QA問答：目前，美元是否面臨失去世界主要儲備貨幣地位的風(fēng)險？KB回復(fù)
Is the U.S. dollar at risk of losing its status as the world's primary reserve currency?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：需要意識到的是，美元作為主要儲備貨幣一直是許多國家私下里不太滿意的一個問題，這是歐元存在的不那么公開的原因之一，許多國家，特別是中東國家，認為出售石油并將所有從這些銷售中賺取的錢存入美國的賬戶是非常錯誤的......
正文翻譯
Profile photo for Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
Lawyer14h
What you need to realize is that, the Dollar being a primary reserve currency has been an issue that many countries have secretly not been very comfortable with
It was one of the not so public reasons for the existence of the EURO
Many Nations especially the Middle East Nations felt it very wrong to sell their oil and keep all the money earned from those sales in Accounts in the United States
However back then the US was too powerful
Saddam Hussain tried and ended up being murdered after a bogus invasion
你需要意識到的是，美元作為主要儲備貨幣一直是許多國家私下里不太滿意的一個問題
這是歐元存在的不那么公開的原因之一
許多國家，特別是中東國家，認為出售石油并將所有從這些銷售中賺取的錢存入美國的賬戶是非常錯誤的
然而當(dāng)時的美國太強大了
薩達姆·侯賽因在一次虛假入侵后嘗試并最終被謀殺
Gadaffi tried and was killed in a color revolution sponsored by the United States
The Saudis, the Qataris, the Iranians all felt like being under a Colonial Dictator who decided and controlled every aspect of their life using the dollar
The US was making up rules and using the power of sanctions and its military to destroy anyone who did not toe the line
Thus the fact that the Dollar was the Primary reserve currency was not something everyone was happy with even from the mid 1990s
The UK had decided to tolerate this because they were too badly broken after World War II and needed the US to survive as a developed nation
Every 3 out 4 Dollars they needed came from US Banks & US Federal Loans.
Europe too
Russia due to it's incompetent leadership under Geriatrics like Brezhnev, Andropov and Gromyko and Chernenko plus Idiots like Gorbachev also needed US Dollars to rescue it's economy from collapse and hyperinflation
China was happy earning dollars and building its reserves and growing 14% a year
In short the US had forced these Nations into situations where the US and it's Dollars were indispensable to them
卡扎菲嘗試并在美國發(fā)起的顏色革命中被殺
沙特人、卡塔爾人、伊朗人都感覺自己像是在一個殖民獨裁者的統(tǒng)治下，他用美元來決定和控制他們生活的方方面面。
美國正在制定規(guī)則，并利用制裁和軍隊的力量消滅任何不守規(guī)矩的人
因此，即使從20世紀90年代中期開始，美元作為主要儲備貨幣的事實也不是每個人都滿意的
英國決定容忍這一點，因為他們在二戰(zhàn)后已經(jīng)崩潰了，需要美國作為一個發(fā)達國家生存下去
他們所需的每4美元中就有3美元來自美國銀行和銀行，美聯(lián)儲。
俄羅斯由于勃列日涅夫、安德羅波夫、葛羅米科、契爾年科等老年醫(yī)學(xué)家以及戈爾巴喬夫等白癡領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的無能領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，也需要美元來拯救其經(jīng)濟免于崩潰和惡性通貨膨脹
中國很高興賺取美元并建立外匯儲備，并且每年增長14%
簡而言之，美國迫使這些國家陷入了美國及其美元對它們不可或缺的境地
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
The Saudis, the Qataris, the Iranians all felt like being under a Colonial Dictator who decided and controlled every aspect of their life using the dollar
The US was making up rules and using the power of sanctions and its military to destroy anyone who did not toe the line
Thus the fact that the Dollar was the Primary reserve currency was not something everyone was happy with even from the mid 1990s
The UK had decided to tolerate this because they were too badly broken after World War II and needed the US to survive as a developed nation
Every 3 out 4 Dollars they needed came from US Banks & US Federal Loans.
Europe too
Russia due to it's incompetent leadership under Geriatrics like Brezhnev, Andropov and Gromyko and Chernenko plus Idiots like Gorbachev also needed US Dollars to rescue it's economy from collapse and hyperinflation
China was happy earning dollars and building its reserves and growing 14% a year
In short the US had forced these Nations into situations where the US and it's Dollars were indispensable to them
卡扎菲嘗試并在美國發(fā)起的顏色革命中被殺
沙特人、卡塔爾人、伊朗人都感覺自己像是在一個殖民獨裁者的統(tǒng)治下，他用美元來決定和控制他們生活的方方面面。
美國正在制定規(guī)則，并利用制裁和軍隊的力量消滅任何不守規(guī)矩的人
因此，即使從20世紀90年代中期開始，美元作為主要儲備貨幣的事實也不是每個人都滿意的
英國決定容忍這一點，因為他們在二戰(zhàn)后已經(jīng)崩潰了，需要美國作為一個發(fā)達國家生存下去
他們所需的每4美元中就有3美元來自美國銀行和銀行，美聯(lián)儲。
俄羅斯由于勃列日涅夫、安德羅波夫、葛羅米科、契爾年科等老年醫(yī)學(xué)家以及戈爾巴喬夫等白癡領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的無能領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，也需要美元來拯救其經(jīng)濟免于崩潰和惡性通貨膨脹
中國很高興賺取美元并建立外匯儲備，并且每年增長14%
簡而言之，美國迫使這些國家陷入了美國及其美元對它們不可或缺的境地
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Today things stand different
The US is much weaker than it was
The same Nation that could probably once control a conflict from DC alone, is unable to rein in its most dependent lackey ally - ISRAEL
It is riddled with Debt
It hassanctioned and played unfair so many times that IT'S CREDIBILITY IS ZERO
So every Nation that once tolerated the US Dollar as primary reserve, is starting to trade in other currencies including the Yuan, the Ruble and their own Local Currencies
Energy & Food is now being sold in Yuan and priced in Yuan
Qatar sells LNG to China pricing it in Yuan as do Saudi Arabia and Russia
Brazil sells Soybeans and Ore priced in Yuan to China
The US may still be very powerful against any attack on the US itself but their offensive warfare capabilities have significantly become weaker and weaker.
The Military Leaders are weak
The Politicians are imbeciles - either Neocons or Corrupt Ideologues or Neo Liberals
Hence DE DOLLARIZATION HAS BEGUN and will continue
今天情況有所不同
美國比以前弱多了
曾經(jīng)可能僅靠華盛頓就能控制沖突的國家，卻無法控制其最依賴的走狗盟友——以色列
它充滿了債務(wù)
它已經(jīng)多次制裁和不公平行事，其可信度為零
因此，每個曾經(jīng)容忍美元作為主要儲備的國家都開始以其他貨幣進行交易，包括人民幣、盧布和本國貨幣
能源與能源食品現(xiàn)在以人民幣出售并以人民幣定價
卡塔爾向中國出售液化天然氣，并以人民幣計價，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯也是如此
巴西以人民幣計價向中國出售大豆和礦石
美國對于任何針對美國自身的攻擊可能仍然非常強大，但其進攻性戰(zhàn)爭能力已明顯變得越來越弱。
軍事領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人軟弱
政客們都是低能者——要么是新保守派，要么是腐敗的理論家，要么是新自由主義者
因此，去美元化已經(jīng)開始并將持續(xù)下去
The US is much weaker than it was
The same Nation that could probably once control a conflict from DC alone, is unable to rein in its most dependent lackey ally - ISRAEL
It is riddled with Debt
It hassanctioned and played unfair so many times that IT'S CREDIBILITY IS ZERO
So every Nation that once tolerated the US Dollar as primary reserve, is starting to trade in other currencies including the Yuan, the Ruble and their own Local Currencies
Energy & Food is now being sold in Yuan and priced in Yuan
Qatar sells LNG to China pricing it in Yuan as do Saudi Arabia and Russia
Brazil sells Soybeans and Ore priced in Yuan to China
The US may still be very powerful against any attack on the US itself but their offensive warfare capabilities have significantly become weaker and weaker.
The Military Leaders are weak
The Politicians are imbeciles - either Neocons or Corrupt Ideologues or Neo Liberals
Hence DE DOLLARIZATION HAS BEGUN and will continue
今天情況有所不同
美國比以前弱多了
曾經(jīng)可能僅靠華盛頓就能控制沖突的國家，卻無法控制其最依賴的走狗盟友——以色列
它充滿了債務(wù)
它已經(jīng)多次制裁和不公平行事，其可信度為零
因此，每個曾經(jīng)容忍美元作為主要儲備的國家都開始以其他貨幣進行交易，包括人民幣、盧布和本國貨幣
能源與能源食品現(xiàn)在以人民幣出售并以人民幣定價
卡塔爾向中國出售液化天然氣，并以人民幣計價，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯也是如此
巴西以人民幣計價向中國出售大豆和礦石
美國對于任何針對美國自身的攻擊可能仍然非常強大，但其進攻性戰(zhàn)爭能力已明顯變得越來越弱。
軍事領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人軟弱
政客們都是低能者——要么是新保守派，要么是腐敗的理論家，要么是新自由主義者
因此，去美元化已經(jīng)開始并將持續(xù)下去
One currency as primary reserve and One Nation as a Hegemon was always wrong
Maybe it was unavoidable from 1945 to maybe 1975 when the world was still recovering from the World War and anti com...... Wars
However it should have started focusing on a Multipolar World and a Variant currency reserve from at least 1975
Yet the US kept it's hold as a Hegemon and it's currency as primary through:-
Removing the Gold Standard and adopting the Bretton Woods system forcing Europe to accept both
Adopted the Plaza Accords in 1985 and finished Japan as a potential rival
Invaded Iraq and sponsored color revolution in Libya to ensure no other player even thought of going against the Dollar
以一種貨幣作為主要儲備并以一國作為霸主總是錯誤的
也許從1945年到1975年是不可避免的，當(dāng)時世界仍在從世界大戰(zhàn)和反共戰(zhàn)爭中恢復(fù)過來
然而，至少從1975年起，大家就應(yīng)該開始關(guān)注多極世界和不同的貨幣儲備
然而，美國通過以下方式保持其霸權(quán)地位和貨幣地位：-
取消金本位制并采用布雷頓森林體系迫使歐洲接受
1985年通過廣場協(xié)議，使日本完全受控
入侵伊拉克并贊助利比亞顏色革命，以確保沒有其他參與者想到反對美元
Maybe it was unavoidable from 1945 to maybe 1975 when the world was still recovering from the World War and anti com...... Wars
However it should have started focusing on a Multipolar World and a Variant currency reserve from at least 1975
Yet the US kept it's hold as a Hegemon and it's currency as primary through:-
Removing the Gold Standard and adopting the Bretton Woods system forcing Europe to accept both
Adopted the Plaza Accords in 1985 and finished Japan as a potential rival
Invaded Iraq and sponsored color revolution in Libya to ensure no other player even thought of going against the Dollar
以一種貨幣作為主要儲備并以一國作為霸主總是錯誤的
也許從1945年到1975年是不可避免的，當(dāng)時世界仍在從世界大戰(zhàn)和反共戰(zhàn)爭中恢復(fù)過來
然而，至少從1975年起，大家就應(yīng)該開始關(guān)注多極世界和不同的貨幣儲備
然而，美國通過以下方式保持其霸權(quán)地位和貨幣地位：-
取消金本位制并采用布雷頓森林體系迫使歐洲接受
1985年通過廣場協(xié)議，使日本完全受控
入侵伊拉克并贊助利比亞顏色革命，以確保沒有其他參與者想到反對美元
Sadly today the US cannot continue this
Putin, xi are TOO STRONG
The BRI has ensured that most of the Global South no longer kowtows to the US blindly but rather would do what's best for them, bes example being Vietnam
Also the US thanks to 30 years of bullying and intimidating has now a foreign Service and diplomatic service that DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE WHAT IT MEANS TO NEGOTIATE OR BARGAIN.
The crop of idiot diplomats know only to threaten and bully
遺憾的是，今天美國無法繼續(xù)這樣做
俄羅斯、中國太強大了
“一帶一路”確保了大多數(shù)南方國家不再盲目向美國卑躬屈膝，而是會做對他們最有利的事情，最好的例子就是越南
此外，由于30年的欺凌和恐嚇，美國現(xiàn)在的外交部門和外交部門根本不知道談判或討價還價意味著什么。
這群白癡外交官只知道威脅和欺凌
Putin, xi are TOO STRONG
The BRI has ensured that most of the Global South no longer kowtows to the US blindly but rather would do what's best for them, bes example being Vietnam
Also the US thanks to 30 years of bullying and intimidating has now a foreign Service and diplomatic service that DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE WHAT IT MEANS TO NEGOTIATE OR BARGAIN.
The crop of idiot diplomats know only to threaten and bully
遺憾的是，今天美國無法繼續(xù)這樣做
俄羅斯、中國太強大了
“一帶一路”確保了大多數(shù)南方國家不再盲目向美國卑躬屈膝，而是會做對他們最有利的事情，最好的例子就是越南
此外，由于30年的欺凌和恐嚇，美國現(xiàn)在的外交部門和外交部門根本不知道談判或討價還價意味著什么。
這群白癡外交官只知道威脅和欺凌
Like Daleep Singh, the numbskull who threatened India with Sanctions when he could have offered a nice tech transfer deal plus a nice $ 100 Billion swap facility in Mumbai and maybe swayed India on his side
Or this brainless fool who could have easily offered China, a full tariff waiver for 3 years, a written guarantee on their US Investments plus a mutual guarantee on Taiwan (You don't attack Taiwan and we don't supply weapons)
China may have agreed to move away from Putin
If that was the case Putin would have lost by June 2022 and the West would have won
就像戴利普·辛格（Daleep Singh）一樣，這個傻瓜用制裁來威脅印度，而他本可以提供一份不錯的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓協(xié)議，再加上孟買價值1000億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，也許會讓印度站在他一邊
或者這個無腦的傻瓜可以輕易地向中國提供三年的全額關(guān)稅豁免，對美國投資的書面保證以及對臺灣的相互保證（你不攻擊臺灣，我們不提供武器） ）
中國可能已經(jīng)同意遠離普京
如果是這樣的話，到2022年6月普京就會失敗，而西方就會獲勝
Or this brainless fool who could have easily offered China, a full tariff waiver for 3 years, a written guarantee on their US Investments plus a mutual guarantee on Taiwan (You don't attack Taiwan and we don't supply weapons)
China may have agreed to move away from Putin
If that was the case Putin would have lost by June 2022 and the West would have won
就像戴利普·辛格（Daleep Singh）一樣，這個傻瓜用制裁來威脅印度，而他本可以提供一份不錯的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓協(xié)議，再加上孟買價值1000億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，也許會讓印度站在他一邊
或者這個無腦的傻瓜可以輕易地向中國提供三年的全額關(guān)稅豁免，對美國投資的書面保證以及對臺灣的相互保證（你不攻擊臺灣，我們不提供武器） ）
中國可能已經(jīng)同意遠離普京
如果是這樣的話，到2022年6月普京就會失敗，而西方就會獲勝
So Yes the US Dollar is going to lose its Primary Reserve Status
By 2030 I believe the USD will have a reserve of around 46%, the Yuan at 13%, Euro at 10%, Yen at 5%, the BRICS Settlement CBDC at 5% and Local Currencies at 21%
所以是的，美元將失去其主要儲備地位
到2030年，我相信美元儲備將達到46%左右，人民幣為13%，歐元為10%，日元為5%，金磚國家結(jié)算CBDC為5%，本幣為21%
By 2030 I believe the USD will have a reserve of around 46%, the Yuan at 13%, Euro at 10%, Yen at 5%, the BRICS Settlement CBDC at 5% and Local Currencies at 21%
所以是的，美元將失去其主要儲備地位
到2030年，我相信美元儲備將達到46%左右，人民幣為13%，歐元為10%，日元為5%，金磚國家結(jié)算CBDC為5%，本幣為21%
評論翻譯
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Sumanth
· 13h
The Washington administration is WILDLY out of step with the common American people. Poll after poll indicates that the regular American is tired of foreign conflicts and sanctions and wants the government to focus on the US only. Making sure the people have affordable healthcare, education and housing while these morons go off to support conflict in some foreign country which most Americans can’t even locate on a map.
華盛頓政府與美國普通民眾嚴重脫節(jié)。一項又一項民意調(diào)查顯示，普通美國人厭倦了外國沖突和制裁，希望政府只關(guān)注美國。確保人們有負擔(dān)得起的醫(yī)療、教育和住房，而這些白癡卻去支持某些大多數(shù)美國人甚至無法在地圖上找到的外國的沖突。
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Hu Shi xiong
· 13h
Polls hadn't decided government action within living memory .
在人們的記憶中，民意調(diào)查并未決定政府的行動。
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Jeff Duda
· 7h
That is true but please know that the US people are a lot better than the US government. Probably not going to fix the problem as the US has a huge military and control of the media to use against its own people as well as the rest of the world. But at least know the people of the US do not support or believe in its own government. Apologies to the rest of the world from the people of the US. Result the Dollar will collapse as it is not used for the betterment of the world and the leader of the USA (still the most powerful country in the world although falling fast) The politicians are also not working for the betterment of the world.
這是事實，但請知道，美國人民比美國政府要好得多?？赡懿粫鉀Q這個問題，因為美國擁有龐大的軍隊和對媒體的控制力量，可以用來對付自己的人民以及世界其他國家。但至少知道美國人民不支持或不相信自己的政府。美國人民向世界其他地區(qū)道歉。結(jié)果美元將會崩潰，因為它沒有被用來改善世界，而美國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人（盡管衰落很快，但仍然是世界上最強大的國家）政客們也沒有為改善世界而努力。
Hoàng Phan
· 12h
The euro itself is often thought of as the first example of exit — a planned exit from the dollar system. Because by creating the euro, the European countries essentially ejected the dollar from their mutual transactions. So this was the beginning of European monetary integration, largely by combining the surplus run by the German economy, with the rest of the Eurozone that was running a deficit. And so in that sense, they were trying to balance and stabilize their own exchange rates.
HOWEVER,
The way in which the euro was created was basically the satellite currency of the United States, because it was designed by Robert Mondell at the University of Chicago for what he was given the annual Nobel Prize for the worst economic advice that they give annually.
And he created the euro in a very right-wing “Chicago School” way, in a way that blocked the Eurozone from actually using the euro and the central bank to actually finance Keynesian-style budget deficits.
European countries were forbidden to run a budget deficit of more than three percent of their GDP, which is a very small amount. And what that did was prevent the euro from creating enough money, enough currency, enough credit, to really become a rival for the dollar.
It was sort of crippled from the very beginning by the rules that made sure the government would not be able to create enough credit to enable European recovery to take place without very very heavy borrowing from the European banks and from the American banks.
So the euro was created in a way to minimize the role of government, maximize the role of banks, and essentially that’s what made it a right-wing Chicago School development from the very beginning, and we’ve now seen how it’s unfolded.
歐元本身通常被認為是退出的第一個例子——計劃退出美元體系。因為通過創(chuàng)造歐元，歐洲國家實質(zhì)上將美元排除在相互交易之外。因此，這是歐洲貨幣一體化的開始，主要是將德國經(jīng)濟的盈余與歐元區(qū)其他國家的赤字結(jié)合起來。因此從這個意義上說，他們正在努力平衡和穩(wěn)定自己的匯率。
然而，
歐元的基本上是美國的衛(wèi)星貨幣，因為它是由芝加哥大學(xué)的羅伯特·蒙德爾設(shè)計的，他因每年提出的最糟糕的經(jīng)濟建議而獲得了諾貝爾獎。
他以一種非常右翼的“芝加哥學(xué)派”方式創(chuàng)造了歐元，這種方式阻止了歐元區(qū)實際使用歐元和央行來為凱恩斯主義式的預(yù)算赤字融資。
這使得歐洲國家的預(yù)算赤字不得超過國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分之三，這是一個非常小的數(shù)字。這樣做的結(jié)果是阻止歐元創(chuàng)造足夠的貨幣、足夠的信貸，從而真正成為美元的競爭對手。
它從一開始就受到了一些規(guī)則的削弱，這些規(guī)則確保政府如果不從歐洲銀行和美國銀行大量借貸，就無法創(chuàng)造足夠的信貸來實現(xiàn)歐洲復(fù)蘇。
因此，歐元的創(chuàng)建方式是為了最小化政府的作用，最大化銀行的作用，從本質(zhì)上講，這就是它從一開始就成為右翼芝加哥學(xué)派發(fā)展的原因，現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)看到了它是如何展開的。
After its introduction in 1999 at $1.12, the euro did indeed sink to $0.85 by July 2001, but recovered and indeed rose to $1.58 in April 2008. It has been drifting down steadily since then, and since February of this year the sanctions have driven the euro’s exchange rate below parity with the dollar to $0.97 this week. The major factor has been rising prices for imported gas and oil, and products such as aluminum and fertilizer requiring heavy energy inputs for their production. And as the euro’s exchange rate declines against the dollar, the cost of carrying its US-dollar debt – the normal condition for affiliates of U.S. multinationals – will rise, squeezing their profits.
德國工業(yè)出口是支撐歐元匯率的主要因素。從德國馬克轉(zhuǎn)向歐元對德國具有巨大吸引力，這將避免其出口盈余推高德國馬克匯率，導(dǎo)致德國產(chǎn)品因價格過高而被擠出世界市場。將貨幣范圍擴大到希臘、意大利、葡萄牙、西班牙和其他存在國際收支赤字的國家將阻止貨幣飆升。這將保護德國工業(yè)的競爭力。
歐元于1999年以1.12美元的價格推出后，到2001年7月確實跌至 0.85美元，但在 2008年4月反彈并確實升至1.58美元。此后歐元一直在穩(wěn)步下跌，自今年 2月以來，制裁推動了歐元的貶值。本周歐元兌美元匯率低于平價0.97美元。主要因素是進口天然氣和石油以及鋁和化肥等產(chǎn)品的價格上漲，這些產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)需要大量的能源投入。隨著歐元兌美元匯率下跌，承擔(dān)美元債務(wù)的成本（這是美國跨國公司附屬公司的正常情況）將會上升，從而擠壓它們的利潤。
As a final kicker, Pepe Escobar pointed out on September 28, 2022 that “Germany is contractually obligated to purchase at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030. … Gazprom is legally entitled to get paid even without shipping gas. That’s the spirit of a long-term contract. … Berlin does not get all the gas it needs but still needs to pay.” It looks like a long court battle before money will change hands – but Germany’s ability to pay will be steadilyweakening.
這不是“自動穩(wěn)定器”可以發(fā)揮“市場魔力”來恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟平衡的那種蕭條。能源依賴是結(jié)構(gòu)性的。歐元區(qū)自身的經(jīng)濟規(guī)則將其預(yù)算赤字限制在 GDP的3%之內(nèi)。這阻止了其國家政府通過赤字支出支持經(jīng)濟。能源和食品價格上漲以及美元債務(wù)還本付息將使用于商品和服務(wù)的收入大幅減少。
最后，佩佩·埃斯科巴 (Pepe Escobar)于2022年9月28日指出，“根據(jù)合同規(guī)定，到2030年，德國每年有義務(wù)購買至少 400億立方米的俄羅斯天然氣?！词共贿\輸天然氣，俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司也有合法權(quán)利獲得付款?！边@就是長期合同的精神。 ......柏林沒有獲得所需的全部天然氣，但仍然需要付費?！痹谫Y金易手之前，這似乎是一場漫長的法庭斗爭，但德國的支付能力將逐漸減弱。
就此而言，許多國家的支付能力已經(jīng)達到了極限。
Ahmad Jamal
· 6h
Great economic article. I think Germany needs to move away from US enforced sanctions & do business with Russia & China as well as others outside EU more freely. It will bring vivacity to its economy as well as ensure it remains th 4th Largest Economy in th World.
很棒的經(jīng)濟文章。 我認為德國需要擺脫美國的強制制裁和制裁與俄羅斯做生意，中國以及歐盟以外的其他國家更加自由。它將為其經(jīng)濟帶來活力，并確保其繼續(xù)保持世界第四大經(jīng)濟體的地位。
Czar Merazmican
· 2h
That's technically impossible at the current moment!
目前這在技術(shù)上是不可能的！
Myron Sanderson
· 7h
Very insightful, thank you!
非常有見地，謝謝！
BL Cheah
· 12h
Daleep Singh was truly stupid. He is not born in India.
You don't get anywhere threatening India. They believe they are immensely powerful so intimidation does not work.
Yes, offer them goodies. I don't believe USA will ever be nice enough to offer a $100b swap, but $10b is possible.
Tech transfer is impossible. USA won't empower a second China. Moreover many elite Americans are personally aware that Indians are very cunning and entirely capable of politicking their way to the top.
I think for most elite Indians, easy to get HB1 visas are at top priority. If you doubled the HB1 quota for Indians for 10 years, doubled the diversity visa quota for 10 years, then together with just a $10b swap facility, that would go very far to swaying Indians.
As for Modi, anything that flatters his ego will work. My bet is on a Ticker Tape parade in NYC with a million Indian-Americans throwing flowers at their Chaiwallah Raja.
Jaishankar can do nothing that makes Modi happier.
戴利普·辛格確實很愚蠢。他不是出生在印度。
你無法威脅印度。他們相信自己擁有無比強大的力量，因此恐嚇是行不通的。
是的，給他們一些好吃的。我不相信美國會足夠好地提供100億美元的互換。
技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓是不可能的。美國不會催生第二個中國。此外，許多美國精英個人都意識到印度人非常狡猾，完全有能力通過政治手段登上頂峰。
我認為對于大多數(shù)印度精英來說，容易獲得 HB1簽證是首要任務(wù)。如果你將印度人的 HB1配額增加一倍，持續(xù) 10年，將多樣性簽證配額增加一倍，持續(xù) 10年，那么再加上100億美元的互換安排，這對印度人來說將大有裨益。
對于莫迪來說，任何能讓他自負的事情都會起作用。我敢打賭，紐約市將為他舉行一場游行，屆時將有 100萬印度裔美國人向他們的窮朋友投擲鮮花。
蘇杰生無法做任何讓莫迪更高興的事情。
III Moh
· 11h
2nd Last para is spot on,!
最后第二段是正確的，！
Allan Kay
· 35m
Daleep is as much an Indian as Bill Clinton is Irish.
The US in best at the trickery of mindset; get a Black to trigger a war with Iraq and soon a Filipino with China & etc.
戴利普是印度人，就像比爾·克林頓是愛爾蘭人一樣。
美國最擅長思維詭計；讓黑人引發(fā)與伊拉克的戰(zhàn)爭，很快又讓菲律賓人與中國和美國發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭。
CjW
· 13h
Interesting. The USD is about the 59th most used trading currency at the moment, so 40% by 2030 sounds about right - if things continue to wind down slowly. However, my bet is that they will default on their debt before 2030, which will result in a massive collapse of the USD overnight. I'm absolutely certain that the Euro will be the most likely currency to be adopted. Despite its problems, most of the Euro economies do not carry a lot of debt (a few exceptions).
有趣的。美元目前在最常用的交易貨幣中排名第 59位，因此如果情況繼續(xù)緩慢放緩，到 2030年達到 40% 聽起來不錯。然而，我的賭注是，他們將在 2030年之前拖欠債務(wù)，這將導(dǎo)致美元在一夜之間大幅崩潰。我絕對確定歐元將是最有可能被采用的貨幣。盡管存在問題，大多數(shù)歐元經(jīng)濟體并沒有背負大量債務(wù)（少數(shù)例外）。
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Curious
· 12h
Us never needs to default on their dollar denominated debt. They can make more dollars. Defaulting is worse than making more dollars, so they make more dollars.
我們永遠不需要拖欠以美元計價的債務(wù)。他們可以賺更多的錢。違約比賺更多美元更糟糕，所以他們賺更多美元。
Elliott J. Schuchardt
· 13h
I'm betting BRICS currency at 40%, yuan at 20%, euro at 20%, local currencies at 15%, and dollar at 5% by 2030.
我押注到2030年，金磚國家貨幣將增長 40%，人民幣將增長 20%，歐元將增長 20%，當(dāng)?shù)刎泿艑⒃鲩L 15%，美元將增長 5%。
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Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
· 9h
Too early
Maybe 2050
太早了
也許到2050年
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Venkat Indra ??????? ??????
· 11h
Daleep singh is a product of colonial past, when he dictates and others need to listen.
Times have changed.
戴利普·辛格是殖民歷史的產(chǎn)物，他發(fā)號施令，其他人需要傾聽。
時代變了。
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Abdul Rehman
· 12h
For further distancing of the dollar many countries has to have a alternative which we don't have, and countries don't try to find a different way out as they try to depend on dollar.
The opec countries like Saudi may seem like moving away from the dollar but will come back to it or they are just playing hard to get.
Same with china they do try to strengthen the yuan but will buy dollars.
為了進一步遠離美元，許多國家必須有我們沒有的替代方案，而各國在試圖依賴美元時不會試圖尋找不同的出路。
像沙特這樣的歐佩克國家可能看起來會放棄美元，但最終會回歸美元，或者他們只是在玩弄欲擒故縱的游戲。
與中國一樣，他們確實試圖讓人民幣升值，但會購買美元。
Marceline
· 11h
Well, I have a theory that the entire special military operation was a trap set by Putin-…… working together to lure the west to sanction Russia which is used as an ammunition to de-dollarize countries around the world.
Russia & China did not start de-dollarization in 2022. It was a slow decade long process throughout the 2010s particularly indicated by the relentless purchase of gold.
Also I won’t rule out the de-dollarization process entering the physical realm — for example a nuclear or pure EMP attack on Bank of America, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo data centers. The dollar ends completely, literally overnight. Not directly though but by some proxy.
Let me bring to notice that there are “rumors” of a false flag cyber attacks such as banks that enable powers that be instate instruments for internet surveillance. I wouldn’t rule out someone else seizing that opportunity to expand the scope, so to speak.
那么我有一個理論，整個特別軍事行動是普京和中國聯(lián)手設(shè)下的陷阱，引誘西方制裁俄羅斯，作為世界各國去美元化的彈藥。
俄羅斯與中國并沒有在 2022年開始去美元化。這是一個貫穿2010年代長達十年的緩慢過程，尤其是對黃金的瘋狂購買。
此外，我也不排除去美元化進程進入物理領(lǐng)域——例如對美國銀行、摩根大通、富國銀行數(shù)據(jù)中心進行核攻擊或純粹的電磁脈沖攻擊。美元徹底終結(jié)，簡直是一夜之間。但不是直接的，而是通過一些曲線手法。
讓我提請注意，有一些關(guān)于網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊的“謠言”，例如銀行，這些攻擊賦予了國家監(jiān)控互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的權(quán)力?？梢赃@么說，我不排除其他人抓住這個機會擴大范圍。
Jeremiah Emunyu
· 3h
Should the US dollar collapse now, most currencies including Yuan will collapse. Other currencies have not yet gained enough acceptance globally to replace the dollar
如果美元現(xiàn)在崩潰，包括人民幣在內(nèi)的大多數(shù)貨幣都將崩潰。其他貨幣尚未在全球范圍內(nèi)獲得足夠的接受度來取代美元
Myron Sanderson
· 7h
This commentary is right on the money!
這個評論對錢來說是正確的！
Jeff Duda
· 7h
One good thing is that technology has made it much easier to not even have a world reserve currency and have a multi-polar currency world where no one has much power over others through currency manipulation.
一件好事是，技術(shù)使得沒有世界儲備貨幣和多極貨幣的世界變得更加容易，在這個世界中，沒有人可以通過貨幣操縱對其他人擁有太大的權(quán)力。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
AR
· 6h
Daleep Singh was educated at the best universities in the US even in the world. (Harvard and MIT) What the hell is going on at these universities? He probably didn’t even benefit from Affirmative action. How could he be so incompetent as described in this answer?
戴利普·辛格 (Daleep Singh) 曾在美國甚至世界上最好的大學(xué)接受教育。（哈佛大學(xué)和麻省理工學(xué)院）這些大學(xué)到底發(fā)生了什么？他甚至可能沒有從平權(quán)行動中受益。他怎么會像這個答案中描述的那么無能呢？
Jeremiah Emunyu
· 3h
Let me pray that Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam lives for another 20 or 30 years then I will ask him the status of the yuan. China cannot open up its currency to be used as a reserve currency (it will only be used for paying imports to china) because it will give Chinese exports hard time selling products cheaply like they do.
讓我祈禱KB再活20年或30年，然后我會問他人民幣的狀況。中國不會開放其貨幣管制并作為其他國家的儲備貨幣（它只會用于支付中國的進口貨款），因為這將使中國出口產(chǎn)品很難像他們現(xiàn)在那樣低價銷售產(chǎn)品。
Russell Miller
· 2h
The next potentially disastrous step that is being contemplated is over what the us and eu intend to do with the Russian financial assests seized after the start of the war.
正在考慮的下一個可能是災(zāi)難性的步驟是美國和歐盟打算如何處理戰(zhàn)爭開始后扣押的俄羅斯金融資產(chǎn)。
Zé P
· 1h
Japan got nuked a 3rd time by the Plaza Accords.
日本因《廣場協(xié)議》第三次遭受核打擊。