QA問答：你贊成將棉蘭老島與菲律賓分離嗎？
https://www.quora.com/Are-you-in-favor-of-separating-Mindanao-from-the-Philippines
譯文簡介
首先，這是菲律賓的內(nèi)政。作為中國人，我們只是一個旁觀者，菲律賓內(nèi)政與我們無關(guān)。
正文翻譯
Are you in favor of separating Mindanao from the Philippines?
你贊成將棉蘭老島與菲律賓分離嗎？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
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First of all, this is the internal affairs of the Philippines. As a Chinese, we are just a bystander, and the internal affairs of the Philippines are none of our business.
The long-standing conflict of faith between Musli... and Christians in the Philippines is not recent, but long-standing.
In fact, the reason why the issue of Mindanao independence has become a hot topic in the news is mainly because of the huge conflict between Rodrigo Duterte and Bongbong Marcos over amending the constitution. Rodrigo Duterte said that if the constitution is not amended, Duterte will Support Mindanao independence.
首先，這是菲律賓的內(nèi)政。作為中國人，我們只是一個旁觀者，菲律賓內(nèi)政與我們無關(guān)。
菲律賓穆斯林和基督徒之間，存在著長期的信仰沖突，這不是最近才發(fā)生的，而是長期存在的。
事實上，棉蘭老島獨(dú)立問題之所以成為新聞熱點，主要是因為羅德里戈·杜特爾特和邦邦·馬科斯在修憲問題上發(fā)生了巨大沖突。羅德里戈·杜特爾特表示，如果不修改憲法，杜特爾特將支持棉蘭老島獨(dú)立。
Trump wanted to take back the presidency that belonged to him, and launched an armed riot when Biden first took office. Now, Trump is resentful of many of Biden's actions. He is using the Texas border wall to win support from red-neck forces in the United States and supports the independence of Texas to challenge the White House authorities. As Texas is supported by the state's National Guard, Trump will launch a military attack against Biden at any time.
然而，我認(rèn)為唐納德·特朗普想在美國發(fā)動內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的可能性比羅德里戈·杜特爾特想在菲律賓發(fā)動內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的可能大得多。
特朗普想奪回屬于他的總統(tǒng)職位，并在拜登剛上任時發(fā)動了武裝騷亂?，F(xiàn)在，特朗普對拜登的許多行為感到不滿。他正在利用得克薩斯州的邊境墻來贏得美國紅脖子們的支持，并支持得克薩斯州獨(dú)立以挑戰(zhàn)白宮當(dāng)局。由于得克薩斯州得到該州國民警衛(wèi)隊的支持，特朗普將隨時可以對拜登發(fā)動軍事攻擊。
Duterte does not have a regular combat force. If Duterte can get any military support, it is the rebels on Mindanao who have been fighting guerrilla warfare for a long time. However, the strength of these troops is very different from that of the Philippine military. Duterte will not armed conflict with the Manila authorities for the time being.
杜特爾特與馬科斯的沖突，是菲律賓的“菲律賓人民矛盾”階段，只是修憲引起的沖突。
杜特爾特沒有正規(guī)的作戰(zhàn)部隊。如果說杜特爾特能得到什么軍事支持，那就是棉蘭老島上長期打游擊戰(zhàn)的叛軍。然而，這些部隊的實力與菲律賓軍隊的實力差距太大。杜特爾特暫時不會與馬尼拉當(dāng)局發(fā)生武裝沖突。
Mindanao is Duterte's stronghold, and the independence movement here has a long history. The island has long had separatist activities, which itself has this foundation.
Late last year, a close ally of Duterte mentioned that if Bongbong Marcos still goes his own way on the South China Sea policy, he will push for an independence referendum in Mindanao to avoid being dragged down by the Marcos government.
Therefore, Duterte’s proposal of independence for Mindanao at this time was not a whim, but a decision made after careful consideration. He also appointed his ally Pantaleon Alvarez as the leader of the independence movement to lead Mindanao on the independent path to Singapore model.
Duterte said that his "independence plan" is not a rebellion or coup, and there will be no bloody incidents. It will follow the procedures set by the United Nations. The so-called compliance with the United Nations level should refer to confirming the will of local people by collecting signatures.
In other words, holding an independence referendum and letting the people decide whether to be independent.
當(dāng)然，這只是“暫時的”，后續(xù)的發(fā)展還有待觀察。
棉蘭老島是杜特爾特的大本營，這里的獨(dú)立運(yùn)動歷史悠久。該島長期以來一直有分離主義活動，這本身就有這個基礎(chǔ)。
去年年底，杜特爾特的一位親密盟友提到，如果邦邦·馬科斯在南海政策上仍我行我素，他將推動棉蘭老島舉行獨(dú)立公投，以避免被馬科斯政府拖垮。
因此，杜特爾特此時提出的棉蘭老島獨(dú)立并非一時興起，而是經(jīng)過深思熟慮后做出的決定。他還任命盟友潘塔萊恩·阿爾瓦雷斯為獨(dú)立運(yùn)動領(lǐng)袖，帶領(lǐng)棉蘭老島走上獨(dú)立的新加坡模式。
杜特爾特說，他的“獨(dú)立計劃”不是叛亂或政變，也不會發(fā)生流血事件。它將遵循聯(lián)合國制定的程序。所謂遵守聯(lián)合國程序，應(yīng)該是指通過收集簽名來確認(rèn)當(dāng)?shù)厝嗣竦囊庠浮?br /> 換言之，舉行獨(dú)立公投，讓人民決定是否獨(dú)立。
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Muslim presence in Mindanao probably predates christian by several centuries, Mindanao had their own sultanate before the Spanish came, while the northern part of Philippines are basically no man's land until the Spanish came and forced Christianity on everyone there.
穆斯林在棉蘭老島的存在，可能比基督教早了幾個世紀(jì)，棉蘭老島在西班牙人到來之前就有了自己的蘇丹國，而那時菲律賓北部基本上是無人區(qū)，直到西班牙人到來并將基督教強(qiáng)加給那里的每一個人。
Yes. This is a conflict with a long history.
是的。這是一場歷史悠久的沖突。
I think china should arm the Muslim rebels in the south this is the way to break. The country appart, Philippines is the only country that , 100% in support of american presence in southeast asia as they're the only christian majority in the region，no one in the region see them as an ally nor close to them politically or strategically.
As far as I'm concerned china doesn't see them as potential ally from the beginning knowing their history with the American, this was the reason why even duterted failed to attract significant amount of Chinese investment.
我認(rèn)為中國應(yīng)該武裝南方的穆斯林叛軍——這是打破僵局的方法。
菲律賓是唯一一個100%支持美國在東南亞存在的國家，因為他們是該地區(qū)唯一的基督徒占多數(shù)的國家，該地區(qū)沒有人將他們視為盟友，也沒有人在政治或戰(zhàn)略上與他們親近。
就我看來，中國從一開始就不認(rèn)為他們是潛在的盟友，因為他們了解自己與美國的歷史，這就是為什么即使是杜特爾特也未能吸引到大量中國投資的原因。
China has never interfered in the internal affairs of other countries.
But if Mindanao truly achieves independence and becomes an independent and sovereign country, the Chinese will definitely focus their investment on the friendly island of Mindanao and abandon other areas of the Philippines.
中國從不干涉別國內(nèi)政。
但如果棉蘭老島真正實現(xiàn)獨(dú)立，成為一個獨(dú)立的主權(quán)國家，中國人肯定會把投資重點放在友好的棉蘭老群島上，放棄菲律賓的其他地區(qū)。
MARCOS Jr. must walk his own BS for supporting Taiwan separatists.
Let him face his own separatists in own country.
China should show strong support for Mindanao self determination rights.
小馬科斯必須為支持臺灣分裂分子而嘗到自己廢話的苦果。
讓他在自己的國家面對自己的分離主義者。
中國應(yīng)大力支持棉蘭老島的自決權(quán)。
There is only one China. It’s called Republic of China.
只有一個中國。它被稱為“中華民國”。
FREE MINDANAO.??
解放棉蘭老島！
FREE VISAYAS as well.
也解放內(nèi)格羅斯島吧。
The Republic of Mindanao is the legitimate government of all Philippines and Marcos is the US puppet.
棉蘭老島共和國是整個菲律賓的合法政府，馬科斯是美國的傀儡。
Chinese AND RUSSIAN should build joint naval base and install missiles on Cuban soil.
And do joint “freedom of navigation” exercise at the gulf of Mexico.
中國和俄羅斯應(yīng)該在古巴領(lǐng)土上建立聯(lián)合海軍基地并安裝導(dǎo)彈。
并在墨西哥灣進(jìn)行聯(lián)合“航行自由”演習(xí)。
Why separate Mindanao from the Philippines? There may be some radical Muslim terrorists in a part of the island who advocate separarion, but they do not represent the entire Muslim community. Anyway, the island is majority Christian.
Would the island become self governing? If so, any divisions based on religion would still exist.
Could it join Indonesia? I am not sure the majority Chrisitans in Mindanao would be supportive.
So no, I do not support separating Mindanao from the Philippines. My husband is from Surigao del Sur and we presently live on Luzon. He has aunts and cousins living in Bohol, Cebu and Luzon, in addition to his extended family in Mindanao. They would not wish to be separated.
為什么要把棉蘭老島和菲律賓分開？島上的一部分地區(qū)可能有一些激進(jìn)的穆斯林恐怖分子主張分裂，但他們并不代表整個穆斯林社區(qū)。不管怎么說，這個島大部分都是基督徒。
讓這個島自治嗎？如果是這樣的話，任何基于宗教的分歧都將仍然存在。
讓這個島加入印尼嗎？我不確定棉蘭老島的大多數(shù)基督教徒是否會支持。
所以，不，我不支持將棉蘭老島與菲律賓分離。我丈夫來自南蘇里高，我們現(xiàn)在住在呂宋島。除了棉蘭老島的大家庭外，他還有住在波荷島、宿務(wù)島和呂宋島的姑姑和表兄弟。他們不希望分開。
It is not something about the Mindadao.
the point is, NO nation shall be presidented by a lapdog who obeys foreign spies for threats to freeze his secret foreign bank account, or to declassify his records on loli-island and "pizza shop".
Not for Philippines. Not for US.
這與棉蘭老島無關(guān)。
關(guān)鍵是，任何國家都不應(yīng)該由一個聽命于，一個會任由外國間諜威脅凍結(jié)其秘密外國銀行賬戶、或解密其在蘿莉島和“披薩店”記錄的走狗主持。
不適合菲律賓。也不適合美國。
Of course not! The person advocating for that must be arrested for treason. What a traitor. Am sure he will sell Mindanao to the highest bidder! He must face the consequences of his tokhang program. He said he was not afraid of the ICC. Why he is now quaking in his boots?
當(dāng)然不！主張這樣做的人必須以叛國罪被捕。這是個叛徒。我確信他會把棉蘭老島賣給出價最高的人！他必須面對其分離計劃的后果。他說他并不害怕國際刑事法院。為什么他現(xiàn)在在靴子里發(fā)抖？
It will never happen. The old Duterte talking is just an emotional impulse, a dissatisfaction of the recent event (call for signature campaign of ambitious politicians that knows they will never win in popular election if they run for president or higher office) and maybe a self preservation.
它永遠(yuǎn)不會發(fā)生。杜特爾特的舊言論只是一種情緒沖動，是對最近事件的不滿（呼吁雄心勃勃的政客進(jìn)行簽名運(yùn)動，他們知道如果想競選總統(tǒng)或更高職位，他們永遠(yuǎn)不會在普選中獲勝），也許也是一種自我保護(hù)。
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NO! Warlords in mindanao & throughout the country are restless & restive.
The Phil government/ marcos administration has opened the doors ro changes in the1987 constitution justifying the need to amend economic provisions that will provide the enabling environment to attract foreign investments.
This is an offshoot of the extensive foreign travels by then new Pres & his large entourage to attract investors to the country & the foreign commitments to materialize.
不！棉蘭老島和全國各地的軍閥都焦躁難安。
菲律賓政府/馬科斯政府為1987年憲法的修改打開了大門，證明有必要修改經(jīng)濟(jì)條款，為吸引外國投資提供有利的環(huán)境。
這是時任新總統(tǒng)及其龐大隨行人員為吸引投資者到該國進(jìn)行廣泛海外旅行的一個分支，也是實現(xiàn)外國承諾的一個途徑。
Aspirations of 1% elites oligarchs (political family dynasties, economic & military dynasties etc) that monopolize & control 80% of the country’s power & resources to entrench themselves in legitimate perpetual power thru: 1) a federal system of govt, 2) removing the limitations to tenure in elected public offices etc
CUrrently, are 2 major political family dynasties ( united under their so- called unity alliance) — known for their respective notoriety.
incumbent marcos that hold sway over vote- rich- luzon/ north & half of central Phil (thru cousins — the Romualdez clan)
former pres duterte & current vice- pres ( daughter) representing another vote rich mindanao/ south & half of central Phil (duterte paternal ancestry is from cebu — bisaya- speaking with other central phil islands also bisaya).
Currently, the families are positioning themselves/ allies/ regions for next presidential election ( 2028). -
但也有一些險惡的議程：
1%的精英寡頭（政治家族王朝、經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事王朝等）壟斷和控制國家80%的權(quán)力和資源，通過以下方式鞏固自己的合法永久權(quán)力：
1）聯(lián)邦政府制度
2）取消對民選公職任期的限制等
目前，有兩個主要的政治家族王朝（在他們所謂的統(tǒng)一聯(lián)盟下聯(lián)合）——以各自的惡名而聞名。
1、對選票豐富的呂宋有影響力的現(xiàn)任：馬科斯，他們控制北部和中部菲律賓的一半（通過表親聯(lián)合——羅穆爾德斯家族）
2、前總統(tǒng)杜特爾特和現(xiàn)任副總統(tǒng)（的女兒）代表另一個選票豐富的棉蘭老島，他們控制南部和中部菲爾島的一半。杜特爾特的祖先來自宿務(wù)，哪里屬于米沙鄢語支，中部菲爾島其他島嶼也說米沙鄢語。
目前，這些家庭正在為下一屆總統(tǒng)選舉（2028年）定位自己/盟友/地區(qū)。
And surprise! Unexpected entry of the ICC investigating the thousands of extrajudicial killings under duterte’ war on drugs strongly opposed by then duterte administration clan/ allies & following.
Should the ICC investigation turn out against duterte, this would keep him & his dynasty occupied, opening the path for the Romualdez family ( of the marcos dynasty) in upcoming 2028 president election
但野心、貪婪和權(quán)力是不可預(yù)測的。
還有驚喜！國際刑事法院意外介入，調(diào)查杜特爾特禁毒戰(zhàn)爭期間數(shù)千起法外處決事件，這遭到杜特爾特政府部族/盟友及追隨者的強(qiáng)烈反對。
如果國際刑事法院的調(diào)查結(jié)果是針對杜特爾特的，這將使他和他的王朝將繼續(xù)被占領(lǐng)，為即將到來的2028年總統(tǒng)選舉中的羅穆爾德斯家族（馬科斯王朝）開辟道路。
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The manila- centric government/ imperial manila — republican presidental form of government indeed is the aggravation to the underdevelopment of the rest of the 16 regions of the country vis- a vis the national capital region/metro manila.
Should mindanao secede from the country, it will remain as poor despite it endowed with natural resources, as the same political tyrants ( like the other regions) will become the supreme rulers.
預(yù)計到會產(chǎn)生不利影響，前總統(tǒng)杜特爾特現(xiàn)在呼吁保護(hù)南部/棉蘭老島等菲律賓群島，以先發(fā)制人。
以馬尼拉為中心的政府/帝國，馬尼拉共和國總統(tǒng)制政府，確實加劇了該國16個地區(qū)中其他地區(qū)相對于國家首都地區(qū)/大都會馬尼拉的不發(fā)達(dá)。
如果棉蘭老島脫離這個國家，盡管它擁有自然資源，但它將仍然貧窮，因為同樣的政治暴君（像其他地區(qū)一樣）將成為最高統(tǒng)治者。
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In such eventuality, a Phil ( minus mindana) ruled by the Marcos politicsl dynasty & an independent new state mindabao ruled by the Duterte political dynasty.
Which outcome? It depends where the Phil military goes consistent with western influence.
杜特爾特呼吁的棉蘭老島分裂只會使杜特爾特政治王朝和已經(jīng)掌權(quán)的盟友受益。
在這種情況下，一個由馬科斯政治王朝統(tǒng)治的菲律賓（減去棉蘭老島）& 一個由杜特爾特政治王朝代統(tǒng)治的獨(dú)立的新國家棉蘭老島。
哪種結(jié)果？這取決于菲律賓軍隊與西方勢力的一致性。