中國(guó)在電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位對(duì)美國(guó)汽車制造商的未來意味著什么？

--------------
Joseph Boyle, lives in California (1988-present)
As with ICE cars, it means Chinese auto makers have the huge China market and are successfully competitive in developing countries’ markets, while developed countries make their own and import from other developed countries. Most existing auto makers have plans for electric although I think Tesla will continue to lead them.

和燃油車一樣，這意味著中國(guó)汽車制造商擁有巨大的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，在發(fā)展中國(guó)家的市場(chǎng)上具有較強(qiáng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，而發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家則自己生產(chǎn)汽車并從其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家進(jìn)口。大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有的汽車制造商都有電動(dòng)汽車的計(jì)劃，盡管我認(rèn)為特斯拉將繼續(xù)領(lǐng)先他們。

China trade is politically sensitive enough that a push into developed markets would be expensive and resisted. The fact that Chinese autos haven’t already penetrated developed markets says something, besides Japanese and Korean brands already doing it very well.
How about looking at just battery supply? Tesla started with technology from Panasonic. European and Detroit makes will probably have some combination of local production and Asian partnerships.

中國(guó)的貿(mào)易在政治上非常敏感，因此進(jìn)入發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的代價(jià)高昂，而且會(huì)受到抵制。除了日本和韓國(guó)品牌已經(jīng)做得很好之外，中國(guó)汽車尚未打入發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)這一事實(shí)說明了一點(diǎn)。
看看電池的供應(yīng)情況怎么樣？特斯拉從松下的技術(shù)起步，而歐洲和底特律的汽車制造業(yè)很可能會(huì)把本地生產(chǎn)和亞洲的合作伙伴結(jié)合起來。

----------
Bruce A McIntyre, I grew up as a motorhead in Detroit, built hotrods all through my teen years，Lives in Bucks County, PA
First of all, it hasn’t happened yet. There is a lot of change going on, and there is no reason to assume that they will dominate the EV market. Sure, it’s quite possible that they will have a very significant impact on both batteries as well as EVs. Even when China becomes a major world player, and even if they come close to dominating the battery for cars market, they will not dominate the global market for EVs because there are a lot of very smart people working to make that not happen.

首先，這還沒有發(fā)生，雖然有很多變化正在進(jìn)行中，但沒有理由認(rèn)為他們將主導(dǎo)電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)。無(wú)疑，它們很有可能會(huì)對(duì)電池和電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)生非常重大的影響。但即使中國(guó)成為一個(gè)主要的參與者，即使他們接近主導(dǎo)汽車電池市場(chǎng)，他們也不會(huì)主導(dǎo)全球電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)橛泻芏喾浅Ｂ斆鞯娜苏谂κ惯@一點(diǎn)不成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。

Now it’s true that US automakers have virtually abandoned the “sedan” portion of the car maket, and have lost global dominance of the car market altogether, there are a number of players in Europe and Asia who are working very hard to not have done to them, what they did to the US market.
China will still have to compete on the world stage, and not just in China.

事實(shí)上，美國(guó)汽車制造商實(shí)際上已經(jīng)放棄了汽車市場(chǎng)中的“轎車”部分，它們完全失去了汽車市場(chǎng)的全球主導(dǎo)地位，歐洲和亞洲的一些汽車制造商正在非常努力地工作以避免美國(guó)的覆轍。
中國(guó)仍將不得不在世界舞臺(tái)（而不僅僅是在中國(guó)）上與其他廠商競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

Quora User
I still cannot understand the push for electric cars, they use energy from polluting generating plants, the users are going to be low miles commuters and the CO2 lifecycle emissions are only slightly better than hybrids.

我仍然無(wú)法理解電動(dòng)汽車的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，它們使用的能源來自排放污染的發(fā)電廠，使用者將是近距離的通勤者，二氧化碳的排放量也只比混合動(dòng)力汽車略好。

-------------
Yan Zhu, knows Mandarin Chinese
China is the world’s largest auto market and also a leader in the electric vehicle (EV) business. There are about 3 million electric vehicles in the world, and two-thirds of them are produced and sold in China. The development of electric vehicle sales in China is even more remarkable. In 2011, China sold only 8,159 electric vehicles, but in 2015 this figure soared to 331,092. The production of electric vehicles and other non-petrol vehicles in the Chinese market increased to 500,000 in the first half of this year. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2040, China will account for more than 40% of global electric vehicle sales. But as of now, this is only a small part of the global market for the automotive and light truck.
Also Read: Ford CEO: China Will Take the Lead in Electric Vehicle Area

中國(guó)是世界上最大的汽車市場(chǎng)，也是電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。全球約有300萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車，其中三分之二在中國(guó)生產(chǎn)和銷售。中國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車銷售的發(fā)展更是令人矚目，2011年，中國(guó)僅售出了8159輛電動(dòng)汽車，但2015年這一數(shù)字飆升至331092輛。今年上半年，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)電動(dòng)車等非汽油車的產(chǎn)量增加到50萬(wàn)輛。國(guó)際能源署預(yù)測(cè)，到2040年，中國(guó)將占全球電動(dòng)車銷量的40%以上。但截至目前，電動(dòng)汽車只占全球汽車和輕型卡車市場(chǎng)的一小部分。
另請(qǐng)閱讀：福特首席執(zhí)行官：中國(guó)將在電動(dòng)汽車領(lǐng)域處于領(lǐng)先地位（鏈接）

With the continuous development, the car purchases in China is rising sharply. The number of new licenses issued per month is also over 1.5 million. This has exacerbated environmental pollution and increased the growing volumes of oil imports, and daily imports have grown to almost 9 million barrels.
Electric vehicles are a practical option. Although 80% of China’s electricity still comes from coal, electric vehicles are relatively clean, while reducing the demand for oil. More importantly, electric vehicles also have the potential to become a new source of employment and export earnings.

隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展，中國(guó)的汽車購(gòu)買量正在急劇上升，每月發(fā)放的新牌照數(shù)量也超過150萬(wàn)張。這加劇了環(huán)境污染，增加了日益增長(zhǎng)的石油進(jìn)口量，中國(guó)的日石油進(jìn)口量已增長(zhǎng)到近900萬(wàn)桶。
電動(dòng)汽車是一種實(shí)用的選擇。盡管中國(guó)80%的電力仍然來自煤炭，但電動(dòng)汽車相對(duì)清潔，同時(shí)減少了對(duì)石油的需求。更重要的是，電動(dòng)汽車還有潛力成為新的就業(yè)和出口收入來源。

Some large cities in China are implementing subsidies and restrictions to promote the development of electric vehicles. EVs were exempted from purchase tax from 2014 to 2017, and the government has extended the tax exemption to 2020. In addition, the central government has launched a consumer subsidy program.
The limited battery capacity and corresponding range of travel remain an obstacle to electric vehicles, requiring additional charging stations and support infrastructure. China plans to build 12,000 charging stations by 2020 to accommodate 5 million electric vehicles.

中國(guó)的一些大城市正在實(shí)施補(bǔ)貼和限制措施，以促進(jìn)電動(dòng)汽車的發(fā)展。2014年至2017年，電動(dòng)汽車免征購(gòu)置稅，政府已將免稅期延長(zhǎng)至2020年。此外，中央政府還啟動(dòng)了消費(fèi)者補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃。
有限的電池容量和相應(yīng)的行駛范圍仍然是電動(dòng)汽車發(fā)展的障礙，這意味著它需要額外的充電站和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。中國(guó)計(jì)劃到2020年建設(shè)1.2萬(wàn)個(gè)充電站，服務(wù)500萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)汽車。

Meanwhile, the strength of China’s battery sector will further consolidate this industry. In fact, the country is already the world’s largest producer of electric vehicle batteries. It also controls a significant portion of the supply chain, such as raw materials, chemical processing and other parts. Caspar Rawles, an analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said, “The largest risk/concern to the supply chain is the control of the raw materials, particularly cobalt, lithium and graphite. China controls vast sections of much of the battery supply chain, from mining the raw materials through to processing and finally to cathode/cell production.”
There is no doubt that the energy transformation with Chinese characteristics is already underway.

同時(shí)，中國(guó)電池行業(yè)將進(jìn)一步鞏固這一產(chǎn)業(yè)。事實(shí)上，中國(guó)已經(jīng)是世界上最大的電動(dòng)車電池生產(chǎn)國(guó)。它還控制著供應(yīng)鏈的很大一部分，如原材料、化學(xué)加工和其他部分?；鶞?zhǔn)礦產(chǎn)情報(bào)公司分析師卡斯帕·羅爾斯表示：“供應(yīng)鏈面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/擔(dān)憂是對(duì)原材料的控制，尤其是鈷、鋰和石墨。中國(guó)控制著電池供應(yīng)鏈的大部分環(huán)節(jié)，從原材料開采到加工，最后到陰極/電池生產(chǎn)?！?br /> 毫無(wú)疑問，中國(guó)特色的能源轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)在進(jìn)行中。

--------
Daniel Crain, obsessed car guy, R8, Cayman, Aston Martin Vantage (traded), and many others，Lives in New Jersey1974–present
I think the answer is unknown at this point.
China doesn’t necessarily dominate electric vehicles at the moment, but they have at the federal level devoted significant national resources to electric transportation for sure. And while there are more pure electrics sold in China, they also have around 1.4 billion citizens, so the market is 4 times the size of the US and the EU as well. At the moment, it has little impact on the US industry for a variety of reasons.

我認(rèn)為目前的答案是未知的。
目前，中國(guó)未必主導(dǎo)了電動(dòng)汽車的發(fā)展，但他們?cè)趪?guó)家層面上確實(shí)為電動(dòng)交通投入了大量的國(guó)家資源。盡管在中國(guó)銷售的純電動(dòng)產(chǎn)品更多，但他們有大約14億公民，因此他們的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模是美國(guó)和歐盟的4倍。目前，由于多種原因，中國(guó)汽車對(duì)美國(guó)工業(yè)幾乎沒有影響。

China is not an exporter of cars to the US for now at least. While it doesn’t export its indigenous brands to much of the west, it does do manufacturing for tons of western brands, but not in the car business. So it would take a number of years for any Chinese manufacturer to set up a complete operation, including distribution, parts, service, etc, in the US or EU, if the political environment would even allow it in the near future. Many others have tried, and most have failed.

至少在目前，對(duì)于美國(guó)而言，中國(guó)還不是汽車出口國(guó)。雖然它沒有向西方大部分地區(qū)出口本土品牌的汽車，但它確實(shí)為大量的西方品牌制造了產(chǎn)品。因此，即便在不久的將來政治環(huán)境允許，任何一家中國(guó)制造商要在美國(guó)或歐盟建立起一個(gè)完整的業(yè)務(wù)（包括分銷、零部件、服務(wù)等）也需要數(shù)年的時(shí)間。許多其他人都嘗試過，但他們大多數(shù)都失敗了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

Also, China has a long way to go to even satisfy its internal potential from a market size standpoint. They behave differently than Japan did in the post WW2 era, where the Japanese Ministry of Industry and Technology made growing their market share in the US a national initiative between government and industry, as it brought much needed capital into Japan. Internal consumption is now a priority, and if you’ve ever been in any Chinese major city (I’ve been to many), industrial pollution is astonishing. So electric transportation will provide a much needed respite from the incredible air pollution there.

此外，從市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的角度來看，中國(guó)要滿足其內(nèi)部潛力還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走，他們的行為與二戰(zhàn)后的日本不同。二戰(zhàn)后，日本的工業(yè)和技術(shù)部將擴(kuò)大其在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額作為政府和工業(yè)界之間的一項(xiàng)全國(guó)性舉措，因?yàn)檫@為日本帶來了急需的資金。而在中國(guó)，國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)現(xiàn)在是重中之重，如果你去過中國(guó)的任何一個(gè)大城市（我去過很多），你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)工業(yè)污染是驚人的。因此，電動(dòng)交通工具將為那里難以置信的空氣污染提供急需的緩解措施。

Another aspect that’s observed and written about but not really focused on, is that China has made a number of moves that signal that it doesn’t want to become a slave to the oil industry like much of the developed world is at this point. So it all fits that electric vehicles are a good fit for what it appears at least the people in China who think about energy dependency, pollution, and congestion are concerned about.

另一個(gè)被觀察和報(bào)道但并未真正受到關(guān)注的方面是，中國(guó)已經(jīng)采取了一些舉措，表明它不想像許多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家那樣成為石油工業(yè)的奴隸。因此，至少在中國(guó)，電動(dòng)汽車對(duì)那些考慮到能源依賴、污染和交通擁堵的人是一個(gè)非常好的選擇。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

I suspect that over time, some Chinese auto company will try to sell cars in the US or possibly the EU. The American car industry is not unique. It has the same vulnerabilities and strengths that the European and Japanese industries have, from a technology, labor cost, and national pride standpoint.
Oddly enough, not everyone realizes that Volvo Cars is in fact majority owned by Geely, which is a large Chinese car company. They also bought a large stake in Daimler (Mercedes parent) and own a majority of Lotus (yes, that Lotus).

我懷疑，隨著時(shí)間的推移，一些中國(guó)汽車公司會(huì)試圖在美國(guó)或歐盟銷售汽車。美國(guó)汽車工業(yè)并非獨(dú)一無(wú)二，從技術(shù)、勞動(dòng)力成本和民族自豪感的角度來看，它具有歐洲和日本汽車工業(yè)所具有的同樣的弱點(diǎn)和優(yōu)勢(shì)。
奇怪的是，并不是每個(gè)人都意識(shí)到沃爾沃汽車實(shí)際上是中國(guó)大型汽車公司吉利的控股公司，它們還購(gòu)買了戴姆勒的大量股份，并擁有蓮花（LOTUS）的大部分股份。

Erica Wong
Supposedly GAC (Guangzhou Automobile Company) will be the first to sell a Chinese branded vehicle in the USA starting next year. With looming tariffs though, this may not happen.
Where Geely And Chery Failed, China's GAC Could Finally Crack The U.S. Auto Market

據(jù)推測(cè)，廣州汽車公司將從明年開始率先在美國(guó)銷售中國(guó)品牌的汽車。不過由于迫在眉睫的關(guān)稅，這種情況可能不會(huì)發(fā)生。
在吉利和奇瑞失敗的地方，中國(guó)廣汽將打入美國(guó)汽車市場(chǎng)（鏈接）

Daniel Crain
Yeah, I saw that earlier this year. Interestingly, Geely may be the first to actually succeed in many ways, as they have distribution, parts, support, and logistics in place with Volvo already in place. Its not that dissimilar to the strategy that Fiat used with Chrysler to some extent, leveraging their existing dealer network to build up volume for Fiat and Alfa.

是的，我今年早些時(shí)候看到了這條消息。有趣的是，吉利可能是第一個(gè)在許多方面真正取得成功的公司，因?yàn)樗麄兊姆咒N、零部件、技術(shù)支持和物流都已經(jīng)就位，而沃爾沃也準(zhǔn)備好了。這與菲亞特與克萊斯勒在某種程度上采用的策略沒有什么不同，后者正利用現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)為菲亞特和阿爾法·羅密歐擴(kuò)大銷量。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

Much like Hyundai did when they entered the market years ago (it was very bumpy), companies like GAC would have to have a seriously credible product with a killer price to get people to actually notice. Hyundai almost died here because even though their product was super cheap, it was unreliable and junky in the beginning.

就像現(xiàn)代汽車幾年前進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)時(shí)所做的那樣，像廣汽這樣的公司必須有一款非?？煽?，價(jià)格有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的產(chǎn)品，才能讓人們真正注意到?，F(xiàn)代汽車差點(diǎn)在這里死掉，因?yàn)楸M管他們的產(chǎn)品非常便宜，但一開始非常不可靠，被認(rèn)為質(zhì)量很差。

Robert Stodieck
Subject to rapid change, but the Tesla-Panasonic “gigafactory” is the only major automobile li-ion battery factory outside of China at the moment.

受制于日新月異的變化，特斯拉-松下的“超級(jí)工廠”是目前中國(guó)以外唯一一家大型汽車鋰離子電池工廠。