【“非洲之王” 傳音要超小米趕三星】


Chinese cellphone maker Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co. Ltd. (688036.SH) is renowned for its beginnings in Africa, where it dominates the market with its cheap but local-friendly models. Now, the company is starting to spread its wings beyond its traditional stronghold to other developing markets, posing a potential threat to Chinese rivals like xiaomi (1810.HK) and Oppo.

中國手機制造商深圳傳音控股股份有限公司(688036.SH)以發(fā)源于非洲而聞名，憑借廉價但適合當?shù)赜脩舻臋C型主導著非洲市場?，F(xiàn)在，公司開始從傳統(tǒng)據(jù)點向其他發(fā)展中市場擴張，對小米集團(1810.HK)和Oppo等中國競爭對手構(gòu)成了潛在威脅。

New data released this month indicate the expansion is yielding some early success. The company became the world’s fourth-largest smartphone vendor during last year’s fourth quarter for the first time after shipping 28.2 million smartphones – up 68.6% year-on-year, according to IDC. That far outpaced all of its other rivals in the top five, and was also well ahead of the overall market’s 8.5% growth.

本月發(fā)布的最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，擴張正在取得初步成功。國際數(shù)據(jù)公司顯示，去年第四季度，該公司首次成為全球第四大智能手機供應(yīng)商，出貨量達到2,820萬部，同比增長68.6%。增幅遠遠超過前五名的競爭對手，也遙遙領(lǐng)先于整個市場8.5%的增速。

That growth is even faster than the 33.3% revenue growth the company projected last month for 2023, indicating it may be cutting prices or going even further down market in its bid to quickly gain share in its newer markets. The company anticipates it will report its revenue for all of 2023 climbed to 62.1 billion yuan ($8.8 billion), while its profit more than doubled to 5.4 billion yuan. The company attributed the strong growth to “continuously exploring emerging markets and advancing product upgrades,” according to its revenue and profit forecast issued last month.

這個增幅甚至比該公司上個月預(yù)測2023年全年收入增長33.3%要快，全賴公司在降價及進一步向下游市場進軍，從而快速獲得新市場的份額。公司預(yù)計，2023年全年收入將攀升至621億元，利潤將增長一倍多，達到54億元。上月發(fā)布收入和利潤預(yù)測時，公司將強勁增長歸因于“持續(xù)開拓新興市場及推進產(chǎn)品升級”。

Founded in 2006, Transsion and its Tecno, Itel, and Infinix brands have become household names and a dominate force across an African market that was overlooked for years by most of its peers. It earned its success by catering to the needs of African mobile users with several savvy strategies. Notable among these was its specially designed cameras with beautification features optimized for darker skin tones.

傳音控股成立于2006年，它和旗下的Tecno、Itel和Infinix已成為家喻戶曉的品牌，是非洲市場的主導力量，該市場被它的同行忽視多年。傳音通過推出多項聰明策略，滿足非洲移動用戶的需求，從而獲得了成功。其中值得關(guān)注的是其專門設(shè)計的照相功能，具有對較深膚色進行優(yōu)化的美化功能。

As the company looks to replicate its African success in other emerging markets, investors will be closely watching Transsion's progress in other regions such as South Asia, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

隨著公司尋求在其他新興市場復(fù)制非洲的成功，投資者將密切關(guān)注傳音在南亞、拉丁美洲和東南亞等其他地區(qū)的進展。

Its strong growth has translated to Transsion’s stock. Its shares have risen steadily since its listing in 2019, including a more than 60% increase over the past year – a rare feat in China’s slumping stock markets that have been some of the world’s worst performers over that time. Its latest closing price of 145 yuan on Thursday was down from the 250 yuan level reached in early 2021, but remains over four times higher than its listing price of 35.5 yuan.

它的強勁增長已經(jīng)在股價上有所反映。自2019年上市以來，其股價穩(wěn)步上漲，過去一年漲幅超過60%，實屬罕見，因同期中國股市暴跌，是全球表現(xiàn)最差的市場之一。周四最新收盤價為145元，低于2021年初曾達到的250元，但仍比發(fā)行價35.5元高出三倍多。

While the stock trades on China's domestic A-shares market, it is also accessible to international investors through a program lixing the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. Even after its stock’s recent pullback, the shares still trade at a healthy price-to-earnings ratio of about 29, well ahead of xiaomi’s 20.

雖然該股在中國國內(nèi)A股市場交易，但國際投資者也可通過滬港通交易該股。即使經(jīng)歷了近期的回調(diào)，該股的市盈率仍保持在約29倍的高位，遠遠領(lǐng)先于小米的20倍。

Out of Africa

走出非洲進軍東南亞

Transsion is the "King of Africa," having become the continent’s largest smartphone seller since at least 2017. It controlled 48% of the market by shipping 8.6 million smartphones there in last year’s third quarter, well above second-place Samsung at 26%, according to Canalys.

傳音被稱為“非洲之王”，至少從2017年起，它就是非洲大陸最大的智能手機銷售商。根據(jù)Canalys的數(shù)據(jù)，去年第三季度，公司在非洲的智能手機出貨量為860萬部，占據(jù)了48%的市場份額，遠高于第二名三星的26%。

The company began exploring expansion beyond Africa in 2015, announcing plans to enter specific markets in South Asia, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. These three regions remain the focus of the company's international growth efforts, consistently listed in its earnings reports as priority areas for further market penetration and expansion.

公司于2015年開始探索非洲以外的擴張，宣布進入南亞、拉丁美洲和東南亞特定市場的計劃。這三個地區(qū)現(xiàn)在仍然是傳音控股國際增長努力的重點，在財報中一直被列為進一步的市場滲透和擴張的優(yōu)先地區(qū)。

The rationale for Transsion's choice of new markets beyond Africa is clear. Those regions share many traits with Africa in terms of their development, and offer a huge demographic opportunity with a combined population exceeding 4 billion and relatively low smartphone penetration rates. Many nations within those regions are also at an inflection point, as declining mobile fees and the shift from basic phones to smartphones drive increased usage and upgrades.

傳音決定走出非洲的理由顯而易見。上述地區(qū)在發(fā)展方面與非洲有許多共同之處，人口總數(shù)超過40億，智能手機普及率相對較低，這是巨大的人口機遇。這些地區(qū)的許多國家也正處于一個拐點，移動費用的下降及從基礎(chǔ)手機向智能手機的轉(zhuǎn)變，推動了智能手機的普及和迭代。

Compared to more mature markets like China, Europe and North America where smartphone sales growth has slowed in recent years or even contracted, sales in these emerging regions continue to rise. For example, smartphone sales in Latin America grew 9% year-over-year in last year’s third quarter, while they were up 21% in the Middle East, and 7% in Southeast Asia, according to recent reports.

近年來，中國、歐洲和北美等成熟市場的智能手機銷量增長放緩，甚至出現(xiàn)萎縮，相比之下，這些新興地區(qū)的銷量卻持續(xù)上升。最近的報告顯示，去年三季度，拉丁美洲的智能手機銷量同比增長9%，中東增長21%，東南亞增長7%。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


One region where Transsion has seen particular success is India, a market it first entered in 2015 and where many of its Chinese peers are also very active. While Transsion's brands made gradual gains at first, recent data indicates those gains have begun to accelerate.

印度是傳音非常成功的一個地區(qū)，公司于2015年首次進入這個市場，很多中國手機企業(yè)在這里都非?；钴S。雖然一開始傳音旗下的品牌進展緩慢，但最近有數(shù)據(jù)顯示，增長開始加速。

According to Counterpoint Research, the company’s Tecno, Itel, and Infinix brands in India collectively rose in market share from 6.3% in 2022 to 8.6% in 2023. This helped Transsion reduce the gap with Chinese rivals like xiaomi and Oppo in the world's second largest market.

根據(jù)Counterpoint Research的數(shù)據(jù)，公司旗下Tecno、Itel和Infinix品牌在印度的市場份額從2022年的6.3%上升至2023年的8.6%。這有助于傳音縮小與小米、Oppo等中國競爭對手在這個全球第二大市場的差距。

While the company doesn’t break down its revenue by geography, a report from Chinese brokerage Soochow Securities estimated that regions outside of Africa accounted for 50.9% of Transsion's total revenue in 2022. The report also projected the proportion of non-Africa revenues will continue to grow over the coming years.

雖然傳音未按地域?qū)κ杖脒M行劃分，但中國券商東吳證券的一份報告估計，2022年，非洲以外的地區(qū)在傳音總收入當中占比50.9%。該報告還預(yù)測，非洲以外地區(qū)的收入比例將在未來幾年持續(xù)增長。

Transsion's movement beyond Africa will also come with challenges. Chief among those is the stiffer competition it will face from its hometown Chinese rivals, including not only xiaomi and Oppo, but Vivo and OnePlus. Additionally, as with other Chinese companies expanding abroad, Transsion will face issues often seen in developing markets, such as inconsistent regulations and diverse consumer tastes.

傳音在非洲以外市場的發(fā)展也將面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)。其中較大的挑戰(zhàn)是，它將面臨來自中國本土競爭對手更激烈的競爭，不僅有小米、Oppo，還有Vivo和一加。此外，與其他在海外擴張的中國企業(yè)一樣，傳音也面臨發(fā)展中市場常見的問題，比如法規(guī)的差異，以及消費者品味的不同。

Like many of its Chinese rivals, for example, Transsion is facing a significant legal and administrative challenge in India amid rising geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Delhi. According to corporate filings, Transsion's Indian subsidiary, Ismatu India Private, has been under investigation by revenue authorities regarding customs duties paid on its previous display-component imports. xiaomi and Vivo also are facing similar allegations of tax evasion by the Indian government.

比如，與許多中國競爭對手一樣，隨著中印地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，傳音在印度也面臨重大的法律和行政挑戰(zhàn)。公司備案文件顯示，傳音控股的印度子公司Ismatu India Private正在接受稅務(wù)機關(guān)對其之前的屏幕組件進口關(guān)稅調(diào)查。小米和Vivo也面臨印度政府提出的類似逃稅指控。

At the end of day, Transsion's growth prospects will hinge on how well it can scale its international presence beyond Africa. As it does that, the company is also looking to expand its product portfolio, taking a page from rival xiaomi's playbook in venturing into new categories like its Syinix home appliances launched in India back in 2015. But such initiatives will be a hit-or-miss effort, with available information showing these ancillary categories have yet to meaningfully contribute to Transsion's overall revenues.

總而言之，傳音的發(fā)展前景將取決于它在非洲以外的國際業(yè)務(wù)拓展情況。在此過程中，該公司還希望擴大產(chǎn)品組合，借鑒競爭對手小米的做法，進軍新品類，如2015年在印度推出Syinix家電產(chǎn)品。但此類舉措成敗難料，目前的信息顯示，這些輔助品類尚未對傳音的整體收入做出有意義的貢獻。
【是時候考慮人工智能稅了】


After years of wrangling, a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15 per cent is finally in effect. These groundbreaking new rules were driven by the desire to prevent big companies, often in the tech sector, from flocking to tax havens or jurisdiction shopping. There are a host of public policy solutions that the anticipated $220bn in annual collection can help address. But even though the ink on the treaty is barely dry, it is time to start talking about a new one: targeted at artificial intelligence companies.

經(jīng)過多年的爭論，15%的全球最低公司稅率終于生效了。這些突破性的新規(guī)定是為了防止大公司（通常是科技行業(yè)的大公司）涌向避稅港或選擇對自己有利的司法管轄區(qū)。預(yù)計每年2200億美元的稅收可以幫助落實許多公共政策解決方案。但是，盡管這項協(xié)議的墨跡還沒干，現(xiàn)在也是時候開始討論一項新的協(xié)議了：針對人工智能公司征稅。

Generative AI is already bringing a host of societal challenges. Global job losses are one key expected effect. While the political debate remains largely focused on safety and security harms, various studies foresee deep disruptions to labour because of the technology. It was Elon Musk who raised the future of work on the margins of last year’s AI safety summit. He casually mentioned, in a conversation with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, that we must anticipate a society in which “no job is needed”. The reverberations of that are unimaginable.

生成式人工智能已經(jīng)帶來了許多社會挑戰(zhàn)。全球失業(yè)是一個主要的預(yù)期影響。雖然政治辯論仍主要集中安全和保障方面的危害上，但各種研究預(yù)測，人工智能技術(shù)將對勞動力造成深刻顛覆。正是埃隆·馬斯克在去年的人工智能安全峰會期間提出了關(guān)于工作的未來的問題。在與英國首相里?！ぬK納克的一次談話中，他不經(jīng)意地提到，我們必須預(yù)見到一個“不需要工作”的社會。這種情形的影響是難以想象的。

And it is not just tech mavericks like Musk who predict major disruption. A study by Goldman Sachs projects almost $7tn of additional growth for the global economy over 10 years, while expecting that roughly two-thirds of US jobs will be at risk of being impacted by AI. McKinsey anticipates up to 30 per cent of worked hours in America will be affected by automation in the next six years. Twelve-million people will need “occupational transitions” in addition to those already facing obsolescence.

不僅僅是像馬斯克這樣的科技特立獨行者預(yù)測了重大顛覆。高盛的一項研究預(yù)計，未來10年生成式人工智能將使全球經(jīng)濟額外增長近7萬億美元，同時預(yù)計美國約三分之二的就業(yè)崗位可能受到人工智能影響。麥肯錫預(yù)計，未來6年，美國多達30%的工作時間將被自動化。除了那些已經(jīng)面臨淘汰的人之外，還有1200萬人需要“職業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型”。

While consultants are optimistic that AI will “enhance” jobs rather than replace them, research by ResumeBuilder found that more than a third of business leaders said AI had already replaced workers in 2023. There is no indication that the more sophisticated versions of generative AI would lead to a slowdown in impact on employment.

盡管咨詢師們樂觀地認為，人工智能將“增強”而不是取代工作，但ResumeBuilder的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，超過三分之一的商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖表示，2023年人工智能已經(jīng)在取代工人。沒有跡象表明，更先進版本的生成式人工智能會放緩對就業(yè)的影響。

Although scenarios differ, they all signal similar trends. Jobs will be displaced, and even if there may be an economic upside in the longer term, the transition will require significant public policy efforts. Governments need to zoom in on the specifics of their own national economies and anticipate the impact of AI, sector by sector.

盡管情景不同，但它們都預(yù)示著相似的趨勢。工作崗位將會被取代，即使從長遠來看可能會有經(jīng)濟上的好處，這種轉(zhuǎn)變也需要大量的公共政策努力。政府需要關(guān)注本國經(jīng)濟的具體情況，并逐個行業(yè)地預(yù)測人工智能的影響。

On the corporate side, there are also unprecedented shifts taking place. Already, we see AI companies as a major component of the most highly valued corporations in the world. In the US, tech companies helped drive gross domestic product growth in 2023. At the same time, AI threatens to exacerbate the concentration of capital into the hands of even fewer companies.

在企業(yè)方面，也發(fā)生了前所未有的變化。我們已經(jīng)看到，人工智能公司成了世界上估值最高的公司的主要組成部分。在美國，科技公司幫助推動了2023年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長。與此同時，人工智能有可能加劇資本向更少公司的集中。

“Over the past four decades, automation has raised productivity and multiplied corporate profits, but it has not led to shared prosperity in industrial countries,” say Daron Acemo?lu and Simon Johnson in a paper for the IMF. In other words, the benefits of automation are not shared automatically. (More research is needed into the specific effects on jobs across the global south.)

達龍·阿西莫格魯和西蒙·約翰遜在為國際貨幣基金組織撰寫的一篇論文中表示：“在過去40年里，自動化提高了生產(chǎn)率，使企業(yè)利潤成倍增長，但它并沒有在工業(yè)國家?guī)砉餐辉??！睋Q句話說，自動化的好處不會自動共享。（這對全球南方就業(yè)的具體影響需要更多的研究。）

Without intervention, the next chapter of the technological revolution risks once again privatising profits while pushing the costs of mitigating its harms on to the public. Paying for welfare and reskilling laid-off workers are not just economic downsides: they signal the kinds of societal shifts that easily lead to political unrest. For generations, work has been the foundation not just of family income but also of people’s routine and sense of purpose. Try imagining what you would do without your job.

如果不進行干預(yù)，技術(shù)革命的下一章可能會再次將利潤私有化，同時將減輕其危害的成本推給公眾。支付福利和重新培訓失業(yè)工人不僅僅是經(jīng)濟上的代價：它們還預(yù)示著那種容易導致政治動蕩的社會轉(zhuǎn)變。幾代人以來，工作不僅是家庭收入的基礎(chǔ)，也是人們?nèi)粘Ｉ詈褪姑械幕A(chǔ)。試著想象一下沒有工作你會做什么。

To rebalance the cost-benefit impacts of AI in favour of society — as well as to make sure the necessary response is affordable at all — taxing AI companies is the only logical step. I had not anticipated starting 2024 by agreeing with Bernie Sanders and Bill Gates, both of whom have proposed a tax on job-taking robots in the past, but here we are. An upxed version of their plan, taking in generative AI’s progress, is needed.

為了重新平衡人工智能的成本效益影響，使其有利于社會，并確保必要的應(yīng)對措施是完全負擔得起的，對人工智能公司征稅是唯一合乎邏輯的措施。我不曾想到，2024年伊始，我會同意伯尼·桑德斯和比爾·蓋茨的觀點——他們兩人都曾提議對代替工人從事工作的機器人征稅。但現(xiàn)在我確實同意他們的看法。需要對他們的計劃進行更新，將生成式人工智能的進展考慮在內(nèi)。

A debate resulting in global political consensus may take years and should start now. Agreement must be reached around the percentage of revenue or profit to be taxable and the purpose of the tax — should it be focused on mitigating job losses specifically or on addressing the multiple societal impacts of AI more broadly? And given that China and the US are both leading AI developers and have not yet implemented the minimum corporate tax rate rules domestically, incentives and enforcements will have to be effective.

一場導致全球政治共識的辯論可能需要數(shù)年時間，現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該開始。必須就收入或利潤的征稅比例以及征稅目的達成一致——是專注于減輕失業(yè)，還是更廣泛地解決人工智能的多重社會影響？考慮到中國和美國都是領(lǐng)先的人工智能開發(fā)國，而且尚未在國內(nèi)實施最低公司稅率規(guī)定，激勵措施和執(zhí)行措施必須行之有效。

It took years to get a minimum global corporate tax base in place. Considering the impending costs to society, a conversation about a targeted tax for billion-dollar AI companies cannot wait.

達成全球最低公司稅率花了數(shù)年時間?？紤]到人工智能即將給社會帶來的成本，討論對價值數(shù)十億美元的人工智能公司有針對性地征稅刻不容緩。