Overnight, the situation in the Middle East suddenly changed significantly. First, in the early morning of October 1, the Israel Defense Forces entered the southern Lebanon region and began to launch a ground offensive against Hezbollah. Just a dozen hours later, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel that night. The situation in the Middle East has seriously escalated! A full-scale war is imminent.

就在一夜之間，中東局勢(shì)突然出現(xiàn)了重大變化。 首先是10月1日凌晨，以色列國(guó)防軍進(jìn)入黎巴嫩南部地區(qū)，開(kāi)始向真主黨武裝發(fā)起地面進(jìn)攻。 僅僅十幾個(gè)小時(shí)之后，當(dāng)天晚上伊朗就向以色列發(fā)動(dòng)了大規(guī)模導(dǎo)彈襲擊。 中東局勢(shì)嚴(yán)重升級(jí)！ 全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)一觸即發(fā)。

The Israeli army's ground offensive against Hezbollah was expected by many military observers, because the Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah headquarters on September 27, beheading Hezbollah's top leader Nasrallah, was a very clear signal that Israel was ready to have a showdown with Hezbollah. Since the Hezbollah pager explosion on September 18, Israel has continued to carry out fierce air strikes for ten days. At present, Hezbollah's senior leaders are almost wiped out, and thousands of middle-level backbones have been killed and injured. The entire command and communication system can be said to have completely collapsed. The Hezbollah armed forces are leaderless, suffering heavy losses, and low morale. It is the time when their strength is weakest, and this is also the best time Israel has been waiting for.

以軍對(duì)真主黨的地面進(jìn)攻，這早在很多軍事觀察員的意料之中，因?yàn)?月27日以軍空襲真主黨總部斬首真主黨最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人納斯魯拉，就是一個(gè)非常明確的信號(hào)，以色列準(zhǔn)備和真主黨徹底攤牌清算了。 自從9月18日，真主黨尋呼機(jī)爆炸事件以來(lái)，以色列已經(jīng)持續(xù)進(jìn)行了十天的猛烈空襲，眼下真主黨的高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)幾乎團(tuán)滅，中層骨干死傷數(shù)千人，整個(gè)指揮、通訊體系可以說(shuō)完全崩塌了。 真主黨武裝群龍無(wú)首，損失慘重，士氣低落，正是力量最薄弱的時(shí)候，這也正是以色列一直在等待的最佳時(shí)機(jī)。

Israel's ground offensive this time has two main purposes. First, to further strike Hezbollah. Even if it cannot be completely eliminated, it must cause the greatest damage to Hezbollah, making it difficult for Hezbollah to recover in the short term, creating a peaceful environment for Israel for five or even ten years. Second, in southern Lebanon, mainly in the area from the Lebanese-Israeli border to the south bank of the Litani River, it is recommended to establish a buffer zone, or a safe zone, or a demilitarized zone, with a depth of about 30 kilometers to ensure the safety of northern Israel, at least so that tens of thousands of northern Israelis who have evacuated their homes can return home and resume normal life.

以色列這次地面進(jìn)攻，目的主要是兩個(gè)，一是進(jìn)一步打擊真主黨的力量，即便不能徹底肅清，也要給真主黨造成最大限度的重創(chuàng)，使得真主黨在短期內(nèi)難以恢復(fù)元?dú)?，為以色列打出五年甚至十年的和平環(huán)境。 二是在黎巴嫩南部，主要是在黎以邊境到利塔尼河南岸地區(qū)，建議縱深大約30公里的緩沖區(qū)，或者叫安全區(qū)、非武裝區(qū)，來(lái)確保以色列北部地區(qū)的安全，至少讓現(xiàn)在數(shù)萬(wàn)撤離家園的以色列北部民眾能夠返回家園，恢復(fù)正常生活。

It should be said that these two goals of Israel are not difficult to achieve. The key is the issue of time. Unlike the military operation against Hamas in Gaza, this ground operation against Hezbollah must adopt a quick and decisive blitzkrieg, "fast in and slow out". The military operation must be fast and end in about ten days, followed by the establishment of a buffer zone, which may last for months or even years.

應(yīng)該說(shuō)，以色列的這兩個(gè)目標(biāo)，并不難實(shí)現(xiàn)。 關(guān)鍵是時(shí)間問(wèn)題，和在加沙對(duì)哈馬斯的軍事行動(dòng)不同，這次對(duì)真主黨的地面行動(dòng)必須要采取速戰(zhàn)速?zèng)Q的閃擊戰(zhàn)，“快進(jìn)慢出”，軍事行動(dòng)要快，在十天左右結(jié)束，隨后就是建立緩沖區(qū)，這個(gè)時(shí)間就可能要持續(xù)數(shù)月甚至數(shù)年。

Because the Gaza area is small and densely populated, and Hamas hides its troops among the people, the rapid progress of the military operation will inevitably lead to a large number of civilian casualties, which will cause condemnation from the international community. Therefore, the Israeli army has to control the progress, identify and confirm the targets of the attack, and minimize civilian casualties. Despite this, it was still condemned and isolated by the international community.

因?yàn)榧由车貐^(qū)面積狹小人口密集，哈馬斯又藏兵于民，軍事行動(dòng)進(jìn)展快，必然導(dǎo)致大量平民死傷，從而引起國(guó)際社會(huì)的譴責(zé)，所以以軍不得不控制進(jìn)展，對(duì)攻擊目標(biāo)進(jìn)行甄別和確認(rèn)，盡可能減少平民傷亡。 盡管如此，還是遭到了國(guó)際社會(huì)的譴責(zé)和孤立。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


As for Hezbollah, due to the imminent US election, the United States has been asking Israel not to launch a ground offensive to avoid escalating the situation in the Middle East, leading to rising oil prices, and thus impacting the US economy, which is not good for the ruling Democratic government. Although Israel finally ignored the opposition of the United States and insisted on launching a ground offensive. However, in order to obtain the support of the United States in the future, Israel must fight quickly and make a quick decision to minimize the impact on the US economy and the election.

而現(xiàn)在對(duì)真主黨，由于美國(guó)大選在即，美國(guó)之前一直要求以色列不要發(fā)動(dòng)地面進(jìn)攻，以免引起中東局勢(shì)升級(jí)，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)上漲，從而對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生沖擊，這對(duì)執(zhí)政的民主黨政府不利。 雖然以色列最終還是不顧美國(guó)的反對(duì)，堅(jiān)持發(fā)動(dòng)了地面進(jìn)攻。 但是為了后續(xù)還能獲得美國(guó)的支持，以色列就必須速戰(zhàn)速?zèng)Q，將對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和大選的影響降到最低。

Then, another big thing happened!
At 19:30 on the evening of October 1, local time, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Air defense alarms were sounded almost throughout Israel. Millions of residents in major cities such as Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba rushed into air-raid shelters to avoid air strikes.
According to reports, Iran launched about 200 missiles, including the most advanced "Fatah" hypersonic missile. However, most of the missiles were intercepted by the Israeli army's "Patriot" air defense missiles and "Iron Dome" air defense systems. The loss situation is not clear now.

緊接著，又一件大事發(fā)生了！
當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間10月1日晚19時(shí)30分，伊朗對(duì)以色列發(fā)動(dòng)大規(guī)模飛彈襲擊，以色列幾乎全境都拉響了防空警報(bào)，以色列耶路撒冷、特拉維夫、海法、貝爾謝巴等多個(gè)大城市的數(shù)百萬(wàn)居民緊急涌入防空洞躲避空襲。
據(jù)報(bào)道，伊朗發(fā)射了大約200枚導(dǎo)彈，其中還包括最先進(jìn)的“法塔赫”高超音速飛彈。 不過(guò)絕大部分導(dǎo)彈都被以軍的“愛(ài)國(guó)者”防空導(dǎo)彈和“鐵穹”防空系統(tǒng)攔截。 現(xiàn)在損失情況還不清楚。

Regardless of the loss situation, this incident will inevitably cause a serious escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Because Israel will inevitably fight back, and even trigger a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.
The key now is Israel's losses, which will determine the scale and extent of Israel's subsequent retaliation.

不管損失情況如何，這個(gè)事件必然都會(huì)引起中東局勢(shì)的嚴(yán)重升級(jí)。 因?yàn)橐陨斜厝粫?huì)進(jìn)行反擊，甚至?xí)l(fā)以色列同伊朗的全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
現(xiàn)在的關(guān)鍵是以色列損失情況，這將決定以色列接下來(lái)報(bào)復(fù)反擊的規(guī)模和程度。

If the losses are minor, just like the last time the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Brigadier General Zahedi, was beheaded, Iran's missile attack only injured an Israeli child, and Israel's retaliation was symbolic in the end. The same is true this time. The United States will definitely suppress Israel to avoid causing the situation in the Middle East to deteriorate.
But if Israel suffers great losses, the United States will not be able to suppress it. It should be noted that Jewish communities and Jewish financial groups have a significant influence on the political and business circles of the United States.

如果損失輕微，就像上次伊朗革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)司令扎赫迪準(zhǔn)將被斬首后，伊朗的導(dǎo)彈襲擊只造成了以色列一名兒童受傷，最后以色列的報(bào)復(fù)也就象征性意思一下。 這次同樣如此，美國(guó)一定會(huì)壓制以色列，避免引起中東局勢(shì)惡化。
但是如果以色列損失很大，那美國(guó)想壓也壓不住了。 要知道猶太社團(tuán)和猶太財(cái)團(tuán)對(duì)美國(guó)的政界商界都是具有重大影響力的。

Israel's retaliatory counterattack may be to behead Iranian senior officials, or to carry out air strikes on Iran's high-value targets, such as oil facilities and nuclear facilities. Oil facilities are the mainstay of Iran's economy. Despite the economic sanctions imposed by the West, Iran still has some oil trade with some countries and organizations. If these oil facilities are attacked, it will have a huge negative impact on Iran's economy, making the already difficult Iranian economy even worse.

以色列的報(bào)復(fù)反擊，可能對(duì)會(huì)伊朗高層進(jìn)行斬首，也可能對(duì)伊朗的高價(jià)值目標(biāo)進(jìn)行空襲，如石油設(shè)施和核設(shè)施。 石油設(shè)施是伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱，盡管受到西方的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁，但伊朗和一些國(guó)家和組織還是有一些石油貿(mào)易，如果這些石油設(shè)施遭到襲擊，將會(huì)對(duì)伊朗的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大的負(fù)面影響，給已經(jīng)非常困難的伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì)雪上加霜。

As for nuclear facilities, they are definitely Iran's darlings, and this is also a thorn in Israel's eyes that it has always wanted to remove. Of course, this is also Iran's bottom line. If nuclear facilities are bombed, it is very likely to trigger a full-scale war.

至于核設(shè)施，那絕對(duì)是伊朗的寵兒，這也是以色列一直要拔掉的眼中釘肉中刺。 當(dāng)然這也是伊朗的底線(xiàn)，如果核設(shè)施被炸，極有可能會(huì)引發(fā)全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。