Scientists now have unambiguous proof that a phenomenon critical to predicting the impact of climate change exists.
Researchers announced Thursday that they had detected the sea level “fingerprint” of the Greenland ice sheet melt, pinpointing the unique pattern of sea level change lixed to the melting ice.
It’s the first time such a fingerprint has been definitively measured. While scientists agreed such fingerprints theoretically exist, the dynamic nature of the ocean had made it difficult to identify them confidently — until now.

科學(xué)家們現(xiàn)在有了明確的證據(jù)，證明了存在一種對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)氣候變化影響至關(guān)重要的現(xiàn)象
研究人員周四宣布，他們已經(jīng)檢測(cè)到了格陵蘭冰蓋融化的海平面 "指紋"，準(zhǔn)確地指出了與冰層融化有關(guān)的海平面變化的獨(dú)特模式。
這是首次對(duì)這種指紋進(jìn)行明確測(cè)量。雖然科學(xué)家們?cè)J(rèn)為這種指紋在理論上是存在的，但是海洋的動(dòng)態(tài)性質(zhì)使得我們很難有把握地識(shí)別它們，不過(guò)現(xiàn)在可以了。

The findings, which were possible with the help of high-resolution satellite observations, detail the unique pattern of sea level change lixed to the Greenland ice sheet. The fingerprints are factored into models to predict overall sea level rise.
The discovery confirms and adds confidence to the sea level changes forecast by computational models. They are critical for understanding the consequences of climate change and preparing for future hazards. It is now more than clear that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating, said Sophie Coulson a postdoctoral fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Coulson is the lead author of the study that led to the findings, which were published in the journal Science.

借助于高分辨率衛(wèi)星觀測(cè)，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)詳細(xì)描述了與格陵蘭冰原相關(guān)的海平面變化的獨(dú)特模式。這些指紋被納入預(yù)測(cè)整體海平面上升的模型之中。
這一發(fā)現(xiàn)證實(shí)并增加了計(jì)算模型對(duì)海平面變化預(yù)報(bào)的可信度。它們對(duì)于理解氣候變化的后果和為未來(lái)的災(zāi)害做好準(zhǔn)備至關(guān)重要。洛斯阿拉莫斯國(guó)家實(shí)驗(yàn)室的博士后蘇菲·庫(kù)爾森表示，現(xiàn)在非常清楚的是，格陵蘭冰原正在加速融化。庫(kù)爾森是這項(xiàng)研究的主要作者，該研究導(dǎo)致了這一發(fā)現(xiàn)，并發(fā)表在《科學(xué)》雜志上。

Until recently, fingerprint science was restrained by a lack of satellite observations — records documented only the southern tip of Greenland, making it difficult to examine the oceans around it.
The Greenland ice sheet, which covers almost 80% of the island country, contains enormous quantities of frozen water. The rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet is responsible for 20% of the current sea level rise globally, and a recent study predicted its disintegration would raise global sea levels by at least 10 inches, even if people stop burning fossil fuels.

直到最近，指紋科學(xué)還因缺乏衛(wèi)星觀測(cè)而受到限制，只有格陵蘭島南端的記錄，這使得研究其周?chē)暮Ｑ笞兊美щy。
格陵蘭冰原覆蓋了這座島國(guó)近80%的面積，其中含有大量的冰凍水。目前全球海平面上升的20%是由于格陵蘭冰原的快速融化造成的，最近的一項(xiàng)研究預(yù)測(cè)，即使人們停止燃燒化石燃料，它的解體也會(huì)使全球海平面上升至少10英寸。

The study was possible thanks to new satellite data shared by the Copernicus Marine Service, data that spanned over 30 years and extended to higher latitudes. Coulson plugged observations of ice-thickness change into a computational model and created a prediction of sea level from 1993 to 2019. She then compared the forecast against the new satellite data — and found a perfect match.

這項(xiàng)研究之所以成為可能，是因?yàn)楦绨啄岷Ｑ缶址窒砹诵碌男l(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)跨越了30多年，并延伸到了更高的緯度。庫(kù)爾森將冰層厚度變化的觀測(cè)結(jié)果輸入一個(gè)計(jì)算模型，并對(duì)1993年至2019年的海平面進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。然后，她將預(yù)報(bào)與新的衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了比較，發(fā)現(xiàn)完美匹配。

“It was really an exciting moment for us when we first looked at that side-by-side comparison of those observations to the model predictions,” Coulson said. “The images were staggeringly similar.”

庫(kù)爾森說(shuō)：“當(dāng)我們第一次看到這些觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)與模型預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)并排比較時(shí)，這真是一個(gè)令人興奮的時(shí)刻。這些圖像驚人地相似?！?/b>

It was especially surprising because it’s unusual in geophysics to prove something is happening with a certainty of more than 99.9%, Coulson said. But it was clear that the pattern of sea level change revealed by the satellites was the fingerprint of the melting ice sheet — and that the estimation of sea level change predicted by both earlier models and Coulson’s new one was accurate.

庫(kù)爾森說(shuō)，這尤其讓人驚訝，因?yàn)樵诘厍蛭锢韺W(xué)中，以超過(guò)99.9%的確定性來(lái)證明某些事情正在發(fā)生是不尋常的。但是很明顯，衛(wèi)星揭示的海平面變化模式是正在融化的冰蓋的指紋，而且早期模型和庫(kù)爾森的新模型預(yù)測(cè)的海平面變化的估計(jì)都是準(zhǔn)確的。

“We can really say with great certainty that sea level fingerprints exist,” Coulson said. “The theory was correct.”

庫(kù)爾森表示“我們可以非?？隙ǖ卣f(shuō)，海平面指紋是存在的，這個(gè)理論是正確的?！?/b>

Knowing fingerprints can be a tool to accurately predict sea level change is critical because the future of Earth’s oceans is so uncertain.

了解指紋可以成為準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)海平面變化的工具，這一點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)榈厍蚝Ｑ蟮奈磥?lái)十分不確定。

“We know global sea levels will rise and that the amount and pace of sea level rise will depend on our greenhouse gas emissions,” Yarrow Axford, an associate professor at Northwestern University who studies the impact of climate change on Greenland’s glaciers and ice sheet, said by email. She was not a part of Coulson’s study.

“我們知道全球海平面將上升，海平面上升的幅度和速度將取決于我們的溫室氣體排放，”研究氣候變化對(duì)格陵蘭島冰川和冰蓋影響的美國(guó)西北大學(xué)副教授亞羅·阿克斯福德在電子郵件中表示。她沒(méi)有參與庫(kù)爾森研究的對(duì)象。

“But how fast the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will respond to warming is a really big unknown, and frankly a very scary unknown,” Axford said.

“但是格陵蘭島和南極洲的冰原對(duì)氣候變暖的反應(yīng)速度究竟有多快，仍然是個(gè)未知數(shù)，坦率地說(shuō)，這是一個(gè)非?？膳碌奈粗獢?shù)”阿克斯福德說(shuō)。

Fingerprints are already used to inform ocean level projections and coastal planning. In the U.S., an estimated 30% of the population lives in coastline communities. Every inch of sea level rise is expected to make coastal storms more catastrophic for those populations.

指紋已經(jīng)被用于海平面預(yù)測(cè)和海岸規(guī)劃。在美國(guó)，估計(jì)有30%的人口生活在沿海社區(qū)。預(yù)計(jì)海平面每上升一英寸，都會(huì)使沿海風(fēng)暴對(duì)這些人口造成更大的災(zāi)難。

That is partly because sea level changes can lead to more destructive storm surges, one of the deadliest aspects of hurricanes. Hurricane Ian’s storm surge, along with its winds and flooding rain, has caused devastation across Cuba and Florida. Sea level rise, along with other aspects of climate change, is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

這在一定程度上是因?yàn)楹Ｆ矫娴淖兓赡軐?dǎo)致更具破壞性的風(fēng)暴潮，這是颶風(fēng)最致命的方面之一。颶風(fēng)伊恩的風(fēng)暴潮，以及它帶來(lái)的風(fēng)和洪水雨，已經(jīng)在古巴和佛羅里達(dá)造成了破壞。海平面上升，以及氣候變化的其他方面，預(yù)計(jì)將增加颶風(fēng)的強(qiáng)度和頻率。

“We’re already being forced to adapt to sea level rise around the world, and we need to do a lot more still to prepare,” Axford said. “Having decent projections of how fast our coastlines will retreat is essential for making tough decisions and the right big investments now in preparation for future sea level rise.”

“我們已經(jīng)被迫適應(yīng)世界各地的海平面上升，我們需要做更多的準(zhǔn)備,”?？怂垢５抡f(shuō)。“對(duì)于我們的海岸線(xiàn)將以多快的速度撤退，有一個(gè)合理的預(yù)測(cè)，對(duì)于做出艱難決定和現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行正確的大規(guī)模投資，為未來(lái)海平面上升做好準(zhǔn)備，是至關(guān)重要的。”

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