Apple iPhone Price Hikes Are Now Looking Possible in the US

《蘋果iPhone美國(guó)售價(jià)或?qū)⒂瓉?lái)歷史性上調(diào)》

After years of avoiding iPhone price hikes in the US, Apple could finally be forced to to make increases. Also: The iPhone 17’s design takes shape; the company’s smart home hub remains in flux; and the first iOS 18.5 beta version is released ahead of WWDC.

導(dǎo)語(yǔ)：在多年維持美國(guó)市場(chǎng)iPhone售價(jià)不變后，蘋果或終因關(guān)稅壓力被迫提價(jià)。本期同時(shí)聚焦iPhone 17設(shè)計(jì)雛形、智能家居中樞進(jìn)展懸而未決，以及iOS 18.5首個(gè)測(cè)試版于WWDC前夕發(fā)布。


Last week in Power On: Apple readies its biggest health push yet with a new AI doctor and revamped app.
In a technology world marked by constant upheaval, one thing has remained consistent in recent years: Apple Inc.’s US iPhone prices.

《Power On》欄目上周報(bào)道：蘋果正籌備其史上最大健康領(lǐng)域布局，推出全新AI醫(yī)生功能并全面升級(jí)健康應(yīng)用。
在技術(shù)行業(yè)持續(xù)動(dòng)蕩的背景下，蘋果公司近年來(lái)在美國(guó)的iPhone定價(jià)策略始終如一。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Since the debut of the iPhone X in 2017, Apple hasn’t increased the starting price of its flagship model from $999. There have been smaller adjustments, such as tweaking the amount charged for storage and introducing larger models like the 11 Pro and 12 Pro Max. In 2023, for instance, Apple enacted a quasi price increase with the iPhone 15: It boosted the starting price of the Pro Max version by $100 by eliminating the lowest capacity option.

自2017年iPhone X問(wèn)世以來(lái)，蘋果的旗艦機(jī)型起售價(jià)始終錨定999美元。期間雖有小幅調(diào)整，例如存儲(chǔ)容量定價(jià)策略變化，或推出更大尺寸的11 Pro、12 Pro Max等機(jī)型，但基礎(chǔ)價(jià)位巋然不動(dòng)。以2023年為例，蘋果借iPhone 15實(shí)施了"隱形漲價(jià)"：取消Pro Max最低容量版本，變相將起售價(jià)抬高100美元。

Now, with tariffs hitting Apple’s major sources of production, the specter of a price increase is back in a big way. And that’s raising the question of how large such a hike might be — and how consumers would feel about it.

如今，隨著美國(guó)關(guān)稅政策直擊蘋果核心生產(chǎn)基地，漲價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以更大規(guī)模卷土重來(lái)。這引發(fā)了關(guān)鍵疑問(wèn)：漲幅幾何？消費(fèi)者將作何反應(yīng)？

Of course, many shoppers buy phones using installment plans and trade-in programs, so the list price is less relevant. But there’s still the issue of sticker shock. The current $999 level is a psychological threshold that many consumers probably don’t want to cross.

盡管許多消費(fèi)者通過(guò)分期付款或以舊換新計(jì)劃購(gòu)機(jī)，標(biāo)價(jià)敏感度相對(duì)降低，但心理閾值仍不可忽視。當(dāng)前999美元的定價(jià)正是一道心理門檻，多數(shù)消費(fèi)者恐怕不愿輕易逾越。

That’s why Apple has tried so hard to hang on to that starting price. When Donald Trump imposed tariffs during his first term, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook convinced the president to exempt the iPhone. Apple also took steps to diversity its supply chain away from China, aiming to insulate itself from trade disputes with that country. That led to new production lines in India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brazil and Thailand.

這正是蘋果竭力維持該價(jià)位的原因：特朗普首任期內(nèi)加征關(guān)稅時(shí)，CEO蒂姆·庫(kù)克成功游說(shuō)將iPhone排除在清單之外；同時(shí)加速供應(yīng)鏈"去中國(guó)化"，在印度、越南、馬來(lái)西亞、巴西、泰國(guó)開辟新產(chǎn)線。

When Covid hit in 2020, the diversification efforts sped up. The global pandemic — and manufacturing line shutdowns — made it painfully obvious that building everything in one place wasn’t the best idea. Then there was the toll from US inflation, but Apple held firm to its pricing strategy.

2020年新冠疫情爆發(fā)后，供應(yīng)鏈多元化進(jìn)程加速。全球停工潮殘酷揭示過(guò)度集中生產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，疊加美國(guó)通脹壓力，蘋果仍堅(jiān)守定價(jià)策略。

The latest tariffs promise to be the biggest test yet — especially because they go beyond China and extend to the very countries Apple has been shifting toward. As I detailed in a story this past week, these production hubs are all getting hit by the new tariffs:

最新關(guān)稅政策或成迄今最大挑戰(zhàn)——因?yàn)槠洳粌H針對(duì)中國(guó)，更延伸至蘋果重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移的"替代"生產(chǎn)國(guó)。據(jù)筆者本周報(bào)道，這些新興制造中心均遭重?fù)簦?/b>
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


India, where Apple is increasingly building iPhones and AirPods, will have a 26% tariff.
Vietnam, where the company now makes some AirPods, iPads, Apple Watches and Macs, will be hit with a 46% levy.
Malaysia, where Apple is increasingly producing Macs, will have a 24% tariff.
Thailand, where the company also makes some Macs, will get a 37% levy.
Ireland, within the European unx, gets a 20% tariff. Apple produces some iMacs there.
Indonesia, which will soon begin making AirTags and mesh for the AirPods Max headphones, gets a 32% tariff.

印度（iPhone、AirPods產(chǎn)能持續(xù)提升）：26%關(guān)稅
越南（AirPods、iPad、Apple Watch、Mac部分產(chǎn)線）：46%關(guān)稅
馬來(lái)西亞（Mac產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)大）：24%關(guān)稅
泰國(guó)（部分Mac生產(chǎn)）：37%關(guān)稅
愛爾蘭（部分iMac生產(chǎn)）：20%關(guān)稅
印尼（即將投產(chǎn)AirTag及AirPods Max組件）：32%關(guān)稅

The latest tariffs will be 34% for China, bringing its total level to 54%. But the overall picture suggests Apple isn’t going to get as much benefit as hoped from diversifying away from that country. Apple will still be taking a hit on iPhones made in India, AirPods made in Vietnam and Macs made elsewhere in Asia.

中國(guó)關(guān)稅稅率雖升至34%（疊加既有稅率后達(dá)54%），但整體來(lái)看，蘋果供應(yīng)鏈多元化帶來(lái)的緩沖效應(yīng)恐不及預(yù)期。印度產(chǎn)iPhone、越南產(chǎn)AirPods及亞洲其他地區(qū)Mac仍將承受沖擊。

There is still a chance that Cook can secure some sort of exemption or that the countries themselves will negotiate better terms. But assuming the levies are fully in place by April 9 as planned, Apple will have a big decision to make: Will it eat the costs of the tariffs, push suppliers to reduce prices, pass on the expense to customers or make further supply chain adjustments? My bet is that Apple will do a combination of all four.

當(dāng)然，庫(kù)克仍有可能爭(zhēng)取到某種關(guān)稅豁免權(quán)，或相關(guān)國(guó)家通過(guò)談判達(dá)成更優(yōu)惠條款。但若按計(jì)劃在4月9日全面實(shí)施關(guān)稅，蘋果將面臨重大抉擇：是自行消化關(guān)稅成本、施壓供應(yīng)商降價(jià)、將費(fèi)用轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者，還是進(jìn)一步調(diào)整供應(yīng)鏈？筆者認(rèn)為將多管齊下：

Here’s how things are likely to play out:
For one, you can bet that the company’s procurement teams are pushing component makers and manufacturing partners to offer better pricing. That could help preserve profit margins.
Second, I would imagine Apple is prepared to eat a small percentage of the costs. With a typical hardware margin of around 45%, it has some room to play with if needed.
Third, while the company is still in assessment mode, I expect that Apple will seriously consider iPhone price adjustments. It helps that consumers have probably heard about the outside factors here and won’t see it as a cash grab.
Finally, it’s likely that Apple will pursue further supply chain changes. That probably won’t involve a full-scale return to US manufacturing, but the company will try to make itself less vulnerable to tariffs.

以下是可能的發(fā)展走向：
1、采購(gòu)團(tuán)隊(duì)強(qiáng)力施壓零部件制造商和制造合作伙伴給出更優(yōu)惠報(bào)價(jià)，以此維持利潤(rùn)率。
2、有限成本自擔(dān)：擇自行消化部分成本，其硬件業(yè)務(wù)通常保持約45%的利潤(rùn)率，必要時(shí)有讓利空間。
3、盡管仍在評(píng)估階段，但蘋果應(yīng)會(huì)認(rèn)真考慮調(diào)整iPhone定價(jià)。好消息是消費(fèi)者已了解外部因素影響，不會(huì)視此為趁機(jī)斂財(cái)。
4、蘋果大概率將進(jìn)一步調(diào)整供應(yīng)鏈。雖不至于全面回歸美國(guó)制造，但必將設(shè)法降低對(duì)關(guān)稅的敏感度。

The company has taken another step to soften the blow. Along with many peers, Apple has been stocking up on inventory stateside for months in anticipation of the tariffs. Units already on US land aren’t subject to the levies. That means Apple theoretically could hold off until the next iPhones in September to make adjustments, if it ultimately does so. The main drawback there is that the company risks making the price hikes the news — rather than its hardware upgrades.

蘋果公司近期采取了多項(xiàng)措施以緩解關(guān)稅沖擊。與許多同行一樣，蘋果已提前數(shù)月在美國(guó)囤積庫(kù)存以應(yīng)對(duì)潛在關(guān)稅（根據(jù)規(guī)定，已進(jìn)入美國(guó)境內(nèi)的商品不受新關(guān)稅限制）。理論上，這使蘋果能夠推遲至今年9月發(fā)布新款iPhone時(shí)再調(diào)整定價(jià)策略，但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于"漲價(jià)"可能成為輿論焦點(diǎn)，而非產(chǎn)品升級(jí)本身。

Critically, while the diversification efforts aren’t the magic pill Apple had imagined, the tariff numbers outside of China are still an improvement. For instance, the tariff on iPhones exported from India is about half of the proposed levy on China. That’s why Apple will increasingly prioritize iPhones from the India supply chain for its US channels. And while the proposed levy on Vietnam is a whopping 46%, the large number of units that Apple produces still makes that considerably more favorable than the 54% on Chinese goods.

盡管供應(yīng)鏈多元化成效未達(dá)預(yù)期，但中國(guó)以外地區(qū)的關(guān)稅仍具相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)。例如，印度產(chǎn)iPhone的關(guān)稅稅率約為中國(guó)的一半，越南產(chǎn)iPhone則面臨46%的高額關(guān)稅，但仍優(yōu)于中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的54%。因此，蘋果正優(yōu)先將印度供應(yīng)鏈生產(chǎn)的iPhone投入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。

If you were to go into the back room of a US Apple retail store today and examine the device boxes, you’re going to see a lot of inventory made in China. But there are increasingly also iPhones made in India, iPads, Apple Watches and AirPods made in Vietnam, and Macs made in Thailand and Vietnam. Over the next several months, you’ll begin to see even more of that diversification in response to the tariffs.

如今走進(jìn)美國(guó)蘋果店倉(cāng)庫(kù)，中國(guó)制造的設(shè)備仍占主流，但印度產(chǎn)iPhone、越南產(chǎn)iPad/Apple Watch/AirPods、以及泰國(guó)和越南產(chǎn)Mac設(shè)備的比例正在增加。未來(lái)數(shù)月，關(guān)稅驅(qū)動(dòng)下的多元化將更為顯著。

Regardless, make no mistake: Apple hasn’t been afraid to boost prices elsewhere in response to new tax policies, currency fluctuations and inflation. It increased iPhone prices in Japan in 2022, for instance, due to the weakening yen. That same year, prices of iPads and other products went up in Europe and the UK in response to inflation. There was a post-Brexit hike in the UK as well, sending the costs of Macs up significantly.

面對(duì)新稅政、匯率波動(dòng)與通脹，蘋果在其他市場(chǎng)從不吝于提價(jià)：2022年日元貶值致日本iPhone漲價(jià)；同年歐洲及英國(guó)因通脹上調(diào)iPad等產(chǎn)品售價(jià)；英國(guó)脫歐后Mac價(jià)格顯著攀升。

As for supply chain changes, the best strategy in the long run is to have decentralized production hubs in all of the major areas Apple operates in. Brazil and India could serve as models for this approach. Supplier Foxconn Technology Group has been producing more iPhones there, letting Apple avoid the countries’ tariffs.

蘋果的終極目標(biāo)是建立去中心化的區(qū)域生產(chǎn)樞紐。巴西和印度是這一模式的試驗(yàn)田：富士康已在兩地?cái)U(kuò)大iPhone生產(chǎn)，以規(guī)避關(guān)稅。

Increasing Brazilian production could be a balm for Trump’s levies as well, since the president has only slapped a 10% tariff on exports from there. But the Brazil manufacturing lines are miniscule compared with the ones in Asia, so such a plan would require a hefty expansion. There are also questions about Brazil’s ability to produce the more complex iPhone Pro models. So far, it’s focused on the entry-level versions.

特朗普政府對(duì)巴西出口僅征收10%關(guān)稅，可能成為緩解壓力的突破口，但巴西產(chǎn)能遠(yuǎn)不及亞洲，且難以生產(chǎn)高端Pro機(jī)型，目前僅聚焦入門級(jí)產(chǎn)品。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


A less painful outcome would be for countries like Vietnam and Thailand to negotiate with Trump and get him to pull back his measures. Already, there are signs that the countries will play ball with the president. Perhaps even China will eventually work out a compromise with the administration.

較溫和的解決方案是越南、泰國(guó)等國(guó)與特朗普政府談判降低關(guān)稅。已有跡象顯示相關(guān)國(guó)家愿配合，甚至中國(guó)或最終達(dá)成妥協(xié)。

In any case, there’s little chance that a company like Apple can uproot its manufacturing and return to the US in the next few years. If management truly wants to have meaningful domestic production of the iPhone, it would take at least half a decade to get up and running. And that’s not to mention the impact on iPhone prices. The move would potentially double the cost of Apple devices, a catastrophic development for the company and consumers.

但蘋果未來(lái)數(shù)年將制造重心遷回美國(guó)幾無(wú)可能，如果真要推進(jìn)，需至少五年籌備，且設(shè)備成本也可能翻倍，對(duì)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者均屬災(zāi)難。

Apple has made grand gestures about investing more in the US, including a February announcement of $500 billion in expenditures during the next four years. But that wasn’t a whole lot more than what Apple had already planned to spend. Cook even showed up to Trump’s inauguration and threw in a cool $1 million to get on the president’s good side. None of this seems to have dissuaded Trump from the tariff plans, which may not bode well for Apple’s efforts to quash a Justice Department lawsuit and fend off regulatory pressure in the EU.

蘋果雖高調(diào)宣示加碼美國(guó)投資（包括2月宣布未來(lái)四年投入5000億美元），但這與既定計(jì)劃相差無(wú)幾。庫(kù)克曾出席特朗普就職典禮并豪擲百萬(wàn)美元示好，卻未能阻止關(guān)稅計(jì)劃，這對(duì)蘋果應(yīng)對(duì)司法部訴訟及歐盟監(jiān)管壓力的努力亦非吉兆。

All this makes little difference for consumers, who are mainly wondering if they’ll have to pay more for an iPhone this fall. On that front, Apple could get more aggressive on trade-in specials and installment plans. The company might even consider reviving its plan for a hardware subscxtion service. If this new world order is indeed here to stay, Apple at least has many ways to cope with it.

對(duì)消費(fèi)者而言，核心問(wèn)題仍是今秋購(gòu)機(jī)是否需多掏腰包。對(duì)此，蘋果或強(qiáng)化以舊換新優(yōu)惠與分期方案，甚至重啟硬件訂閱服務(wù)。如果新關(guān)稅時(shí)代不可避免，蘋果至少有諸多應(yīng)對(duì)工具。