In March 2003, then President George W Bush approved the military attack, with major repercussions for US politics, and global perceptions of the country

2003年3月，時(shí)任總統(tǒng)喬治·W·布什批準(zhǔn)了這次軍事進(jìn)攻，這對(duì)美國(guó)政治和全球?qū)γ绹?guó)的看法產(chǎn)生了重大影響。

Twenty years ago, the world was shaken by one of the major geopolitical events of this century. On the morning of March 20, 2003, the US officially launched its illegal invasion of Iraq. The rationale was based on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s alleged ties with terrorists, and intelligence regarding the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. However, both claims turned out to be false and were later refuted.
Russian political analysts believe that the real reasons behind the invasion of Iraq included a desire for control over oil fields, the naive hope of creating a ‘showcase of democracy’ in the Middle East, and a demonstration of the ‘fight against terrorism’ to US voters. None of these goals were achieved, but the grievous consequences of the endeavor are evident.

20年前，本世紀(jì)的一次重大地緣政治事件震動(dòng)了世界。2003年3月20日上午，美國(guó)正式對(duì)伊拉克發(fā)動(dòng)非法入侵。理由是伊拉克總統(tǒng)薩達(dá)姆·侯賽因據(jù)稱與恐怖分子有聯(lián)系，以及有關(guān)伊拉克存在大規(guī)模殺傷性武器的情報(bào)。然而，這兩種說(shuō)法都被證明是錯(cuò)誤的，后來(lái)都被駁斥了。
俄羅斯政治分析人士認(rèn)為，入侵伊拉克的真正原因包括渴望控制油田，天真地希望在中東創(chuàng)造一個(gè)“民主的櫥窗”，并向美國(guó)選民展示“打擊恐怖主義”。這些目標(biāo)都沒(méi)有實(shí)現(xiàn)，但這種努力的嚴(yán)重后果是顯而易見(jiàn)的。
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The reasons behind the invasion
Washington initially called its operation ‘Shock and Awe’, but later renamed it ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’. Official Baghdad called it ‘Harb al?Hawasim’ (the Final War).
American society had been carefully prepared for the war over the course of several years. On January 30, 2002, then-President George W. Bush first used the expression ‘a(chǎn)xis of evil’ in his State of the unx address when referring to North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. In February of that year, US Secretary of State Colin Powell publicly discussed a potential change of regime in Baghdad.

入侵背后的原因
華盛頓最初稱其為“震懾”行動(dòng)，但后來(lái)更名為“伊拉克自由行動(dòng)”。巴格達(dá)官方稱之為“決定性戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”。
美國(guó)社會(huì)已經(jīng)為這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)做了幾年的精心準(zhǔn)備。2002年1月30日，時(shí)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬治·W·布什在國(guó)情咨文中首次使用了“邪惡軸心”一詞，指的是朝鮮、伊朗和伊拉克。同年2月，美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿科林·鮑威爾公開(kāi)討論了巴格達(dá)政權(quán)更迭的可能性。
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Bush's team stated that one of their main goals in Iraq was the fight against terrorism, which was launched after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The US government claimed that Osama Bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda terrorist organization was responsible and was also being supported by then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. However, on September 9, 2006, the US Senate released a report which proved that Hussein had no lixs with Al-Qaeda. Moreover, as the report showed, he had “tried, though unsuccessfully,” to find and capture Iraqi terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

布什的班子說(shuō)，他們?cè)谝晾说闹饕繕?biāo)之一是打擊2001年9月11日恐怖襲擊后發(fā)動(dòng)的恐怖主義。美國(guó)政府聲稱，奧薩馬·本·拉登的基地恐怖組織對(duì)此事件負(fù)責(zé)，該組織還得到了時(shí)任伊拉克總統(tǒng)薩達(dá)姆·侯賽因的支持。然而，2006年9月9日，美國(guó)參議院公布了一份報(bào)告，證明侯賽因與基地組織沒(méi)有聯(lián)系。此外，正如報(bào)告所顯示的那樣，他曾“試圖(盡管沒(méi)有成功)”找到并抓獲伊拉克恐怖分子頭目阿布·穆薩布·扎卡維。
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Another reason for the invasion was Iraq’s supposed development of weapons of mass destruction. At a meeting of the UN Security Council on February 5, 2003, Colin Powell showed a test tube with white powder that he claimed contained samples of chemical weapons found in the country. But this ‘proof’ also turned out to be fake. On October 6, 2004, the Iraq Survey Group, comprised of 1,400 US, British, and Australian weapons experts, established that by 2003, the country “had no nuclear, chemical, or bacteriological weapons programs, or WMD arsenals.”

入侵伊拉克的另一個(gè)原因是伊拉克據(jù)稱正在發(fā)展大規(guī)模殺傷性武器。2003年2月5日，在聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)的一次會(huì)議上，科林·鮑威爾展示了一個(gè)裝有白色粉末的試管，他聲稱這是在伊拉克發(fā)現(xiàn)的化學(xué)武器的樣本。但這個(gè)“證據(jù)”也被證明是假的。2004年10月6日，由1400名美國(guó)、英國(guó)和澳大利亞武器專家組成的伊拉克調(diào)查小組確定，到2003年，伊拉克“沒(méi)有核武器、化學(xué)武器或細(xì)菌武器計(jì)劃，也沒(méi)有大規(guī)模殺傷性武器庫(kù)”。

In other words, both accusations which were supposed to justify the US military intervention turned out to be false. As Andrey Chuprygin, a senior lecturer at the HSE School of Asian Studies, explains, the real reason behind the illegal invasion was that the ‘war on terror’ declared by Bush in 2001 yielded no visible results by 2003.
“By 2003, the US spent a huge amount of money and lost military personnel, but there was still nothing tangible to show voters – there was no victory over terror. It seems that Iraq and Saddam Hussein were chosen as scapegoats in order to gain an illustrious victory and present it to voters. And that was exactly what happened,” Chuprygin told RT.

換句話說(shuō)，這兩項(xiàng)旨在為美國(guó)軍事干預(yù)辯護(hù)的指控都是錯(cuò)誤的。正如HSE亞洲研究學(xué)院高級(jí)講師安德烈·楚普里金所解釋的那樣，非法入侵背后的真正原因是布什在2001年宣布的“反恐戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”到2003年沒(méi)有取得明顯的成果。
“到2003年，美國(guó)花費(fèi)了巨額資金并損失了軍事人員，但是，仍然沒(méi)有什么實(shí)質(zhì)的東西可以向選民展示——沒(méi)有戰(zhàn)勝恐怖主義。伊拉克和薩達(dá)姆·侯賽因被選為替罪羊，似乎是為了獲得輝煌的勝利，并將其呈現(xiàn)給選民。事實(shí)就是這樣，”丘普里金告訴《今日俄羅斯》。

He believes that Hussein’s main political mistake – the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 – made him a target for the US. “He set himself up and became a convenient target for the Americans, who wanted to kill two birds with one stone: Demonstrate victory in the war on terror by labeling Hussein a terrorist accomplice, and also help their ally, Saudi Arabia.”
The invasion of Iraq revealed the true goals of the war against terrorism, Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes. In his opinion, the US was chiefly concerned about establishing control over the oil fields in the Near and Middle East.

他認(rèn)為侯賽因的主要政治錯(cuò)誤——1990年入侵科威特——使他成為美國(guó)的攻擊目標(biāo)。“他自取其禍，成為美國(guó)人的靶子。美國(guó)人想一箭雙雕：給侯賽因貼上恐怖分子幫兇的標(biāo)簽，展示反恐戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的勝利，同時(shí)幫助他們的盟友沙特阿拉伯?！?br /> 俄羅斯科學(xué)院美加研究所首席研究員弗拉基米爾·瓦西里耶夫認(rèn)為，入侵伊拉克揭示了反恐戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的真正目標(biāo)。在他看來(lái)，美國(guó)主要關(guān)心的是建立對(duì)近東和中東油田的控制。

“They wanted to have control over the global market, over the energy and oil prices. They wanted to make a big profit and directly influence the global energy market. American energy monopolies were the main sponsors of the Republican Party at the time,” he told RT.
Vasiliev also said the US wanted Iraq to become a kind of ‘showcase of democracy’, a Western-type country in the Middle East. Washington hoped that these ideas would later spread west and east of Iraq, and come to influence Syria and other countries.
Close relations between the US and Israel may have also played an important role in the Iraqi operation, Vasiliev noted. Under the leadership of Hussein, Iraq was then seen as one of the main threats to Israel’s national security.

他告訴RT，“他們想控制全球市場(chǎng)，控制能源和石油價(jià)格。他們想大賺一筆，并直接影響全球能源市場(chǎng)。當(dāng)時(shí)，美國(guó)的能源壟斷企業(yè)是共和黨的主要支持者。”
瓦西里耶夫還表示，美國(guó)希望伊拉克成為一種“民主的櫥窗”，成為中東地區(qū)的一個(gè)西方式國(guó)家。華盛頓希望這些想法后來(lái)能傳播到伊拉克的西部和東部，進(jìn)而影響敘利亞和其他國(guó)家。
瓦西里耶夫指出，美國(guó)和以色列之間的密切關(guān)系可能也在伊拉克行動(dòng)中發(fā)揮了重要作用。在侯賽因的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，伊拉克被視為以色列國(guó)家安全的主要威脅之一。

The military campaign
The joint operation of US and British troops against Iraq was not sanctioned by the UN Security Council. Powell stated that the governments of 45 states either directly or indirectly supported the US, and 30 states unconditionally supported America’s goal of overthrowing Hussein.
The operation was led by the Joint Central Command (JCC) of the US Armed Forces. A 280,000-strong grouping of US and British troops took part in combat in the Persian Gulf zone. The Air Force was equipped with over 700 combat aircraft. The coalition had over 800 American M?1 Abrams tanks, around 120 British Challenger tanks, over 600 American M?2/M?3 Bradley armored vehicles, and around 150 British Warrior armored vehicles.
The Iraqi Army numbered 389,000 soldiers, 40-60,000 p aramilitary and police formations, and 650,000 reservists. It was armed with around 2,500 tanks, 1,500 BMP?1 and BMP?2 infantry fighting vehicles, and around 2,000 artillery pieces over 100mm in caliber. Iraq had around 300 combat aircraft (mainly Mirage F?1EQ, MiG?29, MiG?25, MiG?23, and MiG?21), 100 combat helicopters, and 300 transport helicopters.

軍事行動(dòng)
美國(guó)和英國(guó)軍隊(duì)對(duì)伊拉克的聯(lián)合行動(dòng)沒(méi)有得到聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)的批準(zhǔn)。鮑威爾說(shuō)，45個(gè)州的政府直接或間接地支持美國(guó)，30個(gè)州無(wú)條件地支持美國(guó)推翻侯賽因的目標(biāo)。
這次行動(dòng)由美國(guó)武裝部隊(duì)聯(lián)合中央司令部領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。一支28萬(wàn)多名美國(guó)和英國(guó)士兵組成軍隊(duì)參加了波斯灣地區(qū)的戰(zhàn)斗?？哲娧b備了700多架戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)。聯(lián)軍擁有800多輛美國(guó)M-1艾布拉姆斯坦克，大約120輛英國(guó)“挑戰(zhàn)者”坦克，600多輛美國(guó)M-2/M-3布雷德利裝甲車和大約150輛英國(guó)“勇士”裝甲車。
伊拉克陸軍有38萬(wàn)9千名士兵，40-60萬(wàn)名憲兵和警察，65萬(wàn)名預(yù)備役軍人。它裝備有大約2500輛坦克，1500輛BMP -1和BMP-2步兵戰(zhàn)車，大約2000門口徑超過(guò)100毫米的火炮。伊拉克擁有大約300架作戰(zhàn)飛機(jī)(主要是幻影F-1EQ、米格-29、米格-25、米格-23和米格-21)、100架戰(zhàn)斗直升機(jī)和300架運(yùn)輸直升機(jī)。

The US began its operation with isolated strikes on strategically important military targets and government facilities in Baghdad, using sea-based cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions. It took the Americans 20 days to capture the capital. Baghdad was occupied on April 9, followed by two of Iraq’s largest cities, Kirkuk and Mosul, on April 10 and 11.
On May 1, 2003, the US president announced the end of hostilities and the beginning of the military occupation of Iraq. Not until November 2008 did the Iraqi government and parliament, which had effectively been installed by Washington, approve an agreement on the withdrawal of US troops and the regulation of their temporary stay on Iraqi territory. In the winter of 2009, when Barack Obama was elected US president, 90,000 troops were withdrawn from Iraq. On August 31, 2010, Obama announced the end of the active stage of the military operation. The last column of American troops left Iraq on December 18, 2011.

美國(guó)在行動(dòng)開(kāi)始時(shí)，使用?；埠綄?dǎo)彈和精確制導(dǎo)彈藥，對(duì)巴格達(dá)具有重要戰(zhàn)略意義的軍事目標(biāo)和政府設(shè)施進(jìn)行了孤立的打擊。美軍花了20天占領(lǐng)了首都。巴格達(dá)4月9日被占領(lǐng)，伊拉克兩個(gè)最大的城市基爾庫(kù)克和摩蘇爾4月10日和11日被占領(lǐng)。
2003年5月1日，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)宣布結(jié)束敵對(duì)行動(dòng)，開(kāi)始對(duì)伊拉克的軍事占領(lǐng)。直到2008年11月，伊拉克政府和議會(huì)(實(shí)際上是由華盛頓設(shè)立的)才批準(zhǔn)了一項(xiàng)關(guān)于美軍撤離和美軍在伊拉克領(lǐng)土上臨時(shí)停留的協(xié)議。2009年冬天，當(dāng)巴拉克·奧巴馬當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)時(shí)，美國(guó)從伊拉克撤出了9萬(wàn)名士兵。2010年8月31日，奧巴馬宣布軍事行動(dòng)的活躍階段結(jié)束。2011年12月18日，美軍最后一支縱隊(duì)離開(kāi)伊拉克。

Iraq no longer exists
The US invasion resulted in the overthrow of Hussein’s government. In 2006, he was found guilty of murdering 148 Shiites and was sentenced to death by hanging.
Chuprygin believes that Iraq ceased to exist as a unified state after the US invasion. The country broke apart into different regions controlled by hostile political forces. To this day, there has been no end to the confrontation.
The new Iraqi Constitution was adopted in 2005. It proclaimed Iraq a democratic federal parliamentary republic, approved autonomous governance in the country’s north and south regions, and redistributed power in favor of the Shiites and Kurds.
“Iraq seems to be a single state (at least to the outside observer), but this is really not the case. Opinions differ whether it will remain unified or, as many experts said a few years ago, would break up into two or even three territories – Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish,” Chuprygin said.

伊拉克已不復(fù)存在
美國(guó)的入侵導(dǎo)致侯賽因政府被推翻。2006年，他被判謀殺148名什葉派教徒，并被處以絞刑。
丘普里金認(rèn)為，在美國(guó)入侵后，伊拉克就不再是一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的國(guó)家了。這個(gè)國(guó)家分裂成由敵對(duì)政治勢(shì)力控制的不同地區(qū)。直到今天，雙方的對(duì)抗還沒(méi)有結(jié)束。
伊拉克新憲法于2005年通過(guò)。它宣布伊拉克為民主聯(lián)邦議會(huì)制共和國(guó)，批準(zhǔn)伊拉克北部和南部地區(qū)實(shí)行自治，并重新分配了有利于什葉派和庫(kù)爾德人的權(quán)力。
丘普里金說(shuō):“伊拉克似乎是一個(gè)單一的國(guó)家(至少在外部觀察員看來(lái)是這樣)，但事實(shí)并非如此。它是會(huì)保持統(tǒng)一，還是像許多專家?guī)啄昵罢f(shuō)的那樣，會(huì)分裂成兩個(gè)甚至三個(gè)地區(qū)——什葉派、遜尼派和庫(kù)爾德人?！?/b>

Terrorism and countless victims
The biggest global consequences of the US intervention include the formation of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) in Syria and Iraq – which in military and economic terms, became the world’s most powerful terrorist organization. As Vasiliev notes, IS was originally made up of former officers of Hussein’s army who remained loyal to him. The Islamists viewed the US as occupiers and staged numerous attacks against US troops in Iraq.
In the years that followed, hundreds of thousands of people became victims of the military invasion, terrorism, and the civil war between the Shiites and Sunnis. It is still not known exactly how many people died during the eight years of the US operation in Iraq. The non-governmental organization Iraq Body Count (IBC) claims that by the summer of 2010, the number of civilian deaths ranged from 97,000 to 106,000 people. Other estimates state that almost half a million Iraqis died as a result of combat from 2003 to 2011. According to the Pentagon, the losses of US servicemen amounted to 4,487 people, and 66 soldiers died in Iraq after the end of the operation.

恐怖主義和無(wú)數(shù)受害者
美國(guó)干預(yù)的最大全球后果包括在敘利亞和伊拉克形成伊斯蘭國(guó)(IS，前身為ISIS)——從軍事和經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來(lái)看，伊斯蘭國(guó)已成為世界上最強(qiáng)大的恐怖組織。瓦西里耶夫指出，IS最初是由忠于侯賽因的前軍官組成的。伊斯蘭主義者視美國(guó)為占領(lǐng)者，對(duì)駐伊美軍發(fā)動(dòng)了多次襲擊。
在接下來(lái)的幾年里，成千上萬(wàn)的人成為軍事入侵、恐怖主義和什葉派和遜尼派之間內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的受害者。目前還不清楚在美國(guó)在伊拉克的8年行動(dòng)中究竟有多少人死亡。非政府組織伊拉克尸體統(tǒng)計(jì)(IBC)聲稱，截至2010年夏季，平民死亡人數(shù)在9.7萬(wàn)至10.6萬(wàn)之間。另有估計(jì)稱，從2003年到2011年，近50萬(wàn)伊拉克人死于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
根據(jù)五角大樓的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)軍人的死亡人數(shù)達(dá)到4487人，行動(dòng)結(jié)束后，66名士兵在伊拉克喪生。

In 2015, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq stated that the number of internally displaced persons in the country topped 3 million people.
Human Rights Watch also noted that a system of collective punishment against families suspected of affiliation with the Islamists formed in areas liberated from ISIS.

2015年，伊拉克副總理穆特拉克表示，國(guó)內(nèi)流離失所者的人數(shù)超過(guò)300萬(wàn)。
人權(quán)觀察還指出，在從伊斯蘭國(guó)解放出來(lái)的地區(qū)，建立了一個(gè)針對(duì)涉嫌與伊斯蘭主義者有關(guān)聯(lián)的家庭的集體懲罰制度。

US fiasco
“The Iraqi operation ended in a total fiasco in all aspects,” Vasiliev said.
He claims that the US failed in its crusade against the Islamic world, so Obama’s election was important not only from the standpoint of the anti-war movement in the US, but also in view of "extending an olive branch to the Islamic world.”
Washington did not manage to create a ‘showcase of democracy’ in Iraq which other Persian Gulf countries could emulate. The attempt to use Iraq as a stronghold for solving other geopolitical issues, including the fight against Iran, also fell through.
Moreover, Vasiliev believes that when US energy policy shifted, previous calculations regarding control over oil resources were no longer justified.

美國(guó)慘敗
瓦西里耶夫說(shuō):“在伊拉克的行動(dòng)在各方面都以徹底失敗告終。
他聲稱，美國(guó)對(duì)伊斯蘭世界的十字軍東征失敗了，所以?shī)W巴馬的當(dāng)選不僅從美國(guó)反戰(zhàn)運(yùn)動(dòng)的立場(chǎng)來(lái)看很重要，而且從“向伊斯蘭世界伸出橄欖枝”的角度來(lái)看也很重要。華盛頓沒(méi)能在伊拉克創(chuàng)造一個(gè)其他波斯灣國(guó)家可以效仿的“民主樣板”。利用伊拉克作為解決包括對(duì)抗伊朗在內(nèi)的其他地緣政治問(wèn)題的據(jù)點(diǎn)的企圖也失敗了。
此外，瓦西里耶夫認(rèn)為，當(dāng)美國(guó)能源政策發(fā)生變化時(shí)，之前關(guān)于控制石油資源的計(jì)算不再合理。
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“The reason for the fiasco was that, from the American standpoint, the neoliberal world order that won over Europe in the 1990s could be also applied to the Middle East. But this was not destined to come true,” Vasiliev said.
Ultimately, the invasion of Iraq turned many world leaders against the US.
“A powerful anti-American wave emerged. Never was it so strong as in that first decade of the 21st century. Germany and France, along with Russia, spoke out against the actions of the United States,” he explained.
Vasiliev added, however, that Europe’s “anti-Americanism vaccine” soon wore off, and the negative aspects of the US invasion gradually faded from memory with the departure of George W. Bush and the election of Barack Obama.

失敗的原因是，從美國(guó)的立場(chǎng)來(lái)看，上世紀(jì)90年代贏得歐洲的新自由主義世界秩序也可以適用于中東。但這注定不會(huì)成真，”瓦西里耶夫說(shuō)。
最終，入侵伊拉克讓許多世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人轉(zhuǎn)而反對(duì)美國(guó)。
他解釋說(shuō)，“一股強(qiáng)大的反美浪潮出現(xiàn)了。它從未像21世紀(jì)第一個(gè)十年那樣強(qiáng)大。德國(guó)、法國(guó)以及俄羅斯都公開(kāi)反對(duì)美國(guó)的行動(dòng)?！?br /> 然而，瓦西里耶夫補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，歐洲的“反美主義疫苗”很快就失效了，隨著喬治·W·布什的離任和巴拉克·奧巴馬的當(dāng)選，美國(guó)入侵的負(fù)面影響逐漸從記憶中消失。