Germany's municipalities are getting serious and preparing for the concrete consequences of a widespread power blackout. The Hessian Rheingau-Taunus district is the first of 401 German districts and urban districts to have a specialist company in Berlin examine and simulate what threatens in the event of a blackout in order to be prepared for the increasingly likely eventuality.

德國的市政當(dāng)局正變得嚴(yán)肅起來，準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對大范圍停電的具體后果。在德國401個(gè)區(qū)和城區(qū)中，黑森萊茵加陶努斯區(qū)率先行動(dòng)，請柏林的一家專業(yè)公司負(fù)責(zé)檢查和模擬在停電情況下可能出現(xiàn)的威脅，以便為這種越來越可能發(fā)生的情況做好準(zhǔn)備。

According to this, 400 deaths could be expected within 96 hours. After 24 hours, livestock would die, substations would fail, and water tanks would run dry. Then there would be looting, fires and economic damage in the hundreds of millions. Unlike Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck, district fire inspector Christian Rossel currently considers the risk of a blackout to be much more likely than a lack of gas, which would not have such dramatic consequences, even if one were not preparing for it.

據(jù)此估計(jì)，96小時(shí)內(nèi)可能會有400人死亡。24小時(shí)后，牲畜會死亡，變電站會失靈，水箱會干涸。然后就會發(fā)生搶劫、火災(zāi)和數(shù)億的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。與聯(lián)邦經(jīng)濟(jì)部長羅伯特·哈貝克不同，地區(qū)消防督察克里斯蒂安·羅塞爾認(rèn)為，目前停電的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比天然氣短缺的可能性要大得多，即使人們沒有為后者做準(zhǔn)備，也不會造成如此嚴(yán)重的后果。

Authorities admit danger is real

當(dāng)局承認(rèn)危險(xiǎn)是真實(shí)存在的。

The blackout, a widespread power failure, is sadly no longer a horror fairy tale of sinister conspiracy theorists as authorities now consider the danger to be real (but conceal the fact that it is home-made and a consequence of their own catastrophic policies).

不幸的是，這次大范圍的停電不再是邪惡陰謀論者的恐怖童話，因?yàn)楫?dāng)局現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為危險(xiǎn)是真實(shí)存在的(但掩蓋了一個(gè)事實(shí)，這種后果是他們自己的災(zāi)難性政策造成的)。

The German Association of Towns and Municipalities (DStGB) sounded the alarm and warned of a possible overload of the German power grid. Even worse: cities and municipalities are not remotely prepared for such a scenario.

德國城鎮(zhèn)和市政協(xié)會 (DStGB) 曾拉響警報(bào)，警告德國電網(wǎng)可能過載。更糟糕的是，城市和市政當(dāng)局根本沒有為這種情況做好準(zhǔn)備。

“There is a risk of a blackout,” said DStGB chief executive Gerd Landsberg told German weekly Welt am Sonntag that realistic scenarios are both hacker attacks and “an overload of the power grid – for example, if the 650 000 fan heaters sold this year are connected to the grid if the gas supply fails”. In this case, Landsberg expressly does not want to rule out widespread power failures.

“有停電的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，”DStGB首席執(zhí)行官Gerd Landsberg告訴德國《周日世界報(bào)》，現(xiàn)實(shí)的情況是黑客攻擊和“電網(wǎng)過載——例如，如果今年銷售的65萬臺暖風(fēng)機(jī)在天然氣供應(yīng)失效時(shí)連接到電網(wǎng)”。在這種情況下，蘭德斯伯格明確表示不排除大范圍停電的可能性。

The head of the DStGB is even clearer: the federal government has recognized the situation, but is not responding as it should. Every citizen must be aware of what happens when there is no electricity: “Then there is no water, you can’t fill up, after two days you can’t charge your cell phone. We are in no way prepared for such a scenario!”.

DStGB的負(fù)責(zé)人說得更清楚：聯(lián)邦政府已經(jīng)認(rèn)識到了這一形勢，但沒有做出應(yīng)有的反應(yīng)。每個(gè)公民都必須意識到?jīng)]有電會發(fā)生什么:“然后沒有水，你不能加油，兩天后你的手機(jī)不能充電。我們對這種情況完全沒有準(zhǔn)備!”

The “blackout” would only be a particularly drastic scenario. Less drastic scenarios such as electricity or gas shortages have long been casting their shadows. An umbrella organization for independent welfare in Germany based in Berlin, the Parit?tischer Wohlfahrtsverband recently warned that, as a result of the exploding energy costs, “the livelihoods of social institutions and services are threatened to an unprecedented extent”.

“停電”只會是一個(gè)特別極端的情況。長期以來，電力或天然氣短缺等不那么嚴(yán)重的情況一直在產(chǎn)生影響?？偛课挥诎亓值牡聡?dú)立福利組織Parit?tischer Wohlfahrtsverband最近警告稱，由于能源成本的爆炸式增長，“社會機(jī)構(gòu)和服務(wù)的生計(jì)受到了前所未有的威脅”。

Retirement and nursing homes, for example, are coming under pressure due to the rapidly increasing costs. The Federal Association of Private Providers of Social Services (BPA) predicted that “this crisis will cost some providers their existence because the burdens from rising energy costs, general inflation and the omnipresent shortage of skilled workers can no longer be borne”. And all this is just the beginning, according to Bloomberg. The federal government’s €65 billion financial aid package will not be able to prevent the impending recession.

例如，由于成本迅速增加，養(yǎng)老院和療養(yǎng)院正面臨壓力。聯(lián)邦私營社會服務(wù)提供者協(xié)會(BPA)預(yù)測，“這場危機(jī)將使一些提供者難以幸存，因?yàn)槟茉闯杀旧仙?、普遍通貨膨脹和技術(shù)工人無處不在的短缺所帶來的負(fù)擔(dān)將無法再承受”。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，這一切僅僅是個(gè)開始。聯(lián)邦政府650億歐元的財(cái)政援助計(jì)劃將無法阻止即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

Commerzbank economist J?rg Kr?mer meanwhile warned that the announced steps only “create the illusion that large parts of the population can be protected from the consequences of rising energy prices”.

與此同時(shí)，德國商業(yè)銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家J?rg Kr?mer警告稱，已宣布的措施只“制造了一種錯(cuò)覺，即大部分人可以免受能源價(jià)格上漲的影響”。

What happens if the lights go out?

如果燈滅了會發(fā)生什么?

In the event of a widespread power failure, nothing works anymore. Internet, landline telephony and heating systems would fail first, followed closely by mobile communications and digital radio. Gas stations would run out of petrol, electronic money and payment systems would fail, food could no longer be cooled. Clinics, care facilities and water suppliers and disposal companies depend on their respective equipment to outlast the blackout. Rossel made it clear that the district could not ensure the power supply. Like Landsberg, he advised citizens to stock up on food and drinking water for 14 days.

在大范圍停電的情況下，一切都無法運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)、座機(jī)電話和供暖系統(tǒng)將首先失效，緊隨其后的是移動(dòng)通信和數(shù)字無線電。加油站將耗盡汽油，電子貨幣和支付系統(tǒng)將失靈，食物將無法再冷藏。診所、護(hù)理設(shè)施、水供應(yīng)商和污水處理公司依靠各自的設(shè)備度過停電。羅塞爾明確表示，該地區(qū)無法保證電力供應(yīng)。和蘭茨伯格一樣，他建議市民儲備14天的食物和飲用水。

The district will ensure that administration and civil protection work so that emergency aid can be coordinated. For this, the “equipment security” has to ensure electricity for servers and satellite-supported communication systems for the crisis management teams. The current emergency generator can run continuously for 16 hours. However, since the police, fire brigades and rescue workers would also need several 10 000 liters per day, negotiations are being held with heating oil suppliers.

該地區(qū)將確保行政和民防工作，以便協(xié)調(diào)緊急援助。為此，必須確?！霸O(shè)備安全”，為危機(jī)管理團(tuán)隊(duì)的服務(wù)器和衛(wèi)星支持的通信系統(tǒng)供電。目前的應(yīng)急發(fā)電機(jī)可連續(xù)運(yùn)行16小時(shí)。但是，由于警察、消防隊(duì)和救援人員每天也需要1萬升的燃料油，因此正在與燃料油供應(yīng)商進(jìn)行協(xié)商。

All of these scenarios show a country that is on the brink of complete collapse in an emergency due to ideology-driven politics and decades of neglect of important infrastructure.

所有這些情景都表明，由于意識形態(tài)驅(qū)動(dòng)的政治和幾十年來對重要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的忽視，一個(gè)國家正處于緊急情況下完全崩潰的邊緣。

In addition, there is a risk of “l(fā)oad undersupply” due to the planned shutdown of the last three nuclear power plants, so that in certain areas the entire electricity demand of Germany can no longer be covered. Then large electricity consumers such as industrial companies would have to be switched off voluntarily or by force.

此外，由于計(jì)劃關(guān)閉最后三座核電站，存在“負(fù)荷不足”的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因此在某些地區(qū)，德國的整個(gè)電力需求無法再得到滿足。那么，工業(yè)企業(yè)等大型用電企業(yè)將不得不自愿或強(qiáng)行切斷電源。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


Moreover, the population hardly follows the recommendations of the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK). As recently as July, the ill-informed German Minister of Economics Robert Habeck declared: “The fact is: we currently have a gas problem, not an electricity problem.” At the time, the statement was part of his propaganda strategy to prevent the continued operation of the three remaining German nuclear power plants.

此外，人們幾乎不會遵守聯(lián)邦民防和災(zāi)害援助辦公室(BBK)的建議。就在今年7月，消息不靈通的德國經(jīng)濟(jì)部長羅伯特·哈貝克宣稱:“事實(shí)是：我們目前面臨的是天然氣問題，而不是電力問題?！碑?dāng)時(shí)，這一聲明是他阻止德國其余三座核電站繼續(xù)運(yùn)行的宣傳策略的一部分。

Thus, Habeck pushed hundreds of thousands of citizens to buy fan heaters, which DStGB boss Landsberg now fears will finish off the German power grid. The nationwide “Warning Day”, on which the functioning of the civil protection measures is to be tested by means of a test alarm, will take place this year on December 8 – although it is actually scheduled for the second Thursday in September every year.

因此，哈貝克推動(dòng)數(shù)十萬市民購買暖風(fēng)機(jī)，DStGB老板蘭德斯伯格現(xiàn)在擔(dān)心這將終結(jié)德國電網(wǎng)。今年的全國“預(yù)警日”將在12月8日舉行，以測試警報(bào)的方式測試民防措施的功能，但實(shí)際上定于每年9月的第二個(gè)星期四。

Civil protection failing

民防失敗

The last attempt two years ago, on September 10, 2020, failed miserably because not even the warning apps worked. In the event of an actual catastrophe, many citizens were not warned at all (similar to what happened three quarters of a year later in the Ahr Valley and in southern North Rhine-Westphalia during the flood of the century).

上一次嘗試是在兩年前的2020年9月10日，失敗得一塌糊涂，因?yàn)檫B預(yù)警APP都不管用。在真正發(fā)生災(zāi)難的情況下，許多市民根本沒有得到警告(類似于四分之三年后發(fā)生在阿爾河谷，以及世紀(jì)大洪水期間發(fā)生在北萊茵-威斯特法倫州南部的情況)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


The Ministry of the Interior had described the test alarm as “failed”. A spokesman for the Munich fire department said at the time that there had been no sirens in the city for years because they had been removed after the end of the Cold War. The same applies to large parts of Berlin.

內(nèi)政部稱這個(gè)測試警報(bào)“失敗了”。慕尼黑消防部門的一名發(fā)言人當(dāng)時(shí)表示，這座城市已經(jīng)多年沒有警報(bào)器了，因?yàn)樗鼈冊诶鋺?zhàn)結(jié)束后被拆除了。柏林的大部分地區(qū)也是如此。

In 2021, the warning day was completely dispensed with because the BBK was supposed to set up a “comprehensive test landscape” beforehand . This year’s warning day has been moved to December to accommodate Cell Broadcast testing. This is a system in which all mobile phone users who are in the area of ??a radio cell at a certain time receive a message that looks like an SMS. Unlike the warning apps “Nina” and “Katwarn”, which failed in 2020, people without smartphones are also reached.

2021年，因?yàn)槿藗円詾锽BK提前設(shè)置了“綜合測試形勢”，因此該警告日完全取消了。今年的警告日已移至12月，以適應(yīng)手機(jī)廣播測試。在這個(gè)系統(tǒng)中，所有在特定時(shí)間處于無線蜂窩區(qū)域內(nèi)的手機(jī)用戶都會收到一條類似短信的信息。與2020年失敗的預(yù)警應(yīng)用“Nina”和“Katwarn”不同，沒有智能手機(jī)的人也能收到警告。

Given the current situation in Germany, one can only hope that at least this system will work.

考慮到德國目前的情況，我們只能希望至少這個(gè)體系能發(fā)揮作用。