題圖：TikTok首席執(zhí)行官周受資。

Now that President Biden has signed legislation forcing the sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations, any potential deal raises a big question: How much is the popular video-sharing app worth?

既然拜登總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)簽署了強制出售TikTok美國業(yè)務(wù)的法律，那么任何潛在的交易都會引發(fā)一個大問題：這款流行的視頻分享應(yīng)用到底值多少錢呢？

Those asking have some huge—and widely varying—numbers to consider. One suitor has suggested $20 billion as a starting price for the U.S. operations. Executives at TikTok parent ByteDance have previously considered TikTok’s global operations to be worth about half of the Chinese company’s overall value, which would put it above $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

提出這個問題的人需要考慮一些巨大的、但差異很大的數(shù)字。一位收購者建議將200億美元作為美國業(yè)務(wù)的起步價。據(jù)熟悉內(nèi)情的人士透露，TikTok母公司字節(jié)跳動的高管此前認為，TikTok全球業(yè)務(wù)的價值約為這家中國公司整體價值的一半，這樣的估算方式將使其價值超過1000億美元。

Settling on the exact value will be difficult because the tech industry has never seen a sale like this before, and there are several unknowns.

要確定具體的價值非常困難，因為科技行業(yè)以前從未有過這樣的強制出售，而且還有幾個未知數(shù)。

A big factor is what would come with the sale. Would it be the whole international business and its more than one billion users, or just the U.S. operations with 170 million users? Would TikTok’s secret sauce—the addictive video-personalization algorithm that China has signaled it won’t allow to be sold—be included?

一個重要的因素是出售后會帶來什么。是會帶來超過10億用戶的全部國際業(yè)務(wù)，還是只擁有1.7億用戶的美國業(yè)務(wù)？TikTok的秘密武器--即其令人上癮的視頻個性化推薦算法--中國已表示不允許出售，是否會包括在這次出售之內(nèi)？

Another question hangs over how attractive TikTok’s U.S. business is, as its once dizzying growth slows and Instagram rises as a rival.

另一個懸而未決的問題是，隨著TikTok曾經(jīng)令人眼花繚亂的增長放緩，以及Instagram作為其競爭對手的崛起，TikTok的美國業(yè)務(wù)究竟有多大吸引力？

It will likely take months or more to settle on a sale price—if it ever comes to that. President Biden on Wednesday signed the legislation after Congress approved the bill in recent days. TikTok is preparing to sue on free-speech grounds to stop the bill from being implemented. The legislation gives ByteDance up to a year to find a suitable buyer or face a U.S. ban.

確定出售價格可能需要數(shù)月或更長時間。在國會于近日批準(zhǔn)該法案后，美國總統(tǒng)拜登于周三簽署了該法案。TikTok正準(zhǔn)備以言論自由為由提起訴訟，以阻止該法案的實施。該法案規(guī)定字節(jié)跳動公司須在一年內(nèi)找到合適的買家，否則就將面臨美國的禁令。

Further complicating a potential sale is that ByteDance’s founder, Zhang Yiming, could theoretically let TikTok be banned in the U.S., though outside investors have a say, too.

盡管外部投資者也有發(fā)言權(quán)，但字節(jié)跳動的創(chuàng)始人張一鳴理論上可以決定讓TikTok在美國被禁，這使得潛在的出售更加復(fù)雜。

Zhang owns 20% of ByteDance, according to the company, though super shares have given him larger voting rights. Roughly 60% of ByteDance is owned by global institutional investors including Carlyle Group, General Atlantic and Susquehanna International Group. The remaining 20% is owned by company employees.

據(jù)字節(jié)跳動公司稱，張一鳴擁有該公司20%的股份，不過表決權(quán)優(yōu)先股賦予了他更大的投票權(quán)。字節(jié)跳動公司約60%的股份由全球機構(gòu)投資者持有，包括凱雷集團、通用大西洋集團和蘇斯克漢納國際集團。其余20%由公司員工持有。

So far public declarations of interest in buying TikTok have been limited. Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Shares ETFs and a star of the TV show “Shark Tank,” said he was putting together a bid valuing it between $20 billion and $30 billion, without the algorithm. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he was forming a group to buy TikTok, and Bobby Kotick, the former chief executive of videogame publisher Activision, has also approached Zhang, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

到目前為止，公開宣布有意收購TikTok的公司并不多。O'Shares ETFs董事長、電視節(jié)目“創(chuàng)智贏家”的明星凱文-奧利里表示，他正準(zhǔn)備出價200億至300億美元收購TikTok（不含算法）。據(jù)《華爾街日報》報道，前財政部長史蒂文-姆努欽表示，他正在組建一個集團收購TikTok，電子游戲發(fā)行商動視公司前首席執(zhí)行官鮑比-科蒂克也與張進行了接觸。

Should Zhang and other shareholders agree to sell, a starting sales price from ByteDance’s perspective could be well over $100 billion. Executives at ByteDance last year said TikTok could be valued at as much as half of ByteDance’s valuation, according to people familiar with the matter.

如果張和其他股東同意出售，從字節(jié)跳動的角度來看，起價可能會遠遠超過1000億美元。據(jù)熟悉內(nèi)情的人士透露，字節(jié)跳動的高管去年曾表示，TikTok的估值可能高達字節(jié)跳動估值的一半。

ByteDance declined to comment on its view of TikTok’s valuation.

字節(jié)跳動公司拒絕就其對TikTok估值的看法發(fā)表評論。
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In December, closely held ByteDance offered $160 a share to buy back shares from shareholders, telling them it implied a valuation of $268 billion, the people said.

上述人士說，去年12月時，緊密控股的字節(jié)跳動公司出價每股160美元向股東回購股票，這告訴他們這意味著其估值為2680億美元。

Other investors think ByteDance is worth less. In private equity markets where ByteDance shareholders sell their stakes, the prices were lower than $130 a share, according to data from Rainmaker Securities, a private-equity brokerage. That would value the Chinese tech giant at less than $215 billion.

其他投資者認為字節(jié)跳動公司的價值更低。根據(jù)私募股權(quán)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Rainmaker Securities的數(shù)據(jù)，在字節(jié)跳動公司股東出售股權(quán)的私募股權(quán)市場上，價格低于每股130美元。這意味著這家中國科技巨頭的估值不到2150億美元。

There is also no consensus that TikTok is actually worth half of ByteDance, which operates several popular apps in China.

對于TikTok的實際價值是否相當(dāng)于在中國運營多款流行應(yīng)用的字節(jié)跳動的一半的看法，也沒有達成共識。

Some investment banks and investors are valuing TikTok at five times its advertising and livestreaming revenue, according to people familiar with the matter. Last year, TikTok’s revenue from advertising and livestreaming, its main revenue sources, was about $22 billion, people familiar with the matter said. That suggests TikTok could be valued at $110 billion.

據(jù)熟悉內(nèi)情的人士稱，一些投行和投資者對TikTok的估值是按照其廣告和直播收入的五倍來計算的。熟悉內(nèi)情的人士說，去年，TikTok的主要收入來源--廣告和直播收入約為220億美元。這表明TikTok的估值可能達到1100億美元。

These starting points assume that ByteDance sells all of TikTok instead of cleaving it into two businesses: one for the U.S. and another for the rest of the world.

這些出發(fā)點假設(shè)字節(jié)跳動公司出售了TikTok的全部業(yè)務(wù)，而不是將其分割成兩塊業(yè)務(wù)：一塊用于美國，另一塊用于世界其他地區(qū)。
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America is TikTok’s biggest market and a major growth engine. The U.S. business launched an e-commerce service in September and aims to have $17.5 billion of merchandise transactions this year, people familiar with the matter said.

美國是TikTok最大的市場，也是主要的增長引擎。熟悉內(nèi)情的人士說，美國業(yè)務(wù)于去年9月時推出了電子商務(wù)服務(wù)，目標(biāo)是在今年實現(xiàn)175億美元的商品交易額。

TikTok’s U.S. business is hitting its ad-sales targets, but user growth is stalling, the Journal reported last month. U.S. average monthly users ages 18 to 24 declined by nearly 9% from 2022 to 2023, according to the mobile analytics firm Data.ai. Sensor Tower, an analytics firm, estimates that daily time spent on Instagram grew 10% over the past year, compared with growth of 1% on TikTok, though TikTok still dominates social-media platforms in overall time spent on the apps.

據(jù)《華爾街日報》上月報道，TikTok的美國業(yè)務(wù)正在實現(xiàn)其廣告銷售目標(biāo)，但用戶增長卻停滯不前。移動分析公司Data.ai的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，從2022年到2023年，18至24歲的美國月均用戶數(shù)量下降了近9%。分析公司Sensor Tower估計，過去一年Instagram的日均使用時間增長了10%，而TikTok的增長僅為1%，盡管TikTok在社交媒體平臺上的總體使用時間仍占主導(dǎo)地位。
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It is also unclear whether TikTok is profitable. In a March 2023 interview, TikTok Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew said it wasn’t profitable yet because it was spending billions of dollars trying to silo its U.S. and European operations from China, in an attempt to appease politicians and regulators worried about the app’s ties to Beijing.

目前還不清楚TikTok是否盈利。在2023年3月的一次采訪中，TikTok首席執(zhí)行官周受資說，TikTok尚未盈利，因為它正在花費數(shù)十億美元，試圖將美國和歐洲的業(yè)務(wù)與中國隔絕開來，以安撫擔(dān)心該應(yīng)用與中國政府關(guān)系的政客和監(jiān)管機構(gòu)。

Selling only the U.S. business would let ByteDance keep most of TikTok, but Chew said that doing so might “break” the app. Part of TikTok’s appeal, he said, is that people outside the U.S. can experience Americana.

如果只出售美國業(yè)務(wù)，字節(jié)跳動公司就可以保留TikTok的大部分業(yè)務(wù)，但周說這樣做可能會“毀掉”這款應(yīng)用。他說，TikTok的部分吸引力在于，美國以外的人也可以體驗美國風(fēng)情。

“You can be an American user, you could go viral in France, for example,” he said. “If you had two companies—one for the U.S. and one for the rest of the world—you think about how you’re going to interoperate. How are you going to do that?”

他說：“你可以作為一個美國的用戶，卻在法國走紅。如果你有兩家公司，一家是美國公司，一家是世界其他地方的公司，你就要考慮如何互通?？紤]到這點，你會打算怎么做呢？”

Another issue that could reduce TikTok’s sale price is control of the app’s algorithm, or the system that personalizes what videos a user views. China said last year that selling TikTok would be subject to government approval because the algorithm falls under Chinese export-control rules.

另一個可能降低TikTok售價的問題是對該應(yīng)用算法的控制，即對用戶觀看的視頻進行個性化設(shè)置的系統(tǒng)。中國去年表示，出售TikTok需要獲得政府批準(zhǔn)，因為該算法屬于中國出口管制規(guī)定的范疇。

ByteDance thinks the algorithm is key to making TikTok addictive and fun, investors and company executives said. Buyers might have to bid for TikTok without the algorithm and install their own system.

投資者和公司高管表示，字節(jié)跳動公司認為算法是TikTok讓人上癮和吸引人的關(guān)鍵。買家可能不得不競購不包含算法的TikTok，并安裝自己的系統(tǒng)。

“You have to be a steward to change it from TikTok China to TikTok U.S.A.,” Shark Tank’s O’Leary said on CNBC last month. “Everybody assumes you’re not going to get the algorithm from the Chinese government, and there’s no question that they will not sell it.”

“你必須成為一個管理者，把它從中國的TikTok變成美國的TikTok，”《創(chuàng)智贏家》的奧利里上個月在CNBC上說。“每個人都認為你無法從中國政府那里獲得算法，毫無疑問，他們是不會出售算法的?！?br />