Electric Cars Are Driving China Toward the End of the Age of Oil
An EV road trip across China reveals how economics and consumer preferences—not green concerns—are hastening the energy transition.

中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)正在終結(jié)石油時(shí)代。 一次橫跨中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車公路旅行揭示了經(jīng)濟(jì)和消費(fèi)者偏好。不僅僅是應(yīng)對(duì)環(huán)保問題，也是在加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型。


Taishang, southern China, is more than an hour’s drive from the nearest city. Elderly men still gather at the central wood-frxd clan house to while away the afternoon. Fat chickens roam the village streets.

位于中國(guó)南部，距離最近的城市有一個(gè)多小時(shí)的車程。老人們?nèi)匀痪奂谥醒肽窘Y(jié)構(gòu)的宗祠里消磨午后時(shí)光。肥雞在村里的街道上游蕩。
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Yet parked in front of a house sits a black Tesla Model Y. Sun Hesheng, a 56-year-old businessman who exports plastic hair clips, purchased it recently for his son, Sun Yajun. The elder Sun was pleased by the lower costs of running the electric car compared to its petrol counterparts, while the younger was more focused on its stylish design and high-tech features. “Tesla is the fashion and the future,” said the 20-year-old.

然而，停在一所房子前面的是一輛黑色特斯拉Model Y。56歲的商人孫鶴生最近為他的兒子孫亞軍購(gòu)買了這輛車。孫鶴生對(duì)這輛電動(dòng)車的運(yùn)行成本比汽油車低這件事感到高興，而年輕的孫亞軍更關(guān)注它的時(shí)尚設(shè)計(jì)和高科技功能。“特斯拉是時(shí)尚和未來，”這位20歲的年輕人說。

Sun and his car, whom we met on a 2,000-kilometer (1,200 miles), five-day road trip, are part of China’s extraordinary electric vehicle boom. Since the beginning of 2017, China has chalked up more than 18 million EV sales, nearly half the world’s total and over four times more than the US, according to BloombergNEF data. By 2026, the research group projects that over 50% of all new passenger vehicle sales in China will be electric, compared to a little over a quarter in the US.

我們?cè)谝淮?000公里（1200英里），為期五天的公路旅行中遇到了孫先生和他的車，他們的車是中國(guó)卓越的電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的一部分。根據(jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)數(shù)據(jù)，自2017年初以來，中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車銷量已經(jīng)超過1800萬輛，幾乎占全球總量的一半，是美國(guó)的四倍多。研究小組預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年，中國(guó)新乘用車銷量的50%以上將是電動(dòng)汽車，而美國(guó)僅僅占四分之一左右。

This surge in domestic purchases has helped Chinese companies build a dominant position in the world’s EV supply chain, creating angst in the US and Europe as policymakers worry about being left behind. But the ramifications of China’s switch from the internal combustion engine has consequences far beyond the auto industry.

這種國(guó)內(nèi)購(gòu)買激增幫助中國(guó)公司在全球電動(dòng)汽車供應(yīng)鏈中建立了主導(dǎo)地位，讓美國(guó)和歐洲的政策制定者擔(dān)心自己會(huì)被甩在后面。但中國(guó)從燃油車轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)汽車的影響遠(yuǎn)不止于汽車行業(yè)。

“Every car you start driving with electricity, you’re not driving with oil,” said Robert Brecha, a professor of sustainability at the University of Dayton in Ohio. “If it [China’s EV growth rate] keeps up for the next decade, it’s going to put a big dent into oil consumption globally."

俄亥俄州戴頓大學(xué)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展學(xué)教授羅伯特·布雷查說：“每使用一輛電驅(qū)動(dòng)的車，都意味著會(huì)減少使用石油?！薄叭绻ㄖ袊?guó)的電動(dòng)汽車增長(zhǎng)速度）在未來十年內(nèi)持續(xù)下去，將對(duì)全球石油耗量將大打折扣?！?/b>

China is the world’s biggest crude importing nation. Its massive two-decade long growth in consumption helped bring prices into the $100s per barrel range and made billionaires out of Texas wildcatters and Middle Eastern emirs.

中國(guó)是世界上最大的原油進(jìn)口國(guó)。二十年多年來的消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)使原油價(jià)格飆升到每桶100美元以上，并使得得克薩斯州的野蠻開采者和中東的埃米爾成為億萬富翁。

The transport sector accounts for nearly half of China’s overall oil consumption, so with the growing number of EVs meaning demand for fuel is expected to fall, analysts and industry executives alike are bringing forward predictions for when China will reach its peak oil moment. Zhou xinhuai, the chief executive officer of state-owned oil giant Cnooc Ltd. said in August the widespread industry consensus is now that the all-time high will be reached this year.

交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)占中國(guó)整體石油消費(fèi)的近一半，因此隨著電動(dòng)汽車數(shù)量的增加，燃料需求預(yù)計(jì)將下降，分析師和行業(yè)高管們都提前預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)何時(shí)將達(dá)到石油消耗的峰值。中國(guó)國(guó)有石油巨頭中海油有限公司的首席執(zhí)行官周新槐在8月份表示，廣泛的行業(yè)共識(shí)是今年將達(dá)到歷史最高峰。


Possible replacement sources of oil demand like India don’t have China’s deep pockets, potentially creating the conditions for a structural slide in prices that could weaken exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia. There are other geopolitical implications too: China’s historic dependence on energy imports—a major source of concern for its leaders—has played a role in key foreign policy decisions from its aggressive expansion in the South China Sea to its no-limits friendship with Russia to***’s signature Belt and Road Initiative. Its purchases underpin friendships.

有替代石油需求的國(guó)家，比如說印度，并沒有中國(guó)那樣雄厚的資金實(shí)力，這可能導(dǎo)致石油價(jià)格下滑，進(jìn)而削弱俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯等出口國(guó)的實(shí)力。還有其他地緣政治影響：中國(guó)對(duì)能源進(jìn)口的路徑依賴——這是中國(guó)極為關(guān)注的主要問題——已經(jīng)在一些重要的外交決策中發(fā)揮了作用，在南海的激進(jìn)擴(kuò)張到與俄羅斯的不設(shè)限的關(guān)系，再到中國(guó)的標(biāo)志性“一帶一路”倡議。中國(guó)的購(gòu)買支撐著友誼關(guān)系。

“China won’t be the same sort of guaranteed bet for oil demand growth that it’s been in the last 10 years,” said Ciaran Healy, an oil market analyst at the International Energy Agency. “It has big implications for people all over the world.”

“中國(guó)不再會(huì)像過去10年那樣成為石油需求增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵，”國(guó)際能源署的石油市場(chǎng)分析師西蘭-希利說道?！斑@對(duì)世界各地的人們都有重大影響?！?/b>

Still, predictions of peak oil demand in general—and in China especially—have a long history of being premature. Its largest state-owned oil company, China National Petroleum Corp., in 2017 forecast that consumption would eventually top out at 690 million tons a year. The next year, it upped that to 700 million tons, then to 740 million before landing on 780 million tons, its current outlook.

不過，對(duì)石油需求達(dá)到峰值的預(yù)測(cè)——尤其是在中國(guó)——一直以來都為時(shí)過早。中國(guó)最大的國(guó)有石油公司——中國(guó)石油天然氣集團(tuán)公司——在2017年預(yù)測(cè)石油消費(fèi)最終將達(dá)到每年6.9億噸。次年，他們將這一數(shù)字上調(diào)至7億噸，然后又調(diào)至7.4億噸，最終確定為7.8億噸，這是他們目前的預(yù)測(cè)。

Power lines dot the highway between Shanghai and Suzhou.
And calling the peak relies on the assumption that China’s EV adoption rates will keep surging. That isn’t a given. For EVs to truly become universal they can’t just be cars of the city; they need to be able to operate in the country’s vast hinterlands. And they can’t just appeal to early adopters; they need to become the option of choice for people up and down the social scale. In China, where consumer preference surveys of the depth common in the West are practically unknown, and getting any sort of reliable data is increasingly hard, whether this is happening isn’t something that can be determined from behind a desk.

上海和蘇州之間的高速公路上布滿了充電樁。
判斷達(dá)到峰值的前提是中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車采用率繼續(xù)激增。這并非是一定會(huì)發(fā)生的事情。要讓電動(dòng)汽車真正普及，它們不能只是城市中的交通工具；它們需要能夠在中國(guó)廣袤的腹地來往奔跑。而且它們不能只吸引早期使用者；需要成為社會(huì)各階層人們的首選。在中國(guó)，西方常見的消費(fèi)者偏好調(diào)查幾乎是沒有的，而且越來越難獲取任何可靠的數(shù)據(jù)，這不是能在辦公桌上就能確定的。

So to see whether the EV infrastructure on the ground—and people’s attitudes—tally with the bold switchover projections, Bloomberg News decided to take an EV road trip. Travelling from the glitzy eastern coastal megacity of Shanghai, via the industrial powerhouse of Wuhan, and then into the country’s remote mountainous center, we wanted to see if we could get a glimpse of the end of the oil age.

因此，為了了解電動(dòng)汽車基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施以及人們的態(tài)度是否與大膽的轉(zhuǎn)型預(yù)測(cè)相符，彭博新聞社決定進(jìn)行一次電動(dòng)汽車之旅。我們從東部沿海繁華的大都市上海出發(fā)，經(jīng)過工業(yè)重鎮(zhèn)武漢，然后進(jìn)入中國(guó)偏遠(yuǎn)的山區(qū)地帶，我們想看看是否能一窺石油時(shí)代的終結(jié)。
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EVs in China come in many shapes and sizes, from the ultra-luxury Yangwang SUV, which can get 1,000 kilometers on a single charge, to the basic Wuling Hongguang Mini, which can get about 120 kilometers. We chose something in-between: a BYD Qin, the first new energy A-class sedan to eclipse one million sales, according to the manufacturer.

中國(guó)的電動(dòng)汽車有各種各樣的款式和尺寸，從可以單次充電行駛1000公里的超豪華仰望SUV，到可以行駛約120公里的小號(hào)的五菱宏光。我們選擇了介于兩者之間的車型：比亞迪-秦，這是第一款新能源A級(jí)轎車，根據(jù)制造商的說法已經(jīng)突破了一百萬的銷量。
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The petrol station where we picked up the car in Shanghai was an early indicator that even legacy fossil fuel companies are betting the transition to electric cars has legs. Operated by Sinopec, China’s largest oil refiner, there were not only gasoline and diesel pumps, but about 20 lime-green charging posts and a shipping container-sized battery swapping station.

我們?cè)谏虾Ｈ≤嚨募佑驼?，看到即使是傳統(tǒng)的化石燃料公司也在押注向電動(dòng)汽車的過渡。這家加油站由中國(guó)最大的石油煉制企業(yè)中石化運(yùn)營(yíng)，不僅有汽油和柴油，還有大約20個(gè)青綠色的充電樁和一個(gè)集裝箱大小的電池交換站。

The station attendant, who only gave his surname, Zhang, said in the few years since the station opened, charging has grown from an experiment—this was the state-owned firm’s first multi-purpose refueling stop in Shanghai—to its main offering. Cars charge 24 hours a day and at lunchtime it was so full of drivers smoking while waiting to fill their batteries that Sinopec had to install a concrete wall between the two areas so stray cigarettes didn’t become a safety hazard around the fuel pumps.

這位加油站的服務(wù)員，只告訴我們他姓張，說自從這個(gè)加油站開業(yè)幾年來，充電業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)從一項(xiàng)實(shí)驗(yàn)發(fā)展成為主要服務(wù)項(xiàng)目。汽車可以24小時(shí)充電，中午的時(shí)候，充電區(qū)域擠滿了等待充電的司機(jī)，他們一邊吸煙一邊等待充電，以至于中石化不得不在兩個(gè)區(qū)域之間安裝了一堵混凝土墻，以免煙頭在加油泵周圍成為安全隱患。

“No one will drive a gasoline car in the future,” Zhang said. “It’ll be a world for electric cars.”

張先生說：“將來沒有人會(huì)開汽油車，電動(dòng)汽車將會(huì)成為主流?！?/b>

There are other signs too that the oil industry is preparing for a different future. Just 20 minutes’ drive or so from central Shanghai, Sinopec’s Gaoqiao oil refinery sits on the banks of the Huangpu River. It is an example of how things used to be: Built in the 1980s, it was designed to maximize the production of gasoline and diesel. Gleaming pipes and stills that convert raw crude oil into transport fuel and plastics tower above trees meant to provide a buffer between the plant and the world outside.

石油行業(yè)正準(zhǔn)備迎接不同的未來，還有其他跡象。距離上海市中心約20分鐘車程，中國(guó)石化的高橋煉油廠坐落在黃浦江畔。它是過去一切的典范：建于上世紀(jì)80年代，旨在最大限度地生產(chǎn)汽油和柴油。閃閃發(fā)光的管道和蒸餾塔將原油轉(zhuǎn)化為交通燃料和塑料。
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Business is still brisk: From a seafood restaurant across from its main gate, you can watch the near non-stop comings and goings of tanker trucks filling up with petrol and diesel to carry to nearby refueling stations. In a street packed with cars only one, a silver BMW, had the signature green license plate of an electric vehicle.

生意依然興?。涸谡T對(duì)面的一家海鮮餐館里，你可以看到不斷進(jìn)出的油罐車，裝載著汽油和柴油，運(yùn)往附近的加油站。在一條車輛擁擠的街道上，只有一輛銀色寶馬車上有電動(dòng)車的標(biāo)志性綠色車牌。

Newer refiners, like the privately run Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., typically build facilities instead at isolated islands or peninsulas, far from urban areas where the government wants to cut pollution. These are focused on how to maximize the production of petrochemicals for the plastics and chemicals industry. The demand for these sorts of materials is one of the wild cards in peak oil predictions: As China gets richer it’s likely to consume more goods—often made from plastics. Plus jet fuel demand is expected to rise as more Chinese take to the skies.

像浙江石化這樣的新型煉油企業(yè)通常在偏遠(yuǎn)的島嶼或半島建設(shè)設(shè)施，遠(yuǎn)離城市地區(qū)希望減少污染。這些設(shè)施專注于如何最大限度地生產(chǎn)塑料和化工產(chǎn)品。這類材料的需求是石油峰值預(yù)測(cè)中的變數(shù)之一：隨著中國(guó)變得更富裕，很可能消費(fèi)更多商品——通常是塑料制品。此外，隨著更多中國(guó)人乘坐飛機(jī)，噴氣機(jī)燃油的需求預(yù)計(jì)也會(huì)上升。

Spend much time driving in China, and you’ll quickly see that the charging facilities such as those at the Sinopec station are no longer an outlier. Unlike many places, such as the US, there is no worry about not being able to find a spot: China has about 2.5 million public charging stations, far and away the most in the world.

在中國(guó)駕駛時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)，你會(huì)很快發(fā)現(xiàn)，像中國(guó)石化加油站那樣的充電設(shè)施不再是個(gè)例外。與許多地方不同，例如美國(guó)，不用擔(dān)心找不到停車位：中國(guó)擁有大約250萬個(gè)公共充電站，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過全球其他地方。
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The growth of the network was both a result of state planning and private enterprise. Giant state-owned companies like State Grid Corp. of China were given mandates to roll out chargers, while private companies like Qingdao TGOOD Electric Co. jumped at the chance to build charging posts—in part to lay early claim to the best locations. Baidu’s mapping software—the Chinese equivalent of Google Maps—has them all integrated, delivering constant reminders of where to go. Payment is typically via an app or the ubiquitous WeChat platform.

這種電力網(wǎng)絡(luò)的增長(zhǎng)既是國(guó)家規(guī)劃的結(jié)果，也是私營(yíng)企業(yè)的努力。中國(guó)國(guó)家電網(wǎng)等大型國(guó)有企業(yè)被授權(quán)推出充電樁，而青島特銳德電氣公司等私營(yíng)企業(yè)則迅速抓住機(jī)會(huì)建設(shè)充電樁，部分是為了早期占據(jù)最佳位置。百度的地圖軟件——中國(guó)版的谷歌地圖——將它們整合在一起，不斷提醒你去哪里。付款通常通過應(yīng)用程序或無處不在的微信平臺(tái)進(jìn)行。


It was infrastructure we became very, even too, familiar with as we drove. Chargers are getting faster, but currently EV road trips are full of long pit stops. The Qin’s battery would last for a little more than 300 kilometers. Fine for city driving, but problematic on longer journeys. And while filling up a car with gasoline takes a minute or two, it routinely took us about 50 minutes to recharge. (High-end vehicles like Teslas charge faster.) These stops all add up. When we left Shanghai, our ETA in Wuhan was 9.30 p.m. Instead we arrived at 2.30 a.m.

在駕駛過程中，我們對(duì)這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施非常熟悉。充電器的充電速度越來越快，但目前的電動(dòng)車公路旅行充電時(shí)間很長(zhǎng)。秦的電池續(xù)航里程略微超過300公里。對(duì)于城市駕駛來說還好，但在長(zhǎng)途旅行中會(huì)有問題。而加油只需要一兩分鐘，但充電通常需要約50分鐘。（像特斯拉這樣的高端車輛充電速度更快。）所有這些停車時(shí)間都會(huì)累加。當(dāng)我們離開上海時(shí)，我們?cè)谖錆h的預(yù)計(jì)到達(dá)時(shí)間是晚上9:30，但實(shí)際上我們到達(dá)的時(shí)間是凌晨2:30。

Whether the issues caused by such short ranges are enough to dissuade EV adoption may depend on driving customs. Road trips and the pull of the open road are concepts deeply ingrained in American culture, whereas in China, highways are a more recent phenomenon and most cross-country travel is done by high-speed rail.

這種短續(xù)航里程帶來的問題是否是在阻止電動(dòng)汽車的普及，可能取決于駕駛習(xí)慣。開闊公路旅行是深深植根于美國(guó)文化中的概念，而在中國(guó)，高速公路是一個(gè)相對(duì)較新的現(xiàn)象，大多數(shù)穿州過省的旅行都是通過高鐵完成的。

For those who do routinely drive longer distances, right now the lure is that what you lose in time you can make up for in money. Li Yong, who uses a Changan Auto electric MPV to ship meat from his goose farm in Anhui province to customers several hundred kilometers away, says the switch away from gasoline is saving him about 80% on fuel costs. As the upfront price tag of EVs has come down, cheap power means lifetime ownership of an EV is now less expensive than of a fueled vehicle.

對(duì)于那些經(jīng)常駕駛長(zhǎng)距離的人來說，現(xiàn)在的誘惑是，你所損失的時(shí)間可以通過省下的錢來彌補(bǔ)。在安徽省的一個(gè)養(yǎng)鵝場(chǎng)，李勇使用長(zhǎng)安電動(dòng)多功能車輛將肉類運(yùn)往幾百公里之外的客戶，他說電力汽車可以節(jié)省大約80％的燃料成本。隨著電動(dòng)汽車的前期價(jià)格下降，廉價(jià)動(dòng)力意味著終身?yè)碛须妱?dòng)汽車比擁有燃油車更實(shí)惠。

“I won’t go back now,” Li said at a charging station north of Hefei. “Electric cars are so convenient and cost saving.”

“我現(xiàn)在不會(huì)回去了，”李在合肥北部的一個(gè)充電站說?！半妱?dòng)汽車非常方便和省錢?！?/b>

China has some of the cheapest electricity in the world thanks both to massive adoption of renewables and a bounty of low-cost coal, the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel. China consumes more than half the world’s supply, and coal accounts for about 60% of its power generation. So while the country is investing heavily in renewables, it’s not like the EV surge has suddenly turned China into an environmentalist’s nirvana—even if it does mean a vital step has been taken.

中國(guó)擁有世界上最廉價(jià)的電力，這要?dú)w功于可再生能源的大規(guī)模采用以及豐富的低成本煤炭資源，這是世界上最臟的化石燃料。中國(guó)消耗了全球一半以上的煤炭，并且煤炭占其發(fā)電量的約60%。因此，盡管該國(guó)在可再生能源上投資巨大，但這并不意味著電動(dòng)汽車的激增突然間將中國(guó)變成了環(huán)保主義者的天堂——盡管中國(guó)確實(shí)邁出了至關(guān)重要的一步。

The auto heartland of China is the central city of Wuhan, sometimes referred to as China’s Detroit. It’s the base for Dongfeng Motor Group Co., one of the nation’s largest car companies which partners with the likes of Nissan and Honda to build foreign brands for the domestic market, as well as car-components suppliers such as Aptiv Plc.

中國(guó)汽車的中心地帶是中部城市武漢，有時(shí)被稱為中國(guó)的底特律。這里是東風(fēng)汽車集團(tuán)有限公司的總部，該公司是中國(guó)最大的汽車公司之一，與日產(chǎn)和本田等公司合作為國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)生產(chǎn)外國(guó)品牌汽車，以及與德爾福汽車公司這樣的汽車零部件供應(yīng)商合作。

On the south side of town is Wuhan Car Valley, home to about a dozen different manufacturers and a massive collection of used car dealerships. Salespeople here say that for well-heeled buyers, elite European car brands that still mostly make gasoline cars remain a big draw. Indeed BMW, Mercedes Benz and Audi are often approvingly referred to collectively in China as “BBA.”

在城市的南部是武漢汽車谷，這里有大約十幾家不同的制造商和大量的二手車經(jīng)銷商。銷售人員表示，對(duì)于富裕的購(gòu)車者來說，歐洲高端汽油車還是一個(gè)很大的吸引點(diǎn)。事實(shí)上，寶馬、奔馳和奧迪在中國(guó)通常被稱為“BBA”，并且備受贊賞。

Unlike in the US and Europe, climate concerns are typically nowhere on Chinese buyers’ radar, says Li Long, who founded one of the province’s first used EV dealerships, Electric Rabbit, in 2021. There’s no equivalent to Sierra Club types or famous early adopters like actor and environmental activist Leonardo DiCaprio, who helped popularize hybrids in the 2000s and is now frequently photographed in luxury electric models.

與美國(guó)和歐洲不同，氣候問題通常不在中國(guó)購(gòu)車者的考慮范圍之內(nèi)，省內(nèi)首家二手電動(dòng)汽車經(jīng)銷商“電動(dòng)兔”創(chuàng)始人李龍表示。在這里，沒有像美國(guó)的“塞拉俱樂部”那樣的組織，也沒有像演員和環(huán)?；顒?dòng)家萊昂納多·迪卡普里奧那樣的著名早期試用者，后者曾在2000年代幫助推廣混合動(dòng)力車型，現(xiàn)在經(jīng)常被拍攝乘坐豪華電動(dòng)車。

Instead, said Li, who has a showroom floor full of Teslas and other high-end brands, clients are more interested in the bling: screens that can play movies and social media videos, autonomous driving and parking assistance and even built-in karaoke studios. That’s why the domestic industry is doubling down on style and fancy gadgets. At the Shanghai auto show in April, crowds swarmed around futuristic electric roadsters with hologram wheels and SUVs with high-resolution displays stretched across the entire dashboard.

相反，他的展廳里擺滿了特斯拉和其他高端品牌的汽車，客戶更感興趣的是車內(nèi)的裝飾：可以播放電影和社交媒體視頻的屏幕、自動(dòng)駕駛和泊車輔助，甚至內(nèi)置的卡拉OK。這就是為什么國(guó)內(nèi)汽車行業(yè)更加注重風(fēng)格和花哨的小工具。在四月的上海車展上，人群圍繞著未來主義電動(dòng)跑車和整個(gè)儀表板上都是高分辨率顯示屏的SUV車型。


Indeed, in China there is sometimes even cynicism about whether there are really any benefits to the planet from driving electric. At a roadside rest stop between Shanghai and Nanjing, alongside the normal restaurants and toilets, sit a pair of showrooms for EVs. About 10 different Chinese brands jostled for prominence. A pair of older men looking around said they were dubious about the environmental claims. Doesn’t manufacturing the battery create just as much pollution as burning petrol, they asked.

事實(shí)上，在中國(guó)，甚至有人對(duì)駕駛電動(dòng)車是否真的對(duì)地球有好處表示懷疑。在上海和南京之間的一家路邊休息站，除了普通的餐館和廁所外，還有兩家電動(dòng)汽車展廳。大約有10個(gè)不同的中國(guó)品牌爭(zhēng)相展示。兩個(gè)老年男性表示懷疑環(huán)保主張。他們?cè)儐?，制造電池是否?huì)產(chǎn)生與燃燒汽油一樣多的污染。

Manufacturing of EVs is more emissions intensive than a combustion engine car, because their heavy batteries require more metals, which are energy- and carbon-intensive to mine and refine. But every time an EV is driven without burning oil, it makes up for a fraction of that difference. Over the course of a typical 17-year life, a Tesla in the US emits 55 tons less carbon dioxide than its gasoline equivalent, according to the company.

電動(dòng)汽車的制造比燃油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)汽車更加排放密集，因?yàn)樗鼈兂林氐碾姵匦枰嘟饘?，而開采和精煉這些金屬需要耗費(fèi)大量能源和碳排放。但每當(dāng)電動(dòng)汽車行駛時(shí)，不用燃燒油，就彌補(bǔ)了部分差異。根據(jù)特斯拉公司的數(shù)據(jù)，在美國(guó)，一輛特斯拉電動(dòng)汽車的使用壽命為17年，其二氧化碳排放比同等汽油車少55噸。

Still, the mining of metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt scars the earth and the rush for such commodities can have grave and even deadly consequences for local communities. In 2019, 43 people who were illegally mining at one of the world’s biggest cobalt reserves in the Democratic Republic of Congo died when part of the mine collapsed.

盡管像鋰、鎳和鈷這樣的金屬開采對(duì)地球造成傷害，對(duì)這些商品的爭(zhēng)奪可能對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)厣鐓^(qū)造成嚴(yán)重甚至致命的后果。2019年，在剛果民主共和國(guó)世界最大的鈷礦之一，有43名非法采礦者在礦井坍塌時(shí)喪生。

If electrified transport is going to be truly sustainable, batteries can’t be built from scratch every time. And demand for new lithium-ion batteries is expected to increase about five-fold between 2023 and 2033, according to Julia Harty, an energy transition analyst at FastMarkets. Meeting that will require recycling as well as mining.

如果電動(dòng)交通要真正可持續(xù)，電池就不能每次都從礦石開始制造。根據(jù)FastMarkets的能源轉(zhuǎn)型分析師朱莉婭·哈蒂的預(yù)測(cè)，2023年至2033年間，對(duì)新的鋰離子電池的需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加約五倍。要滿足這一需求，除了開采，還需要回收利用。

In Jingmen, about three hours drive west of Wuhan, on a sprawling expanse with a lake, dormitories and pack of company puppies, GEM Co. is doing just that. The company is one of the world’s largest battery recyclers and works with everyone from major manufacturers to tiny traders to source used batteries, which are shipped to logistics centers where they are sorted and stored. Some batteries are still powerful enough to be repackaged and sold, while others need to be chemically recycled.

在武漢以西約三小時(shí)車程的荊門，格林美公司就在做這件事。該公司是世界上最大的電池回收商之一，與從大型制造商到小販都有合作，收集二手電池，然后將其運(yùn)送到物流中心進(jìn)行分類和儲(chǔ)存。一些電池仍然足夠強(qiáng)大，可以重新包裝并出售，而另一些需要進(jìn)行化學(xué)回收。

That’s where this facility comes into play. An airplane-hangar-sized building houses a multi-story system of conveyor belts, pipes, furnaces and crushers. Workers in gray jumpers and hard hats, wearing heavy-duty industrial masks to protect their lungs from the metal dust, feed used batteries into the assembly line. After several days of mechanical crushing and chemical reactions in acid baths, the batteries are reduced to their original components—aluminum and copper from the casing, and metals like lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese from the battery cells inside.

這就是這個(gè)設(shè)施的作用所在。一個(gè)飛機(jī)庫(kù)大小的建筑內(nèi)，有一層層的傳送帶、管道、熔爐和粉碎機(jī)。穿著灰色連帽衫和硬帽子的工人戴著重型工業(yè)口罩，保護(hù)他們的肺不受金屬粉塵侵害，將二手電池投入生產(chǎn)線。經(jīng)過數(shù)天的機(jī)械粉碎和酸浴中的化學(xué)反應(yīng)后，電池被還原為其原始組成部分——從外殼中提取鋁和銅，從電池內(nèi)部提取鋰、鎳、鈷和錳等金屬。

Recovery rates depend on the metal but range from about 92% to 99% of the original, and the quality is indistinguishable from mined product, said Zhao Xuan, a manager at the plant. Jingmen is currently processing about 60 tons a day, but has space to ramp up to about 300 tons as the growing EV fleet creates more batteries in need of recycling. The process is energy- and chemicals-intensive, but it requires a fraction of the resources of extracting the material from the ground. As batteries propagate, each city will be an urban mine home to metals waiting to be extracted and reused, he said.

回收率取決于金屬的種類，但原始金屬的回收率大約在92%至99%之間，質(zhì)量與從礦產(chǎn)中提取的產(chǎn)品無異，該工廠的經(jīng)理趙璇表示。荊門目前每天處理約60噸，但隨著不斷增長(zhǎng)的電動(dòng)汽車隊(duì)伍產(chǎn)生更多需要回收的電池，其處理能力可提升至約300噸。這一過程需要大量能源和化學(xué)品，但與地下提取材料相比，它只需很少的資源。他說，隨著電池的普及，每個(gè)城市都將成為一個(gè)城市礦，其中蘊(yùn)藏著等待提取和再利用的金屬。

Zhao’s focus on the potential business opportunities ahead from the EV revolution is a sign of how the boom, born out of government subsidies, is now sailing under its own wind due to economics and consumer preferences.

趙先生關(guān)注電動(dòng)汽車革命帶來的潛在商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，這表明由政府補(bǔ)貼引發(fā)的電動(dòng)汽車熱潮現(xiàn)在正在因經(jīng)濟(jì)和消費(fèi)者偏好而自發(fā)前進(jìn)。

Anders Hove, a senior researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, likens it to the transition from typewriters to word processors. “At some point, a majority of people are going to have that EV experience, and they’re going to look at gasoline cars and say ‘What are you doing? Why are you still driving that old thing?’”

牛津能源研究所的高級(jí)研究員安德斯·霍夫?qū)⑵浔茸鲝拇蜃謾C(jī)向文字處理器的轉(zhuǎn)變。“在某個(gè)時(shí)候，大多數(shù)人都會(huì)有電動(dòng)汽車的經(jīng)歷，他們會(huì)看著汽油車說‘你在干什么？你為什么還開那種老舊的東西？’”

Even so, some experts are cynical about whether peak oil is really here just yet. Giovanni Serio, head of research at Vitol Group, the world’s largest oil trader, is still forecasting the addition of 11 million net gasoline cars in China next year. And he points out that even with EVs accounting for a larger share of sales, it will take time for the fleet to change shape. Still, even he believes that the peak is on its way.

即便如此，一些專家對(duì)于石油峰值是否真的已經(jīng)到來持懷疑態(tài)度。全球最大的石油交易商維托爾集團(tuán)的研究主管喬萬尼·塞里奧仍預(yù)測(cè)明年中國(guó)凈新增1100萬輛汽油車。他指出，即使電動(dòng)汽車在銷售中占據(jù)了更大的份額，電動(dòng)車也需要時(shí)間來改變。即便如此，他也認(rèn)為石油峰值即將到來。

Back in Taishang, there may soon be more converts. A group of elementary school children had gathered around the parked Tesla. One boy squealed as he pushed at the hidden door handle, causing it to pop out. Sun Hesheng loaded a big canvas bag full of tiny hair clips into the back of his mini-truck. He drives the truck about 10,000 kilometers annually shipping the clips, costing him about 8,000 yuan a year. His son told him that the cost could be as low as 1,000 yuan in an EV.

可能很快會(huì)有更多地變化。一群小學(xué)生聚集在停著的特斯拉車旁。一個(gè)男孩推開隱藏的車門把手時(shí)尖叫起來，門把手從車門中彈出。孫和生把一個(gè)大帆布袋子裝滿了小發(fā)夾放進(jìn)了他的小卡車后面。他每年開著這輛卡車行駛約10,000公里，運(yùn)輸這些發(fā)夾，每年成本約8,000元。他的兒子告訴他，在一輛電動(dòng)汽車上，成本可能低至1,000元。

“If the EV experience turns out great for my son,” the elder Sun said, “I would consider swapping my mini-truck for one.”

“如果電動(dòng)汽車的體驗(yàn)對(duì)我的兒子來說非常好，”孫說，“我會(huì)考慮換了我的小卡車。”