俄羅斯如何解決向印度出售石油換回的大量印度盧比？
Russia has a huge amount of Indian rupees from the sale of oil to India. What will be the solution for this?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
網(wǎng)友：我想，既然這些盧比被困在印度銀行，俄羅斯不如去收購(gòu)寶萊塢。
那里制作的愛國(guó)電影一定會(huì)充滿活力和振奮人心。
正文翻譯
網(wǎng)友：我想，既然這些盧比被困在印度銀行，俄羅斯不如去收購(gòu)寶萊塢。
那里制作的愛國(guó)電影一定會(huì)充滿活力和振奮人心。
那里制作的愛國(guó)電影一定會(huì)充滿活力和振奮人心。
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Billions of rupees that belong to Russia are stuck in accounts in India. Over 30 billions in US dollars.
India was buying a lot of Russian oil and paid in rupee, their national currency. Russia doesn’t buy that much in India, and the amount of Russia’s money in Indian banks keeps growing.
It cannot be exchanged for another currency within India or exported abroad — without the permission of the Indian Central Bank. And the Indian Central Bank refuses to allow it.
Some say that’s the reason why ruble is falling.
Ruble is already cheaper than rupee.
俄羅斯在印度的賬戶中被滯留了數(shù)十億盧比。超過(guò)300億美元。
印度一直在大量購(gòu)買俄羅斯石油,并用盧比(印度國(guó)家貨幣)支付。但俄羅斯在印度的采購(gòu)卻很少,導(dǎo)致俄羅斯在印度銀行的資金不斷增加。
這些資金無(wú)法在印度境內(nèi)兌換成其他貨幣或者匯出國(guó)外,除非獲得印度央行的許可。而印度央行拒絕批準(zhǔn)這種兌換和匯出。
有人說(shuō)這就是盧布下跌的原因之一。
目前盧布的匯率已經(jīng)低于盧比。
There was a big scandal in the Kremlin because of the stash of rupees that Russia can’t use. Presidential administration was trying to figure out who was the genius who came up with the idea of trading with India in its national currency, which is inconvertible.
Lavrov was sent to G20 with the task to sort it out.
由于俄羅斯無(wú)法使用大量印度盧比而引發(fā)了克里姆林宮的一場(chǎng)巨大丑聞。總統(tǒng)辦公室正試圖找出是誰(shuí)提出了用俄羅斯國(guó)內(nèi)不可兌換的貨幣與印度進(jìn)行交易的天才想法。
拉夫羅夫被派到二十國(guó)集團(tuán)會(huì)議,任務(wù)是要解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。
After begging and pleading, Lavrov reported: India promised to offer “promising projects for investing rupees”.
In other words:
India received Russian oil.
Paid for the oil in rupees.
Rupees remained in Indian banks.
And now they will return to the Indian economy.
It’s a master class on the topic “How to extract multi-billion dollar profits from Russia’s superiority complex”.
經(jīng)過(guò)一番懇求和哀求，拉夫羅夫報(bào)告說(shuō)：印度承諾提供“有利可圖的盧比投資項(xiàng)目”。
換句話說(shuō)：
印度接收了俄羅斯的石油。
用盧比支付了石油款項(xiàng)。
盧比資金留在印度銀行。
現(xiàn)在這些盧比將重新流回印度經(jīng)濟(jì)。
這簡(jiǎn)直是“如何從俄羅斯的優(yōu)越感中榨取數(shù)十億美元利潤(rùn)”的大師級(jí)課程。
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, and Head of Russia’s foreign ministry Lavrov.
（圖片：印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪和俄羅斯外交部長(zhǎng)拉夫羅夫）
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Patriotic films created there will be bright and exhilarating.
我想，既然這些盧比被困在印度銀行，俄羅斯不如去收購(gòu)寶萊塢。
那里制作的愛國(guó)電影一定會(huì)充滿活力和振奮人心。
The heroes of the Northern Military District, to the songs of Shaman, will brilliantly defeat NATO and conquer the solar system!
在薩滿的歌曲聲中，北方軍區(qū)的英雄們將英勇地?fù)魯”奔s，征服整個(gè)太陽(yáng)系！
In the wake of the Ukraine and Russia war and US sanctions on the use of dollars for payments to Russia and Iran, the RBI in July 2022 allowed settlement for import and export of goods and services in rupee.
Imports from Russia in India averaged 85.72 INR Billion from 2014 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 496.20 INR Billion in May of 2023 .
India is using Chinese yuan to pay for 10% of its Russian oil imports, rest in rupee and dirham.
因?yàn)闉蹩颂m和俄羅斯之間爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，同時(shí)美國(guó)對(duì)向俄羅斯和伊朗支付美金的行為采取制裁，印度央行在2022年7月允許用盧比結(jié)算貨物和服務(wù)的進(jìn)出口。
從2014年到2023年，印度從俄羅斯的年度進(jìn)口金額平均為857.2億印度盧比，在2023年5月達(dá)到49620億印度盧比的歷史高點(diǎn)。
印度用人民幣向俄羅斯支付10%的石油進(jìn)口金額，其余部分用盧比和迪拉姆支付。
India has rejected a proposal supported by Russia to allow Iran to import Indian goods and pay for it using Russia’s rupee reserves because of the diplomatic risks attached to . India and Russia have been settling some of their non-oil trade in rupees since the begng of this year .
即便如此，受到制裁打擊的俄羅斯可能不得不將其快速積累的盧比儲(chǔ)備中的大部分投資于印度的政府證券、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和其他項(xiàng)目。據(jù)估計(jì)，俄羅斯的盧比儲(chǔ)備已超過(guò)20億美元，而且還在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。
印度拒絕了俄羅斯支持的一項(xiàng)建議，這項(xiàng)建議允許伊朗進(jìn)口印度商品，并使用俄羅斯的盧比儲(chǔ)備支付費(fèi)用，因?yàn)檫@可能涉及外交風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。自今年年初以來(lái)，印度和俄羅斯一直在用盧比結(jié)算部分非石油貿(mào)易。
About 19-20 transactions have happened (in rupees) since January ... All these transactions have been Indian exports to Russia
To fix this trade imbalance Russia wants to expand supplies from India, such as machinery imports, components and equipment for road construction, chemicals and pharmaceuticals .
俄羅斯還熱衷于用“本國(guó)貨幣和友好國(guó)家的貨幣”進(jìn)行更多的貿(mào)易。
自1月份以來(lái)，大約已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了19-20筆交易(以盧比計(jì)算)……所有這些交易都是印度對(duì)俄羅斯的出口貿(mào)易。
為了解決這種貿(mào)易不平衡，俄羅斯希望擴(kuò)大印度對(duì)俄羅斯的出口供應(yīng)，例如機(jī)械、道路建設(shè)的零部件和設(shè)備、化學(xué)品和藥品。
Russia has supplied armament and steel plants and other technology for decades now. In fact since ‘60s. All trade was Rupee-Rouble trade. Since both currencies were not free floating this trade became some sort of barter trade using Russian banks and Indian banks . So Rupee Letters of credit were routinely operated through earmarked Indian Banks. Canara Bank being one of them. Russian businesses imported Tea, Coffee, Rice, woolens and clothing etc. from India. Come Perestroika the Russian businesses muscled in and almost broke the chain. Added to this was cheaper and better products from China (shipped over land hence cheaper) made it difficult for Indian traders.
幾十年來(lái)，俄羅斯一直為印度提供武器、鋼鐵廠和其他技術(shù)。事實(shí)上，可以追溯到60年代。這些貿(mào)易全都采用盧比-盧布的交換。由于這兩種貨幣的匯率都不是自由浮動(dòng)的，這種交易就變成了俄羅斯銀行和印度銀行之間的某種易貨貿(mào)易。因此，盧比信用證通常會(huì)通過(guò)指定的印度銀行進(jìn)行操作?？{拉銀行就是其中之一。俄羅斯企業(yè)從印度進(jìn)口茶葉、咖啡、大米、羊毛和服裝等。蘇聯(lián)進(jìn)行改革后，俄羅斯企業(yè)強(qiáng)行介入，幾乎打破了這個(gè)平衡。此外，來(lái)自中國(guó)的更便宜、更優(yōu)質(zhì)的產(chǎn)品通過(guò)陸路運(yùn)輸，所以價(jià)格更便宜，給印度貿(mào)易商帶來(lái)了困境。
所以從根源上說(shuō)，這是一個(gè)古老的問(wèn)題，但也是有解決方案的。事實(shí)上已經(jīng)存在并成功實(shí)施了。這一次的唯一問(wèn)題在于烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和隨之而來(lái)的西方制裁。但截至目前，制裁并不算太狠。讓我們拭目以待吧。
I don't understand why people are trying to to reinvent the wheel.
If there is already a solution, what is it? To figure that out, we need to understand the problem first. Let me explain:
我不明白為什么人們要重新討論這個(gè)問(wèn)題。
如果已經(jīng)有了解決方案，方案是什么？若要解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題，我們首先要了解問(wèn)題所在。我先來(lái)解釋一下：
However, if India shifts its focus to what Russia needs, there are multiple options available. India can procure those items from other countries and sell them to Russia.
這里有一個(gè)問(wèn)題，我們只關(guān)心印度可以向俄羅斯出口什么。雖然印度可以向俄羅斯出口某些商品，但長(zhǎng)期向俄羅斯購(gòu)買石油產(chǎn)生的交易金額之大，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)印度可以出口的商品價(jià)值。
但如果印度將重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到俄羅斯的需要上，那么印度就有多種選擇了。印度可以從其他國(guó)家采購(gòu)這些產(chǎn)品，然后賣給俄羅斯。
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So, the idea now is to reverse this process. India can buy what Russia requires from Europe and other nations and sell it to Russia. By doing so, India can strengthen its position as a mediator between nations and earn a significant commission as a middleman.
這也許看起來(lái)很荒謬，但印度已經(jīng)開始對(duì)歐洲采取類似的做法了。印度從俄羅斯購(gòu)買石油，然后轉(zhuǎn)賣給歐洲。
所以，現(xiàn)在這個(gè)想法就是逆轉(zhuǎn)這個(gè)過(guò)程。印度可以從歐洲和其他國(guó)家購(gòu)買俄羅斯需要的東西，然后轉(zhuǎn)賣給俄羅斯。印度可以通過(guò)此舉加強(qiáng)其作為各國(guó)之間調(diào)解人的地位，同時(shí)作為中間人賺取大量傭金。
The conversion ratio of Rubble to Rupees will increase, and it will become cheaper for Russians to buy things from India.
If Russia gets enough of Rupees they might pull out a trick where they lend money to the Indian government for certain “political concessions”. In real terms the Indian government will be able to spend more money than they are taxed, and Russia gets whatever the concession is.
盧布對(duì)盧比的匯率將會(huì)得到提高，俄羅斯人從印度購(gòu)買商品也會(huì)變得更便宜。
如果俄羅斯得到足夠多的盧比，他們可能會(huì)借錢給印度政府，換取某些“政治妥協(xié)”。按實(shí)際價(jià)值計(jì)算，印度政府能夠支出的金額將超過(guò)他們的稅收，而俄羅斯也得到了讓步。
Alternatively if India screws Russia for some reason and refuses a concession, the Russians will put a huge amount of the Rupees back in circulation and cause an inflation in India, destabilizing the economy.
我敢肯定，如果俄羅斯在印度洋上拿下一個(gè)港口，美國(guó)人會(huì)非常高興的。
或者，如果印度因?yàn)槟承┰蚰媚蠖砹_斯，拒絕讓步，俄羅斯人就會(huì)向市場(chǎng)投放大量盧比，導(dǎo)致印度發(fā)生通貨膨脹，破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定。
It is important to note that Russia primarily sells oil to India in US dollars, not Indian rupees. However, if Russia were to receive a large amount of Indian rupees for any reason, there are several potential solutions to consider.
值得注意的是，俄羅斯主要是用美元向印度出售石油，而非盧比。但如果俄羅斯因?yàn)槟撤N原因獲得大量印度盧比，也有幾個(gè)潛在的解決方案：
一種選擇是，俄羅斯通過(guò)貨幣交易所將印度盧比轉(zhuǎn)換為接受度更高的貨幣，如美元或歐元，俄羅斯可以輕松用于國(guó)際交易和投資。另一個(gè)選擇是俄羅斯使用印度盧比從印度購(gòu)買商品或服務(wù)。這不僅有助于抵消兩國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易平衡，也為俄羅斯提供了可能需要的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)。最后，俄羅斯還可以考慮將印度盧比通過(guò)股票或債券等各種金融工具投資于印度經(jīng)濟(jì)。這不僅有助于提振印度經(jīng)濟(jì)，還可能為俄羅斯的投資提供回報(bào)。
There is no easy or immediate solution. Putin has destroyed Russia’s primary European markets, now it’s getting screwed by India and the China both. India takes Russian Oil, pays for it in Rupee’s. They then refine that oil, and sell the high value product on, mostly to the EU, while getting paid in Euros and Dollars.
Meanwhile the Chinese are doing exactly the same thing to Russia, and in the process both are crushing Russian margins. the only difference is China has stuff the Russian’s want, so even if the exchange rate is poor they at least can spend their Chinese Yuan.
對(duì)此沒(méi)有簡(jiǎn)單易行或立竿見影的解決辦法。普京摧毀了俄羅斯主要的歐洲市場(chǎng)，現(xiàn)在又被印度和中國(guó)拿捏住了。印度購(gòu)買俄羅斯石油，用盧比結(jié)算。然后，他們提煉石油，并將高價(jià)值的石油產(chǎn)品出售給歐盟，同時(shí)獲得歐元和美元。
與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)也正在對(duì)俄羅斯做完全相同的事情，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中，兩國(guó)都在擠占俄羅斯的利潤(rùn)。唯一不同的是，中國(guó)有俄羅斯想要的東西，所以即便匯率很低，他們至少還能用手頭的人民幣完成支付。
Why is this a real problem at all? Russia is India's largest arms supplier to the tune of $14B in the last 5 year alone. This was never a problem with just keep buying more Russian arms, and piling onto the trade imbalance. Adding oil to that should just increase the trade imbalance.
為什么你覺得這會(huì)成為問(wèn)題呢？俄羅斯是印度最大的武器供應(yīng)國(guó)，僅在過(guò)去5年里就向印度提供了140億美元的交易。印度持續(xù)購(gòu)買更多的俄羅斯武器，導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易不平衡。石油采購(gòu)只是進(jìn)一步加劇貿(mào)易不平衡罷了。
To clarify, Russia does not accept payment in Indian rupees for oil sales to India. Typically, oil transactions between countries are conducted in U.S. dollars or other major global currencies. However, if hypothetically, Russia were to accumulate a significant amount of Indian rupees, there are a few potential solutions:
澄清一下，俄羅斯并沒(méi)有接受印度用盧比進(jìn)行石油款項(xiàng)的結(jié)算。通常，國(guó)家之間的石油交易以美元或其他主要全球貨幣進(jìn)行結(jié)算。但如果俄羅斯積累了大量印度盧比，有幾個(gè)潛在的解決方案：
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Diversify Trade: Both countries could work towards diversifying their trade and exploring other sectors beyond oil. By expanding the range of goods and services traded, the reliance on oil transactions could decrease, reducing the accumulation of a single currency.
貨幣互換協(xié)議：俄羅斯和印度可以討論貨幣互換協(xié)議，俄羅斯持有的盧比可以兌換成俄羅斯盧布或雙方商定的其他貨幣。
貿(mào)易多元化：兩國(guó)可以努力實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易多元化，并開拓除石油以外的其他行業(yè)。通過(guò)擴(kuò)大商品和服務(wù)的貿(mào)易范圍，可以減少對(duì)石油交易的依賴，從而減少單一貨幣的積累。
Bilateral Agreements: The governments of Russia and India could engage in discussions to find mutually beneficial solutions. This may involve negotiations regarding currency exchange, trade terms, or other economic cooperation agreements.
金融工具：俄羅斯可以在印度境內(nèi)用盧比進(jìn)行金融操作或投資機(jī)會(huì)，也許可以投資于印度公司、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目或金融市場(chǎng)，將資金用于生產(chǎn)性用途。
雙邊協(xié)議：俄羅斯和印度政府可以進(jìn)行討論，找到互惠互利的解決辦法。比如進(jìn)行貨幣兌換、貿(mào)易條款或其他經(jīng)濟(jì)合作協(xié)議的談判。
值得注意的是，具體的行動(dòng)和解決辦法要取決于兩國(guó)之間的情況和達(dá)成的協(xié)議。
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