Hurricane Lee grew from a category one storm to a category five hurricane in 24 hours. Experts say such storms are more likely in a warming world.

颶風(fēng)“李”在24小時內(nèi)從一級風(fēng)暴升級為五級颶風(fēng)。專家表示，這樣的風(fēng)暴更有可能發(fā)生在一個變暖的世界。

As Hurricane Lee brought large swells and ferocious winds to batter the Caribbean islands, experts said the storm – which quickly and unexpectedly intensified into the highest category five strength – could be a sign of what's to come as the world's oceans warm up.

隨著颶風(fēng)“李”帶來的巨浪和狂風(fēng)襲擊加勒比海島嶼，專家們表示，這場風(fēng)暴迅速出人意料地增強到最高的五級強度，可能是世界海洋變暖即將到來的一個跡象。

The hurricane, which reached 160mph (258km/h) winds on Friday (8 September), was a category one storm on Thursday but intensified to a category five, increasing by 85mph (137km/h) in just 24 hours. The increase made the hurricane, which meteorologists dubbed "rare", the third-fastest rapid intensification in the Atlantic. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the definition of rapid intensification is a 35mph (56km/h) over a one-day period – which Lee greatly exceeded.

颶風(fēng)在周五(9月8日)風(fēng)速達到160英里/小時(258公里/小時)，周四為一級風(fēng)暴，但在24小時內(nèi)增強為五級風(fēng)暴，風(fēng)速增加了85英里/小時(137公里/小時)。颶風(fēng)強度的增加使得這場被氣象學(xué)家稱為“罕見”的颶風(fēng)成為大西洋上第三快的快速增強。根據(jù)美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(NOAA)的定義，快速強化的定義是在一天內(nèi)達到35英里/小時(56公里/小時)，而李大大超過了這一速度。

Only two other Atlantic hurricanes in history have intensified more rapidly – Felix in 2007, and Wilma in 2005 – and only 4.5% of named storms in the Atlantic have grown to a category five in the past decade.

歷史上只有另外兩個大西洋颶風(fēng)的強度比它更快——2007年的費利克斯和2005年的威爾瑪——而且在過去的十年里，大西洋上只有4.5%的風(fēng)暴達到了五級。

Some climate scientists were stunned over not just Lee's sudden intensification – and then rapid weakening – but also the timing of Jova, which rapidly ballooned into a category five storm as it made its way over the Pacific Ocean at the same time Lee was forming. These two huge storms formed as the US Atlantic hurricane season peaked on 10 September.

一些氣候科學(xué)家不僅對“李”的突然增強——然后迅速減弱——感到震驚，而且對“約瓦”形成的時間也感到震驚。在“李”形成的同時，“約瓦”在太平洋上空迅速膨脹為五級風(fēng)暴。這兩個巨大的風(fēng)暴形成于9月10日美國大西洋颶風(fēng)季的高峰。

The increase in hurricane intensity is a harbinger of the future, according to Jeff Masters, a meteorologist at Yale Climate Connections (a Yale University-funded climate media forum) and former NOAA scientist. "We should expect more cases of rapid intensification as the climate continues to warm."

颶風(fēng)強度的增加是未來的預(yù)兆，耶魯氣候聯(lián)系(耶魯大學(xué)資助的氣候媒體論壇)的氣象學(xué)家、前NOAA科學(xué)家杰夫·馬斯特斯(Jeff Masters)說?！半S著氣候繼續(xù)變暖，我們預(yù)計會有更多的情況迅速加劇。”

Hugh Willoughby, research professor at Florida International University's National Hurricane Research Center says a major hurricane intensifying rapidly isn't out of the ordinary, as that's just how they form -– and the surprise is these hurricanes are happening during an El Ni?o.

佛羅里達國際大學(xué)國家颶風(fēng)研究中心的研究教授休·威洛比(Hugh Willoughby)表示，快速增強的大型颶風(fēng)并不罕見，因為這就是它們形成的方式——令人驚訝的是，這些颶風(fēng)發(fā)生在厄爾尼諾期間。
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"What's weird is that there's an El Ni?o going on, and normally an El Ni?o is a death on hurricanes – it prevents formation of really nasty hurricanes," he says. "But the conventional wisdom is that this is [still happening] because the ocean is so hot, and that's really interesting."

他說:“奇怪的是，有一個厄爾尼諾正在發(fā)生，通常情況下，厄爾尼諾是颶風(fēng)的死亡——它阻止了真正令人討厭的颶風(fēng)的形成。”“但傳統(tǒng)觀點認(rèn)為，這種情況(仍在發(fā)生)是因為海洋太熱了，這真的很有趣。”

There's "pretty convincing evidence", he adds, that major hurricanes are becoming more common.

他補充說，有“相當(dāng)令人信服的證據(jù)”表明，大型颶風(fēng)正變得越來越常見。

Research has shown the proportion of tropical cyclones that reach category four and five is projected to increase due to global warming. Cyclones – or hurricanes, the term depends on their geographical location – form over warm sea surfaces; as water evaporates off the ocean's surface, it rises as humid air, creating an area of lower air pressure below, causing more air to rush in, which in turn warms and rises. The air that rises eventually cools, forming clouds and thunderstorms, and a system that spins and grows, fed by the ocean's heat and water evaporating from the surface. When wind speeds reach 74mph (119km/h), they're classed as a hurricane or cyclone.

研究表明，由于全球變暖，預(yù)計達到4級和5級的熱帶氣旋比例將增加。氣旋——或颶風(fēng)，這個術(shù)語取決于它們的地理位置——在溫暖的海面上形成;當(dāng)水從海洋表面蒸發(fā)時，它會以潮濕空氣的形式上升，在下面形成一個氣壓較低的區(qū)域，導(dǎo)致更多的空氣涌入，反過來又變暖并上升。上升的空氣最終冷卻，形成云和雷暴，以及一個旋轉(zhuǎn)和增長的系統(tǒng)，由海洋的熱量和從表面蒸發(fā)的水提供能量。當(dāng)風(fēng)速達到74英里/小時(119公里/小時)時，就被歸類為颶風(fēng)或氣旋。

Since industrialisation, humans have been fuelling the rapid rise of greenhouse gases, which have increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. And the costs, both on human life and the economy of extreme weather events, are rising.

自工業(yè)化以來，人類一直在推動溫室氣體的迅速增加，這增加了極端天氣事件的頻率和強度。極端天氣事件給人類生命和經(jīng)濟造成的損失正在上升。

"What we need to worry about are storms that become major hurricanes becoming more frequent and doing more damage," adds Willoughby. "We have every reason to expect them to become more common, and it's going to get worse."

威洛比補充說:“我們需要擔(dān)心的是，成為主要颶風(fēng)的風(fēng)暴會變得更加頻繁，造成更大的破壞?！薄拔覀冇谐浞值睦碛善诖鼈冏兊迷絹碓狡毡?，而且情況會變得更糟?！?/b>

When hurricanes make landfall they begin to decrease in strength because they no longer gain energy from the ocean. However, they can still wreak devastation. When Hurricane Maria, a category five storm, hit the northeastern Caribbean in 2017, it killed as many as 4,600 people in Puerto Rico alone, causing power cuts, broken roads, and knocking out water services. It was the strongest hurricane to hit the island in a century.

當(dāng)颶風(fēng)登陸時，它們的強度開始減弱，因為它們不再從海洋中獲得能量。然而，它們?nèi)匀豢梢栽斐善茐摹?017年，當(dāng)五級颶風(fēng)瑪麗亞襲擊加勒比海東北部時，僅在波多黎各就造成多達4600人死亡，造成停電、道路斷裂和供水中斷。這是一個世紀(jì)以來襲擊該島的最強颶風(fēng)。

In the Northwest Pacific, Hurricane Patricia, which hit in 2015, was the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record. It was also the strongest storm in terms of wind speed, with winds of 214mph (345km/h). The death toll, almost unbelievably, was zero. The strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed was Hurricane Allen in 1980, which caused nearly 300 deaths in Haiti and whose winds reached 190mph (306km/h).

在西北太平洋，2015年襲擊的颶風(fēng)帕特里夏是有記錄以來登陸太平洋的最強颶風(fēng)。就風(fēng)速而言，它也是最強的風(fēng)暴，風(fēng)速為每小時214英里(345公里)。幾乎令人難以置信的是，死亡人數(shù)為零。按風(fēng)速計算，最強的大西洋颶風(fēng)是1980年的颶風(fēng)艾倫，在海地造成近300人死亡，風(fēng)速達到每小時190英里(每小時306公里)。

Economic harms – and billion dollar disasters – caused by extreme weather events are becoming more commonplace. Hurricane Katrina remains the costliest hurricane on record. The 2005 event, which destroyed more than 800,000 homes and brought catastrophic flooding to Louisiana, is estimated to have cost the US $193.8bn (￡155bn).

極端天氣事件造成的經(jīng)濟損失和數(shù)十億美元的災(zāi)難正變得越來越普遍?？ㄌ乩锬蕊Z風(fēng)仍然是有記錄以來造成損失最大的颶風(fēng)。2005年的地震摧毀了80多萬所房屋，并給路易斯安那州帶來了災(zāi)難性的洪水，據(jù)估計損失了1938億美元(1550億英鎊)。

Although the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific have their fair share of hurricanes, one of the most active tropical cyclone basins is in the Western Pacific, where there are warmer sea surface temperatures, which cyclones need to thrive. The strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide – measured by the storm's central pressure – was Typhoon Tip in 1979, which reached wind speeds of 190mph (306km/h) and killed 99 people, mostly in Japan.

雖然大西洋和東北太平洋有相當(dāng)一部分颶風(fēng)，但最活躍的熱帶氣旋盆地之一是在西太平洋，那里的海面溫度較高，氣旋需要在那里茁壯成長。世界上有記錄以來最強的熱帶氣旋——以風(fēng)暴的中心氣壓來衡量——是1979年的臺風(fēng)泰普，它的風(fēng)速達到每小時190英里(306公里/小時)，造成99人死亡，其中大部分在日本。

The deadliest cyclone, however, happened in 1970, caused between 300,000 to 500,000 fatalities in what is now Bangladesh. The deaths were mostly caused by a large storm surge which overwhelmed the low-lying islands and led to the United Nations calling for ways to mitigate the harmful effects of tropical cyclones.

然而，最致命的颶風(fēng)發(fā)生在1970年，在現(xiàn)在的孟加拉國造成30萬至50萬人死亡。死亡主要是由一場巨大的風(fēng)暴潮造成的，這場風(fēng)暴潮淹沒了低洼的島嶼，導(dǎo)致聯(lián)合國呼吁采取措施減輕熱帶氣旋的有害影響。

Although some scientists say it is too early to correlate rising ocean temperatures with an increase in hurricanes and cyclones, warmer waters do intensify wind speeds – making these storms more dangerous if they make landfall.

盡管一些科學(xué)家說，將海洋溫度上升與颶風(fēng)和旋風(fēng)的增加聯(lián)系起來還為時過早，但溫暖的海水確實加劇了風(fēng)速——如果這些風(fēng)暴登陸，它們會變得更加危險。

"It's unclear at the present whether the recent years of increased storms constitutes a trend," says Jordan Gerth, research meteorologist at the Space Science and Engineering Center in Wisconsin. He notes there have been a greater number of named storms than the historical average, but that this may be due to improvements in the quality of meteorological observations, including NOAA upgrading its satellite system and forecasting models.

“目前還不清楚近年來風(fēng)暴的增加是否構(gòu)成了一種趨勢，”威斯康星州空間科學(xué)與工程中心的研究氣象學(xué)家喬丹·格特說。他指出，被命名的風(fēng)暴數(shù)量超過了歷史平均水平，但這可能是由于氣象觀測質(zhì)量的提高，包括美國國家海洋和大氣管理局升級了其衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)和預(yù)報模型。

"However," he continues, "due to increases in water temperature, a primary source of fuel that can increase the intensity of hurricanes, we expect, and are witnessing, an increase in the number of major hurricanes. In other words, a hurricane is more likely to intensify in today's climate than in years past."

“然而，”他繼續(xù)說，“由于水溫升高，水溫是燃料的主要來源，可以增加颶風(fēng)的強度，我們預(yù)計，并且正在目睹，主要颶風(fēng)的數(shù)量增加。換句話說，在今天的氣候條件下，颶風(fēng)比過去更有可能加劇?！?/b>

Despite slowing down over the weekend to a category four, Lee is expected to cause "hazardous beach conditions" around the US East Coast, Bermuda, and the Bahamas throughout the coming week. Experts at the National Hurricane Center also predicted the hurricane would grow in size again over the coming days, but that it was still too soon to know the level of impact, if any.

盡管颶風(fēng)在周末減弱至四級，但預(yù)計在未來一周內(nèi)，“李”將在美國東海岸、百慕大和巴哈馬群島附近造成“危險的海灘狀況”。美國國家颶風(fēng)中心(National Hurricane Center)的專家還預(yù)測，在未來幾天，颶風(fēng)的規(guī)模將再次擴大，但現(xiàn)在要知道颶風(fēng)的影響程度(如果有影響的話)還為時過早。

"What we can learn from these storms," Gerth warns, "is more socioeconomic than meteorological. US infrastructure and communities are vulnerable."

“我們可以從這些風(fēng)暴中學(xué)到什么，”格特警告說，“更多的是社會經(jīng)濟而不是氣象。美國的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和社區(qū)很脆弱。”