SE問答:為什么中國認為資本管制是獨立、主權貨幣政策的必要條件?
Why does China consider capital control necessary for an independent, sovereign monetary policy?譯文簡介
金融政策
正文翻譯
評論翻譯
很贊 ( 26 )
收藏
Even though China appears keen to upset the global dominance of the US, it only wants to do so on Beijing's terms, says Rory Green, the chief China economist at London-based consultancy TS Lombard.
The People's Bank of China has moved cautiously over the past decade to promote greater use of yuan without disrupting financial security and it's unlikely to upset that dynamic now, Green wrote in a note on April 28.
This stability is maintained through the use of capital controls — a grip on how much foreign money can move in and out of China's economy, which in turn influences the foreign currency exchange rate.
Beijing's policy has typically leaned toward having such controls, as it considers them prerequisites for an independent, sovereign monetary policy, wrote Green.
倫敦咨詢公司TS Lombard首席中國經濟學家羅里格林表示,雖然中國似乎熱衷于顛覆美國的全球主導地位,但它只想按照北京方面的條件行事。
格林在4月28日的一份報告中寫道:過去十年,中國人民銀行在不破壞金融安全的情況下,謹慎地推動人民幣的更大范圍使用,現在不太可能打破這種動態(tài)。
人民幣的這種穩(wěn)定性是通過資本管制來維持的,資本管制是指控制有多少外國資金可以流入和流出中國經濟,進而影響外匯匯率。
格林還表示,北京的政策通常傾向于進行這種控制,因為中國認為這是獨立、主權貨幣政策的先決條件。
Rather than pushing for the yuan to become the dominant global reserve currency, Beijing is likely to pursue its sphere of currency influence among countries it trades with actively. It's likely to focus on breaking up US dollar dominance in parts of the world instead, Green told Insider.
But there could be some wiggle room on Beijing's position.
"There's always been the option in China to change capital controls. Except, for Beijing, the question has been whether the global environment would support this — are there enough nations who will adopt yuan?" Abishur Prakash, the CEO of The Geopolitical Business, a Toronto-based advisory firm, told Insider.
"Today, the answer is yes, as many nations have already signed on to using yuan, giving China the signal it needs to change gears," he added.
由于這些控制,“北京永遠無法完全放開金融賬戶,但它仍然可以追求人民幣國際化,”格林補充道,他指的元的官方名稱是人民幣。
北京不會推動人民幣成為占主導地位的全球儲備貨幣,而是可能在與中國有積極貿易往來的國家中追求其貨幣影響范圍。所以,中國可能會專注于打破美元在世界部分地區(qū)的主導地位,格林告訴Insider。
但北京的立場可能還有一些回旋余地。
“中國一直有改變資本管制的嘗試。除此之外,對于北京來說,問題是全球環(huán)境是否會支持這一點——是否有足夠多的國家將采用人民幣?”總部位于多倫多的咨詢公司,地緣政治商業(yè)的首席執(zhí)行官阿比舒爾·普拉卡什告訴Insider(《內幕報》)。
隨后他又補充:“今天,答案是肯定的,因為許多國家已經同意使用人民幣,這給了中國需要改變的信號?!?/b>
因為上面的報道,我很好奇,為什么中國認為資本管制是獨立、主權貨幣政策的必要條件?美國是否也認為資本管制是獨立和主權貨幣政策的必要條件?因為我認為美國并不這么認為,因為他們在實施貨幣政策時大多或只考慮自己的經濟。在這一點上,我可能是錯誤的,但過去的某些貨幣政策對某些國家產生了負面影響,據我所知,美國央行必須首先為美國公眾利益服務。中美兩國這種觀點上的差異有什么原因嗎?
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.top-shui.cn 轉載請注明出處
Could you elaborate on the forms of capital control they use? Foreign investment limits? Controlled exchange rates? Earnings repatriation limits? Those may have different aims, as well as different ideological underpinnings. Also, they are experiencing some economic upheavals right now, so expect liberalization to proceed slowly, unless it is seen as a solution to those issues. And... "liberalization" rarely seems to be the answer to anything in China.
你能詳細說明他們使用的資本控制形式嗎?外國投資限額?受控匯率?收入匯回限額?這些可能都有不同的目標,以及不同的意識形態(tài)基礎。此外,中國正在經歷一些經濟動蕩,所以預計自由化將緩慢進行,除非自由化金融被中國視為這些問題的解決方案。不過……在中國,“自由化”似乎很少能解決任何問題。
This question accepts the statement as factual, but it's not an official statement by Chinese authorities, just an opinion of some analytics.
這個問題本身就已經認為中國認為資本管制是獨立、主權貨幣政策的必要條件實,但這不是中國的官方聲明,只是一些分析的意見。
I don't doubt China is keen to upset the dominance of the US. I do wonder how and why China might want to do that on anything other than Beijing's terms. Isn't the main point that China wants the world run on Beijing's terms? Who cares, why not compare China today to the early years of Britain's Honourable East India Company?
我不懷疑中國渴望顛覆美國在金融上的主導地位。我真的很想知道,除了北京的條件之外,中國會如何以及為什么想要這樣做。主要的一點不就是中國希望世界按照北京的條件運行嗎?但誰在乎呢?為什么不把今天的中國與英國尊貴的東印度公司的早期相比呢?
You're asking a lot of questions in the last para. I'm not sure which is the real one. The title Q is trivial: China officially still sees itself on the path to Com...ism (and with a good dose of nationalism added). Giving Western liberal (in the economic sense) capitalists too much power over the Chinese economy is clearly not in the Chinese leadership's plan [to their version of Com...ism].
你在最后一段問了很多問題。我不確定哪個是真的。標題的問題微不足道:中國官方仍然認為自己走在通往共產主義的道路上(并加入了大量的民族主義)。給西方自由(經濟意義上的)資本家太多權力來控制中國經濟,顯然不在中國領導層的計劃中(對他們的共產主義版本來說)。
The issue is not just that capital controls are necessary for sovereign monetary policy, but that border controls on the movement of all economic factors are necessary to impose a sovereign economic policy upon a market.
I should add as well that the presence of actual restrictions are not always necessary for control. The mere willingness of the state to impose restrictions is capable of exerting control on certain kinds of activity.
China has always had a policy of state supervision of the economy. It also has a policy of building industrial capacity, maximum national self-sufficiency, and maximum completeness of supply chains.
Control of currency exchange rates and capital movements are merely one facet of this general approach.
問題不僅在于資本管制是主權貨幣政策的必要條件,還在于對所有經濟要素流動的邊境管制,是將主權經濟政策強加于市場的必要條件。
我還應該補充一點,實際限制的存在并不總是控制所必需的。但只要是國家施加限制的意愿,就必定能夠對某些類型的活動施加控制。
中國一直實行國家監(jiān)管經濟的政策,他們還有一項建設工業(yè)能力、最大限度實現國家自給自足和最大限度完善供應鏈的政策。
對貨幣匯率和資本流動的控制,只是這個總方針里面的一個方面。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.top-shui.cn 轉載請注明出處
Coincidentally, or perhaps not so much, the 70s are the era during which Western economies began to deindustrialise and workers began to suffer. Essentially, the lifting of economic controls allowed Western capitalists to relocate production to places like China, which at the time were low-wage.
The UK lifted capital controls in 1979, and (due to this, and possibly other economic liberalisations) thereafter followed an immediate collapse in industrial capacity and economic activity, as well as a deep recession in 1981 which is still unmatched in severity by any recession since WW2.
China maintains the controls which the West abandoned, precisely so as not to suffer the same fate and economic weakening, and to ensure that the benefit it gained as a low-wage economy in the past, is retained as it moves into being a higher-wage, more powerful economy.
而且美國也確實曾經有過資本和貨幣管制。國家管控是二戰(zhàn)后資本主義世界“布雷頓森林”國家經濟管理體系的一部分。這個體系在1971年崩潰,當時美國取消了美元的“金本位制”(即終止了美元可以兌換固定數量黃金的承諾)。
巧合的是,也可能沒那么巧,70年代是西方經濟體開始去工業(yè)化、工人開始受苦的時期。從本質上講,經濟控制的解除使得西方資本家可以將生產轉移到像中國這樣的地方,而這些地方在當時是低工資的環(huán)境。
英國隨后在1979年取消了資本管制,此后(由于這一點,可能還有其他經濟自由化),工業(yè)產能和經濟活動立即崩潰,1981年出現嚴重衰退,其嚴重程度至今仍是二戰(zhàn)以來任何一次衰退都無法比擬的。
中國保留了西方放棄的控制,正是為了不遭受同樣的命運和經濟削弱,并確保在成為更高工資、更強大的經濟體時,保留過去作為低工資經濟體獲得的利益。
This is simply an example of the well-known "impossible trinity or trilemma" from (international) economics.
Simple short version:
You can only pick two of these three:
Fixed exchange rate.
Free capital flows.
Freedom to set your own interest rates.
3 is sometimes referred to as "sovereign/independent monetary policy". But in my opinion, the word "sovereign" is a bit grand and overblown. (It's a bit like if we called a country's decision to use a particular voltage its "sovereign, independent electricity policy".) The use of the word "sovereign" (which usually has grander connotations) results in confusion such as here with OP and the other answers. All that's meant here is the freedom to set your own interest rates.
Most rich countries (including the US) choose 2 and 3 (and so give up on 1).
China chooses 1 and 3 (and so gives up on 2).
Singapore and Hong Kong choose 1 and 2 (and so give up on 3).
這只是(國際)經濟學中眾所周知的“不可能的三位一體或三難困境”的一個例子。
簡單的簡短版本:
你只能選擇這三個中的兩個:
固定匯率。
資本自由流動。
自由設定自己的利率。
3有時被稱為“主權/獨立貨幣政策”。但在我看來,“主權”這個詞有點宏大,有些言過其實。(這有點像我們把一個國家使用特定電壓的決定稱為其“主權、獨立的電力政策”。)使用“主權”一詞(通常具有更大的含義)會導致混淆,例如這里的例子和其他答案。這里的意思是你可以自由設定自己的利率。
大多數富裕國家(包括美國)選擇2和3(因此放棄1)。
中國選擇1和3(因此放棄了2)。
新加坡和香港(特區(qū))選擇1和2(因此放棄3)。
Monetary policy means the amount of money in the system, which is set by interest rates (at least in the US system). Free control of interest rates is free control of the amount of money which is free monetary policy.
貨幣政策是指體系內的貨幣量,由利率決定(至少在美國體系內)。自由控制利率就是自由控制貨幣數量,這是自由的貨幣政策。
Monetary policy means the amount of money in the system I would instead say that monetary policy is about how easy and cheap it is to borrow (and lend) money. Today, most countries (either explicitly or implicitly) use an inflation-targeting system. And, to achieve their inflation targets, they control interest rates. // Targeting and controlling the "amount of money" was tried in the 1980s (and advocated by Milton Friedman and his monetarist followers) but widely abandoned since 1990, because the "amount of money" is not easy to define, measure, or control.
一般的貨幣政策操控的都是系統中的貨幣數量。不過我一般會說,貨幣政策是關于借錢(和借錢)的容易程度和成本。如今,大多數國家(或明或暗)都使用通脹目標制。為了實現通脹目標,他們控制利率。以“貨幣數量”為目標并加以控制的做法在20世紀80年代曾被嘗試過(并得到了米爾頓·弗里德曼及其貨幣主義追隨者的支持),但自1990年以來被廣泛拋棄,因為“貨幣數量”并不容易定義、衡量或控制。
I wouldn't. That's just how western countries choose to control the amount of money in the system.
我不同意。因為西方國家就是這樣選擇控制系統內的貨幣量的。
"Free control of interest rates" in the sense that if you set them too high or too low you'll tank the economy, even if there were no international capital flows. –
“自由控制利率”的意思是,如果你把利率定得太高或太低,你會搞垮經濟,即使沒有國際資本流動。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.top-shui.cn 轉載請注明出處
Question:
Why does China consider capital control necessary for an independent, sovereign monetary policy?
Short Answer:
Because it keeps their exports cheaper in foreign markets. They control capital to suppress the value of the yuan to foster huge trade surpluses to fuel the growth of their economy.
問題:
為什么中國認為資本管制是獨立、主權貨幣政策的必要條件?
簡短回答:
因為這使他們的出口商品在國外市場上更便宜。他們控制資本來抑制人民幣的價值,以促進巨大的貿易順差來推動他們的經濟增長。
It really is counter intuitive. They use currency in order to control the exchange rate. In order to keep the exchange rate stable, while running massive trade surpluses. So they can make more money, in order to foster growth and remain independent?
If China did not "peg" the yuan to western currencies by controlling hard currencies; the trade surplus would naturally cause the yuan to strengthen which would make their products cost more and force the surplus down.
認真回答:
這真的違背常識。他們使用貨幣來控制匯率。為了保持匯率穩(wěn)定,同時保持巨額貿易順差。這樣他們就能賺更多的錢,以促進增長并保持獨立?
如果中國沒有通過控制硬通貨將人民幣與西方貨幣“掛鉤”;貿易順差自然會導致人民幣升值,這將使他們的產品成本更高,并迫使順差下降。
It's a bit misleading. They don't control how much money flows into China by limiting investment or limiting exports . They control hard capital to influence the exchange rate by buying western currencies with the yuan to push the value of the yuan down while pushing the western currencies up. That's what they mean by "capital controls". They balance the market forces to give themselves an edge. Most advanced economies don't do this, it's a bit of a sore point that China does do it.
這種穩(wěn)定性是通過資本管制來維持的,資本管制是指控制有多少外國資金可以流入和流出中國經濟,進而影響外匯匯率。
這種答案有點誤導人。他們不會通過限制投資或出口來控制流入中國的資金量。他們通過用人民幣購買西方貨幣來控制硬資本以影響匯率,從而推動人民幣貶值,同時推動西方貨幣升值。這就是他們所說的“資本管制”。他們平衡市場力量,給自己一個優(yōu)勢。大多數發(fā)達經濟體不這樣做,因為這么做會一點痛處,只有中國這樣做。
It's hard to take any talk of the Yuan becoming a reserve currency seriously given it's value is not set by the market but the result of Chinese currency manipulation. It's more of a long term goal I guess.
北京不會推動人民幣成為占主導地位的全球儲備貨幣,而是可能在與其有積極貿易往來的國家中追求其貨幣影響范圍。相反,它可能會專注于打破美元在世界部分地區(qū)的主導地位……
回復上面這條:鑒于人民幣的價值不是由市場決定的,而是中國操縱匯率的結果,很難認真對待人民幣成為儲備貨幣的任何說法。我想這更像是一個長期目標。
This is bad for the West as it creates economic instability over the short term. It's also good for the West because all that money must eventually come back to it's country of origin to achieve it's full value. In economics though short term instabilities can make for sever economic pain even though the big picture is brighter.
關于西方金融……
這種政策對西方不利,因為它會在短期內造成經濟不穩(wěn)定。當然,這對西方也有好處,因為所有的錢最終都必須回到它的來源國,以實現它的全部價值。然而,在經濟學中,短期的不穩(wěn)定可能導致嚴重的經濟陣痛,盡管整體前景更加光明。
A cornerstone of China’s economic policy is managing the yuan exchange rate to benefit its exports. China does not have a floating exchange rate that is determined by market forces, as is the case with most advanced economies. ... The true value of the yuan is difficult to ascertain, and although various studies over the years suggest a wide range of undervaluation - from as low as 3% to as high as 50% - the general agreement is that the currency is substantially undervalued. By keeping the yuan at artificially low levels, China makes its exports more competitive in the global marketplace. China achieves this by pegging the yuan to the U.S. dollar at a daily reference rate set by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and allowing the currency to fluctuate within a fixed band (set at 1% as of January 2014) on either side of the reference rate. Because the yuan would appreciate significantly against the greenback if it were allowed to float freely, China caps its rise by buying dollars and selling yuan.
為什么中國的貨幣與美元掛鉤?
中國經濟政策的一個基石是管理人民幣匯率以利于出口。與大多數發(fā)達經濟體不同,中國沒有由市場力量決定的浮動匯率……人民幣的真實價值很難確定,盡管多年來的各種研究表明人民幣被低估的幅度很大,從3%到50%都有可能,不過普遍的共識是人民幣被大幅低估。但通過人為地將人民幣保持在低水平,中國使其出口產品在全球市場上更具競爭力。中國實現這一目標的方法是,按照中國人民銀行設定的每日參考匯率將人民幣與美元掛鉤,并允許人民幣在參考匯率上下的固定區(qū)間內波動(2014年1月設定為1%)。因為如果允許自由浮動,人民幣對美元將大幅升值,中國通過買入美元和賣出人民幣來限制人民幣升值。