歐盟圈討論：如果歐洲和俄羅斯開戰(zhàn)，各國(guó)的具體戰(zhàn)況可能會(huì)怎樣？
How can you imagine your country's war against russia?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
（克羅地亞）鑒于地理因素，你們很可能被迫在喀爾巴阡山脈、巴爾干半島的某個(gè)地方面對(duì)俄羅斯人，如果戰(zhàn)局不利，則會(huì)在阿爾卑斯山北麓面對(duì)俄羅斯人。
正文翻譯
Considering what you now see on the battlefield, your technologies, mobilization reserve and everything else. Some countries are small, but we are talking not only about victory, but in general how it will all be.
考慮你們現(xiàn)在看到的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)情況、你們的技術(shù)、動(dòng)員、預(yù)備役和其他一切因素。有些國(guó)家很小，但我們談?wù)摰牟粌H是勝敗，而是總體上的局勢(shì)發(fā)展。
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In a UK Vs Russia fight, it all depends on one thing: If the nukes are launched. It's Armageddon if they are. If it is strictly confined to conventional, then you would see the typical British response to any war. Go in overconfident and underfunded, win either a flashy victory or defeat, and then the military will finally get funded when things are already past the peak level of conflict, allowing the Brits to win at the negotiating table, and tiding over the military and the destruction of their funding once again until the next war.
（英）在一場(chǎng)英國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中，一切都取決于一件事：是否發(fā)射核彈。如果發(fā)射了，那就會(huì)是末日大決戰(zhàn)。如果僅限于常規(guī)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，那你看到的就會(huì)是英國(guó)對(duì)任何戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的典型反應(yīng)。在過度自信、資金不足的情況下參戰(zhàn)，要么贏得一場(chǎng)華麗的勝利，要么戰(zhàn)敗，然后當(dāng)局面已經(jīng)超過了沖突的高峰時(shí)，軍方最終將獲得撥款，從而讓英國(guó)人在談判桌上獲勝，讓軍方渡過難關(guān)，并再次把撥款搞黃，直到下一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)來臨。
↘希望諾蘭導(dǎo)演能在有生之年把它拍成電影
↘（芬）確實(shí)，不過如果我讀到的“英國(guó)為全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)準(zhǔn)備的彈藥只夠維持一星期”的說法是正確的，那英國(guó)就必須加大力度了。你是可以掌握一切你想要的主場(chǎng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，但沒有補(bǔ)給你也還是會(huì)輸。
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↘（愛爾蘭）烏克蘭在入侵前擁有全世界第14大軍隊(duì)，說成“三流軍隊(duì)”也太夸張了，絕不要低估你的敵人。歐洲就是輕敵才淪落到這步田地的，烏克蘭之所以能生存下來，就是因?yàn)樗麄儧]有這樣做。
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UK military is now soft due to downsizing, Putin knows this and the only deterrent UK now has is nuclear.
Macron understands this and this is why he's talking the way he does.
Germany finally understands what can happen but has no balls.
I live in Ireland we have no weapons.
如今的英國(guó)軍隊(duì)因?yàn)榫?jiǎn)而變得很弱，普京明白這一點(diǎn)，英國(guó)現(xiàn)在唯一的威懾力量就是核武器。
馬克龍明白這一點(diǎn)，所以他才會(huì)以那樣的口氣說話。
德國(guó)終于明白了會(huì)發(fā)生什么，但卻沒有膽魄。
我住在愛爾蘭，我們沒有武器。
I'm currently doing military service so not a day goes by without me imagining it.
But i have every confidence that we would come out of it on top, even without complete support from our NATO allies. We have spent the last 80 years preparing for that war, and that has not gone to waste. We have enough bunkers for every civilian in Finland, extensive preparation on how to convert the civilian industry for wartime production, plans to blow up every damn railroad and bridge the Russians could use.
（芬）我正服著兵役，所以我沒有一天不在想象這件事。但我堅(jiān)信，就算沒有北約盟國(guó)的全力支持，我們也會(huì)笑到最后。在過去的八十年里，我們一直在為這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)做準(zhǔn)備，而這一切都沒有白費(fèi)。我們?yōu)榉姨m的所有平民準(zhǔn)備了足夠的掩體，為民用工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)為戰(zhàn)時(shí)生產(chǎn)做了大量的準(zhǔn)備，還制定了炸毀可能被俄羅斯人利用的每一條鐵路和橋梁的計(jì)劃。
更讓我堅(jiān)信這一點(diǎn)的是俄羅斯在烏克蘭令人發(fā)笑的表現(xiàn)，烏克蘭可是一支進(jìn)攻部隊(duì)所能期望的最完美的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)了。相比之下，芬蘭人煙稀少，遍布著無法穿越的密林。任何先頭部隊(duì)將被迫依賴少數(shù)幾條道路之一，而我可以保證，我們很擅長(zhǎng)阻斷這些道路。芬蘭仍然實(shí)行義務(wù)兵役制，這意味著我們能派出一支大約30萬人的軍隊(duì)和大約90萬人的預(yù)備隊(duì)。這就足以匹敵俄羅斯期望的對(duì)芬攻勢(shì)了。無論他們的人數(shù)有多可怕，我們都能應(yīng)付。當(dāng)我們手握10萬件反坦克武器和10萬枚反坦克地雷時(shí)，1萬輛坦克就啥也不是了。更不用說俄羅斯軍隊(duì)毫不掩飾的腐敗和無能了。
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在過去八十年里，芬蘭之所以沒有被俄羅斯入侵，唯一原因就是芬蘭已經(jīng)展示了自己的能力，以及在必要時(shí)與俄羅斯纏斗的意愿。我們是一個(gè)執(zhí)拗的民族，就讓我們管好自己的事情吧，這符合俄羅斯的利益。芬蘭人可不會(huì)認(rèn)為獨(dú)立是理所當(dāng)然的，我們?cè)敢鉃楹葱l(wèi)獨(dú)立而犧牲。
You get a chance to flip a coin, if it's heads, you get 10 000 dollars, but both of your legs are cut off and your nose is broken. If it's tails, the same happens but you get no money. So why the hell would you flip the coin? That is the equivalent of Russia choosing to invade Finland. It's in their best interest to do nothing.
總而言之，85年前我們已經(jīng)證明了我們可以堅(jiān)守自己的立場(chǎng)與他們抗衡，而且無論你怎么看，自那以后，局勢(shì)的發(fā)展絕對(duì)是對(duì)我們有利的。
如你有機(jī)會(huì)拋硬幣，如果正面朝上，你會(huì)得到1萬美元，但你的雙腿會(huì)被砍掉，鼻子會(huì)被打斷。如果反面朝上，情況也一樣，但你1分錢也得不到。那你究竟為什么還要拋硬幣？俄羅斯選擇入侵芬蘭也遵循此理。什么都不做對(duì)他們最有利。
↘（芬）我最近看到的大部分鄉(xiāng)間道路路況都很糟糕，根本無法支撐坦克。也許，正是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)原因它們才沒有得到維護(hù)？
There are two ways it will go down. Either NATO jumps in and kicks ass, 50/50 chance to end in nuclear winter, or we go alone, give the Russians a bloody nose and ebentually get completely occupied.
（芬）發(fā)展下去會(huì)有兩種結(jié)果。要么北約入局痛擊俄羅斯，這樣會(huì)有一半的幾率以核冬天收?qǐng)觯灰次覀児萝妸^戰(zhàn)，打得俄羅斯人口鼻流血，但最終會(huì)被徹底占領(lǐng)。
I imagine a lot of Russians dying in the Alps or at sea. Italy doesn't have the most powerful army, but our navy is nothing to scoff at and our terrain advantage is literally the tallest on the continent.
在我的想象中，會(huì)有很多俄羅斯人死在阿爾卑斯山或海上。意大利沒有最強(qiáng)的陸軍，但我們的海軍不容小覷，我們的地形優(yōu)勢(shì)在歐洲大陸上確實(shí)是最大的。
↘（意）蠢材。意大利海軍不合格，裝備也不足。他們的艦艇只攜帶最低限度的彈藥。
As Serbian, here is what will happen:
like 30% will welcome occupiers, celebrating “freedom from the western chains”. Most likely, at least half of them will start to complain within month and end up shoot.
30% pro-Westerners will mostly like flee to the West complaining how they barely escaped the death.
the rest of the population will continue to with their life, contributing nothing to either side.
作為塞爾維亞人，以下是將會(huì)發(fā)生的事情：
約30%的人會(huì)歡迎占領(lǐng)軍，并慶祝“擺脫了西方的枷鎖”。最有可能的是，他們中至少有一半人會(huì)在一個(gè)月內(nèi)開始抱怨，最終被槍斃。
30%的親西方者大部分都會(huì)逃往西方，并抱怨自己差一點(diǎn)就沒命了。
剩下的人會(huì)繼續(xù)過生活，無助于任何一方。
The fear of Russians invading is kind of funny at this point because it’s on everyone’s mind.
Whenever a bomb like noise happens, or military airplanes go by everyone immediately goes to “the Russians are coming”. Had a bombing near me recently that was related to gang violence but when it happened everyone woke up thinking it’s the Russians.
（瑞典）在這個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)上，對(duì)俄羅斯人入侵的恐懼有點(diǎn)可笑了，因?yàn)槊總€(gè)人都會(huì)思慮此事。
每當(dāng)發(fā)生類似炸彈爆炸的聲音，或有軍機(jī)飛過時(shí)，每個(gè)人都會(huì)立刻聯(lián)想到“俄羅斯人打過來了”。最近在我附近就發(fā)生了一起與幫派暴力有關(guān)的炸彈爆炸事件，但是當(dāng)事件發(fā)生時(shí)，所有人的意識(shí)里都認(rèn)為是俄羅斯人干的。
I'm Belarusian, and yes, we used to fight against Russia back in the days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the uprisings afterwards. In the modern era, though, a war between Belarus and Russia is well-nigh impossible. If it were to happen, Lukashenka is on record as saying that Belarusians would fight more desperately than the Chechens had, but I think in reality most of us would collaborate, surrender or flee to Europe or Turkey.
我是白俄羅斯人，是的，在波蘭-立陶宛聯(lián)邦時(shí)期以及之后的起義中，我們?cè)c俄羅斯作戰(zhàn)。但在現(xiàn)代，白俄羅斯和俄羅斯之間幾乎不可能發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。如果真的發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，盧卡申科曾公開表示，白俄羅斯人會(huì)比車臣人更死命戰(zhàn)斗，但我認(rèn)為實(shí)際情況會(huì)是，我們大多數(shù)人會(huì)合作、投降或逃往歐洲/土耳其。
I do not need imagine anymore. We probably already know how war will look like. One difference is the EU/NATO has much more toys than Ukraine. But we know how important is artillery, reconnaissance, anti-aircraft defence and sucide drones. Russia does not have powerful navy, with Sweden in NATO Kalinigrad is no more such a big headache and so on. Tanks and armoured vehicles are still important though no break trought front is possible and producing big numebrs is just too expensive so we do not need them that much.
（波）我不需要再想象了。我們可能已經(jīng)知道戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)是什么樣子。不同的是，歐盟/北約的玩具比烏克蘭多得多。但我們很清楚火炮、偵察、防空和自殺式無人機(jī)的重要性。俄羅斯沒有強(qiáng)大的海軍，瑞典加入北約后，加里尼格勒不再是令人頭疼的問題了，諸如此類。坦克和裝甲車仍然重要，但不可能突破戰(zhàn)線，而且大量生產(chǎn)坦克和裝甲車的成本太高了，因此我們沒那么需要它們。
↘（波）沒有人談?wù)撨^這個(gè)問題。好像還是離我們很遙遠(yuǎn)，烏克蘭雖大，但已經(jīng)有人在我們的土地上喪生了，一些火箭彈也落在了我們的領(lǐng)土上?；謴?fù)義務(wù)兵役制非常不得人心，而我生活在這個(gè)國(guó)家的西部。我想這就是瑞典或法國(guó)在1940年以前對(duì)二戰(zhàn)的觀感。
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↘（波）作為一個(gè)西方人，我背負(fù)著巨大的代際創(chuàng)傷，我們會(huì)被拋棄，波蘭將為東方而戰(zhàn)。
我那位于西部的家鄉(xiāng)幾乎沒有軍事基地，所有東西都被拆得七零八落。貌似政府很認(rèn)真地想為西方而戰(zhàn)，也想把戰(zhàn)線設(shè)置在維斯瓦河上。我可以戰(zhàn)斗，但我可不能像鮮活的肉盾那樣阻止俄羅斯人殺到富裕的華沙或弗羅茨瓦夫。
↘（波）如今，我們是西方體系不可分割的一部分。這不同于三十年代的情況，而且放棄我們會(huì)付出高昂的代價(jià)。
We will repeat the civil war again as we're so polarised that it scares anyone with some sense. It's easy for Russia to tense everything and make it explode.
（西）我們將重燃內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)槲覀兊膬蓸O分化太嚴(yán)重了，任何有理智的人都會(huì)感到害怕。俄羅斯很容易就能緊張化局勢(shì)，并坐等我們內(nèi)爆。
↘（巴斯克人）“我堅(jiān)信，西班牙是世界上最強(qiáng)大的國(guó)家。連續(xù)數(shù)百年一直試圖毀滅自己，但仍然沒有成功”—— 奧托·馮·俾斯麥
It depends, with the aid that Ukraine is getting we would probably have won, our logistics are good, we have lots of influence across the globe, we have far better weapons and equipment. Given the geography we would just sink there ships with our more up to date navy however in Ukraines position where there is a land border we would struggle and would have to adapt. Alone and on a land war it would be a struggle but we could wreak Russia too. We might not have the resources but we would be able to do considerable damage and shut there army down. We might eventually run out of resources but it would be a favourable war for us at least in the short term. We could probably force a good peace. Also we have nukes so that would be a last resort.
（法）這要看情況，有了烏克蘭正在接收的那批援助，我們很可能已經(jīng)贏了，我們的后勤很棒，我們?cè)谌蛴泻艽蟮挠绊懥Γ覀兊奈淦餮b備遠(yuǎn)勝他們。鑒于地理因素，我們可以直接用更現(xiàn)代的海軍擊沉他們的戰(zhàn)艦，但在緊挨陸地邊界的烏克蘭陣地上，我們將會(huì)陷入困境，不得不作出調(diào)整以適應(yīng)實(shí)際情況。在陸戰(zhàn)中，單靠我們自己會(huì)很吃力，但我們也能重傷俄羅斯。也許我們沒有足夠的資源，但我們有能力造成相當(dāng)大的破壞，并癱瘓其軍隊(duì)。最終我們可能會(huì)耗盡資源，但至少在短期內(nèi)，這會(huì)是一場(chǎng)對(duì)我們有利的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。或許我們可以迫使他們言和。此外，我們還有核武器，這將是最后的手段。
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↘（克羅地亞）鑒于地理因素，你們很可能被迫在喀爾巴阡山脈、巴爾干半島的某個(gè)地方面對(duì)俄羅斯人，如果戰(zhàn)局不利，則會(huì)在阿爾卑斯山北麓面對(duì)俄羅斯人。
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↘法國(guó)的炸彈不是在三天內(nèi)就會(huì)用完嗎？
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We are doing some serious modernization but it still takes time, so if we were at war against Russia today, we would be fucked in less than a week! That’s my honest guess, it is what it is!
（匈）我們正在認(rèn)真推進(jìn)現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程，但仍需要時(shí)間，因此，如果今天我們與俄羅斯開戰(zhàn)，不出一周就會(huì)完蛋！這是我真心的猜測(cè)，事實(shí)就是如此！
I live within walking distance from russia (Vilnius), so it's likely that we would get shelled with conventional artillery. Main army bases are a bit further away but not too far, so the response would be fast and decisive. We have top notch NATO-grade weapons and enough motivated soldiers, the attack wouldn't go far.
Belarus is monitored constantly by planes and satellites, so russia wouldn't be able to gather many troops without notice. We'd know about their plans well before they tried anything, but we can't fire the first shot.
（立陶宛）我住的地方（維爾紐斯）走不多遠(yuǎn)就能到俄羅斯了，所以我們很可能會(huì)遭到常規(guī)炮擊。陸軍的主基地離我們稍遠(yuǎn)一些，但也不算太遠(yuǎn)，所以我們的反擊會(huì)迅速而果斷。我們擁有一流的北約級(jí)武器和足夠多戰(zhàn)心高昂的士兵，俄羅斯的攻擊不會(huì)取得大成功。
飛機(jī)和衛(wèi)星一刻不停地監(jiān)視著白俄羅斯，因此俄羅斯不可能在毫無察覺的情況下集結(jié)大量軍隊(duì)。在他們采取任何行動(dòng)之前，我們就知道他們的計(jì)劃了，但我們不能先開第一槍。
Considering there’s a big chance of it becoming a nuclear war, I shall send everyone my best wishes from either Chile or New Zealand.
（羅馬尼亞）鑒于釀成核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的可能性非常大，我將從智利或是新西蘭向大家致以最美好的祝愿。