題圖。

Americans overwhelmingly desire all the traditional trappings of the American dream—owning a home, having a family, and looking forward to a comfortable retirement. But very few believe they can easily achieve it.

絕大多數(shù)美國(guó)人都渴望實(shí)現(xiàn)所有傳統(tǒng)的美國(guó)夢(mèng)，擁有自己的房子、成家立業(yè)、安享晚年。但很少有人相信他們能輕松實(shí)現(xiàn)這一夢(mèng)想。

A July Wall Street Journal/NORC poll of 1,502 U.S. adults shows a stark gap between people’s wishes and their expectations. The trend was consistent across gender and party lines, but held more true for younger generations, who have been priced out of homeownership and saddled with high interest rates and student debt.

《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》與全國(guó)民意研究中心于7月份對(duì)1502名美國(guó)成年人進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查顯示，人們的愿望與期望之間存在明顯差距。這一趨勢(shì)在不同性別和黨派之間都是一致的，但對(duì)于年輕一代來(lái)說(shuō)尤為如此，因?yàn)樗麄円呀?jīng)被擠出了自行置業(yè)的行列，并背負(fù)著高利率和學(xué)生貸款。
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While 89% of respondents said owning a home is either essential or important to their vision of the future, only 10% said homeownership is easy or somewhat easy to achieve. Financial security and a comfortable retirement were similarly labeled as essential or important by 96% and 95% of people, respectively, but rated as easy or somewhat easy to pull off by only 9% and 8%.

盡管89%的受訪者表示，擁有一套住房對(duì)他們的未來(lái)愿景至關(guān)重要，但只有10%的受訪者表示，擁有一套住房很容易實(shí)現(xiàn)或比較容易實(shí)現(xiàn)。同樣，分別有96%和95%的人認(rèn)為財(cái)務(wù)安全和舒適的退休生活是必要或重要的，但認(rèn)為容易或比較容易實(shí)現(xiàn)的只有9%和8%。


Twelve years ago, when researchers at Public Religion Research Institute asked 2,501 people if the American dream “still holds true,” more than half said it did. When The Wall Street Journal asked the same question in July, that dropped to about a third of respondents.

十二年前，當(dāng)公共宗教研究所的研究人員詢(xún)問(wèn)2501人美國(guó)夢(mèng)是否“仍然真實(shí)”時(shí)，超過(guò)半數(shù)的人表示“真實(shí)”。當(dāng)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》今年7月提出同樣的問(wèn)題時(shí)，這一比例下降到了約三分之一。

By many measures, economists say, people are right to feel that their shot at success has diminished.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，從許多方面來(lái)看，人們感到成功機(jī)會(huì)減少是準(zhǔn)確的。
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“Key aspects of the American dream seem out of reach in a way that they were not in past generations,” says Emerson Sprick, an economist at Washington, D.C., think tank the Bipartisan Policy Center.

華盛頓智庫(kù)“兩黨政策中心”的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家埃默森-斯普利克說(shuō)：“美國(guó)夢(mèng)的關(guān)鍵方面似乎與過(guò)去幾代人不同，變得遙不可及?！?/b>
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Sprick points to the continued decline of private-sector pensions—leading to their near-disappearance—and the surge in the cost of homeownership as two of the biggest economic changes over the past decade.

斯普利克指出，過(guò)去十年中最大的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變化是，私營(yíng)部門(mén)養(yǎng)老金的持續(xù)下降導(dǎo)致其已近乎消失，另一個(gè)是購(gòu)房成本的激增。

Marquell Washington remembers that his elementary-school teachers instilled in him that high grades and a college degree would be his ticket out of the Chicago neighborhood where he grew up “hearing gunshots every day.”

馬奎爾-華盛頓記得，他的小學(xué)老師向他灌輸了這樣的思想：成績(jī)優(yōu)異并獲得大學(xué)學(xué)位將是他離開(kāi)“每天都能聽(tīng)到槍聲”的芝加哥社區(qū)的通行證。

The promise, the now 22-year-old says, was that “you’d get a good job and enjoy the rest of your life in a house with a front gate.” He was the first person in his family to go to college, but dropped out during his junior year after three of his close friends were killed within months of one another.

現(xiàn)年22歲的他說(shuō)，當(dāng)時(shí)的承諾是“你會(huì)找到一份好工作，在有前門(mén)的房子里安享晚年”。他是家里第一個(gè)上大學(xué)的人，但在大三那年，他的三個(gè)好友在幾個(gè)月內(nèi)相繼遇害，于是他輟學(xué)了。

He now makes around $30,000 a year working part-time for youth development nonprofit My Block, My Hood, My City. He says he can’t afford to move out of his mother’s Section 8 apartment where he grew up, let alone to resolve the $10,000 debt he needs to transfer him to a school closer to home. He hasn’t given up on his American dream, he says, but he’s finding it much less straightforward than he thought.

現(xiàn)在，他在非營(yíng)利性青年發(fā)展組織“我的街區(qū)、我的街區(qū)、我的城市”兼職工作，年薪約為3萬(wàn)美元。他說(shuō)，他沒(méi)錢(qián)搬出母親的第8區(qū)公寓，因?yàn)樗麖男【驮谀抢镩L(zhǎng)大，更不用說(shuō)解決轉(zhuǎn)到離家更近的學(xué)校所需的1萬(wàn)美元債務(wù)了。他說(shuō)，他并沒(méi)有放棄他的美國(guó)夢(mèng)，但他發(fā)現(xiàn)這個(gè)夢(mèng)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有他想象的那么簡(jiǎn)單。

“They don’t tell you how hard it is to obtain the American dream,” says Washington. “You have to learn that on your own.”

“他們沒(méi)有告訴你實(shí)現(xiàn)美國(guó)夢(mèng)有多難，”華盛頓說(shuō)?！澳惚仨氉约喝ンw會(huì)?！?/b>

Economic mobility has declined in recent decades on the whole, economists say.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，近幾十年來(lái)，經(jīng)濟(jì)流動(dòng)性總體上有所下降。



插圖：黛安-湯普森正在查看她收集的優(yōu)惠券，這些優(yōu)惠券可以幫助她節(jié)省與兩個(gè)女兒、女婿和孫輩同住的家中的食品雜貨和家居用品開(kāi)支

While around 90% of children born in 1940 were ultimately better off than their parents, according to research by Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor Nathaniel Hendren and Harvard University economist Raj Chetty, only around half of those born in the 1980s were able to say the same. Younger cohorts appear to be in a similar position based on median income growth, Hendren says, but likely experienced a slight post-Covid boost as wages for lower-income Americans have outpaced other earners.

根據(jù)麻省理工學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授納撒尼爾-亨德倫和哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家拉吉-切蒂的研究，1940年出生的兒童中約有90%的人最終比他們的父母生活得更好，但在20世紀(jì)80年代出生的兒童中，只有約一半的人能夠這樣說(shuō)。亨德倫說(shuō)，從收入增長(zhǎng)中位數(shù)來(lái)看，年輕一代的情況似乎相似，但由于低收入美國(guó)人的工資增長(zhǎng)速度超過(guò)了其他收入人群，他們的收入在新冠時(shí)期后可能僅僅略有增長(zhǎng)。
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“It’s still a coin flip whether or not you’ll earn more than your parents, but mobility probably hit a record low in the early 2020s,” Hendren says.

亨德倫說(shuō)：“你的收入是否會(huì)超過(guò)你的父母，還是個(gè)未知數(shù)，但流動(dòng)性可能會(huì)在2020年代初創(chuàng)下新低?！?/b>

Chetty looks at the American dream through the lens of how difficult it is for someone starting in a poor family to reach the middle class. For white Americans in particular, that goal has become significantly more challenging over the past 15 years, he says.

切蒂?gòu)囊粋€(gè)貧困家庭出身的人進(jìn)入中產(chǎn)階級(jí)有多難的角度來(lái)審視美國(guó)夢(mèng)。他說(shuō)，特別是對(duì)于美國(guó)白人來(lái)說(shuō)，在過(guò)去的15年里，這一目標(biāo)變得更具挑戰(zhàn)性。
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“People are right to feel that the American dream has become harder to achieve both in terms of their chances of doing better than their parents and their chances of rising out of poverty,” Chetty says.

切蒂說(shuō)：“人們有理由感到，美國(guó)夢(mèng)變得更加難以實(shí)現(xiàn)，這既體現(xiàn)在他們比父母過(guò)得更好的機(jī)會(huì)上，也體現(xiàn)在他們擺脫貧困的機(jī)會(huì)上?！?/b>

A home of one’s own

一個(gè)屬于自己的家

Richard Thomas and Cherish Celetti were sure they had pulled off their own version of the American dream when they bought a five-bedroom split-level in Mount Vernon, N.Y., for $612,000 in 2017.

理查德-托馬斯和切利什-塞萊蒂2017年以61.2萬(wàn)美元的價(jià)格在紐約州芒特弗農(nóng)買(mǎi)下了一套五居室的復(fù)式樓，他們確信自己已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了自己版本的美國(guó)夢(mèng)。

“It was like everything was going in the right direction,” says Celetti, a 42-year-old lawyer who grew up poor among nine siblings.

42歲的律師塞萊蒂，在九個(gè)兄弟姐妹中長(zhǎng)大，家境貧寒，他說(shuō)：”好像一切都朝著正確的方向發(fā)展?！?/b>
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插圖：理查德-托馬斯不得不應(yīng)對(duì)不斷上漲的成本，這可能使他難以保住自己的房子。

Buying her first house not only meant the couple’s children, now 8 and 11, could have their own bedrooms—a luxury both Thomas and Celetti used to pine for—but also that they had space to take in Celetti’s mom, Diane Thompson, and 20-year-old sister.

買(mǎi)下自己的第一套房子，不僅意味著這對(duì)夫婦的孩子（現(xiàn)在分別是8歲和11歲）可以擁有自己的臥室--這是托馬斯和塞萊蒂曾經(jīng)夢(mèng)寐以求的奢望，而且還意味著他們有空間接納塞萊蒂的母親戴安娜-湯普森和20歲的妹妹。

The couple’s $5,400 mortgage, including $689 in private mortgage insurance, was tight but doable, between Celetti’s salary and her husband’s as mayor of the town at the time. But seemingly overnight, their energy costs doubled to more than $2,000 a month, and grocery prices, insurance and other bills for the family of now six surged.

這對(duì)夫婦的按揭貸款為5400美元，其中包括689美元的私人抵押貸款保險(xiǎn)，介于塞萊蒂的工資和她當(dāng)時(shí)擔(dān)任鎮(zhèn)長(zhǎng)的丈夫收入之間，雖然拮據(jù)，但還能應(yīng)付。但似乎在一夜之間，他們的能源成本翻了一番，達(dá)到每月2000多美元，六口之家的雜貨價(jià)格、保險(xiǎn)和其他費(fèi)用也飆升。

Thomas was forced to resign as mayor and ordered to pay a fine after pleading guilty in July 2019 to stealing $12,900 from his campaign. He says he only took the plea deal because he couldn’t afford to fight the charge. He now works in public relations.

托馬斯于2019年7月承認(rèn)從競(jìng)選活動(dòng)中竊取了12900美元，被迫辭去市長(zhǎng)職務(wù)，并被勒令支付罰款。他說(shuō)，他接受認(rèn)罪協(xié)議只是因?yàn)樗麩o(wú)力對(duì)抗指控。他現(xiàn)在從事公共關(guān)系工作。

Both Thomas and Celetti lowered their retirement contributions to near zero, scrapped plans for vacations and started setting the thermostat above 80 degrees in the summer and below 65 in the winter. They know selling the house—which has more than doubled in value—would be their best bet, but don’t know where they would go if they left.

托馬斯和塞萊蒂的退休金都降至近乎零的程度，并取消了度假計(jì)劃，并開(kāi)始將恒溫器的溫度設(shè)置為夏季高于80華氏度（26.6攝氏度），冬季低于65華氏度（18.3攝氏度）。他們知道賣(mài)掉房子是最好的選擇，因?yàn)榉孔拥膬r(jià)值已經(jīng)翻了一番還多，但他們不知道離開(kāi)后會(huì)去哪里。

“We want to stay in our community. We want to raise our kids here, but the dream of being able to do that really escapes us,” says Thomas. “We had the American dream. Now it’s the American nightmare because it feels like the country made us a promise and then took it away.”

“我們想留在我們的社區(qū)。我們想在這里養(yǎng)育我們的孩子，但我們真的無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)夢(mèng)想，”托馬斯說(shuō)?！拔覀?cè)?jīng)有過(guò)美國(guó)夢(mèng)?，F(xiàn)在卻成了美國(guó)夢(mèng)魘，因?yàn)楦杏X(jué)就像國(guó)家給了我們承諾，然后又收回了?！?/b>



插圖：理查德-托馬斯與岳母黛安-湯普森和兒子哈里森在家共進(jìn)晚餐時(shí)聊天

Many are struggling to achieve their goals of homeownership at all. Owning a home was a record 47% more expensive than renting for the 12 months ending in June, according to research by commercial real-estate services firm CBRE. That is even after rents have skyrocketed—though the firm forecasts improvement over the next year.

還有許多人根本無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)購(gòu)房的目標(biāo)。根據(jù)商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)公司世邦魏理仕的研究，在截至6月份的過(guò)去12個(gè)月里，擁有一套住房的成本比租房高出47%，創(chuàng)下歷史新高。盡管該公司預(yù)測(cè)明年的情況會(huì)有所改善，但在房租飆升的情況下，自置居所的價(jià)格仍比租房高出47%。

Lily Roark’s father bought the eight-bedroom New Orleans fixer-upper she grew up in for $160,000 in the early 2000s. When she went to look for houses in Louisville, Ky., with partner Jessica Holland this past spring, she was sure $250,000 would be a big enough budget for a starter with one or two bedrooms.

莉莉-羅克的父親在2000年代初花16萬(wàn)美元買(mǎi)下了她在新奧爾良長(zhǎng)大的那套有8個(gè)臥室的二手房。而去年春天，當(dāng)她和搭檔杰西卡-霍蘭一起在肯塔基州路易斯維爾找房子的時(shí)候，她確信25萬(wàn)美元的預(yù)算才足夠買(mǎi)一到兩間臥室的起步房了。

Instead, “we were looking at houses that had no walls and no floors,” says Holland, a 28-year-old second grade teacher.

可實(shí)際上，28歲的二年級(jí)教師霍蘭說(shuō)：“我們看到的是連墻帶地板都沒(méi)有的房子?！?/b>



插圖：杰西卡-霍蘭德和莉莉-羅克覺(jué)得她們?cè)诰幼〉刭I(mǎi)不起首套房。

Since Roark and Holland still want to give priority to saving for a house, the couple feels as though they can’t move forward with any of their other life goals—getting engaged, having a wedding and planning for children.

由于羅克和霍蘭仍想優(yōu)先考慮存錢(qián)買(mǎi)房，他們覺(jué)得自己無(wú)法推進(jìn)其他生活目標(biāo)--訂婚、舉辦婚禮和要孩子。

They are both frustrated that homeownership and family formation seemed so much more attainable for their parents, who made less than their combined income of around $100,000 at their ages.

他們都感到沮喪的是，對(duì)于他們的父母來(lái)說(shuō)，擁有房屋和組建家庭似乎更容易實(shí)現(xiàn)，他們的總收入約10萬(wàn)美元，而他們的父母在他們這個(gè)年齡的時(shí)候掙的比他們還少。
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“We’re doing everything right, we’re saving, we went to good schools, I have a master’s degree, and it’s still so hard,” Holland says.

霍蘭說(shuō)：“我們所做的一切都是正確的，我們省吃?xún)€用，我們上的都是好學(xué)校，我還有一個(gè)碩士學(xué)位，但生活仍然如此艱難?！?/b>

The marriage question

婚姻問(wèn)題

In Des Plaines, Ill., 31-year-old Kevin Murphy believes that even finding a partner is more difficult than it used to be because of how expensive dating has become. He can’t always afford to pick up the check, and worries that he is less desirable than someone who makes more than his $95,000 yearly income or owns a home.

在伊利諾伊州德斯普蘭斯，31歲的凱文-墨菲認(rèn)為，由于約會(huì)變得如此昂貴，就連尋找伴侶也比以前困難。他并不總是能付得起支票，并擔(dān)心自己不如那些年收入比他9.5萬(wàn)美元更高或擁有一套住房的人受歡迎。

In the WSJ/NORC poll, 62% of people said marriage was either essential or important to their vision of the American dream, but only 47% of people think it is easily attainable.

在這項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查中，62%的人表示婚姻對(duì)他們的美國(guó)夢(mèng)至關(guān)重要，但只有47%的人認(rèn)為婚姻很容易實(shí)現(xiàn)。

“For me, the American dream feels further away than it’s ever been,” says Murphy, who works in government affairs for an energy company. “I worry about when I’m 50 or 60 and if nothing changes, I’m going to be totally screwed.”

在一家能源公司從事政府事務(wù)工作的墨菲說(shuō)：“對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)夢(mèng)感覺(jué)比以往任何時(shí)候都要遙遠(yuǎn)。我擔(dān)心自己到了五六十歲，如果一切照舊，我就會(huì)徹底完蛋?！?/b>

He interacts with older Americans in that position every day in his side job as founder of the Jet City Coalition nonprofit, which provides free home maintenance to people in need.

他作為非營(yíng)利組織“噴氣城市聯(lián)盟”的創(chuàng)始人，每天都與處于這種狀況的美國(guó)老年人打交道，該組織為有需要的人提供免費(fèi)的房屋維修服務(wù)。

“I take care of these people who trade insulin for groceries,” says Murphy of choosing which essentials to go without. He says he’s noticed a growing sense of hopelessness tied not only to high prices, but also to a seemingly more permanent state where “the math doesn’t make sense.”

墨菲說(shuō)：“我照顧那些用胰島素?fù)Q日用品的人。他說(shuō)，他注意到越來(lái)越多的人感到絕望，這不僅與高物價(jià)有關(guān)，還與“數(shù)學(xué)沒(méi)有意義”這種看似更持久的狀態(tài)有關(guān)。

Murphy is particularly worried about wealth inequality, which has increased over time, according to an analysis of Survey of Consumer Finances data by Scott Winship at right-leaning think tank the American Enterprise Institute.

根據(jù)右翼智庫(kù)美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所的斯科特-溫希普對(duì)《消費(fèi)者財(cái)務(wù)狀況調(diào)查》數(shù)據(jù)的分析，墨菲尤其擔(dān)心財(cái)富不平等的問(wèn)題，因?yàn)殡S著時(shí)間的推移，財(cái)富不平等的現(xiàn)象越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。

In 1989, the typical net worth of the wealthiest 10% of households was just under 15 times the overall median net worth for all Americans, compared with almost 20 times that number in 2022. Though, Winship notes, median wealth is more than twice as high as it was in 1989 even after adjusting for inflation. The economy is working well for some people, including investors and many who bought homes when interest rates were low—creating a divide between higher-income Americans and most everyone else.

1989年，最富有的10%家庭的典型凈資產(chǎn)略低于所有美國(guó)人總體凈資產(chǎn)中位數(shù)的15倍，而2022年這一數(shù)字幾乎到了20倍。不過(guò)，溫希普指出，即使扣除通貨膨脹因素，財(cái)富中位數(shù)也比1989年高出兩倍多。對(duì)一些人來(lái)說(shuō)，經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行良好，包括投資者和許多在低利率時(shí)期買(mǎi)房的人，這就造成了高收入美國(guó)人與大多數(shù)其他人之間的鴻溝。

“It feels like my parents’ generation has ruined it for us,” Murphy says. “It’s such a stark case of the haves and have-nots.”

“感覺(jué)就像我父母那一代人毀了我們一樣?！蹦普f(shuō)，“這就是富人和窮人的鮮明對(duì)比?！?br />