Does a ‘foreign power’ threaten the Panama Canal? Here’s what you need to know

“外國(guó)勢(shì)力”是否威脅到巴拿馬運(yùn)河？以下是你需要了解的信息

Analysis by Patrick Oppmann, CNN
Published 12:01 AM EST, Fri January 31, 2025

In an aerial view, the container ship Tampa Triumph passes through the Miraflores Locks as it transits the Panama Canal on September 20, 2023 in Panama City, Panama. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

鳥(niǎo)瞰圖，2023年9月20日，巴拿馬巴拿馬城，集裝箱船坦帕凱旋號(hào)在穿越巴拿馬運(yùn)河時(shí)通過(guò)米拉弗洛雷斯船閘。

CNN — Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarks soon on his inaugural trip as the United States’ top diplomat. His first stop, Panama could prove to be the most contentious on the itinerary following President Donald Trump’s repeated demands for control of the Panama Canal.

美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿馬爾科·盧比奧（Marco Rubio）即將踏上他作為美國(guó)最高外交官的首次訪問(wèn)。他的第一站，巴拿馬，可能是在唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)一再要求控制巴拿馬運(yùn)河之后的行程中最具爭(zhēng)議的目的地。

“Panamanian sovereignty over the canal is clear. There is no discussion on this issue. The soul of a country is not up for discussion,” Panama President José Raúl Mulino emphasized on Thursday, just days ahead of his scheduled meeting with Rubio.

巴拿馬總統(tǒng)何塞·勞爾·穆利諾（José Raúl Mulino）周四強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)，“巴拿馬對(duì)運(yùn)河的主權(quán)是明確的。沒(méi)有關(guān)于這個(gè)問(wèn)題的討論。一個(gè)國(guó)家的靈魂不容討論，“就在他與盧比奧預(yù)定會(huì)晤的幾天前。

Yet the Trump administration doesn’t seem to be letting this go. In his inauguration speech, Trump mentioned Panama six times, more than any other foreign country. He and Republican allies are increasingly painting a dark scenario where the Panama Canal has secretly fallen under Chinese military control – arguing that’s why the US needs to seize the canal back from Beijing’s clutches.

然而，特朗普政府似乎并沒(méi)有放手。特朗普在就職演說(shuō)中提到巴拿馬六次，比其他任何的外國(guó)都多。他和共和黨盟友越來(lái)越多地描繪著巴拿馬運(yùn)河被秘密的落入中國(guó)的軍事控制的黑暗情節(jié)——他們認(rèn)為這就是為什么美國(guó)需要從北京的魔掌中奪回運(yùn)河的原因。

“A foreign power today possesses, through their companies, which we know are not independent, the ability to turn the canal into a choke point in a moment of conflict,” Rubio himself insisted during his Senate confirmation hearings this month.

“今天，一個(gè)外國(guó)勢(shì)力通過(guò)他們的公司（我們知道這些公司并不獨(dú)立），有能力在沖突時(shí)刻將運(yùn)河變成咽喉要道，”盧比奧本人在本月的參議院確認(rèn)聽(tīng)證會(huì)上堅(jiān)稱(chēng)。

“That is a direct threat to the national interest and security of the United States,” he added.

“這是對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)家利益和安全的直接威脅，”他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。

As ominous as it all sounds, the reality is not so straight forward. Here is a fact check about claims Trump’s administration has made about the Panama Canal.

盡管這一切聽(tīng)起來(lái)如此的不祥/不吉利，但現(xiàn)實(shí)并不那么簡(jiǎn)單。以下是關(guān)于特朗普政府對(duì)巴拿馬運(yùn)河的說(shuō)法的事實(shí)核查。

Is the Panama Canal under Chinese control?

巴拿馬運(yùn)河是否在中國(guó)控制之下？

Trump has long complained about the “bad deal” Jimmy Carter made when he returned the canal to Panama in 1977. But he’s been ratcheting up the rhetoric and falsehoods from the very start of his second term.

特朗普長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直抱怨吉米·卡特（JimmyCarter）在1977年將運(yùn)河歸還給巴拿馬時(shí)所做的“糟糕交易”。但從其第二個(gè)任期一開(kāi)始，他就一直在加強(qiáng)該言論和謊言。

“Panama’s promise to us has been broken,” Trump said during his inaugural speech. “Above all China is operating the Panama Canal and we didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama and we are taking it back!”

“巴拿馬對(duì)我們的承諾被打破了，”特朗普在就職演說(shuō)中說(shuō)?！白钪匾氖?，中國(guó)正在運(yùn)營(yíng)巴拿馬運(yùn)河，我們沒(méi)有把它交給中國(guó)，我們把它給了巴拿馬，我們正在把它收回來(lái)！”

On his Truth Social network, Trump has also claimed – without proof – that Chinese soldiers have been deployed to the canal and that “Panama is, with great speed attempting to take down the 64% of signs which are written in Chinese. They are all over the Zone.”

在他的Truth Social網(wǎng)絡(luò)上，特朗普還在沒(méi)有證據(jù)的情況下聲稱(chēng)，中國(guó)士兵已被部署到運(yùn)河上，并且聲稱(chēng)“巴拿馬，正在以極快的速度試圖拆除中文標(biāo)識(shí)，這些標(biāo)識(shí)有64%是中文，遍布整個(gè)區(qū)域。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


But the “Zone” – a former American enclave bordering the canal – hasn’t existed since 1979.

但該“區(qū)域”——一塊與運(yùn)河接壤的前美國(guó)飛地——自1979年就不存在了。

And if the scenario Trump describes sounds like the plot of a movie, well, it was. In the 2001 movie “The Tailor of Panama,” which starred Pierce Brosnan and Geoffrey Rush, the US invades Panama after receiving bogus intelligence that China is trying to secretly buy the canal.

如果特朗普描述的場(chǎng)景聽(tīng)起來(lái)像電影的情節(jié)，那么，確實(shí)如此。在2001年由皮爾斯·布魯斯南（Pierce Brosnan）和杰弗里·拉什（Geoffrey Rush）主演的電影《巴拿馬裁縫》（The Tailor of Panama）中，美國(guó)在收到中國(guó)試圖秘密購(gòu)買(mǎi)運(yùn)河的虛假情報(bào)后入侵巴拿馬。

In reality, since 2000 the canal has been operated by the Panama Canal Authority, whose administrator, deputy administrator and 11-member board are sexted by Panama’s government but operate independently.

實(shí)際上，自2000年以來(lái)，運(yùn)河一直由巴拿馬運(yùn)河管理局運(yùn)營(yíng)，其管理人、副管理人和11名成員的董事會(huì)都由巴拿馬政府選出，但獨(dú)立運(yùn)作。

The majority of the canal’s employees are Panamanians and Panama designates which companies are awarded the contracts to run the ports near the canal. Ships transiting the 50-mile-long canal are required to be piloted by local captains that work for the Canal Authority.

運(yùn)河的大多數(shù)員工是巴拿馬人，巴拿馬指定哪些公司獲得經(jīng)營(yíng)運(yùn)河附近港口的合同。穿越這條50英里長(zhǎng)的運(yùn)河的船只必須由為運(yùn)河管理局工作的當(dāng)?shù)卮L(zhǎng)駕駛。

While there is real concern about increased Chinese investment in Latin America, Panama included, to date there is no evidence of Chinese military activity in Panama. At his press conference on Thursday, Mulino said the US government has yet to provide his administration with any proof they had gathered of Chinese control of the canal.

雖然人們對(duì)中國(guó)在拉丁美洲（包括巴拿馬）的投資增加確實(shí)感到擔(dān)憂(yōu)，但迄今為止，沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明中國(guó)在巴拿馬有軍事活動(dòng)。在周四的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，穆利諾表示，美國(guó)政府尚未向他的政府提供收集到的有關(guān)中國(guó)控制運(yùn)河的任何證據(jù)。

Aerial view of the Panama Canal in the area of Pedro Miguel locks, in Panama City on December 13, 2022. Luis Acosta/AFP/Getty Images

鳥(niǎo)瞰圖，2022年12月13日，巴拿馬城佩德羅·米格爾船閘區(qū)的巴拿馬運(yùn)河。

So what does Rubio mean by ‘a(chǎn) foreign power’ in the Panama Canal?

那么，盧比奧所說(shuō)的巴拿馬運(yùn)河中的“外國(guó)勢(shì)力”是什么意思呢？

The Trump administration seems to be pointing to the fact that Panama Ports – part of a subsidiary of the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings – operates terminals on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the canal. So do several other companies.

特朗普政府似乎在指向這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即巴拿馬港口公司（隸屬于香港（特區(qū)）企業(yè)集團(tuán)長(zhǎng)江和記實(shí)業(yè)的子公司）在運(yùn)河的大西洋和太平洋兩側(cè)運(yùn)營(yíng)終端碼頭。其他幾家公司也是如此。

Hutchinson was first granted the concession over the two ports in 1997 when Panama and the US jointly administered the canal. That same year, control of Hong Kong – where Hutchinson is based – was transferred from the United Kingdom to China.

哈金森/和記黃埔于 1997 年首次獲得這兩個(gè)港口/碼頭的特許權(quán)，當(dāng)時(shí)巴拿馬和美國(guó)共同管理運(yùn)河。同年，香港（特區(qū)）的控制權(quán)（和記黃埔總部所在地）從英國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移到中國(guó)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


While falling under Beijing’s sphere of influence, Hutchison is hardly some murky Chinese military front company. It’s publicly traded, not known to be on any US blacklists and their subsidiary Hutchinson Ports is one of the world’s largest port operators, overseeing 53 ports in 24 countries, including for other US allies such as the UK, Australia and Canada.

雖然屬于北京的勢(shì)力范圍，但和記黃埔絕不是什么不可告人的中國(guó)軍事前線公司。其是公開(kāi)交易的，未被列入任何美國(guó)黑名單，其子公司和記黃埔港口是世界上最大的港口運(yùn)營(yíng)商之一，負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管 24 個(gè)國(guó)家/地區(qū)的 53 個(gè)港口，包括英國(guó)、澳大利亞和加拿大等其他的美國(guó)盟友。

Crucially, Hutchison does not control access to the Panama Canal. Workers at their two ports only load and unload containers onto ships and supply them with fuel. And they’re not the only ones – three other ports in the vicinity of the canal are operated by competing companies providing similar services.

至關(guān)重要的是，和記黃埔無(wú)法控制巴拿馬運(yùn)河的通行。這兩個(gè)港口的工人只將集裝箱裝卸到船上，并提供燃料。而且，他們并不是唯一的港口——運(yùn)河附近的其他三個(gè)由競(jìng)爭(zhēng)公司運(yùn)營(yíng)港口都提供類(lèi)似的服務(wù)。

Since Trump’s comments, Panama’s government has announced an audit of the Hutchison-owned Panama Ports. The company says it is complying fully and has even invited Rubio to visit its ports.

自從特朗普發(fā)表評(píng)論，巴拿馬政府已公布了和記黃埔經(jīng)營(yíng)的巴拿馬港口的審計(jì)報(bào)告。該公司表示，其完全符合（規(guī)定），甚至邀請(qǐng)了盧比奧參觀其港口。

“An invitation has been extended to the Secretary of State to visit our terminal facilities in Panama during his scheduled trip to the country,” Hutchison Ports spokesperson Anthony Tam said in an email to CNN.

“已向國(guó)務(wù)卿發(fā)出了一份邀請(qǐng)，在他預(yù)定的巴拿馬之行期間參觀我們?cè)诎湍民R的碼頭設(shè)施，”和記黃埔港口發(fā)言人安東尼·譚（Anthony Tam）在給CNN的一封電子郵件中說(shuō)。

The State Department would not comment if Rubio planned to accept the invitation to visit what the Trump administration has described – incorrectly — as a de facto Chinese military outpost in Panama.

盧比奧是否打算接受邀請(qǐng)，訪問(wèn)這個(gè)特朗普政府-不正確的-描述為事實(shí)上的中國(guó)在巴拿馬的軍事前哨，美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院沒(méi)有對(duì)此評(píng)論。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Does the US have any legal standing to seize the Panama Canal?

美國(guó)是否有任何法律地位來(lái)奪取巴拿馬運(yùn)河？

Under the 1977 treaty with Panama, the US returned the canal with the understanding that the waterway remain neutral.

根據(jù)1977年與巴拿馬的條約，美國(guó)歸還運(yùn)河，但前提是該水道/航道保持中立。

According to the agreement, the US could intervene militarily if the canal’s operations were disrupted by internal conflict or a foreign power. This seems to be what Trump is referencing when he threatens to “take the canal back.”

根據(jù)協(xié)議，如果運(yùn)河的運(yùn)營(yíng)因內(nèi)部沖突或外國(guó)勢(shì)力而中斷，美國(guó)可以進(jìn)行軍事干預(yù)。這似乎是特朗普威脅要“奪回運(yùn)河”時(shí)所引用的（依據(jù)）。

But it would be hard to argue that the waterway’s operations are disrupted or endangered. Following the expansion of the canal, which began in 2007 and Panama financed at a cost of more than $5 billion, more cargo than ever runs through the canal than it did during the years of US administration.

但很難說(shuō)這條航道的運(yùn)營(yíng)受到了干擾或受到威脅。隨著2007年開(kāi)始的運(yùn)河擴(kuò)建，巴拿馬籌集了超過(guò)50億美元的資金，通過(guò)運(yùn)河的貨物比以往任何時(shí)候都多，超過(guò)美國(guó)政府管理時(shí)期。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


A US occupation of the canal would fly in the face of international law and the treaty the US agreed to.

美國(guó)占領(lǐng)該運(yùn)河將與國(guó)際法和美國(guó)同意的條約背道而馳。

Ok, but theoretically what would happen if the US tried to take the Panama Canal?

好吧，但從理論上講，如果美國(guó)試圖奪取巴拿馬運(yùn)河會(huì)發(fā)生什么？

Since the 1989 US invasion that deposed dictator Manuel Noriega, Panama does not have an army but Panamanians are fiercely protective of the canal which is central to their national identity. And despite the saber rattling coming from the Trump administration, attempting to force the issue would pose major complications for two other top US priorities: migration and the economy.

自 1989 年美國(guó)入侵推翻DC者曼努埃爾·諾列加 （Manuel Noriega） 以來(lái)，巴拿馬沒(méi)有軍隊(duì)，但巴拿馬人極力保護(hù)運(yùn)河，這是他們國(guó)家身份的核心。盡管特朗普政府對(duì)此劍拔弩張/磨刀霍霍，但試圖武力解決這一問(wèn)題將使美國(guó)的另外兩個(gè)首要任務(wù)——移民和經(jīng)濟(jì)——引發(fā)復(fù)雜后果。

The canal isn’t the only critical passageway that Panama controls. Threatening Panama militarily could throw open the Darien Gap, the jungle crossing where hundreds of thousands of migrants make their way north from South America to the US.

運(yùn)河并不是巴拿馬控制的唯一重要通道。在軍事上威脅巴拿馬可能會(huì)開(kāi)放達(dá)連隘口（Darien Gap），這是數(shù)十萬(wàn)（非法）移民從南美洲向北前往美國(guó)的叢林通道。

Mulino had promised to close the gap to northbound migrants with Trump’s help – but don’t count on him honoring old commitments if US boots touch Panamanian soil.

穆利諾曾承諾在特朗普的幫助下減少北上移民的數(shù)量——但如果美國(guó)的靴子碰到巴拿馬的土地，就不要指望他會(huì)兌現(xiàn)舊/之前的承諾了。

Americans would also feel the heat. At least 25,000 US citizens live in Panama who would likely be placed in harm’s way by any US military action to seize the canal. Disruption of the canal’s operations would likely send prices of US goods from automobiles to sneakers soaring – about 40% of US container traffic passes through the waterway.

美國(guó)人也會(huì)感受到這股憤怒。至少有25,000名美國(guó)公民生活在巴拿馬，他們可能會(huì)因美國(guó)任何奪取運(yùn)河的軍事行動(dòng)而處于危險(xiǎn)之中。運(yùn)河運(yùn)營(yíng)中斷可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)商品的價(jià)格飆升，從汽車(chē)到運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋——大約40%的美國(guó)集裝箱運(yùn)輸通過(guò)該水道。

And of course, backing out of a decades-old deal and trying to wrest the canal back by force from an ally would be a propaganda goldmine for Russia and China which have both called for maintaining neutrality in the canal.

而且當(dāng)然的，退出一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)十年的協(xié)議并試圖從盟友那里用武力搶奪回運(yùn)河，將會(huì)是俄羅斯和中國(guó)的宣傳大金礦，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家都呼吁該運(yùn)河保持中立。

Any US military action would also further inflame tensions in Latin America where mass deportations have already tested Washington’s partnerships in the region.

美國(guó)的任何軍事行動(dòng)都將進(jìn)一步激化拉丁美洲的緊張局勢(shì)，大規(guī)模驅(qū)逐已經(jīng)在考驗(yàn)華盛頓在該地區(qū)的伙伴關(guān)系。

Trump’s dream of flying a US flag over the Panama Canal would come at a much higher cost than he appears to have calculated.

特朗普在巴拿馬運(yùn)河上懸掛美國(guó)國(guó)旗的夢(mèng)想，將付出的代價(jià)比他表面得出的要高得多。