US. and European tariffs on car imports from China look similar, but will have different consequences.

歐美對從中國進口的電動車征收關(guān)稅對策貌似雷同，其實影響很不一樣。

America and Europe are heading down different roads in response to China’s emergence as an electric-vehicle juggernaut.

面對中國在電動車的嶄露頭角，歐美走上不同道路。

The U.S. is closing its borders to Chinese EVs before they even launch. The Biden administration last month raised the total tariff rate to 102.5% on Chinese EVs, despite extremely low imports. Canada, whose car industry is tightly integrated with the U.S., is considering new tariffs too, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

美國閉關(guān)鎖國，趕在中國電動車出海之前。盡管拜登政府進口的數(shù)量低，上月還將中國電動車總體關(guān)稅提高到102.5%，汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)與美國緊密勾結(jié)的加拿大亦設(shè)計加稅，彭博上周五如是報道。

In case sky-high import duties don’t keep Chinese EVs away—for example if they are built in Mexico to benefit from the country’s free-trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada—Washington also launched an investigation in February to assess their security risks. This could be an even more potent blocking tool. If President Biden loses November’s election, a second Trump administration would likely be even more hawkish.

以防高額進口關(guān)稅阻擋不住中國電動車進口——比如在墨西哥組裝，從而受益于墨美加自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定——華盛頓還在2月份還啟動名為評估中國電動汽車安全風(fēng)險的調(diào)查，或許能成為更加有力的閉關(guān)手段。如果在任美國總統(tǒng)喬拜登11月大選中落敗，特朗普第二個任期采取的對措可能更加強硬。

Meanwhile in the European unx, additional tariffs announced by Brussels this month will only slow the influx of Chinese EVs. The products need to overcome consumer resistance to unfamiliar brands, which will take time, but the market is open.

歐盟方面，布魯塞爾本月公布的額外關(guān)稅只能減緩中國電動車的涌入，這些牌子的產(chǎn)品尚需時日與消費者的喜舊抵新情緒磨合，但市場的門呈敞開狀態(tài)。

The proposed levels of duty are relatively modest: an additional 17.4% in the all-important case of Chinese market leader BYD. On top of a longstanding 10% tariff, that might close most of the company’s cost advantage compared with European peers, but it probably wouldn’t throw its growth plans off course. Assuming that the company splits the cost impact of the proposed tariff with consumers, Citi estimated that it would still make higher margins in Europe than in brutally competitive China.

歐盟計謀的關(guān)稅比例相對美國二十步比百步：對分量頗重的中國市場龍頭車廠比亞迪征收17.4的額外關(guān)稅，加上原本長期征收的10%關(guān)稅，或許會盡數(shù)削掉比亞迪較歐洲同行而言的成本優(yōu)勢，但不可能使其增長計劃偏離軌道?；ㄆ旒瘓F估計，比亞迪在歐洲的利潤率仍將高于競爭激烈的中國本土。
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And the final tariffs could be lower still. The EV probe is part of a negotiation: China responded last week with its own antidumping investigation into imports of EU pork products. Both initiatives invoke World Trade Organization rules that allow so-called “countervailing duties” on subsidized products. The “Section 301” tariffs used by Washington, by contrast, are a uniquely American tool that is unlikely to lead to any kind of bilateral deal.

最終關(guān)稅有可能會降低，歐盟調(diào)查中國電動車是雙方談判的一個組成部分：中國上星期對從歐盟進口的豬肉產(chǎn)品展開反傾銷調(diào)查作為回應(yīng)，兩項調(diào)查都引用了世界貿(mào)易組織的規(guī)則 ，即允許對補貼產(chǎn)品征收所謂的反補貼稅。華盛頓方面使用的301條款關(guān)稅則是美國獨裁工具，不太可能促成任何形式的雙邊協(xié)議。

The key effect of EU tariffs would be to speed up an existing trend toward localizing production, as happened when the Reagan administration placed import quotas on Japanese cars in the 1980s. Andrew Bergbaum, a partner at consulting firm AlixPartners, already counts eight planned Chinese EV factories in Europe. As long as they also use a high enough proportion of local parts, they will be able to sell into the region duty-free.

歐盟關(guān)稅起的主要作用是加速生產(chǎn)本地化趨勢，就像里根政府在20世紀80年代對日本汽車實施進口配額時那樣。咨詢公司人士指出，歐洲手上已握八家中國電動車工廠的建設(shè)計劃書，只要這幾個廠本地零部件使用率足夠高，就能在當(dāng)?shù)孛舛愪N售。

There are no more car buyers for these new factories, so the tariffs being introduced to protect European industry against excess Chinese capacity will simply create excess European capacity. This is good news for consumers, who will get deals and wheels, but bad for old-school car manufacturers in what was already a tough market.

歐盟市場購車者數(shù)量沒有增多，因此為保護工業(yè)免受中國產(chǎn)能旺盛影響而征收關(guān)稅只會造成歐洲產(chǎn)能過剩，對消費者而言卻是個易得實惠的好消息，但對本就好艱難就市的老牌汽車廠商來說卻是個壞消息。

The incumbent industry could help itself by sharing plants with the newcomers. Stellantis, which owns brands such as Fiat and Peugeot as well as the Chrysler business in Detroit, last month formed a European joint venture with a Chinese automaker, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology. The business is starting to use a Stellantis factory in Poland to manufacture Leapmotor vehicles for the European market, according to a recent Jefferies note. In some ways, the approach is a mirror image of the Chinese JVs through which most Western automakers still access the Chinese market.

他們通過與新勢力車廠共享工廠自救，旗下有菲亞特和標(biāo)致等品牌、在底特律有克萊斯勒業(yè)務(wù)的斯特蘭蒂斯上個月與浙江零跑科技合資建廠。報告顯示 ，零跑利用其在波蘭的一家工廠為歐洲市場造車，某些方面來看，這種做法翻版了大多數(shù)西方車廠進入中國市場采用的模式。

The U.S. is borrowing different tactics from China. Tariff increases need to be seen alongside the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which kicked off a new era of Chinese-style industrial policy backed by massive state spending. If the elaborate combination of carrots and sticks works, it will create a whole new EV supply chain to run alongside the Chinese one that dominates today’s industry.

美國卻從中國拿來真經(jīng)。提高關(guān)稅與拜登政府開啟大規(guī)模國家支出新時代的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策《通脹削減法案》共舉，若精心組合的胡蘿卜加大棒奏效，它將創(chuàng)造出一個全新的電動車供應(yīng)鏈，與如今主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的中國供應(yīng)鏈并駕齊驅(qū)。
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But this, too, is a recipe for overcapacity, particularly as it will be tough to keep the supply chains totally separate. Regardless of its growth potential, the EV industry is doomed to low returns by its political sensitivity.

但亦會導(dǎo)致美國產(chǎn)能過剩，供應(yīng)鏈相當(dāng)難保持完全獨立。無論其增產(chǎn)潛力如何，電動汽車業(yè)的政治敏感性注定回報率低迷。