印度是否正在走向中等收入陷阱?
Is India heading towards a middle income trap?譯文簡介
我在這里的一篇帖子上看到一條評論,說印度有可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”
正文翻譯
Is India heading towards a middle income trap?
印度是否正在走向中等收入陷阱?
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There seems to be indicators pointing both ways. On one hand, we have a rapidly ballooning consumer culture with a young population with discretionary income, and with EMIs for various products which helps people to buy stuff they desire. India is considered an emerging market by many corporations. We have a huge population which acts as both a consumer and a labor force. All good signs of a strong economy and potential to become a more developed or industrialized country.
On the other hand, many manufacturing industries which were anticipated to move to India after leaving China instead seem to be setting up in other South East Asian countries instead. There is still brain drain with top talent leaving for greener pastures, climate change is alleged to cause massive disruptions in the near future, and only a few tier-1 cities bearing the brunt of a population migrating into urban areas. From what I have read, having an innovative and diverse industrial economy is necessary to avoid the middle-income trap. We have great talent in this country but due to various factors like brain drain, no funding and low ease of doing business, innovation is not growing at an optimal pace.
I am no economist and this is simply what I have gleaned from what I have read. So, what do you guys think of this?
我在這里的一篇帖子上看到一條評論,說印度有可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”。遺憾的是,我找不到這篇文章或評論了,無法向他們詢問更多相關(guān)信息。
似乎有一些指標(biāo)指向兩個方向。一方面,我們有迅速膨脹的消費文化,有可自由支配收入的年輕人口,有各種產(chǎn)品的 EMI,這有助于人們購買他們想要的東西。印度被許多公司視為新興市場。印度人口眾多,既是消費者又是勞動力。這些都是經(jīng)濟強勁的良好跡象,也是印度成為更發(fā)達或工業(yè)化國家的潛力所在。
另一方面,許多原本預(yù)計離開中國后會轉(zhuǎn)移到印度的制造業(yè),似乎都轉(zhuǎn)而在其他東南亞國家落戶。人才外流現(xiàn)象依然存在,頂尖人才紛紛前往更廣闊的天地,氣候變化據(jù)稱將在不久的將來造成大規(guī)模破壞,只有少數(shù)一線城市能承受人口向城市地區(qū)遷移的影響。據(jù)我所知,要避免陷入中等收入陷阱,就必須擁有創(chuàng)新和多元化的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟。我們國家人才濟濟,但由于人才流失、缺乏資金和經(jīng)商便利性低等各種因素,創(chuàng)新的發(fā)展速度并不理想。
我不是經(jīng)濟學(xué)家,這只是我從閱讀中總結(jié)出來的。你們對此有何看法?
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Most of our people are poor or the poorest you will ever find ,visit some of our villages if you are in a metro or a city you have no idea how poor our people are. Please don’t read some stupid posts on social media or mainstream media .everyone is chest thumping in media it’s all fluff there..
我們大多數(shù)人都很窮,或者是你所見過的最窮的人,如果你身處大都市或城市,你根本不知道我們的人民有多窮。請不要在社交媒體或主流媒體上閱讀一些愚蠢的帖子,每個人都在媒體上表現(xiàn)得信心爆棚,但都是些廢話。
The algorithms in social media makes it impossible to. It's designed to curate content for you and results in echo chambers to show you the world as you want.
社交媒體的算法讓我們無法做到這一點。它旨在為你策劃內(nèi)容,形成回聲室,向你展示你想要的世界。
Could not agree more we should encourage our family and friends to use brains more than rely on algorithms I am shocked at how my friends and family falls for the stupidity that these algorithms produce .
再同意不過,我們應(yīng)該鼓勵我們的家人和朋友更多地使用大腦而不是依賴算法,我對我的朋友和家人如何陷入這些算法產(chǎn)生的愚蠢感到震驚。
Let us first reach middle income country status then we can worry about middle income trap lol. As of now we are still a low middle income country bunched with the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya etc.
讓我們先達到中等收入國家的地位,然后再擔(dān)心中等收入陷阱吧哈哈。到目前為止,我們?nèi)匀皇且粋€中低收入國家,與巴基斯坦、孟加拉國、肯尼亞等國并列。
Came here to say exactly this. Some of our states are also on par with Sub Saharan and war ravaged African countries
點進來就是想說這個。我們的一些邦也與撒哈拉以南和飽受戰(zhàn)爭蹂躪的非洲國家不相上下
It's not a sin to be in poverty, but half of the population here has an ego complex that they're living in a "superpower". That for me, is personally much more egregious.
I met many people from Africa and ME during my stays overseas and all of them openly talked about the problems that existed in their countries. Desi unkills overseas with American and EU passport get so triggered even if you lay out a couple of basic facts about the situation back home.
貧窮并不是罪過,但這里一半的人口有一種自負心態(tài),認為他們生活在“超級大國”中。對我個人而言,這實在令人震驚。
我在海外期間遇到了很多來自非洲和中東的人,他們都會公開談?wù)撟约簢掖嬖诘膯栴}。但是即使你列出了有關(guān)國內(nèi)情況的一些基本事實,持美國和歐盟護照的在海外的印度裔也會暴跳如雷。
The cheap internet was a huge mistake.
廉價的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)是一個巨大的錯誤。
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Without cheap Internet us Indian people would've hid the problems even better. Just play a random YT street food video from India to get a sampling of the noise pollution, disorder, filth, lack of basic infra, etc. Somebody's taking notice.
如果沒有廉價的互聯(lián)網(wǎng),我們印度人會把問題隱藏得更深。只要在 YT 上隨便播放一段印度的街頭美食視頻,就能了解印度的噪音污染、混亂、骯臟、缺乏基本基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等問題。已經(jīng)有人注意到了。
Lol, mass delusion. India ain't even a regional power. If nukes make a country super power, then Pakistan is a superpower too.
哈哈,群體幻覺。印度連地區(qū)大國都算不上。如果核武器能讓一個國家成為超級大國,那么巴基斯坦也是超級大國了。
It wasn't like that before 2014
2014年之前可不是這樣的
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Puducherry
I don't know where you saw this. I admit our problems, many do. The people who boast are a minority.
我不知道你是在哪里看到的這些評論。我承認我們的問題,很多人都是如此??淇诘娜水吘故巧贁?shù)。
Perhaps it is because you live in Puducherry. People in South are more realistic, I guess. The mid and Northern part of the country do indeed boast all the time.
也許是因為你住在本地治里。我覺得南方人比較現(xiàn)實。我們中部和北部地區(qū)的人確實一直在夸夸其談。
India is technically "lower middle income" but World Bank standards, so in some ways its already reached Middle Income status. So India is definitely out of the "dysfunctional basket case" league of nations, lol. If India can get to $4,000 GDP per capita, it'll be "upper middle income". $12,000 GDP per capita is what is necessary to break into the lowest ranks of high income. India is currently $2,200.
I think it highly probably India will get to high middle income. Because of its size though, I'm suspicious that it'll cleanly make it into high income any time soon. Instead, what we'll likely see is pockets of India that are high income and high tech with other pockets being stuck in lower middle income status that are left behind. In fact, this has already happened in some ways. So for instance, Bangalore has a GDP per capita of $25,000, 10x higher than the national average. So I'd expect more of these high income pockets in the future while other parts of the nation remain stagnant.
從技術(shù)上講,印度屬于“中低收入國家”,但按照世界銀行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),在某些方面它已經(jīng)達到了中等收入國家的地位。所以印度肯定已經(jīng)脫離了“功能失調(diào)國際聯(lián)盟”,哈哈。如果印度的人均GDP能夠達到4000美元,那就是“中上收入”了。人均GDP達到12000美元是躋身最低高收入行列的必要條件。印度目前為 2200 美元。
我認為印度很有可能進入高中等收入國家。但由于我們的規(guī)模,我不看好能干凈利落地成為高收入國家。相反,我們可能會看到印度的一些地區(qū)成為高收入和高科技地區(qū),而其他地區(qū)則陷入中低收入狀態(tài),被拋在后面。事實上,這在某些方面已經(jīng)發(fā)生了。例如,班加羅爾的人均 GDP 為 25000 美元,比全國平均水平高出 10 倍。因此,我預(yù)計未來會有更多的高收入群體出現(xiàn),而其他地區(qū)仍處于停滯狀態(tài)。
I doubt bengalore is at 25,000$. Pockets of it may be.
And upper middle income level isn't really that bad. People in Indonesia, Thailand have an ok life, not too bad. If we can reach that level by 2030 I'll be content.
我對班加羅爾的人均有 25000 美元表示懷疑??赡苤皇沁@個數(shù)字的一小部分。
中上收入水平其實并沒有那么糟糕。印度尼西亞、泰國人民的生活還不錯,不算太糟糕。如果我們能在 2030 年達到這個水平,我就很滿足了。
Middle income trap..bruh we are a low income country and parts of UP and Bihar are Sub-Saharan Africa
中等收入陷阱...噗,我們是一個低收入國家,北方邦和比哈爾邦的部分地區(qū)和撒哈拉以南非洲沒什么兩樣
Our consumerism is nowhere there. We’re still a poor nation per capita.
什么消費主義,根本不存在。按人均計算,我們?nèi)匀皇且粋€貧窮國家。
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We are not even middle income yet and this bhaisaab is worried about middle income trap
我們還不是中等收入,這位老哥就開始擔(dān)心中等收入陷阱了
Our country should be happy if it can indeed get into the middle income trap. We are one of the poorest countries in the world.
如果我們的國家確實能夠邁入中等收入陷阱,那我們應(yīng)該感到高興。我們是世界上最貧窮的國家之一。
Middle income trap? We have more poverty than Sub-Saharan Africa, less rank in HDI than places like Venezuela, El Salvador, Iraq, Iran, Tajikistan. With all these communal tensions, lack of investment in infrastructure, declining economy, I doubt that we'd ever even get out of the current situation we're in.
中等收入陷阱?我們的貧困程度高于撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū),人類發(fā)展指數(shù)排名低于委內(nèi)瑞拉、薩爾瓦多、伊拉克、伊朗、塔吉克斯坦等地。由于所有這些社區(qū)緊張局勢、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資不足、經(jīng)濟衰退,我甚至懷疑我們能否擺脫目前的困境。
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An avg Indian will think that s/he is living as middle class watching all those YouTube videos and short form content but they all are not middle class. If your income is between 9lpa and 30lpa then you are middle class which is only 2-5% of population.
一個普通的印度人看了那些 YouTube 視頻和短視頻內(nèi)容,會以為自己是中產(chǎn)階級,但其實他們都不是中產(chǎn)階級。如果你的收入在 9lpa 到 30lpa 之間,那么你就是中產(chǎn)階級,而中產(chǎn)階級只占人口的 2-5%。
(注:lpa是印度薪資的一種計算方式)
Middle-income trap happens when your population grows old before making it to developed status. As long as you maintain a 1.9-2.1 fertility rate you will never fall into a middle-income trap, because you always have another shot at industrialization or another way of getting rich.
Malaysia is already a developed nation. Turkey is almost a developed country, and its fertility rate is 1.9.
Countries like Lebanon or Thailand are in the middle-income trap.
中等收入陷阱是指人口在進入發(fā)達國家行列之前就已經(jīng)老去。只要保持 1.9-2.1 的生育率,你就永遠不會陷入中等收入陷阱,因為你總是有機會實現(xiàn)工業(yè)化或以其他方式致富。
馬來西亞已經(jīng)是一個發(fā)達國家。土耳其幾乎是一個發(fā)達國家,其生育率為 1.9。
像黎巴嫩或泰國這樣的國家正處于中等收入陷阱之中。
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Wow, you explained it very well.
So China is destined to be middle income country
哇,你解釋得真好。
所以中國注定只能是中等收入國家嘍?
China is already a middle income country and moving towards becoming a developed country. They are no longer the cheapest destination but they are still the cheapest when it comes to manufacturing plus skills.
中國已經(jīng)是中等收入國家,正在向發(fā)達國家邁進。它不再是最便宜的投資目的地,但就制造和技能而言,它仍然是最便宜的。
China is already a developed country
中國已經(jīng)是發(fā)達國家了
Even if our GDP becomes 5x times we'd still be middle income by 2020 standards.
即使我們的 GDP 翻了 5 倍,按照 2020 年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),我們?nèi)匀皇侵械仁杖雵摇?/b>
We're not anywhere near the middle income trap yet. Let's get there first.
我們還沒有接近中等收入陷阱呢。我們先到了再說吧。
People need to understand why the middle income trap existed, and why it is weakening over time
The trap happens when a developing country exports to developed countries and the flow of trade goes that way
If that is the main trade relationship, the moment the country is too expensive it gets abandoned for a cheaper one, and growth stalls
However, the more global south-south trade there is, the less countries depend on wealthy nations, and the weaker the trap is
Since the modern world doesn't have the north-south hierarchy it once had, it's likely that the middle income trap is a thing of the past, or at least it's a much easier trap to get out of
China is about to officially become a developed country by 2025 or so, Malaysia became one in 2019
India should be able to replicate its sucess if it focus on improving innovation, energy production and increasing female productivity
大家需要先了解中等收入陷阱存在的原因,以及為什么它會隨著時間的推移而減弱
當(dāng)發(fā)展中國家向發(fā)達國家出口且貿(mào)易流向發(fā)達國家時,陷阱就會出現(xiàn)。
如果這是該國主要的貿(mào)易關(guān)系,那么一旦這個國家的成本過于昂貴,就會被發(fā)達國家放棄,轉(zhuǎn)而尋求成本更低的國家,于是該國經(jīng)濟增長就會停滯不前。
然而,全球南南貿(mào)易越多,各國對富裕國家的依賴就越少,陷阱就越弱
由于現(xiàn)代世界沒有了過去的南北等級制度,中等收入陷阱很可能已經(jīng)成為過去,或者至少可以更容易擺脫這種陷阱了。
中國即將在 2025 年左右正式成為發(fā)達國家,馬來西亞在 2019 年成為發(fā)達國家
如果印度專注于改進創(chuàng)新、能源生產(chǎn)和提高女性生產(chǎn)力,應(yīng)該能夠復(fù)制其成功經(jīng)驗。
India also has a large and growing domestic market. Export dependency is not a huge problem.
印度還擁有龐大且不斷增長的國內(nèi)市場。出口依賴并不是一個大問題。
What is your idea of a middle income trap. Let's say we get stuck in a Middle Income Trap and end with a economy like Turkey or Malaysia. What's so bad?? I mean of course they are not super powers. Still people lead a good life there by most metrics. That should be good enough for our people
你對中等收入陷阱的理解是什么?比方說,我們確實陷入中等收入陷阱,最后成為了土耳其或馬來西亞那樣的經(jīng)濟體。有什么不好?我的意思是,他們當(dāng)然不是超級大國。但從大多數(shù)指標(biāo)來看,那里的人們?nèi)匀贿^著不錯的生活。這對我們的人民來說已經(jīng)足夠好了
What discretionary income? That’s probably the .01% of people who have that. The majority of the population is still struggling and living below poverty line. This whole purchasing power thing is only limited to larger cities and only where people really earn good money, which again is barely .1% of the population. We are not a strong economy by any means. We export services because the vast consumer base is in the US, EU or the UK.
The real aIndia lies behind the metro cities.
什么可自由支配的收入?那可能是 0.01% 的人擁有的東西。大多數(shù)人仍在掙扎,生活在貧困線以下。整個購買力問題只限于大城市,而且只有那些真正能賺大錢的城市,而這也只占總?cè)丝诘?0.1%。無論如何,我們都不是一個強大的經(jīng)濟體。我們出口服務(wù),因為廣大的消費群體在美國、歐盟或英國。
真正的印度隱藏在大都市的背后。
Indians are now addicted to consumerism thank god I can see through this bs
At the same phase indians are not saving for future how our parents did .
In future u will see a lot of bankrupt well educated people on the streets begging
Regarding brain dead u can see a huge migration they are forced to leave the country for better life while our govt is pleasing some minorites
印度人現(xiàn)在沉迷于消費主義?謝天謝地,我沒那么好蒙。
同時,印度人不像我們的父輩那樣為未來儲蓄。
將來你會看到很多受過良好教育的人破產(chǎn),在街頭乞討。
還有各種腦殘,你可以看到大量的移民,他們?yōu)榱烁玫纳畋黄入x開這個國家,而我們的政府卻在取悅一些少數(shù)人。
Non Residential Indian
Title ans post screams of middle income trap but doesn’t mention the range of income lol
標(biāo)題和帖子高喊著中等收入陷阱,但沒有提到收入范圍哈哈
Middle income? Have you seen per capita numbers?
中等收入?你沒看過人均嗎?
For decades we are having a pattern of development with minimal job generation. Currently we are growing at 8-9% and have the highest unemployment rate in half a decade. This basically tells us that it is mostly the rich getting richer with very limited economic mobility for most people
幾十年來,我們的發(fā)展模式創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機會極少。目前,我們的經(jīng)濟增長率為 8%-9%,而失業(yè)率卻是近十年來最高的。這基本上告訴我們,大多數(shù)人的經(jīng)濟流動性非常有限,主要是富人越來越富。
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Certainly yes!
Indian economy will end up between 5-7 trillion at max. We never had proper industrialization nor will will see in foreseeable future.
With inadequate industrialization and waning TFR, we'll end upxes like Brazil/SA/Malaysia.
絕對會!
印度經(jīng)濟最終最多將達到 5 至 7 萬億美元。我們從未實現(xiàn)過適當(dāng)?shù)墓I(yè)化,在可預(yù)見的未來也不會實現(xiàn)。
由于工業(yè)化不足和總生育率下降,我們將以巴西/南非/馬來西亞等狀態(tài)結(jié)束。
Don't think so.
Problem is that changes take some decades, so it will take 30 years or so. The biggest benefit for India is a quite strong local market with room to grow, the biggest challenge I see is internal conflict; especially when growth creates imbalance between rich industrial hotspots and poor regions.
But India will continue to grow, and you'll continue to see proper industrialization. There are already some very good run companies on a high standard- it will spread further.
我不這么認為。
問題是,變革需要幾十年的時間,因此需要 30 年左右。對印度來說,最大的好處是擁有相當(dāng)強大的本地市場和增長空間,我認為最大的挑戰(zhàn)是內(nèi)部沖突;尤其是當(dāng)增長造成富裕的工業(yè)熱點地區(qū)和貧困地區(qū)之間的不平衡時。
但印度將繼續(xù)增長,你將繼續(xù)看到適當(dāng)?shù)墓I(yè)化。印度已經(jīng)有了一些高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的優(yōu)秀企業(yè)--這將會進一步擴散。
Lol!
You are blinded by fancy reports coming from west about Indian economy.
You're not aware of ground reality, nor understand how nations are built. I'd recommend read history of manufacturing and how Japan or PRC did it.
With this trajectory, we will stagnate by 2030 or even before.
哈哈!
你被西方關(guān)于印度經(jīng)濟的花哨報道蒙蔽了雙眼。
你不了解實際情況,也不了解國家是如何建立的。我建議你讀一讀制造業(yè)的歷史,看看日本或中國是這么做的。
按照這種發(fā)展軌跡,到 2030 年甚至更早,我們的經(jīng)濟就會停滯不前。
Indian growth story will end before India attains Dollar 8000 per capita income level
印度的增長故事將在印度達到人均8000美元收入水平之前結(jié)束