UK’s Brexit losses more than 178 times bigger than trade deal gains
-All trade deals combined worth less than 50p per person a year, analysis of government figures shows

英國(guó)脫歐的損失超過貿(mào)易協(xié)議收益的178倍
——對(duì)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)的分析顯示，所有貿(mào)易協(xié)議加起來的價(jià)值每人每年的不到50便士



新聞：

All of Boris Johnson’s new post-Brexit trade deals put together will have an economic benefit of just ￡3 to ￡7 per person over the next 15 years, according to the government’s own figures.

根據(jù)政府自己的數(shù)據(jù)，鮑里斯·約翰遜在脫歐后簽署的所有新貿(mào)易協(xié)議加在一起，在未來15年里每人將僅獲得3至7英鎊的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。

The tiny economic boost – amounting to just 0.01 to 0.02 per cent of GDP, and less than 50p per person a year – is dwarfed by the economic hit from leaving the EU, which the government estimates at 4 per cent of GDP over the same period.

這一微小的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)——僅相當(dāng)于GDP的0.01%至0.02%，人均每年不到50便士——與脫歐帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊相比相形見絀。政府估計(jì)，同期脫歐帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊占GDP的4%。

According to analysis commissioned by The Independent from top academics at the University of Sussex UK Trade Policy Observatory, the much-trumpeted free trade agreements (FTAs) “barely scratch the surface of the UK’s challenge to make up the GDP lost by leaving the EU”.

英國(guó)《獨(dú)立報(bào)》委托英國(guó)蘇塞克斯大學(xué)貿(mào)易政策觀察中心的頂級(jí)學(xué)者進(jìn)行的分析顯示，備受吹捧的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定“僅僅是英國(guó)在彌補(bǔ)脫歐造成的GDP損失方面面臨的挑戰(zhàn)的皮毛”。

Mr Johnson has boasted of the deals creating a “new dawn” and representing “global Britain at its best” – but just two of the dozens announced since the UK left the EU are expected to have any measurable economic impact at all.

約翰遜吹噓這些協(xié)議創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)“新的黎明”，代表了“全球英國(guó)的最佳狀態(tài)”——但自英國(guó)脫歐以來宣布的數(shù)十項(xiàng)協(xié)議中，預(yù)計(jì)只有兩項(xiàng)會(huì)產(chǎn)生任何可衡量的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。

Official estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility point to a Brexit loss of more than ￡1,250 per person over the coming years – more than 178 times the most optimistic prediction for the benefits from the trade deals.

英國(guó)預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室的官方估計(jì)顯示，未來幾年，英國(guó)人均將因脫歐而損失逾1250英鎊，這是對(duì)貿(mào)易協(xié)議帶來好處的最樂觀預(yù)測(cè)的178倍以上。

The analysis notes that the vast majority of FTAs announced by the government – such as those with South Korea, Singapore, or Vietnam – are simply attempts to replace treaties that those countries have with the EU, which Britain previously enjoyed as a member.

該分析指出，政府宣布的絕大多數(shù)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，如與韓國(guó)、新加坡或越南的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，只是試圖取代這些國(guó)家已有的與歐盟的條約，而英國(guó)此前是歐盟成員國(guó)。

“They add nothing to UK trade, and, because they are not perfect replicas, actually harm it very slightly,” wrote top trade economist Professor L Alan Winters, who conducted the analysis with Guillermo Larbalestier, the centre’s research officer.

頂級(jí)貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家L·艾倫·溫特斯教授寫道：“這些協(xié)定對(duì)英國(guó)貿(mào)易沒有任何貢獻(xiàn)，而且，由于它們并非完美的復(fù)制品，實(shí)際上對(duì)英國(guó)貿(mào)易還造成了小小的損害?！睖靥厮古c該中心的研究官員吉列爾莫·拉巴萊斯提爾共同進(jìn)行了上述分析。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Labour seized on the findings and said the government had “gambled” on Britain’s prosperity and lost. The opposition called for Mr Johnson’s barebones Brexit trade deal with the EU to be improved so that the UK would “stop the haemorrhaging of our trade with Europe”.

工黨抓住調(diào)查結(jié)果不放，說政府在英國(guó)的繁榮上“賭博”，結(jié)果賭輸了。反對(duì)派呼吁完善約翰遜與歐盟達(dá)成的基本脫歐貿(mào)易協(xié)議，以“阻止英國(guó)與歐洲貿(mào)易的大出血”。

A source at the Department for International Trade claimed the analysis was based on “old, static” figures – though most of the data was released just last summer as part of the government’s strategic case for the agreements.

國(guó)際貿(mào)易部的一位消息人士稱，該分析是基于“舊的、靜態(tài)的”數(shù)據(jù)——盡管大部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)是去年夏天才發(fā)布的，作為政府協(xié)議的戰(zhàn)略理由的一部分。

“Our Global Trade Outlook – published in September – shows the centre of gravity on global trade is moving away from Europe and towards fast-growing markets in Asia-Pacific,” a spokesperson for the Department for International Trade said of the findings.

“我們9月份發(fā)布的《全球貿(mào)易展望》顯示，全球貿(mào)易的重心正從歐洲轉(zhuǎn)向亞太地區(qū)快速增長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng)，”英國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易部的一位發(fā)言人在談到調(diào)查結(jié)果時(shí)表示。

“Our strategy is latching the UK economy to these markets of tomorrow, and seizing the huge economic opportunities as an agile, independent trading nation.”

“我們的戰(zhàn)略是將英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與這些未來的市場(chǎng)掛鉤，并作為一個(gè)靈活、獨(dú)立的貿(mào)易國(guó)抓住巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)遇?！?/b>
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


But according to the analysis prepared for The Independent, even a new agreement with Japan, which the UK government has presented as a significant win that goes beyond what was agreed with the EU, is “modelled extremely closely on the EU-Japan agreement, with a few small differences”.

但根據(jù)為《獨(dú)立報(bào)》準(zhǔn)備的分析，即便是與日本達(dá)成的新協(xié)議——英國(guó)政府將其描述為超越與歐盟協(xié)議的重大勝利——也“極其接近于現(xiàn)有的歐盟-日本協(xié)議，只是存在一些小差異”。

In that case, the benefits of a minor extension on digital trade are expected to be overshadowed by a technical change to customs rules, which will put some UK exporters at a disadvantage compared to their EU counterparts.

在這種情況下，預(yù)計(jì)略微延長(zhǎng)數(shù)字貿(mào)易的好處將被關(guān)稅規(guī)則的技術(shù)變化所掩蓋，這將使一些英國(guó)出口商與歐盟同行相比處于不利地位。

Taking the EU’s own deal with Japan into account, the academics wrote: “Relative to having no agreement, the government estimated that [the Japan agreement] would raise UK GDP by ￡1.5bn (0.07 per cent, or ￡22 per head), but relative to what the UK would have had without Brexit the gains will be negligible or negative.”

考慮到歐盟自己與日本的協(xié)議，學(xué)者們寫道：“政府估計(jì)，相對(duì)于沒有協(xié)議，（與日本的協(xié)議）將使英國(guó)GDP增加15億英鎊（0.07%，即人均22英鎊），但相對(duì)于如果英國(guó)沒有脫歐而言，所獲得的收益將微不足道或?yàn)樨?fù)值?！?/b>

Only in the case of the deals in principle with Australia and New Zealand is there expected to be any new economic benefit – but these countries represent such a small part of UK trade that they have little effect. The analysis also notes that the agreements have not yet been signed or ratified and are so far just “agreements in principle”.

只有在與澳大利亞和新西蘭達(dá)成原則性協(xié)議的情況下，才有望獲得新的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益——但這些國(guó)家在英國(guó)貿(mào)易中所占比例太小，因此收效甚微。分析還指出，這些協(xié)議尚未簽署或批準(zhǔn)，到目前為止只是“原則上的協(xié)議”。

The DIT source added that the government wanted another “wave of ambitious trade deals with major economies like India, Canada, Mexico and the Gulf” – though these are yet to materialise. The government has in recent months stopped claiming it is close to a trade deal with the US – previously the biggest prize – after Donald Trump’s election defeat dashed any hope of it happening soon.

國(guó)際貿(mào)易部消息人士補(bǔ)充說，政府希望“與印度、加拿大、墨西哥和海灣等主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體達(dá)成另一波雄心勃勃的貿(mào)易協(xié)議”，盡管這些協(xié)議尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)。在唐納德·特朗普競(jìng)選失敗后，政府在最近幾個(gè)月里不再聲稱即將與美國(guó)達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)議——此前這才是最大的戰(zhàn)利品——因?yàn)檫@一協(xié)議很快達(dá)成的希望破滅了。

But the UK Trade Policy Observatory academics dismissed the idea that trade agreements could ever conceivably counteract the economic damage of Brexit.

但英國(guó)貿(mào)易政策觀察組織的學(xué)者駁斥了貿(mào)易協(xié)定可能會(huì)抵消英國(guó)脫歐造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損害的觀點(diǎn)。

“Non-EU partners account for about half of UK total trade and so, to counteract the OBR’s 4 per cent loss from Brexit, would require agreements with each and every one of them to induce trade changes that create a 4 per cent increment to UK GDP. That is nowhere in sight in the numbers in the table,” they wrote.

“非歐盟伙伴約占英國(guó)貿(mào)易總額的一半，因此，為了抵消英國(guó)退歐給預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室?guī)淼?%的損失，需要與每一個(gè)非歐盟伙伴達(dá)成協(xié)議，促使貿(mào)易變化，為英國(guó)GDP帶來4%的增長(zhǎng)?！边@在表格中的數(shù)字中是看不到的。

“The sad answer is that the government is happy to accept, on our behalf, the economic losses from Brexit in return for political benefits (sovereignty), and trade agreements with other countries are merely making the best of a bad job from an economic perspective.”

“可悲的答案是，政府很開心地代表我們接受英國(guó)脫歐帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，以換取政治利益（主權(quán)），而與其他國(guó)家的貿(mào)易協(xié)議從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來看只是在把糟糕的工作做得最好?！?/b>

Emily Thornberry, the shadow international trade secretary, told The Independent: “The government’s great economic gamble has been that we could make up for the losses created by their botched Brexit deal by increasing our trade with the rest of the world.

英國(guó)影子內(nèi)閣國(guó)際貿(mào)易大臣艾米莉·索恩伯里告訴《獨(dú)立報(bào)》：“政府最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)賭博是，我們可以通過增加與世界其他地區(qū)的貿(mào)易，來彌補(bǔ)英國(guó)拙劣的脫歐協(xié)議造成的損失。

“But what this analysis shows is that – even according to the government’s own figures – that gamble was always doomed to fail.

“但這一分析表明，即使根據(jù)政府自己的數(shù)據(jù)，這場(chǎng)賭博也注定要失敗。

“It is time for a change of course. The government cannot continue ploughing on with a policy that isn’t working; we need action instead to stop the haemorrhaging of our trade with Europe, and fix the holes in the Brexit deal.”

“現(xiàn)在是改變路線的時(shí)候了。政府不能繼續(xù)推行一項(xiàng)不起作用的政策；相反，我們需要采取行動(dòng)，阻止我們與歐洲的貿(mào)易大出血，并修補(bǔ)英國(guó)脫歐協(xié)議中的漏洞。”