The latest advances in AI (GPT, LLM, transformers, etc.) are like a Nokia phone in the 90''s – everyone could see the appeal, but no one could predict all that it would lead to. The tech world has a new obsession with Large Language Models (LLMs), GPTs, and AI in general.

人工智能的最新進(jìn)展（GPT、LLM[大規(guī)模語(yǔ)言模型--譯注]、transformers[一種神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)--譯注]等）就像90年代的諾基亞手機(jī)——每個(gè)人都能看到它的吸引力，但沒有人能預(yù)測(cè)它會(huì)帶來什么。科技界對(duì)大型語(yǔ)言模型（LLMs）、GPT和人工智能有了新的癡迷。

There is no question that LLMs and transformers are important technically, The latest developments mark a major breakthrough in software capabilities. That being said, we are not sure anyone really knows what to do with those capabilities.

毫無疑問，LLM和transformers在技術(shù)上是重要的，最新的發(fā)展標(biāo)志著軟件能力的重大突破。話雖如此，我們不確定是否有人真的知道如何使用這些能力。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


A few weeks ago, we spoke at the AI Edge Summit, where the organization's Chairman, Jeff Bier, said something that catalyzed our view of AI and GPT. To paraphrase, he said ChatGPT is like seeing the first Nokia phone in the 1990's. We had all heard about mobile phones before that, and these Nokia devices were for many the first phone that looked like something we would actually want to buy. But at the same time, no one looking at the device then would be able to predict all the things that would eventually stem from it – 3G, mobile data, smartphones, the iPhone, apps, and a complete reorganization of how we structure our time and daily activities.

幾周前，我們?cè)谌斯ぶ悄苓吘壏鍟?huì)上發(fā)言，該組織的主席Jeff Bier說了一些話，催化了我們對(duì)人工智能和GPT的看法。換句話說，ChatGPT就像是看到了上世紀(jì)90年代的第一部諾基亞手機(jī)。在此之前，我們都聽說過手機(jī)，這些諾基亞設(shè)備對(duì)許多人來說是第一部看起來像我們會(huì)真正想買的手機(jī)。但與此同時(shí)，當(dāng)時(shí)看到這款設(shè)備的任何人都無法預(yù)測(cè)它最終會(huì)帶來的所有東西——3G、移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)、智能手機(jī)、iPhone、應(yīng)用程序，以及我們?nèi)绾伟才艜r(shí)間和日?；顒?dòng)的完全重組。

That seems like a good analogy for ChatGPT. It is useful. The first "AI" application that is useful to ordinary people, but not something that is going to change their lives too meaningfully. For those who have been watching technology for a long time, it is clear that LLMs and transformers have immense potential, we may very well just be scratching the surface of what they can provide.

這似乎是ChatGPT的一個(gè)很好的類比。它是有用的。第一個(gè)對(duì)普通人有用的“人工智能”應(yīng)用，但不會(huì)對(duì)他們的生活產(chǎn)生太有意義的改變。對(duì)于那些長(zhǎng)期關(guān)注技術(shù)的人來說，很明顯LLM和transformers有著巨大的潛力，我們很可能只是觸及了它們所能提供的東西的表面。

This has a few implications for what happens next:

這對(duì)接下來發(fā)生的事情有幾點(diǎn)啟示：

1. We are very much in the middle of a massive hype cycle. Absent some incredible product surprise, this cycle will eventually fade away and turn to a trough of doubt and despair. It is no coincidence that the media's eye of Sauron has turned so intently on AI just as the rest of the Bubble is deflating.

1. 我們正處于一個(gè)大規(guī)模炒作周期的中間。如果沒有一些令人難以置信的產(chǎn)品驚喜，這個(gè)周期將最終消失，并轉(zhuǎn)向懷疑和絕望的低谷。就在泡沫的其他部分正在縮小的時(shí)候，媒體對(duì)索倫的關(guān)注轉(zhuǎn)向了人工智能，這并不是巧合。

2. No one really knows what all of this means. Maybe somewhere there is a rogue genius sitting in her cubicle or his mother's basement with a vision of 1,000 suns pointing the way forward. For everyone else, the future is much less certain. There are plenty of people who argue (very quietly right now) that AI is a dead end, with ChatGPT as just the latest version of chat bots (remember when those were the hot thing? It was only a few years ago.) There are also AI maximalists currently building their Skynet-proof bunkers in preparation for the imminent AI apocalypse because LLMs are just that awesome. Of course, the reality is somewhere in between.

2. 沒有人真正知道這一切意味著什么。也許在某個(gè)地方有一個(gè)流氓天才坐在她的小隔間里或他母親的地下室里，幻想著有1000個(gè)太陽(yáng)在指引著前進(jìn)的方向。對(duì)其他人來說，未來的確定性要小得多。有很多人認(rèn)為人工智能是一條死胡同，ChatGPT僅僅是聊天機(jī)器人的最新版本（還記得那些熱門的東西嗎？）這只是幾年前的事。）目前也有一些人工智能極端主義者正在建造他們的天網(wǎng)防御掩體，為即將到來的人工智能末日做準(zhǔn)備，因?yàn)長(zhǎng)LM就是這么棒。當(dāng)然，現(xiàn)實(shí)是介于兩者之間。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


3. We need to remember that AI is just software. These latest new tools are very powerful, but for the foreseeable future we should mostly just expect some aspects of our interaction with software to improve. Developers definitely seem to be enjoying huge benefits from tools like Microsoft's Copilot. Everyone else can probably just expect better written spam e-mail content for the time being.

我們需要記住，人工智能只是軟件。這些最新的新工具非常強(qiáng)大，但在可預(yù)見的未來，我們應(yīng)該主要期待我們與軟件交互的某些方面得到改善。開發(fā)人員似乎確實(shí)從微軟的Copilot(應(yīng)該指的是github的copilot--譯注)等工具中享受到了巨大的好處。其他人暫時(shí)只能期待一些有內(nèi)容變得更好的垃圾郵件。

We do not mean to be pessimistic, we are shooting for realistic. From what we can tell, LLMs and GPT offer huge potential to tackle really large data sets. Critically, transformers are probably going to allow us to interrogate problems that previously were too big to approach, or even data problems we had not even realized existed before. Moreover, there is the tantalizing possibility that these gains will be self-reinforcing, a Moore's Law for data analysis. This is important, albeit unexplored.

我們并不是要悲觀，我們正在追求現(xiàn)實(shí)。據(jù)我們所知，LLM和GPT提供了處理真正大型數(shù)據(jù)集的巨大潛力。至關(guān)重要的是，Transformer可能會(huì)讓我們審視以前太大而無法解決的問題，甚至是我們以前甚至沒有意識(shí)到存在的數(shù)據(jù)問題。此外，這些收益很可能會(huì)自我強(qiáng)化，這是數(shù)據(jù)分析的摩爾定律。這很重要，盡管尚未探索。

Finally, we think everyone needs to take a more sober approach to the ethics and societal implications of these tools. We do not usually cover this subject, and would skip over it here except for the fact that almost everyone engaged in these advances seems to be blithely (maybe deliberately) avoiding the subject.

最后，我們認(rèn)為每個(gè)人都需要對(duì)這些工具的倫理和社會(huì)影響采取更清醒的態(tài)度。我們通常不涉及這個(gè)主題，并且會(huì)在這里跳過它，幾乎每個(gè)參與這些發(fā)展的人似乎都在愉快地（也許是故意的）回避這個(gè)主題。

We are likely months away from the ability to create highly realistic videos of anything. Anything. That is going to mess with a lot of people's heads and maybe we should take a more constructive approach to preparing the world at large for what that means. At the same time, the alarmists calling for a complete end to AI need to face the reality that the ship has sailed.

我們可能還需要幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間才能制作出高度逼真的任何視頻。任何事物。這會(huì)擾亂很多人的頭腦，也許我們應(yīng)該采取更具建設(shè)性的方法讓整個(gè)世界為這意味著什么做好準(zhǔn)備。與此同時(shí)，呼吁徹底終結(jié)人工智能的危言聳聽者需要面對(duì)船已起航的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

All in all, we are deeply excited by these latest developments. After years of incremental SaaS improvements being hailed as "technology advances," it is exciting to have a genuinely compelling new capability before us. We just wish everyone would take a breath.

總而言之，我們對(duì)這些最新進(jìn)展深感興奮。經(jīng)過多年被譽(yù)為“技術(shù)進(jìn)步”的SaaS(軟件即服務(wù)--譯注)的不斷改進(jìn)之后，在我們面前真正擁有引人注目的新功能是令人興奮的。我們希望每個(gè)人都能喘口氣。