話題討論：烏克蘭總司令扎盧日內(nèi)與總統(tǒng)澤連斯基鬧內(nèi)訌，并向美國(guó)獅子大開口，要求提供1700萬(wàn)枚炮彈，3500-4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員--part2

CenomX
Well, I think the only countries that can actually help with that kind of demand is Russia or North Korea.... HMM, ops.

嗯，我認(rèn)為唯一能真正幫助滿足這種需求的國(guó)家是俄羅斯或朝鮮……嗯，哎呀。

Doc-Bob-Gen8
Well, he didn’t exactly specify how he would like his 17 million shells delivered into the Ukraine or from where?

他并沒有具體說(shuō)明要怎么把那一千七百萬(wàn)枚炮彈運(yùn)到烏克蘭或者從哪里運(yùn)?

tapiove
I'm quite sure both would happily sell some shells to Ukraine. I wouldn't actually be surprised if it would be already happening to some extent. I bet quite a few pieces of equipment from both sides has already been traded; Ukrainians selling some western aid to Russian units and Russian units some ammo to Ukrainians.

我敢肯定，兩國(guó)都很樂意把炮彈賣給烏克蘭。如果它已經(jīng)在某種程度上發(fā)生了，我不會(huì)感到驚訝。我敢打賭，雙方已經(jīng)交換了不少裝備；烏克蘭人向俄羅斯單位出售一些西方援助，俄羅斯單位向?yàn)蹩颂m人出售一些彈藥。

ThatCaregiver392
17 million shells? There are no such shells in any country of this world. It's impossible, which means he's after the negotiation option, unlike Zelensky.

1700萬(wàn)發(fā)炮彈? 世界上任何一個(gè)國(guó)家都沒有這樣多炮彈。這是不可能的，也就是說(shuō)他想談判，不像澤連斯基。

aitorbk
China and India and probably the US do have those many shells.

中國(guó)和印度，可能還有美國(guó)，確實(shí)有這么多的炮彈。
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Up to a point, surprisingly also North Korea.

在某種程度上，令人驚訝的是朝鮮也是如此。

But none of them want to share them, except maybe North Korea up to a point, and the quality is.. variable, the opposite of what you want from a shell.

但他們都不想分享，除了朝鮮大概有點(diǎn)想，而且他們的質(zhì)量是……變量，會(huì)與你想要的炮彈相反。

KG_Jedi
Zaluzhny gotta be preparing an excuse to end the war, I think. There is no way he would ask for 350-400 billion USD on a serious note, as well as 17 million shells. He purposefully asks for impossible things, so that he can then throw hands into the air and say "Well, we didn't get what we asked, so we gotta give up". At least that's what it seems to me.

我想扎盧日內(nèi)一定在準(zhǔn)備借口以結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。他不可能要求3500 - 4000億美元和1700萬(wàn)枚炮彈。他故意提出不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的要求，這樣他就可以把手舉起來(lái)，說(shuō):“好吧，我們沒有得到我們要求的，所以我們必須放棄?！敝辽僭谖铱磥?lái)是這樣。

ChornyiLys
Zaluzhny gotta be preparing an excuse to end the war
He can't end the war now, because Russia wouldn't accept it. Even if Russia accepted that they can't achieve their maximalist goals in Ukraine, they still have to achieve their minimal goals (as of now) of capturing Donbass, and two additional oblasts that Russia included in their constitution, but still doesn't control. For Ukraine to end the war politically, as a bare minimum it would have to give up large territories that it still controls. Not going to happen any time soon.

他現(xiàn)在無(wú)法結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，因?yàn)槎韲?guó)不會(huì)接受。即使俄羅斯承認(rèn)他們無(wú)法在烏克蘭實(shí)現(xiàn)他們的最大目標(biāo)，他們?nèi)匀槐仨殞?shí)現(xiàn)他們的最小目標(biāo)(截至目前)，即占領(lǐng)頓巴斯，以及另外兩個(gè)俄羅斯納入其憲法但仍未控制的州。對(duì)于烏克蘭來(lái)說(shuō)，要想從政治上結(jié)束這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，它至少必須放棄仍在控制的大片領(lǐng)土。短期內(nèi)是不會(huì)發(fā)生的。

He purposefully asks for impossible things, so that he can then throw hands into the air and say "Well, we didn't get what we asked, so we gotta give up". At least that's what it seems to me.
Agree, except that by "giving up" he means maximalist goal of restoring the 1991 border, Ukraine is not going to give up on defensive war. That's essentially what he's alluding to, when he says: (if this is even a true leak, and not typical yellow press "insider information")

同意，除了他所說(shuō)的“放棄”是指恢復(fù)1991年邊界的最大目標(biāo)，烏克蘭不會(huì)放棄防御戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。當(dāng)他這樣說(shuō)時(shí)，這基本上就是他暗示的意思(如果這是真正的泄密，而不是典型的標(biāo)題黨媒體的“內(nèi)幕消息”)：
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to fulfil the task of the president to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine requires forces and means for US$350-400 billion."

要完成總統(tǒng)的任務(wù)，解放整個(gè)烏克蘭領(lǐng)土，需要3500億至4000億美元的力量和手段?！?/b>

some_thoughts
350-400 billion USD
and
17 million shells
Ukraine is fighting alone against Russia

3500-4000億美元，
以及
1700萬(wàn)發(fā)炮彈，
烏克蘭正在獨(dú)自對(duì)抗俄羅斯。

Suitable-Guava7813
Would say the 400b is too low. If NATO calculations showed that they should have breached the front and push 15km a day, the same would apply here.

要我說(shuō)4000億太少了。如果北約的計(jì)算表明他們應(yīng)該突破前線，每天推進(jìn)15公里，那么同樣的計(jì)算也適用于這里。

baxxos
I mean, at least he's upfront about the requirements. A couple of tanks here and there won't do anything meaningful.

我是說(shuō)，至少他對(duì)要求很坦率。這里那里散布的幾輛坦克不會(huì)帶來(lái)任何有意義的結(jié)果。

draw2discard2
No way to know at this point why he would make such a ridiculous request. Mind you, I think he has made ridiculous requests in the past that have been granted, such as he just needed to be given as many tanks as in the British Army and he could be in Crimea. Maybe he intentionally makes requests that are absurd enough that it will look like he is trying to win but he wants the request to be rejected so he doesn't have to send his men off to be slaughtered. Or the request is being made public in an attempt to damage him, idk.

到了這一刻，沒辦法知道他為什么會(huì)提出這樣一個(gè)荒謬的要求。請(qǐng)注意，我認(rèn)為他過去提出過一些荒謬的要求，而這些要求都被批準(zhǔn)了，比如他只需要得到和英國(guó)軍隊(duì)一樣多的坦克，他就可以打到克里米亞。也許他故意提出一些荒謬的要求，從而表現(xiàn)得想要贏得勝利，但他希望這個(gè)請(qǐng)求被拒絕，這樣他就不必讓他的人被屠殺了?；蛘哌@個(gè)請(qǐng)求是為了傷害他才被公開的。
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ScoMoTrudeauApricot
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was informed during a visit to Kyiv that Ukraine needed 17 million rounds of ammunition and that US$350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel would be required to liberate the country.

美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)勞埃德·奧斯汀在訪問基輔期間被告知，烏克蘭需要1700萬(wàn)發(fā)彈藥，解放這個(gè)國(guó)家需要價(jià)值3500 - 4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員。

GreenGreasyGreasels
This is basically signalling that recovery of 2014 or even 2022 borders is not possible any more.
Probably to pressure the president to negotiate?

這基本上表明，恢復(fù)2014年甚至2022年的邊界是不可能的了。
可能是為了迫使總統(tǒng)參與談判?

idf_bulldozer
US$350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel would be required to liberate the country.
most reasonable aid request

“解放這個(gè)國(guó)家需要3500 - 4000億美元的資產(chǎn)和人員?！?br /> 最合理的援助請(qǐng)求

marston82
They won’t be able to do it even if given all that money and resources. Only direct American military intervention can return Ukraine to its 2014 borders. And that is not happening.

即使把這些錢和資源都給他們，他們也做不到。只有美國(guó)的直接軍事干預(yù)才能讓烏克蘭回到2014年的邊界。但這并沒有發(fā)生。
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idf_bulldozer
well that sucks, looks like the ukraine is lost then

好吧，糟透了，看來(lái)烏克蘭輸了。

bolomk35
They're definitely not lost. They're just not going to retake much if any territory.

他們絕對(duì)沒有輸。他們只是不打算奪回太多領(lǐng)土。

marston82
I'd say it's better then being taken over completely by the Russians. Losing only 10% of it's territory and remaining an independent state is a victory in of itself. Before the invasion, pundits were saying the Russians were going to take over the entire country and install a puppet government in Kiev.

我想說(shuō)，這比完全被俄羅斯人占領(lǐng)要好。只失去10%的領(lǐng)土，保持一個(gè)獨(dú)立的國(guó)家本身就是一種勝利。在入侵之前，專家們說(shuō)俄羅斯人將占領(lǐng)整個(gè)國(guó)家，并在基輔扶植一個(gè)傀儡政府。

jorvis_nonof
If Putin had called a mobilisation at the time he launched the invasion, he could have achieved that, but he was too much of a political coward, afraid of the consequences of mobilisation (which turned out to be a nothingburger) to do what he needed to do when he needed to do it.

如果普京在發(fā)動(dòng)入侵時(shí)召集動(dòng)員，他本可以做到這一點(diǎn)，但他太像一個(gè)政治懦夫，害怕動(dòng)員的后果(結(jié)果毫無(wú)意義)，無(wú)法在需要的時(shí)候做他需要做的事情。

idf_bulldozer
what makes you think the russians want to freeze the war if western aid won't be forthcoming

如果西方援助不會(huì)到來(lái)，你認(rèn)為俄羅斯人為什么想要凍結(jié)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)？

bolomk35
Yes, we agree. I don't consider it strategically a loss for either the UKR or the west.

是的，我們同意。我不認(rèn)為這在戰(zhàn)略上是烏克蘭或西方的失敗。

freechagos
That's some huge numbers. Doubt it will happen

這些數(shù)字真大。懷疑不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。

WrongSalamander4217
How about no.

如果回答no，閣下又該如何應(yīng)對(duì)？

caseythedog345
how about yes :3

如果回答yes，閣下又該如何應(yīng)對(duì)？