Nirmala Sitharaman has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the Covid-19 pandemic. The fiscal deficit in 2020-21 is likely to rise to 9.5% of GDP — with 1.5% coming from one-time transparency — making it the highest in India’s history. The 2021-22 deficit is projected to decline to 6.5%, still very high, and similar in size to India’s fiscal deficits after the 1991-92 and 2008-09 crises. Those for a larger fiscal stimulus should be happy. Will it work?

在新冠大流行期間，盡管尼馬拉·西特哈拉曼砸鍋賣(mài)鐵努力縮減財(cái)政赤字。但2020-21年的財(cái)政赤字仍然可能飆升到GDP的9.5%，印度有史以來(lái)最高的一次，按照原來(lái)的計(jì)劃財(cái)政赤字是1.5%。預(yù)計(jì)2021-22年的赤字將降至6.5%，但仍然很高，與1991-92年和2008-09年危機(jī)后的財(cái)政赤字規(guī)模相當(dāng)。那些支持更大規(guī)模財(cái)政刺激的人應(yīng)該高興了。但能否奏效還是個(gè)問(wèn)題。

The recovery, so far, has been more K- than V-shaped. With GDP growth contracting by about 15% in H1 2020-21, it must be on a substantial rebound if it is to average –8% for the entire year. Leading indicators such as electricity use, GST collections, vehicle sales, rail freight, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and e-way bills show a recovery is underway. But several key sectors such as oil and gas, cement, fertilisers, and tourism and travel are still down. And there is unevenness between corporates, MSMEs and the unorganised sector.

迄今為止，復(fù)蘇應(yīng)該是是“K”型而不是“V”型。鑒于2020-21上半年年的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)萎縮了約15%。印度經(jīng)濟(jì)必須要大幅反彈，才能使全年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率維持在-8%。印度的用電量、商品及服務(wù)稅征收、汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售、鐵路貨運(yùn)、采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)和電子賬單等主要指標(biāo)顯示，復(fù)蘇正在進(jìn)行。但石油和天然氣、水泥、化肥、旅游和旅游等幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵行業(yè)仍在下滑。公司、中小微企業(yè)和無(wú)組織部門(mén)之間也存在不平衡。

The unemployment rate has improved, but employment remains below pre-pandemic levels. The huge increase in demand for MGNREGA work in 2020-21 shows the impact on livelihoods has been huge, with 80-100 million people projected to fall back into poverty. Will the budget nurture and widen the recovery? With projected real GDP growth of over 10% in 2021-22, India’s GDP would go back to pre-pandemic levels. To achieve this, the budget puts large sums into capital expenditure — an increase from 12.5% pre-Covid to 16% for 2021-22. Even if the entire increase is not genuine capital expenditure — for instance, some of the expenditure on railways and in Food Corporation of India (FCI) — there is an upward trajectory. If this money is directed towards shovel-ready projects in the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), it could have large multiplier effects.

印度的失業(yè)率雖然有所改善，但就業(yè)率仍低于新冠大流行前的水平。2020年至2021年間，小額信貸和小額贈(zèng)款需求大幅度增加，這表明印度人民的生計(jì)受到了巨大影響，預(yù)計(jì)將有8 000萬(wàn)至1億人重返貧困。新的預(yù)算是否會(huì)促進(jìn)和擴(kuò)大經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇?預(yù)計(jì)2021-22年印度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長(zhǎng)率將超過(guò)10%，印度的GDP總值將恢復(fù)到新冠大流行前的水平。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，新的財(cái)政預(yù)算將大量資金投入資本支出—，從新冠大流行前的12.5%增加到2021-22年的16%。整個(gè)增長(zhǎng)中非資本支出部分——例如，鐵路和印度食品公司(FCI)的部分支出——也上升的趨勢(shì)。如果這筆錢(qián)被用于國(guó)家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施管道(NIP)的現(xiàn)成項(xiàng)目，它可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)。

More money for completion of unfinished projects should also be a priority. But with elections looming in Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry, a large share will end up in new projects in these states and unx territory. Badly hit sectors like real estate, travel and tourism have not been given any specific help.

將更多資金用于未完成的項(xiàng)目也是一個(gè)優(yōu)先考慮事項(xiàng)。但是隨著阿薩姆邦、泰米爾納德邦、西孟加拉邦和普杜切里邦的選舉迫在眉睫，很大一部分資金將最終用于這些邦和邦領(lǐng)地的新項(xiàng)目中。房地產(chǎn)、旅游和旅游等遭受重創(chuàng)的行業(yè)沒(méi)有得到任何實(shí)質(zhì)性幫助。

In a higher orbit

更高的眼界
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To help finance higher capital expenditure, divestment — called ‘privatisation’ for the first time — remains on the agenda. GoI should take a leaf out of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s book and set up a separate ministry, with a five-year plan for it, instead of yearly targets.

為了籌集更多的資本支出，資產(chǎn)剝離——首次被稱(chēng)為“私有化”——仍在議事日程上。印度政府應(yīng)該學(xué)習(xí)前總理阿塔爾·比哈里·瓦杰帕伊的著作，成立一個(gè)獨(dú)立的部委，并為其制定“五年計(jì)劃”，而不是“年度目標(biāo)”。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Monetisation of assets is another large source of financing proposed, especially if the agency whose assets are involved shares in its proceeds. But transparency will be important, so that it all does not end up in the hands of cronies.

提議的另一大融資來(lái)源是資產(chǎn)貨幣化，尤其是資產(chǎn)涉及的機(jī)構(gòu)將分享其收益。但透明度就變得重要，這樣才不會(huì)讓一切都落入親信之手。

With capacity utilisation improving, but still at levels close to 50-60%, India is unlikely to see immediate recovery in private investment. But along with public infrastructure that can crowd in private investment, the production-lixed incentive (PLI) scheme, if implemented smartly and lixed to state-level initiatives, could draw in new investment. A development finance institution (DFI) to provide long-term finance is provisioned for, but will need professional management.

產(chǎn)能利用率有所提高，但仍處于50-60%的水平，印度私人投資不太可能立即復(fù)蘇。但是，除了可以吸引私人投資的公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施之外，與生產(chǎn)掛鉤的激勵(lì)計(jì)劃(PLI)如果實(shí)施得當(dāng)，并與國(guó)家層面的激勵(lì)措施掛鉤，可能會(huì)吸引新的投資。提供長(zhǎng)期融資的開(kāi)發(fā)金融機(jī)構(gòu)(DFI)已準(zhǔn)備就緒，但需要專(zhuān)業(yè)管理。

Delaying financial sector clean-up is the surest way to a weak recovery. The elephant in the room is rising non-performing assets (NPAs), projected by RBI to reach almost 14% by June 2021. The announcement, finally, of a ‘bad bank’ is recognition that the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) process takes too long for resolution of systemic NPAs. Announcing the privatisation of two State banks is the first signal of reversing bank nationalisation of 1969. But one hopes these are not just cleaned up and sold to corporates.

推遲金融部門(mén)的清理是解決復(fù)蘇乏力的最可靠途徑。不斷上升的不良資產(chǎn)(NPA)如房間里的大象一般顯而易見(jiàn)，印度央行預(yù)計(jì)到2021年6月不良資產(chǎn)將達(dá)到近14%。最后，政府宣布“壞銀行”便是認(rèn)識(shí)到《破產(chǎn)和破產(chǎn)法》(IBC)程序花費(fèi)了太長(zhǎng)時(shí)間來(lái)解決系統(tǒng)性不良資產(chǎn)。宣布兩家國(guó)有銀行轉(zhuǎn)為私有化，也是扭轉(zhuǎn)1969年銀行國(guó)有化的第一個(gè)信號(hào)。但人們希望這些銀行不是簡(jiǎn)單地被清理并出售給企業(yè)。

High priority has been given to healthcare, with an increase of 37% over the previous budget. Half of this will go towards vaccination, with more to come if needed. If India can vaccinate its entire 1.4 billion population in 2021-22, it will have a huge impact on lives and livelihoods. State governments should follow this lead.

醫(yī)療保健得到高度重視，較上次預(yù)算增加了37%。其中一半將用于疫苗接種，如果有需要還會(huì)有更多預(yù)算。如果印度能夠在2021-22年為其全部14億人口接種疫苗，將對(duì)印度人生活和生計(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。邦政府應(yīng)該效仿這種做法。

The budget relies on recovery to help the poor. But employment will not recover as quickly as GDP. Cash transfers, even small amounts, would have helped below-poverty-line (BPL) families. Free food rations to BPL families should also have been continued for another six months and the MGNREGA budget allocation in 2021-22 may have to be increased if the demand for jobs remains. ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ for migrants should be expedited, and will encourage migrants to return.

財(cái)政預(yù)算促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，從而幫助窮人。但是就業(yè)不可能像GDP恢復(fù)得那么快。現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移，即使數(shù)額很小，也能幫助貧困線(xiàn)以下(BPL)的家庭。向貧困線(xiàn)一下的家庭提供的免費(fèi)食物的政策也應(yīng)該再持續(xù)六個(gè)月。為保障工作的需求，2021-2022年印度政府的為全國(guó)農(nóng)村就業(yè)保障法的預(yù)算撥款必須增加。流動(dòng)性季節(jié)工的“一個(gè)國(guó)家，一張配給卡”政策也應(yīng)該加快實(shí)施，并鼓勵(lì)流動(dòng)性季節(jié)工返。

As strong as the lix

像鏈條一樣強(qiáng)大

By continuing down the path of further import protection, questions on ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ will remain. With compressed domestic demand and a robust global recovery underway, an export push would have been the way to ensure faster recovery. Instead of textile parks, export processing zones (EPZs) and port-led development to attract FDI in labour-intensive exports may give India a better way to enter global value chains (GVCs).

通過(guò)進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)的進(jìn)口保護(hù)措施，關(guān)于“印度自力更生”的問(wèn)題依然存在。隨著國(guó)內(nèi)需求萎縮和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，出口推動(dòng)將是確保印度經(jīng)濟(jì)更快復(fù)蘇的必要途徑。出口加工區(qū)（EPZs）和港口帶動(dòng)發(fā)展，吸引外國(guó)直接投資（FDI）進(jìn)入勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)出口，而不只是紡織園區(qū)，將會(huì)給印度提供一個(gè)更好的途徑進(jìn)入全球價(jià)值鏈（GVCs）。

The ‘Spend and Grow Budget’ has its risks. With a public debt-to-GDP ratio close to 90%, it takes on huge increases in public debt, but does not grow as rapidly as projected. The huge lifeline the FM has thrown may then pull India overboard and into dangerous waters. But the intent to grow our way out of this crisis is the right one. It had to be taken.

“支出與增長(zhǎng)預(yù)算”有其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。公共債務(wù)與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比率已接近90%，公共債務(wù)大幅增加，但增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)低于預(yù)期。財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)拋出的巨大救生索可能會(huì)將印度拖離船外，進(jìn)入危險(xiǎn)水域。但是，我們走出這場(chǎng)危機(jī)的意圖是正確的，也必須有所行動(dòng)。