UK state pension age will soon need to rise to 71, say experts
-Research on life expectancy and birthrates shows that ill health makes status quo unsustainable

專家表示，英國領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的法定年齡將很快需要提高到71歲
——對(duì)預(yù)期壽命和出生率的研究表明，健康狀況不佳使現(xiàn)狀難以為繼


(By age 70, only 50% of adults in England and Wales are now disability-free and able to work.)

（到70歲時(shí)，英格蘭和威爾士只有50%的成年人身體自由、能夠工作。）
新聞：

The retirement age will have to rise to 71 for middle-aged workers across the UK, according to research into the impact of growing life expectancy and falling birthrates on the state pension.

一項(xiàng)有關(guān)預(yù)期壽命延長(zhǎng)和出生率下降對(duì)國家養(yǎng)老金影響的研究顯示，英國各地中年工人的退休年齡將不得不提高到71歲。

The UK pension age of 66 is set to rise to 67 between May 2026 and March 2028. From 2044, it is expected to rise to 68.

在2026年5月至2028年3月期間，英國的退休年齡將從66歲提高到67歲。預(yù)計(jì)從2044年起，這一數(shù)字將升至68。

But the research suggests that this is not enough, and that anyone born after April 1970 may have to work until they are 71 before claiming their pension.

但研究表明，這還不夠，1970年4月以后出生的人可能要工作到71歲才能領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金。

This age limit may need to be set even higher, say experts, thanks to the high rate of workers exiting the workforce before they reach state pension age, predominantly due to preventable ill health.

專家表示，這個(gè)年齡限制可能需要設(shè)定得更高，因?yàn)樵谶_(dá)到法定領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金年齡之前退出勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的工人比例很高，這主要是由于可預(yù)防的疾病。

Les Mayhew, associate head of global research at the International Longevity Centre and author of the report State Pension Age and Demographic Change, said: “In the UK, state pension age would need to be 70 or 71 compared with 66 now, to maintain the status quo of the number of workers per state pensioner.

國際長(zhǎng)壽中心全球研究副主管、《國家養(yǎng)老金年齡和人口變化》報(bào)告的作者萊斯·梅休表示：“在英國，國家養(yǎng)老金年齡需要從現(xiàn)在的66歲提高到70歲或71歲，才能維持每個(gè)國家養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者對(duì)應(yīng)的工作人數(shù)的現(xiàn)狀。”

“But if you bring preventable ill health into the equation, that would have to increase even more,” added Mayhew, who is also professor of statistics at Bayes Business School and has advised the government on rises to the state pension age multiple times as a senior civil servant and in his current roles.

梅休補(bǔ)充道：“但如果你把可預(yù)防的疾病也考慮在內(nèi)，那就不得不提高更多?！泵沸菀彩秦惾~斯商學(xué)院的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)教授，在擔(dān)任高級(jí)公務(wù)員和現(xiàn)任職務(wù)期間，曾多次建議政府提高領(lǐng)取國家養(yǎng)老金的年齡。

By age 70, only 50% of adults in England and Wales are now disability-free and able to work. A smaller working population and a large economically inactive population reduces the tax base to pay for pensions – and creates huge labour shortages, which creates its own problems.

到70歲時(shí)，英格蘭和威爾士只有50%的成年人身體自由，能夠工作。勞動(dòng)人口減少和大量不從事經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的人口減少了支付養(yǎng)老金的稅基，并造成了巨大的勞動(dòng)力短缺，從而產(chǎn)生了自身的問題。

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, pensioner benefits will cost the UK government ￡136bn in 2023-24, of which ￡124bn will be spent on state pensions.

根據(jù)英國預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室的數(shù)據(jù)，2023- 2024年，養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者福利將花費(fèi)英國政府1360億英鎊，其中1240億英鎊將用于國家養(yǎng)老金。

Jonathan Cribb, associate director and head of retirement at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that while he did not disagree with a higher pension age, increasing it without addressing other cost-saving measures was not “realistic or equitable”.

英國財(cái)政研究所副主任兼退休問題負(fù)責(zé)人喬納森·克里布表示，盡管他不反對(duì)提高領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的年齡，但在不解決其他節(jié)省成本措施的情況下提高退休年齡，是“不現(xiàn)實(shí)或不公平的”。

He added: “It would disproportionately impact poorer individuals whose ill-health means they have shorter lives, and so who receive pensions for less time.”

他補(bǔ)充說：“這將不成比例地影響較貧窮的個(gè)人，他們的健康狀況不佳意味著他們的壽命較短，因此他們領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的時(shí)間也較短?！?/b>

While the ILC’s solution is “illustrative of the kind of pressure that an ageing population puts on the public finance”, a rise in the retirement age to 71 was not a “realistic policy option unless you have a real emergency”, he added.

他補(bǔ)充說，盡管國際長(zhǎng)壽中心的解決方案“說明了人口老齡化給公共財(cái)政帶來的壓力”，但將退休年齡提高到71歲并不是一個(gè)“現(xiàn)實(shí)的政策選擇，除非你面臨真正的緊急情況”。

Cribb pointed out that while state pensions and pension benefits are estimated to increase by ￡45bn by 2050, the pressure on public finance from health and social care is estimated to increase by ￡105bn in today’s terms over the same period. “The real issue is actually around the NHS and social care,” he said.

克里布指出，到2050年，國家養(yǎng)老金和養(yǎng)老金福利預(yù)計(jì)將增加450億英鎊，而同期來自衛(wèi)生和社會(huì)保健的公共財(cái)政壓力估計(jì)將以今天的價(jià)格水平增加1050億英鎊。他說：“真正的問題實(shí)際上是圍繞國家醫(yī)療體系和社會(huì)關(guān)懷的?！?/b>

The Intergenerational Foundation, an independent thinktank, agreed that the pension age had to rise, but questioned on whose shoulders that cost should fall.

獨(dú)立智庫“代際基金會(huì)”同意提高領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的年齡，但質(zhì)疑應(yīng)該由誰來承擔(dān)這一成本。
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Younger people, their research has found, do not have the financial assets that their parents and grandparents did. In 2010, those under 40 held ￡7.53 of every ￡100 of wealth. By 2020, that had fallen to ￡3.98. One-third of the UK’s 14 million Gen-Xers are at high risk of retiring on insufficient income.

他們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，年輕人不像他們的父母和祖父母那樣擁有金融資產(chǎn)。2010年，在每100英鎊的財(cái)富中，40歲以下的人持有7.53英鎊。到2020年，這一數(shù)字已降至3.98英鎊。在英國1400萬千禧一代中，有三分之一的人面臨著以收入不足狀態(tài)退休的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Angus Hanton, co-founder of the thinktank, said pension age should be based on life expectancy and occupation. He also supports a wealth tax to fund and pay more towards people’s retirement, and reducing income tax and national insurance.

該智庫的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人安格斯·漢頓表示，領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的年齡應(yīng)該基于預(yù)期壽命和職業(yè)。他還支持征收財(cái)富稅，為人們的退休提供更多資金和支付，并減少所得稅和國民保險(xiǎn)。

“The over-60s should finance their own extra retirement years since they have received such generous treatment from the state,” he said. “The money raised can be used to invest in improving the health and prospects of younger generations so they are less of an economic burden as they age.”

他說：“60歲以上的人應(yīng)該為自己的額外退休生活籌錢，因?yàn)樗麄儚膰业玫搅巳绱丝犊拇?。增加的資金可以用于投資改善年輕一代的健康和前景，這樣他們就不會(huì)隨著年齡的增長(zhǎng)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)?！?/b>

Andrew Scott, co-author of the 100-Year Life, whose new book, The Longevity Imperative, will be published shortly, said there needs to be a greater focus on preventing ill health not just in old age but from early age through adulthood.

《百歲人生》一書的合著者安德魯·斯科特的新書《長(zhǎng)壽的必要性》即將出版。他說，我們需要更加關(guān)注預(yù)防疾病，不僅是老年疾病，還包括從幼年到成年的疾病。

“Increasing the state pension age would be a terrible policy – a really bad way of attempting to make people more productive,” he said.

他說：“提高領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的年齡將是一項(xiàng)糟糕的政策——一種試圖提高人們生產(chǎn)力的糟糕方式?！?/b>

David Finch, assistant director at the Health Foundation, said increasing the state pension age without providing support for workers with health issues would worsen the situation by exacerbating existing health inequalities. “The government should provide more support for people already out of work due to health issues,” he said. “Employers can help by adapting roles and maintaining contact with employees on sick leave.”

健康基金會(huì)助理主任大衛(wèi)·芬奇表示，提高領(lǐng)取國家養(yǎng)老金的年齡，而不為有健康問題的工人提供支持，將加劇現(xiàn)有的健康不平等，從而使情況進(jìn)一步惡化。他說：“政府應(yīng)該為那些因健康問題而失業(yè)的人提供更多支持。雇主可以通過調(diào)整角色和與請(qǐng)病假的員工保持聯(lián)系來提供幫助?！?/b>
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The government said it would ensure that the state pension remained “a sustainable and fair foundation of income for future generations”.

政府表示，它將確保國家養(yǎng)老金仍然是“子孫后代可持續(xù)和公平的收入基礎(chǔ)”。

A spokesperson said: “We have committed ￡70m in employment and skills support for the over-50s, which has seen an extra 54,000 over-50s added to company payrolls. Our ￡2.5bn Back to Work plan is supporting people to stay fit and find work, in addition to ￡14.1bn to improve health services to help people live longer, healthier lives.”

一位發(fā)言人表示：“我們已經(jīng)承諾為50歲以上的人提供7000萬英鎊的就業(yè)和技能支持，這使得企業(yè)工資單新增了5.4萬名50歲以上的員工。我們25億英鎊的‘重返工作崗位’計(jì)劃將支持人們保持健康并找到工作，此外還有141億英鎊用于改善醫(yī)療服務(wù)，幫助人們活得更長(zhǎng)久、更健康?！?br />