話題討論：烏克蘭總司令扎盧日內(nèi)與總統(tǒng)澤連斯基鬧內(nèi)訌，并向美國獅子大開口，要求提供1700萬枚炮彈，3500-4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員--part1
UA POV: Zaluhzny complained to Pentagon chief about the President’s Office and asked for 17 million shells - Pravda
譯文簡介
扎盧日內(nèi)向五角大樓負責人抱怨本國總統(tǒng)辦公室，并要求提供1700萬枚炮彈
正文翻譯
原標題：扎盧日內(nèi)向五角大樓負責人抱怨本國總統(tǒng)辦公室，并要求提供1700萬枚炮彈——《真理報》
Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi asked Pentagon chief for 17 million rounds of ammunition
扎盧日內(nèi)總司令要求五角大樓提供1700萬發(fā)彈藥。
扎盧日內(nèi)總司令要求五角大樓提供1700萬發(fā)彈藥。
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was informed during a visit to Kyiv that Ukraine needed 17 million rounds of ammunition and that US$350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel would be required to liberate the country.
美國國防部長勞埃德·奧斯汀在訪問基輔期間被告知，烏克蘭需要1700萬發(fā)彈藥，而且解放這個國家需要價值3500-4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員。
美國國防部長勞埃德·奧斯汀在訪問基輔期間被告知，烏克蘭需要1700萬發(fā)彈藥，而且解放這個國家需要價值3500-4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員。
Source: War vs politics: what’s really going on between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi?, an article by Ukrainska Pravda
來源：“戰(zhàn)爭與政治：澤連斯基和扎盧日內(nèi)之間到底發(fā)生了什么?”烏克蘭真理報的一篇文章
來源：“戰(zhàn)爭與政治：澤連斯基和扎盧日內(nèi)之間到底發(fā)生了什么?”烏克蘭真理報的一篇文章
Quote: "According to Ukrainska Pravda, the General Staff’s calculations show that achieving the president’s obxtive of liberating the entire territory of Ukraine will require US$350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel."
引用:“根據(jù)《烏克蘭真理報》，總參謀部的計算表明，要實現(xiàn)總統(tǒng)解放烏克蘭全境的目標，將需要價值3500-4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員?！?/b>
引用:“根據(jù)《烏克蘭真理報》，總參謀部的計算表明，要實現(xiàn)總統(tǒng)解放烏克蘭全境的目標，將需要價值3500-4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員?！?/b>
Details: The General Staff shared some planning ideas with Austin during his visit to Kyiv in November.
細節(jié)：總參謀部在奧斯丁11月訪問基輔期間與他分享了一些規(guī)劃想法。
細節(jié)：總參謀部在奧斯丁11月訪問基輔期間與他分享了一些規(guī)劃想法。
Quote from a senior Defence Forces official: "Austin was told 17 million rounds of ammunition were needed. He was stunned, to put it mildly, because you wouldn’t be able to collect that many rounds in the whole world."
引用一位高級國防官員的話:“奧斯汀被告知需要1700萬發(fā)彈藥。說得委婉點，他驚呆了，因為全世界都不可能收集到那么多彈藥?！?/b>
引用一位高級國防官員的話:“奧斯汀被告知需要1700萬發(fā)彈藥。說得委婉點，他驚呆了，因為全世界都不可能收集到那么多彈藥?！?/b>
In addition, according to a source, Austin also said Zaluzhnyi had complained privately to American generals about interference from the President’s Office (this news was initially worded: "Austin also said Zaluzhnyi had complained to him about interference from the President’s Office"): "Austin told us privately that Zaluzhnyi was always complaining to his generals about the President’s Office and how it obstructed him. Well, obviously the president learned about those conversations too. And that isn’t conducive to trust."
此外，據(jù)消息來源說，奧斯汀還說扎盧日內(nèi)曾私下向美國將軍抱怨該國總統(tǒng)辦公室的干涉(這個消息最初的表述是:“奧斯汀還說扎盧日內(nèi)曾向他抱怨總統(tǒng)辦公室的干涉”):“奧斯汀私下告訴我們，扎盧日內(nèi)總是向他的將軍抱怨總統(tǒng)辦公室如何妨礙他。顯然，總統(tǒng)也知道了這些談話。而這不利于建立信任。”
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此外，據(jù)消息來源說，奧斯汀還說扎盧日內(nèi)曾私下向美國將軍抱怨該國總統(tǒng)辦公室的干涉(這個消息最初的表述是:“奧斯汀還說扎盧日內(nèi)曾向他抱怨總統(tǒng)辦公室的干涉”):“奧斯汀私下告訴我們，扎盧日內(nèi)總是向他的將軍抱怨總統(tǒng)辦公室如何妨礙他。顯然，總統(tǒng)也知道了這些談話。而這不利于建立信任。”
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However, the President’s Office is inclined to believe that Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal would facilitate his political career.
然而，總統(tǒng)辦公室傾向于認為，解雇扎盧日內(nèi)將有利于他的政治生涯。
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然而，總統(tǒng)辦公室傾向于認為，解雇扎盧日內(nèi)將有利于他的政治生涯。
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Ukrainska Pravda sources from Zelenskyy’s inner circle say Bankova Street (the President’s Office) is well aware of this, so a significant part of the president’s team is strongly opposed to the current Commander-in-Chief stepping down.
《烏克蘭真理報》來自澤連斯基核心圈子的消息稱，總統(tǒng)辦公室非常清楚這一點，因此總統(tǒng)團隊中有相當一部分人強烈反對現(xiàn)任總司令下臺。
《烏克蘭真理報》來自澤連斯基核心圈子的消息稱，總統(tǒng)辦公室非常清楚這一點，因此總統(tǒng)團隊中有相當一部分人強烈反對現(xiàn)任總司令下臺。
Background:
背景：
背景：
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said in an interview that the situation at the front has reached a stalemate, where neither side can advance because they are technologically equipped at the same level, and the war is moving to the stage of positional fighting.
烏克蘭武裝部隊總司令瓦萊里·扎盧日內(nèi)在接受采訪時表示，前線的局勢已經(jīng)陷入僵局，雙方都無法前進，因為他們的技術(shù)裝備處于同一水平，戰(zhàn)爭正在進入陣地戰(zhàn)階段。
烏克蘭武裝部隊總司令瓦萊里·扎盧日內(nèi)在接受采訪時表示，前線的局勢已經(jīng)陷入僵局，雙方都無法前進，因為他們的技術(shù)裝備處于同一水平，戰(zhàn)爭正在進入陣地戰(zhàn)階段。
President Zelenskyy has said he does not think the situation on the front in Ukraine is a stalemate and Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia.
澤連斯基總統(tǒng)表示，他認為烏克蘭前線的局勢不會陷入僵局，烏克蘭不會與俄羅斯談判。
澤連斯基總統(tǒng)表示，他認為烏克蘭前線的局勢不會陷入僵局，烏克蘭不會與俄羅斯談判。
Zelenskyy told British tabloid The Sun on 21 November that military personnel who are going to enter politics should not "deal with war".
澤連斯基在11月21日接受英國小報《太陽報》采訪時表示，打算從政的軍人不應(yīng)該“處理戰(zhàn)爭”。
澤連斯基在11月21日接受英國小報《太陽報》采訪時表示，打算從政的軍人不應(yīng)該“處理戰(zhàn)爭”。
On 29 November, The Economist wrote that parallel to the grim reality of trench warfare, the "political battlefield" in Kyiv is becoming more and more tense. President Zelenskyy sees a competitor in Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and the political threat is harming Ukraine.
11月29日，《經(jīng)濟學人》寫道，與塹壕戰(zhàn)的殘酷現(xiàn)實相對應(yīng)，基輔的“政治戰(zhàn)場”正變得越來越緊張。澤連斯基總統(tǒng)將總司令瓦萊里·扎盧日內(nèi)視為競爭對手，這種政治威脅正在傷害烏克蘭。
11月29日，《經(jīng)濟學人》寫道，與塹壕戰(zhàn)的殘酷現(xiàn)實相對應(yīng)，基輔的“政治戰(zhàn)場”正變得越來越緊張。澤連斯基總統(tǒng)將總司令瓦萊里·扎盧日內(nèi)視為競爭對手，這種政治威脅正在傷害烏克蘭。
The Economist wrote that it had obtained access to an internal poll in Ukraine, and the results suggest that "Zelenskyy risks losing the presidential election if he ever comes face-to-face with his commander-in-chief."
《經(jīng)濟學人》寫道，它獲得了烏克蘭的一項內(nèi)部民意調(diào)查，結(jié)果表明，“如果澤連斯基與他的總司令對決，他可能會在總統(tǒng)選舉中失敗。”
《經(jīng)濟學人》寫道，它獲得了烏克蘭的一項內(nèi)部民意調(diào)查，結(jié)果表明，“如果澤連斯基與他的總司令對決，他可能會在總統(tǒng)選舉中失敗。”
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The Battle Between Zelensky and Zaluhzny is now in full swing
澤連斯基和扎盧日內(nèi)之間的戰(zhàn)斗正進行的如火如荼。
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此外，當他們做對了的時候，這一點也不會被提及，但是一些Telegram的消息來源應(yīng)該得到掌聲——他們準確地預(yù)測和說出了這場迷你沖突中的一切。
這給我留下了深刻的印象。下次我讀到無處不在的“大新聞”時，如果是我們總統(tǒng)辦公室的線人說的……，也許我就不會那么懷疑了。
Zelensky is going to soon launch a counteroffensive on zalunzhy soon. Sssshhhh
澤連斯基很快就要對扎盧日內(nèi)發(fā)動反攻了。嘻嘻嘻。
It's already undergoing, and with more success than the great autumn one.
已經(jīng)在進行了，而且比秋天的那次更成功。
Lloyd Austin, Head of the Pentagon, was informed during his visit that Ukraine requires 17 million shells and that US$350-400 billion worth of force and resources will be essential to liberate the country.
五角大樓首腦勞埃德·奧斯汀在訪問期間被告知，烏克蘭需要1700萬枚炮彈，解放這個國家需要價值3500 -4000億美元的武力和資源。
祝你好運，你能得到這兩個數(shù)字的10%就很幸運了。
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Quote: "Austin was told about the need for 17 million shells. He, to put it mildly, was stunned, because you wouldn’t be able to collect so many shells all over the world.
引文:“奧斯汀被告知需要1700萬枚炮彈。委婉地說，他驚呆了，因為全世界都不可能收集到這么多的彈藥。
哦，這就是不久前訪問烏克蘭的那個勞埃德·奧斯汀，對吧? 我猜他們沒告訴他這個小問題。
No that was Beetlejuice.
不，那個是Beetle juice（《陰間大法師》）。
$400 billion?! Congress is deadlocked trying to pass a $100 billion package, of which only a portion is for Ukraine.
4000億美元? ! 國會在試圖通過一項1000億美元的一攬子計劃時都陷入僵局，而且其中只有一部分是給烏克蘭的。
$400 billion? Why do they need $200 billion? $100 billion is a lot of money and we don't have the budget for it. Here is $10b, split it with Israel.
“4000億美元? ”
“他們?yōu)槭裁葱枰?000億美元? ”
“1000億美元是一大筆錢，我們沒有足夠的預(yù)算?！?br /> “這是100億美元，跟以色列分一分?！?/b>
To me as a complete armchair general even the quoted 400 billion $ figure feels like it's severely lowballing how much resources UA would need to retake all occupied territory, especially that which was lost in 2014. I could maybe buy it if Russia was still fighting as unseriously as they were pre-Sept 2022, but with them constantly growing and improving their military (not to mention constantly fortifying the land they hold and the potential for further mobilization if things start getting out of hand) it's very hard to believe that 400 bil $ (comparing it to the 120 or so billion provided so far) would be enough at this point.
對我一個鍵盤俠而言，即使是所說4000億美元那個數(shù)字，也嚴重低估了烏克蘭重新占領(lǐng)所有被占領(lǐng)領(lǐng)土所需的資源，尤其是2014年失去的領(lǐng)土。如果俄羅斯仍然像2022年9月之前那樣不認真地戰(zhàn)斗，我可能會同意，但是隨著他們不斷發(fā)展，并改善他們的軍事力量(更不用說不斷加強他們所占據(jù)的土地，以及如果事情開始失控時進一步動員的潛力)，目前很難相信4000億美元(與目前提供的1200億美元相比)就足夠了。
Really depends on the time frx. But it doesn't take that much to tip the scale. We can see how areas of the front hold for a long time, but some increase in local pressure causes an advance. Basically trippling the military aid in a short time frx would result in a complete unbalance. In addition, reaching a strength superiority somewhere often results in taking fewer losses, so any superiority not only gives more strength in that sector, but also preserves more strength to use in other sectors.
這個數(shù)字真的取決于哪段時間。但并不需要那么多就能扭轉(zhuǎn)局面。我們可以看到交鋒地區(qū)長時間維持不變，但是局部壓力的增加導致了前進。在短時間內(nèi)將軍事援助基本上增加兩倍，將導致完全的不平衡。此外，在某個地區(qū)達到實力優(yōu)勢往往會導致?lián)p失減少，所以任何優(yōu)勢不僅在該地區(qū)賦予了更多的實力，而且還保留了更多的實力，可以用于其他地區(qū)。
Many months are involved between passing a aid bill and all of pledged things reaching the front even years. EU still can't fulfill their ammo pledge and the year is about to end
從通過一項援助法案到所有承諾的東西到達前線，中間需要幾個月甚至幾年的時間。歐盟仍然不能履行他們的彈藥承諾，而今年就要結(jié)束了。
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The EU ammo pledge is from spring 2023 till spring 2024, but yeah, they'll likely still miss the target.
歐盟的彈藥承諾從2023年春季到2024年春季，但是，是的，他們可能仍然無法實現(xiàn)這個目標。
trippling the military aid in a short time frx would result in a complete unbalance.
"在短時間內(nèi)將軍事援助增加兩倍將導致完全不平衡。"
如果我們談?wù)摰氖歉嘞嗤愋偷脑?，我真的不清楚。如果以目前的技術(shù)支持防御，那么收益遞減效應(yīng)可能很大?？赡茏罱K給防御一方造成一個全是靶子的環(huán)境，并遭受巨大損失。
Yup. It's surprising that people don't understand that any military help, even in the tens of billions of modern weapons, could lead to Russia's collapse. That's probably why it's being throttled. Russia's complete loss isn't really a goal for the west.
是的。令人驚訝的是，人們不明白，任何軍事援助，即使是數(shù)百億的現(xiàn)代武器，都可能導致俄羅斯的崩潰。這可能就是西方限制援助的原因。俄羅斯的徹底失敗并不是西方的真正目標。
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modern weapons could lead to Russia's collapse
“現(xiàn)代武器可能導致俄羅斯的崩潰”
看起來這是西方最新形式的犟嘴?！叭绻鞣较驗蹩颂m提供大量現(xiàn)代武器，他們就能戰(zhàn)勝這個亞洲的俄羅斯部落!”
美國人還能拿出什么? 艾布拉姆斯? 你肯定是在開玩笑，看看豹豹吧。F16戰(zhàn)斗機? 你肯定又在開玩笑。F35? 這可能會很有趣，但在整個計劃中仍然無足輕重。1000萬枚炮彈可能會有所不同，但西方?jīng)]有，而且短期內(nèi)也不會有。
This. "The West is just holding back" is the new cope. The reality is the West, even more so when you don't exclude the US can't compete with Russia. North Korea and Iran by themselves could unironically kick the Eu's butt to kingdom come
這一點?！拔鞣街皇鞘罩帧笔且环N新的犟嘴?，F(xiàn)實是，如果不算美國，西方就無法與俄羅斯競爭。毫無諷刺意味的是，朝鮮和伊朗自己就能把歐盟踢得屁滾尿流。
It's so damn silly to read
這些話太蠢了。
（評論被管理員刪除）
It wouldn't, but you are correct about it was never a welcomed prospects Russia might collapse.
不會的，但你是對的，俄羅斯可能崩潰的前景從來都不受歡迎。