！?br /> 目前，老人照顧其他老人的情況已經(jīng)司空見慣，而且這種情況只會變得更糟，作者擔(dān)心，因此可以預(yù)期會增加孤獨死（孤身一人去世）的情況。
5 月 7 日，特斯拉的首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克（他并不是日本情況的專家）以一條推文登上了頭條，上面寫著：“冒著顯而易見的風(fēng)險，除非有什么改變導(dǎo)致出生率超過死亡率，否則日本最終將不復(fù)存在。這將是世界的巨大損失?！?/b>
"Twenty years from now, we'll be looking at a shortfall of 2 million care providers for the elderly," predicts professor Masahiro Yamada of Chuo University. "To fill that number would require half of the nation's new graduates every year. Paying costs for care won't be difficult for the wealthy, but for the rest, it won't be feasible. We'll be faced with the choice of either reducing services or relying on foreign labor; but as Japan becomes poorer, I don't know how we'll get foreign workers to come here."
The present situation, of elderly people caring for other elderly, has become a common occurrence, and this can only get worse, frets the writer, so increasing cases of kodokushi (dying alone) can be expected.
On May 7, Tesla CEO Elon Musk -- not exactly a Japan expert -- made headlines with a tweet that read, "At the risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birthrate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world."
首先，讓我們看一下厚生勞動省6月3日發(fā)布的人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。在注意到2021年日本有811,604名新生兒出生后，它指出每名女性的平均出生人數(shù)連續(xù)第六年下降至 1.30。
“從現(xiàn)在開始的 20 年后，我們將面臨 200 萬個為老年人提供護(hù)理人員的缺口，”中央大學(xué)的山田雅弘教授預(yù)測。“要填補這個數(shù)字，需要每年全國一半的應(yīng)屆大學(xué)畢業(yè)生。支付護(hù)理費用對富人來說并不難，但對于其余的人來說，這將是難以承受的。我們將面臨選擇要么減少服務(wù)，要么依賴外國勞動力；但隨著日本變得更窮，我不知道我們將如何讓外國工人來這里?！?br /> 目前，老人照顧其他老人的情況已經(jīng)司空見慣，而且這種情況只會變得更糟，作者擔(dān)心，因此可以預(yù)期會增加孤獨死（孤身一人去世）的情況。
5 月 7 日，特斯拉的首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克（他并不是日本情況的專家）以一條推文登上了頭條，上面寫著：“冒著顯而易見的風(fēng)險，除非有什么改變導(dǎo)致出生率超過死亡率，否則日本最終將不復(fù)存在。這將是世界的巨大損失?！?/b>
Part of the looming problem will be caused by the huge demographic bulge of the postwar baby boomers, born between 1947 to 1949, who are now turning 75 years of age. With the decline in hospital beds, as people in this group begin to die out, 400,000 or more stand to become "refugees with no place to die."
If the present trend continues, by 2040, Japan will have become a "super-aged society," in which the burden of supporting an elderly person will fall on one out of every 1.5 households.
While numerous factors figure in population decline, one of the main causes is clearly shortsighted policies aimed at encouraging families to procreate. According to a survey by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in 2017, Japan's outlays for child rearing relative to GDP were 1.79% -- below the OECD member average of 2.34% and, for example, less than half of the 3.6% spent by France.
迫在眉睫的問題的部分原因?qū)⑹菓?zhàn)后嬰兒潮一代的巨大人口膨脹，他們出生于 1947 年至 1949 年之間，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng) 75 歲了。隨著病床的減少，隨著這一群體的人開始去世，40萬或更多人將成為“無處可去的難民”。
如果按照目前的趨勢繼續(xù)下去，到 2040 年，日本將成為“超高齡社會”，每 1.5 戶家庭中就有一人要承擔(dān)贍養(yǎng)老人的負(fù)擔(dān)。
雖然人口下降的因素很多，但主要原因之一顯然是在鼓勵家庭生育的政策性短視。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織的一項調(diào)查，2017 年，日本的育兒支出占 GDP 的比重為 1.79%，低于經(jīng)合組織成員國 2.34% 的平均水平，例如，還不到法國投入3.6%的一半。
If the present trend continues, by 2040, Japan will have become a "super-aged society," in which the burden of supporting an elderly person will fall on one out of every 1.5 households.
While numerous factors figure in population decline, one of the main causes is clearly shortsighted policies aimed at encouraging families to procreate. According to a survey by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in 2017, Japan's outlays for child rearing relative to GDP were 1.79% -- below the OECD member average of 2.34% and, for example, less than half of the 3.6% spent by France.
迫在眉睫的問題的部分原因?qū)⑹菓?zhàn)后嬰兒潮一代的巨大人口膨脹，他們出生于 1947 年至 1949 年之間，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng) 75 歲了。隨著病床的減少，隨著這一群體的人開始去世，40萬或更多人將成為“無處可去的難民”。
如果按照目前的趨勢繼續(xù)下去，到 2040 年，日本將成為“超高齡社會”，每 1.5 戶家庭中就有一人要承擔(dān)贍養(yǎng)老人的負(fù)擔(dān)。
雖然人口下降的因素很多，但主要原因之一顯然是在鼓勵家庭生育的政策性短視。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織的一項調(diào)查，2017 年，日本的育兒支出占 GDP 的比重為 1.79%，低于經(jīng)合組織成員國 2.34% 的平均水平，例如，還不到法國投入3.6%的一半。
"Take Hungary, for example, which to deal with a decline in births devotes just under 5% of its GDP to families," points out the aforementioned professor Yamada. "School tuition there is free, and home purchases are generously subsidized. In the case a fourth child is born, the family's taxes are permanently exempted.
"For Japan to match European countries in measures to encourage the birth rate, it would need to devote a quarter of its national budget," he added.
What's the main cause of decline in the country's birthrate? As Yamada puts it, "There have only been small, incremental changes in Japan's societal values from its postwar period of high economic growth, when the prevailing view was, 'the husbands went to work, and the wives remained home and did housework.'"
The magazine noted that in the run-up to the July 10 elections, none of the major parties proposed any new changes to their population policies, so whichever party wins will be moot. Japan, clearly, has embarked on a road to ruin.
“以匈牙利為例，為了應(yīng)對出生率下降，該國將 5% 的 GDP 用于家庭，”山田教授指出。“那里的學(xué)費是免費的，買房有慷慨的補貼。如果生了第四個孩子，家庭就可以永遠(yuǎn)免稅?！?br /> 他補充說：“要讓日本在鼓勵出生率的措施上與歐洲國家相媲美，它需要拿出四分之一的國家預(yù)算用于這方面?！?br /> 我國出生率下降的主要原因是什么？正如山田所說，“日本的社會價值觀在戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長時期只發(fā)生了微小的漸進(jìn)式變化，當(dāng)時流行的觀點是‘丈夫去工作，妻子留在家里做家務(wù)’。 "
該雜志指出，在 7 月 10 日選舉前夕，沒有一個主要政黨提議對其人口政策進(jìn)行任何新的改變，因此無論哪個政黨獲勝都將是沒有實際意義的。顯然，日本已經(jīng)走上了毀滅之路。
"For Japan to match European countries in measures to encourage the birth rate, it would need to devote a quarter of its national budget," he added.
What's the main cause of decline in the country's birthrate? As Yamada puts it, "There have only been small, incremental changes in Japan's societal values from its postwar period of high economic growth, when the prevailing view was, 'the husbands went to work, and the wives remained home and did housework.'"
The magazine noted that in the run-up to the July 10 elections, none of the major parties proposed any new changes to their population policies, so whichever party wins will be moot. Japan, clearly, has embarked on a road to ruin.
“以匈牙利為例，為了應(yīng)對出生率下降，該國將 5% 的 GDP 用于家庭，”山田教授指出。“那里的學(xué)費是免費的，買房有慷慨的補貼。如果生了第四個孩子，家庭就可以永遠(yuǎn)免稅?！?br /> 他補充說：“要讓日本在鼓勵出生率的措施上與歐洲國家相媲美，它需要拿出四分之一的國家預(yù)算用于這方面?！?br /> 我國出生率下降的主要原因是什么？正如山田所說，“日本的社會價值觀在戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長時期只發(fā)生了微小的漸進(jìn)式變化，當(dāng)時流行的觀點是‘丈夫去工作，妻子留在家里做家務(wù)’。 "
該雜志指出，在 7 月 10 日選舉前夕，沒有一個主要政黨提議對其人口政策進(jìn)行任何新的改變，因此無論哪個政黨獲勝都將是沒有實際意義的。顯然，日本已經(jīng)走上了毀滅之路。
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All talk in Japan, and no concrete actions.
日本一直都是空談，沒有具體行動。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
There are a few major cultural factors.
Japan discriminates against women in the workforce. Compare to Europe, US or even China Japan does not allow women access to a career path or powerful positions in the workplace.
Japan is unfriendly to immigrants. Getting work in Japan is difficult, and even if you do, you cannot become a citizen without Japanese ancestry, and even if your kids are born in Japan they are still considered immigrants.
Lack of incentives for childbearing. Japan honors its elderly but seems embarrassed to procreate. They don't have incentives for childbirth. They don't have encouragement for young people to get married and settle down. Their aren't inducements for families to have a fourth child. How would Japanese view a woman who has 4 kids before the age of 30? How would Japanese view a man who has 4 kids, and works a white collar job? They need an attitude adjustment about work life balance.
這有幾個主要的文化因素。
日本在勞動力中歧視女性。與歐洲、美國甚至中國相比，日本不允許女性進(jìn)入職業(yè)道路或在工作場所擔(dān)任重要職位。
日本對移民不友好。在日本找工作很困難，即使你做了，沒有日本血統(tǒng)你也不能成為公民，即使你的孩子在日本出生，他們?nèi)匀槐徽J(rèn)為是外來移民。
缺乏對生育的激勵。日本尊重老年人，但似乎對生育感到尷尬。他們沒有生育的動機。他們不鼓勵年輕人結(jié)婚和安定下來。他們不是誘使家庭生第四個孩子。日本人會如何看待一個 30 歲之前有 4 個孩子的女人？日本人會如何看待一個有 4 個孩子并從事白領(lǐng)工作的男人？他們需要調(diào)整工作生活平衡的態(tài)度。像馬丁路德一樣：他主張結(jié)束文職獨身，但他也決定自己結(jié)婚生子。
Looks like the J-gov will need a large influx of tax money to help support the elderly.
看起來日本政府將需要大量稅收來幫助支持老年人。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
There is no way to solve the birthrate crisis without solving the overwork crisis. People who routinely work until 8pm or later do not have time or energy to make or take care of babies and then kids.
不解決過度勞累危機，就無法解決生育危機。經(jīng)常工作到晚上 8 點以及更晚的人沒有時間或精力來生產(chǎn)或是照顧嬰兒和孩子。
The real problem is that Baby Boomers must be the most selfish generation in history. This problem, at its core, is all about "Who's going to take care of me and support me when I'm old?" Younger generations deserve their own futures - they shouldn't be treated like indentured servants working to supported a bloated population of elders whose reckless fiscal policies created their own situation. Sad as it is in many cases, the future of society is the youth. Sure, old people should be helped, but not at the cost of destroying the future of the youth.
People used to understand this. You want Japan to have a future? Get rid of the bloated bureaucracy and old politicians and give the younger generation a chance to build a strong country.
真正的問題是，嬰兒潮一代一定是歷史上最自私的一代。這個問題的核心是“當(dāng)我老了誰來照顧我和支持我？” 年輕一代應(yīng)該擁有自己的未來——他們不應(yīng)該被視為契約仆人，他們努力支持臃腫的老年人口，他們魯莽的財政政策造成了他們自己的處境。在許多情況下很可悲，社會的未來是青年。當(dāng)然，應(yīng)該幫助老年人，但不能以破壞年輕人的未來為代價。
人們習(xí)慣于理解這一點。你希望日本有未來嗎？擺脫臃腫的官僚機構(gòu)和老政客，給年輕一代建設(shè)強國的機會。
The real problem is that Baby Boomers must be the most selfish generation in history.
Sigh. How parochial. Baby boomers only exist in the US. Blaming low birth rates on baby boomers does nothing to explain the low birth rates in places like PR China, South Korea, Singapore, Italy or Russia.
understands the real problem, long workdays leaving workers with no time or energy for families. I will add a second thought for your consideration, namely living in high rise housing estates. How do you raise kids in a concrete high rise? No yard, no place for the kid to play safely outdoors unless a parent takes time away from their home to supervise their kids in a park. When I was a kid my mom would shoo me outside saying "go out and play" so she could get stuff done in the home. Same for the neighbor moms so the kids would play in the front yards of the homes. Can't do that when you live in the concrete jungle. So blame long workdays and demanding jobs, but also blame dense urban living.
“真正的問題是，嬰兒潮一代一定是歷史上最自私的一代?！?br /> 嘆氣。這想法是多么狹隘。嬰兒潮一代只存在于美國。將低出生率歸咎于嬰兒潮一代并不能解釋中國、韓國、新加坡、意大利或俄羅斯等地的低出生率。
要理解真正的問題，漫長的工作日讓上班族沒有時間或精力照顧家人。我再補充一個想法供你考慮，即住在高層住宅區(qū)。你如何在混凝土高層中撫養(yǎng)孩子？沒有院子，沒有地方讓孩子在戶外安全玩耍，除非父母花時間離開家在公園里監(jiān)督孩子。當(dāng)我還是個孩子的時候，我媽媽會把我趕到外面說“出去玩”，這樣她就可以在家里做事了。鄰居的媽媽也一樣，所以孩子們會在家里的前院玩耍。當(dāng)你住在混凝土叢林中時，不能這樣做。所以歸咎于長時間的工作日和要求苛刻的工作，但也歸咎于密集的城市生活。
they knew this would happen for decades and they continued kicking the can down the road.
NO ONE wanted to address the problem early on and all we heard is Japan is not a multicultural nation and doesn't want to be.
they could have solved this problem 20 years ago and had slow and careful immigration into the country, but they chose not to
OF COURSE no one wants to come and work here now. Japanese wages are extremely low for a developed nation and on top of that, they are not allowing real immigration- just a promise to allow guest workers to work 5 years and that's it. And they don't pay them enough to send money home.
Japan as usual boo woo wooing but this was their doing
他們幾十年前就知道這會發(fā)生了，他們只是繼續(xù)拖延時間而已。
沒有人想盡早解決這個問題，我們聽到的只是日本不是、也不想成為一個多元文化的國家。
他們本可以在 20 年前通過緩慢而謹(jǐn)慎地（吸收）移民到這個國家解決這個問題，但他們選擇“不”
當(dāng)然，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒人愿意來這里工作。對于發(fā)達(dá)國家來說，日本的工資極低，最重要的是，他們不允許真正的移民——只是承諾允許外來工人工作 5 年，僅此而已。而且他們付給他們的錢不足以寄錢回家。
日本像往常一樣噓聲求愛，但這就是他們的所作所為
Much of the rest of the world is falling into a similar demographic decline. India’s birth rate fell below replacement rate this year. Japan is lucky to have the Philippines and Indonesia in their neighborhood, but immigration isn’t really a solution.
Hopefully immigration, automation, and capital investment can work as a stop gap until the demographic bulge passes away, but Japan is at the front of a crisis facing most countries. They need to start major policies to try and stimulate their birth rate.
世界其他大部分地區(qū)也正在陷入類似的人口衰退。印度今年的出生率低于更替率。日本很幸運有菲律賓和印度尼西亞在他們的附近，但移民并不是真正的解決方案。
希望移民、自動化和資本投資可以作為一個權(quán)宜之計，直到人口膨脹消失，但日本正處于大多數(shù)國家面臨的危機的前沿。他們需要啟動重大政策來嘗試刺激他們的出生率。
What's killing it is 996 culture. They have literally no time to even think about dating or having babies.
996 Culture: 9 am to 9 pm, 6 days a week. The people don't have to work more than 8 hours, but that's the work centric culture. If you are not doing 996 and your competitor is or coworker is, then you are "losing" your future.
導(dǎo)致這種局面的是996文化。他們幾乎沒有時間考慮約會或生孩子。
996 文化：每周 6 天，上午 9 點至晚上 9 點。人們不必工作超過 8 小時，但這就是以工作為中心的文化。如果你不執(zhí)行 996 而你的競爭對手或同事在做，那么你就會“失去”你的未來。
What is actually destroying the population pyramid is their racist take on immigration. A wealthy country like Japan could have been absorbing easily 1M inmigrants per year, mostly from SA. After decades these people would mostly integrated and be part of a Japanese melting pot.
But they have always put big barriers to people immigrating permanently to Japan. And it’s biting their asses.
PS, Spain has similar life expectancy and natality rate. But since late 90s around half a million inmigrants started to enter per year during the growth years. Lately we are in just 250k net inmigrants, not enough but a big relief, especially because most inmigrants usually are in their 20s and early 30s
真正摧毀人口金字塔的是他們對移民的種族主義態(tài)度。像日本這樣的富裕國家每年可以輕松吸收 100 萬移民，其中大部分來自東南亞。幾十年后，這些人大多會融合并成為日本大熔爐的一部分。
但他們一直對永久移民日本設(shè)置很大的障礙?，F(xiàn)在這個問題正在咬他們的屁股。
順便說下，西班牙的預(yù)期壽命和出生率（都與日本）相似。但自 90 年代后期以來，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時期，每年約有 50 萬移民進(jìn)入。最近我們的凈移民人數(shù)只有 25 萬，這還不夠，但讓我們松了一口氣，尤其是因為大多數(shù)移民通常都在 20 多歲和 30 多歲出頭
The demographics of Japan are really really bad though and that is how societies end.
日本的人口結(jié)構(gòu)確實非常糟糕，這就是社會的終結(jié)方式。
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Japan isn’t even an outlier in their birth rate. Similar countries include Canada, Spain, Poland, Finland, Italy, Greece. South Korea is even lower.
If you want to offer an explanation for low birth rates, make sure the explanation is universal enough to cover these countries as well. They all have wildly different cultures and government programs but have the same result. So don’t pin it on work culture and hentai porn.
日本的出生率甚至不能算作是異常值。類似的國家包括加拿大、西班牙、波蘭、芬蘭、意大利、希臘。韓國甚至更低。
如果你想為低出生率提供解釋，請確保該解釋的普遍性足以涵蓋這些國家。他們都有截然不同的文化和政府規(guī)劃，但結(jié)果相同。所以不要把這個問題釘在工作文化和無盡的色情片上。
Japan also makes it suck to be a mother, and Japanese men dont help out with anything either.
在日本做母親也很糟糕，日本男人也不愿幫忙。
Absolutely. I listened to a podcast that covered this (I think it was The Daily but I'm not sure). Expectations for mothers and fathers are so stringent that they featured one Japanese man that was so unconfident in his parenting abilities that he didn't even feel comfortable taking their kids to school alone without the oversight of his wife. Why would you want to be a parent in an environment like that?
沒錯兒。我在一個播客上聽過涵蓋這個的內(nèi)容（我認(rèn)為是The Daily，但我不確定）。（日本人）對父母的期望如此嚴(yán)格，以至于其中一位日本男子對自己的育兒能力如此不自信，以至于他甚至不愿意在沒有妻子監(jiān)督的情況下獨自帶孩子去上學(xué)。為什么要在這樣的環(huán)境中做父母？
Japanese men are also dropping out of dating entirely because Japanese women have such insanely high expectations, and the job market is so competitive.
日本男人也放棄約會，完全是因為日本女人的期望太高了，而且就業(yè)市場競爭如此激烈。
What do Japanese women want??
日本女性想要什么？？
Not much different from other countries with conservative cultures. High salary, good educational background, good looks, good family background, good social skills, and other personal preferences. With a tough labor market, low pay, terrible working hours, and high costs of raising children, the prospects of marriage become less appealing.
與其他具有保守文化的國家沒有太大區(qū)別。薪資高、學(xué)歷好、相貌漂亮、家庭背景好、社交能力強等喜好。由于勞動力市場艱難、工資低、工作時間長、撫養(yǎng)孩子的成本高，婚姻的前景變得不那么吸引人了。
One of the issues I haven’t seen mentioned yet… in Japan the default expectation is still that a woman will quit (or substantially scale back) her career to become a full time mother. Childcare has traditionally not been available, and now that it’s more common they also have a shortage of childcare workers (owed in part due to discrimination towards mothers in the field, ironically).
But women are educated, they’re cosmopolitan, and they want to work. They don’t want to give up their careers and ambitions.
So they want one of two things: (1) A man who is successful and charming enough to make being a SAHM appealing. This is a high standard. Very few men meet this standard, and it’s an incredibly stressful situation to have to maintain. (2) They have to be successful-ish, willing to help with childcare, and have a job that lets them help with childcare. Because of how rigid Japanese work culture is, I’d argue this is an even harder achievement. There are very few jobs that would allow two parents to meaningfully split the burden of childcare.
So it’s not so much that Japanese women have unrealistic standards. It’s that Japanese work culture and social services are about two decades behind on making the structural changes necessary to support what women want. And (understandably) very few men can make up for the gap left by the government on that front.
我還沒有看到提到的一個問題……在日本，默認(rèn)的期望仍然是女性將退出（或大幅縮減）她的職業(yè)生涯以成為一名全職母親。傳統(tǒng)上社會不提供托兒服務(wù)，現(xiàn)在更普遍的是，他們也缺乏托兒工作者（具有諷刺意味的是，部分原因是該領(lǐng)域?qū)δ赣H的歧視）。
但是女性受過教育，她們是世界性的，她們想要工作。她們不想放棄自己的事業(yè)和抱負(fù)。
所以她們想要兩件事之一：（1）一個成功和迷人的男人，足以讓婚姻具有吸引力。這是一個很高的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。很少有人能達(dá)到這個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這是一個非常緊張的情況，必須維持。（2）他們必須成功，愿意幫助照顧孩子，并且有一份工作可以讓他們幫助照顧孩子。由于日本的工作文化是多么僵化，我認(rèn)為這是一個更難達(dá)成的成就。很少有工作可以讓兩個父母有意義地分擔(dān)育兒負(fù)擔(dān)。
所以并不是說日本女性有不切實際的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。日本的工作文化和社會服務(wù)在進(jìn)行必要的結(jié)構(gòu)性變革以支持女性想要的東西方面落后了大約 20 年。而且（可以理解）很少有人能彌補政府在這方面留下的差距。
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It’s a negative feedback loop a lot of the time.
Women in Japan, like most women in the west, don’t want to marry a man who earns less than them.
As a result a man must work himself to the bone in order to progress in his career to earn enough to convince a woman that he is worthy of marriage, but the irony is that said woman’s very presence in the labour market has made it that much harder for him to progress into a higher earning position.
A lot of men are now realising that the sheer amount of effort it will take to be able to get married, while also seeing how miserable their fathers/older co-workers are in their own marriages, where the woman controls 100% of the spending while he works 14 hour days, means that they’ve decided that they’ll be happier just living off of their parents/welfare, and living a very minimalist life of playing video games/watching porn.
It’s a complicated issue, and it isn’t one that can be solved by any one thing the government could do.
很多時候這是一個負(fù)反饋循環(huán)。
日本的女性和西方的大多數(shù)女性一樣，不想嫁給一個收入比她們低的男人。
結(jié)果，一個男人必須竭盡全力才能在事業(yè)上取得進(jìn)步，以賺取足夠的錢來說服一個女人值得與他結(jié)婚，但具有諷刺意味的是，這個女人在勞動力市場上的存在就讓如此之多地令他更難進(jìn)入更高收入的職位。
很多男人現(xiàn)在意識到結(jié)婚需要付出巨大的努力，同時也看到他們的父親以及年長的同事在自己的婚姻中是多么痛苦，女人控制著家庭 100% 的支出，雖然他每天工作 14 小時。這意味著他們已經(jīng)決定他們會更快樂地靠父母或政府福利為生，過玩電子游戲/看色情片的極簡生活。
這是一個復(fù)雜的問題，不是政府能做的任何一件事就能解決的。
I think a lot of their expectations are not to have to do all of the house work and all of the child rasing and all of the taking care of elderly parents, and it doesn't help that on top of that japanese employers expect everyone in work to do overtime even if they just sit there doing nothing. Remaining single means that they only have to deal with a crappy work environment and elderly parents.
我認(rèn)為他們的很多期望不是必須做所有的家務(wù)活，所有的孩子撫養(yǎng)和所有的照顧年邁的父母，除此之外，日本雇主希望每個人都在（辦公室）即使他們只是坐在那里無所事事，而且必須加班。保持單身意味著他們只需要應(yīng)對糟糕的工作環(huán)境和年邁的父母。
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Until there is a culture shift in how Japan handles working life, then it isn’t going to change.
Officially, Japan’s annual leave allowances etc are all very generous, but the issue is that because the market is just SO competitive, that individual workers are terrified of taking any kind of time off at all, because they need every single advantage possible, so it becomes a race to the bottom to see who can devote the most amount of time to appearing busy to the bosses.
The only solution is for these old farts to be forcibly retired, their utterly outdated notions of work and productivity has massively held Japan back over the last few years, hence why Japan, for example, still has such a reliance on fax machines and landline phones, why it is still so heavily cash based, and why there is often such a reluctance to modernise.
Japan’s culture is naturally conservative, but in the worst possible way, an attitude of resisting change for its own sake.
Look at how Japan was opened up to the world, it took a military expedition from the US to force it to do so.
在日本處理工作生活的方式發(fā)生文化上的轉(zhuǎn)變之前，這種（人口趨勢）不會改變。
從官方層面上說，日本的年假津貼等都非常慷慨，但問題是，由于市場競爭如此激烈，個別工人根本不敢請假，因為他們需要所有可能的(表現(xiàn)出自己的)優(yōu)勢，所以它變成了一場逐底追逐底線的競賽，看誰能花最多的時間在老板面前顯得很忙。
唯一的解決辦法是讓這些老家伙們強制退休，他們完全過時的工作和生產(chǎn)力觀念在過去幾年里極大地阻礙了日本，這就是為什么日本仍然如此依賴傳真機和固定電話的原因，為什么它仍然如此依賴現(xiàn)金，為什么經(jīng)常如此不愿現(xiàn)代化。
日本的文化自然是保守的，但最糟糕的是，一種為自身而抵制變革的態(tài)度。
看看日本是如何向世界開放的，它需要美國的一次軍事遠(yuǎn)征才迫使它這樣做。
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Making it easier to be a mother doesn't seem to be helping the Scandinavian countries bring up the birth rate either.
做母親更容易似乎也沒有幫助斯堪的納維亞國家提高出生率。
1.7 per Woman vs 1.36 is significantly more, and recent studies have been showing that one thing Japan actually does right is that it builds enough housing. Something that Sweden hasn't been doing. So Sweden and other Nordic nations could probably increase their birth rates by just building more housing.
（斯堪的納維亞國家）每位女性 1.7 與（日本的） 1.36 相比要高得多了，最近的研究表明，日本實際上做對了的一件事是它建造了足夠的住房。這是瑞典沒有做過的事情。因此，瑞典和其他北歐國家可能會通過建造更多住房來提高出生率。
I don't know the housing situation in Japan, but I feel like the rising house prices contributes to lower birth rates. If you have to live with your parents until your mid 30s saving for a house, you aren't having children in that home. By the time you have the space to have kids it might be too late.
It feels like there's plenty of things a government could do to raise birth rates, they just don't want to. And that's maybe for the best for the planet. There's only so much topsoil, after all.
我不知道日本的住房情況，但我覺得房價上漲對降低出生率有幫助。如果你必須為買房子存錢而被迫與父母住在一起直到 30 多歲，那么你在那個房子里就不可能有孩子。而當(dāng)你有空間生育孩子時，可能為時已晚。
感覺政府可以做很多事情來提高出生率，但他們只是不想這樣做。不過這或許對地球是最好的，畢竟只有這么多的土地面積。
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It's true that there may be a correlation. During Japan's biggest economic boom in the 80s, Tokyo had the highest real estate prices anywhere in the world. Famously the Imperial Palace was valued at more than the entire state of Florida. And was the mid 80s that the Japanese birthrate really began to fall and never recover.
確實可能存在相關(guān)性。在 80 年代日本經(jīng)濟(jì)最繁榮的時期，東京的房地產(chǎn)價格是世界上最高的。眾所周知，皇宮那么大地塊的價格超過了整個佛羅里達(dá)州。80 年代中期，日本的出生率真正開始下降并且再也沒有恢復(fù)。
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Houses in the Japan countryside are almost free now. Without conditions they're super cheap. Last I checked there were 8 million abandoned houses. The deflationary pressure keeps rents relatively cheap in the cities.
日本農(nóng)村的房子現(xiàn)在幾乎是免費的。沒有條件，它們超級便宜。上次我查過有800萬座被廢棄的房屋。通縮壓力使城市里的租金也相對便宜。
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I'm guessing economic opportunities in rural areas of Japan is very limited though. Somehow I doubt Japan's work culture is super open to remote work
我猜日本農(nóng)村地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)機會非常有限。不知何故，我懷疑日本的工作文化對遠(yuǎn)程工作是否超級開放
True.Due to land tax and property tax, heirs of many rural properties have given up on them. Even about 10% of the housing in Tokyo is abandoned too.
沒錯兒。由于土地稅和房產(chǎn)稅，許多農(nóng)村地區(qū)房產(chǎn)的繼承人都放棄了它們。甚至在東京也有約 10%的住房被廢棄。
It feels like there’s plenty of things a government could do to raise birth rates
I haven’t seen any evidence that anything a government has ever done has resulted in birth rates increasing. Plenty of places have generous parental leave, large subsidies per child, property subsidies, free childcare, tax breaks, yet nothing works.
“感覺政府可以做很多事情來提高出生率”
我沒有看到任何證據(jù)表明政府所做的任何事情都會導(dǎo)致出生率上升。很多地方有慷慨的育兒假、每個孩子的巨額補貼、財產(chǎn)補貼、免費托兒服務(wù)、稅收減免，但沒有起到任何效果。
People will not have more kids until there's a material reason to do so. Birth rates are so high in the places they are because kids help you on your farm, in your work, taking care of family, etc. Kids in the US and EU are a net negative to the parents from a cost-analysis perspective. Having to pay for childcare, and then for college, and other expenses is the opposite of how this has worked for the majority of human history.
In the olden times if you were in farming you needed children, and a lot of people were in farming. Children often did less dangerous domestic jobs (including taking care of other children) and worked for the family until they were ready to strike out on their own.
除非有物質(zhì)上的理由，否則人們不會愿意要更多的孩子。（以前的）出生率之所以如此之高，是因為孩子們在農(nóng)場、工作、照顧家庭等方面可以為你提供幫助。從成本分析的角度來看，美國和歐盟的孩子對父母來說是一個凈負(fù)面因素。父母必須為他支付托兒費用，然后支付大學(xué)費用和其他費用，這與人類歷史上大部分時間的運作方式相反。
在過去，如果你從事農(nóng)業(yè)，你需要孩子，而且很多人都從事農(nóng)業(yè)。孩子們經(jīng)常從事不那么危險的家務(wù)工作（包括照顧其他孩子）并為家庭工作，直到他們準(zhǔn)備好獨立成家。
China in the 50s seems like an example, but I'm not sure exactly what the government did other than outright say "have more babies" and that seemed to be it.
50 年代的中國似乎是一個例子，但我不確定政府到底做了什么，除了直接說“生更多的孩子”，似乎就是這樣。
There is always a population boom after a war, China’s population rate didn’t grow at a dramatically higher rate than most other places.
戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束后總會有人口激增，中國那時的人口增長率并沒有比其他大多數(shù)地方更高。
The reality is that raising kids just kind of sucks.
Once women have any kind of better options, they tend to chose that over motherhood for very obvious reasons.
現(xiàn)實是，撫養(yǎng)孩子是糟心事。
一旦女性有任何更好的選擇，出于非常明顯的原因，她們都傾向于選擇它而不是當(dāng)媽媽。
The purpose of a lot of these articles is to critique Japan's strict immigration policies. Japan is frequently criticized for not accepting more immigrants, refugees, etc as they wish to keep their population homogeneous and reject the immigration paths followed by western Europe and the US
許多這些文章的目的是批評日本嚴(yán)格的移民政策。日本經(jīng)常被批評不接受更多的移民、難民等，因為他們希望保持人口同質(zhì)化并拒絕西歐和美國所走的（吸收外來）移民道路
And we have to remember, they never wanted to START letting people IN. The west pushed that issue and they've been wanting to close that door ever since.
我們必須記住，他們從來不想讓（外來）人進(jìn)來。西方推動了這個問題，從那以后他們還是一直想關(guān)上那扇門。
Yup. Gunboat diplomacy courtesy of Perry and his ‘Black Ships’.
是的。炮艇外交來自佩里和他的“黑船”。
If only we could allow some sort of movement of peoples from one area of the globe where work is scarce to another area of the world where work is more plentiful…
Too bad Japan is so fearful of immigrants
要是我們能允許人們從世界上工作稀缺的一個地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移到工作更豐富的另一個地區(qū)就好了……
可惜日本太懼怕外來移民了
Immigrants are just a bandaid solution.
移民只是一個創(chuàng)可貼式的解決方案。