美國(guó)股市暴跌，日元匯率震蕩不休，中美兩國(guó)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，或?qū)⑾破鹨徊ù笠?guī)模的資產(chǎn)拋售潮
As US Stocks Collapse, Japan's Currency Shock & China Trade War Threatens Bigger Sell-Offs
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
由于盈利不佳，人工智能和科技行業(yè)的泡沫開(kāi)始逐漸破滅，一場(chǎng)完美風(fēng)暴正在悄然醞釀，有可能引發(fā)更大規(guī)模的拋售潮。
正文翻譯
The US stock meltdown just erased $1 trillion dollars of investor money. As the AI and tech bubble starts to deflate thanks to poor earnings, a perfect storm is brewing that could cause even bigger sell-offs.
美國(guó)股市暴跌使得投資者遭受巨大損失，資金規(guī)模高達(dá)一萬(wàn)億美元！由于盈利不佳，人工智能和科技行業(yè)的泡沫開(kāi)始逐漸破滅，一場(chǎng)完美風(fēng)暴正在悄然醞釀，有可能引發(fā)更大規(guī)模的拋售潮。
美國(guó)股市暴跌使得投資者遭受巨大損失，資金規(guī)模高達(dá)一萬(wàn)億美元！由于盈利不佳，人工智能和科技行業(yè)的泡沫開(kāi)始逐漸破滅，一場(chǎng)完美風(fēng)暴正在悄然醞釀，有可能引發(fā)更大規(guī)模的拋售潮。
We must understand two big risks to the US economy and the equity markets - the big Yen reversal & the coming trade war risk with China.
我們有必要深入了解美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和股市所面臨的兩個(gè)重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，即日元大幅逆轉(zhuǎn)以及即將到來(lái)的中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
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我們有必要深入了解美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和股市所面臨的兩個(gè)重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，即日元大幅逆轉(zhuǎn)以及即將到來(lái)的中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
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I could have sworn when I woke up today it was 2024. Evidently, it’s 1637. Tulips anyone?
我發(fā)誓今天早上一睜眼就發(fā)現(xiàn)已經(jīng)是2024年了。顯然，這像極了1637年的荷蘭，難道是郁金香泡沫又來(lái)了？
I remember that story. That "special" tulip was super over valued and collapsed when folks woke up from their stupidity.
我還記得那個(gè)故事。那些“特殊”的郁金香的價(jià)值被高估了，而當(dāng)人們從愚昧中醒悟過(guò)來(lái)時(shí)，它的價(jià)格便瞬間崩塌了。
US have alot of rich guys. So. TRUMP will say, why worry?
美國(guó)有很多有錢(qián)人。所以，特朗普才會(huì)說(shuō)，干嘛要擔(dān)心這些事？
A $1 trillion loss isn't enough according to Yellen. She wants to stock market to crash harder, at least $2.5 trillion.
耶倫表示，僅僅1萬(wàn)億美元的損失根本就不夠。她倒是希望股市暴跌得更厲害，起碼得跌去2.5萬(wàn)億美元才行。
Big up for Trump and Vance, the sooner the US bubble pops and tanks the economy, the better.
給特朗普和萬(wàn)斯加油，美國(guó)的泡沫越早破裂，經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況越糟糕越好。
Annual GPD growth under 3% (Okun's law) causes unemployment.
Then 3% is the "zero" for GDP growth, in order to say economy improves or not.
根據(jù)奧肯定律，如果GPD年增長(zhǎng)率低于 3%，將會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率上升。因此，3%被視為GPD增長(zhǎng)的“零界點(diǎn)”，用以衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)是否有所改善。
China needs to derisk from the US and promote trade with the rest of the Global South. Poor US citizens, when they get hit with higher inflation due to the tariffs.
中國(guó)需要面對(duì)來(lái)自美國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)積極推動(dòng)與南半球其他國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易合作。而對(duì)于那些可憐的美國(guó)公民來(lái)說(shuō)，他們將因關(guān)稅問(wèn)題而承受更高的通貨膨脹的打擊。
"The Global South" doesn't have any money
“全球南方”沒(méi)有錢(qián)了。
global south gdp bigger then g7. Wait until toilet paper is unaffordable, billyboy
全球南方的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)七國(guó)集團(tuán)。等什么時(shí)候連衛(wèi)生紙都漲價(jià)到買(mǎi)不起了再說(shuō)吧，小家伙。
US hardly makes any drugs and a lack of Chinese machine parts would cause US supply chains to start collapsing.
美國(guó)根本就不生產(chǎn)任何藥品，缺乏中國(guó)產(chǎn)的機(jī)器零部件，導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈開(kāi)始崩潰了。
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Generally, the average American understanding of world events, geography, history, are way down, compared even some so call 3rd countries. Something is wrong.
總的來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)人對(duì)于世界大事、地理知識(shí)以及歷史知識(shí)等方面的了解程度，遠(yuǎn)不及一些所謂的第三世界國(guó)家。這事兒有點(diǎn)不對(duì)勁。
Sean, it seems obvious that the SCO, BRICS and the ASEAN countries are going in the right direction into the future.
肖恩，顯而易見(jiàn)，上海合作組織、金磚國(guó)家以及東盟國(guó)家正在朝著正確的道路穩(wěn)步前進(jìn)。
Jai Hind. Forget these places. We Indians like to bring our Quadruplet Japanese to the Plaza
印度萬(wàn)歲，先別管這些地方了。我們印度人就喜歡把我們四國(guó)聯(lián)盟之一的日本人帶到廣場(chǎng)上來(lái)。
Inflation is not part of economic decline? Biggest joke of 2024.
通貨膨脹竟然不是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的一部分？這簡(jiǎn)直就是2024年最大的笑話。
Just think = Yellen is the Best and Brightest of USA Academia .
仔細(xì)想想看，耶倫可是美國(guó)最優(yōu)秀、最聰明的人才之一哦。
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Japan has to ask US for permission to save their Yen. What a joker! US will not give the permission Japan asks for. So it is goodbye Yen.
日本不得不去求美國(guó)讓它存點(diǎn)兒日元，真是丟人現(xiàn)眼！不過(guò)美國(guó)才不會(huì)答應(yīng)日本的要求。所以，再見(jiàn)了，日元。
Up next Korean won.
接下來(lái)輪到韓元了。
US is trying to wreck all Asian currency before the fallout of the US dollars.
The EU currency are also affected.
在美元崩盤(pán)之前，美國(guó)正在想方設(shè)法把亞洲各國(guó)的貨幣都搞垮。包括歐元也受到了影響。
Approval or not, the Japanese still proceeded to sell the US treasuries to save the Yen and it's working this time. Self-preservation always comes first.
不管美國(guó)同不同意，日本人還是堅(jiān)持繼續(xù)賣(mài)掉美國(guó)國(guó)債來(lái)保住自家的日元，這次還真起作用了。畢竟，自保才是最重要的。
So many dumb U.S allies following the u.S to a cliff , but yet this still keep on marching towards the end of the cliff
還是有很多愚蠢的美國(guó)盟友，傻乎乎的跟著美國(guó)往懸崖下面跳，可是美國(guó)并沒(méi)有停下腳步，一步步走向懸崖的盡頭。
There is no one to blame but themselves. Everyone could see that coming and could have told Japan that. It will benefit everyone but Japan.
這只能說(shuō)是他們咎由自取。大家早就看穿了這一切，也都提醒過(guò)日本。這樣做只會(huì)讓除了日本之外的其他國(guó)家受益。
現(xiàn)在日本已經(jīng)別無(wú)選擇，只能加倍努力，否則就要為自己的錯(cuò)誤決策而面臨恥辱、蒙羞和受到強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)。
Sovereignty on paper only ...
主權(quán)只是紙上談兵罷了。
Japan are ruthless, make no mistake they will look after themselves when it comes down to it.
日本人可是鐵石心腸，毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，到了關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻他們肯定會(huì)先照顧好自己。
Well can’t blame them because Japan is still US colonies since WW2
這不能怪他們，因?yàn)樽远?zhàn)以來(lái)，日本一直是美國(guó)的殖民地。
All US allied countries, whose economies are built on US hegemony, are in a two-edged sword dilemma.
所有那些把經(jīng)濟(jì)命脈建立在美國(guó)霸權(quán)基礎(chǔ)上的美國(guó)盟友們，現(xiàn)在都陷入了進(jìn)退兩難的境地。
如果他們不幫著美國(guó)維護(hù)霸權(quán)地位，那么等到美國(guó)崩潰的那一天，他們自己也得跟著崩潰。
但是如果他們幫助美國(guó)維護(hù)霸權(quán)地位，那就意味著他們得犧牲自己的利益。
在這兩個(gè)選項(xiàng)之間，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們唯一的希望就是寄托在美國(guó)能夠保持霸權(quán)地位上，盡管這個(gè)可能性微乎其微。
?It a shame that 79 years after WW2, US troops still occupies Japan. Where is the Japanese honour?
真的太遺憾了，二戰(zhàn)都過(guò)去79年了，美國(guó)軍隊(duì)居然還占領(lǐng)著日本。日本人的尊嚴(yán)在哪里？
America is never kind to its slaves.
美國(guó)從來(lái)不會(huì)善待它的奴隸。
?occupied countries are NOT sovereign, that includes countries like Australia!!! All descions are made in Washington,!!
被占領(lǐng)的國(guó)家不是主權(quán)國(guó)家，包括澳大利亞這樣的國(guó)家也是如此！所有的決策都是由華盛頓做出的！
Grandma Janet saying Inflation should not be an indicator of a failing economy is just like saying the milk is safe for drinking even after putting a drop of poison in it.
珍妮特奶奶曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)，通貨膨脹不能算是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的標(biāo)志，就跟說(shuō)牛奶里加了一滴毒藥也能放心喝一樣。
US debt problem is the problem of Japan,S.korea,EU,Canada and all those Nations who are buying US bonds and Lending Debt to USA.if it collapses it will Collapse entire Structure.
美國(guó)的債務(wù)問(wèn)題，其實(shí)就是日本、韓國(guó)、歐盟、加拿大以及所有那些購(gòu)買(mǎi)美國(guó)國(guó)債，借錢(qián)給美國(guó)的國(guó)家的問(wèn)題。如果美國(guó)崩潰了，那么整個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)都會(huì)跟著崩潰。
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No, it won't collapse the entire structure. At the very least, China's structure will be hit, but will not collapse
不，它不至于讓整個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)崩潰。至少，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊，但不會(huì)崩潰。
?still would hurt a lot.
還是會(huì)很傷的。
sure， it would be hurtful，but it will live on
當(dāng)然，這會(huì)傷很重，但它還是會(huì)一直存在下去。
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US GDP numbers are clearly manipulated. Last year, the regime quietly revised it down after being caught in a lie.
美國(guó)的GDP數(shù)據(jù)明顯是被人操控的。去年，在被揭穿謊言后，該政權(quán)偷偷摸摸對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了修訂。
同樣的情況也發(fā)生在那些被嚴(yán)重高估的美國(guó)股票上，這些股票的實(shí)際價(jià)值根本不值現(xiàn)在的價(jià)格。
You are correct. They announce the numbers all over media, then months later, quietly revise the numbers. It has become standard practice.
你說(shuō)得沒(méi)錯(cuò)。他們總是在各種媒體上發(fā)布那些數(shù)據(jù)，然后過(guò)了幾個(gè)月，又悄悄把這些數(shù)字給改了。這已經(jīng)變成了一種常規(guī)操作。
In the 60s, people thought we would have flying cars in the year 2000. in 2024 some are still driving 60s cars :)
60年代的時(shí)候，大家都覺(jué)得到了2000年，我們就能坐上飛行汽車(chē)了。結(jié)果到了2024年，還有人在開(kāi)著60年代的車(chē)呢。
人工智能肯定會(huì)讓一些人大失所望。
U nailed it when u say China dont need US import to run their economy, they are the world's factory. The rest of the world can do without US products but not China's.
你說(shuō)中國(guó)不需要從美國(guó)進(jìn)口，也能維持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。你說(shuō)得對(duì)，他們是世界工廠，世界上其他地方可以沒(méi)有美國(guó)產(chǎn)品，但不能沒(méi)有中國(guó)產(chǎn)品。
They also have a 1.4bn home market
他們還有一個(gè)十四億人的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)。
I've been saying this for years. Americas problem is their broke and don't produce much of value. Chinas biggest problem is their customers are deadbeats. Ultimately needing new customers is a better problem to have.
這話我都已經(jīng)說(shuō)了好幾年了。美國(guó)的問(wèn)題在于他們已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)了，沒(méi)法創(chuàng)造出更多的價(jià)值。而中國(guó)最大的問(wèn)題則是他們的客戶都是一群不講信用的家伙。最后還是得想辦法找到新客戶才行。
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Sure, a lot is made in China, but if you want quality, you don't choose stuff from China.
當(dāng)然，很多產(chǎn)品都是中國(guó)制造的，但如果你追求高品質(zhì)，肯定不會(huì)選中國(guó)貨。
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?Bro. do you know iphones are still assembled in china? China sure damn can make good quality product. It always depend on how much the principle wanna pay them.
兄弟，你知道蘋(píng)果手機(jī)都是在中國(guó)組裝完成的嗎？中國(guó)肯定有能力生產(chǎn)出高品質(zhì)的產(chǎn)品，產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量取決于客戶愿意為這些產(chǎn)品付多少錢(qián)罷了。
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Sounds like the US is "sacrificing" the yen to prop up the dollar. Like the old chess master said, it's always better to sacrifice the other player's men.
聽(tīng)起來(lái)美國(guó)似乎正在通過(guò)“犧牲”日元來(lái)支撐美元的地位。就如同經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的老棋手所說(shuō)的，善于犧牲對(duì)手的一方往往能夠獲得更有利的局面。
The centennial of the Great Depression is in 2029, just saying.
值得一提的是，2029年是大蕭條的一百周年紀(jì)念日。
Spot out your favorite soup kitchens now. Avoid the rush.
為了避免慌亂，找個(gè)你最喜歡的施粥點(diǎn)去吧。
you have to pay attention to military tents and soups, for a basic living.
usa needs a bigger army for the future military campaigns invasions.
你可得留心軍用帳篷和熱湯，這些都是基本的生存需求。美國(guó)得有一支規(guī)模更大的軍隊(duì)，來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)未來(lái)的軍事入侵。
Vance:We don't want China to build their midle class off of Americans. But we Americans will build our great economy off of the OTHERS.
萬(wàn)斯：我們不希望中國(guó)在美國(guó)人的基礎(chǔ)上建立自己的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。但是我們美國(guó)人將在其他國(guó)家的基礎(chǔ)上打造我們強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系。
inflation is not part of economic decline, just wow. empire of liars keep blowing my mind with new facts
通貨膨脹并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的一部分，哇！謊言帝國(guó)不斷用新的事實(shí)，來(lái)讓我大開(kāi)眼界。
Yellen is a liar!
耶倫是個(gè)騙子！
Yellens face itself is a sign of decline
耶倫的那張臉本身就是衰敗的象征。
Who in Washington DC isn't a liar ?
在華盛頓特區(qū)，又有誰(shuí)不是騙子呢？
Think of it = Yellen is the best and brightest of USA Academia ! ! !
She is also part of "duo-citizen, undeclared Foreign Agents" tribe.
想象一下吧，耶倫可是美國(guó)學(xué)術(shù)界最為杰出、最為聰慧的人物之一！而且她還是那個(gè)“擁有雙重國(guó)籍，未申報(bào)的外國(guó)代理人”群體中的一員。
If you dunno yet, that tribe happened to own USA
如果你還不知道，那個(gè)群體恰好擁有美國(guó)。
Of course it's not. Zimbabwe is also not in economic decline, although its inflation is out of the atmosphere.
當(dāng)然不是，津巴布韋并沒(méi)有因?yàn)橥泦?wèn)題而陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，雖然它的通貨膨脹已經(jīng)飛上天了。
Vance is short sighted - if there are more middle class Chinese, they can then afford to buy American foods snd goods n services.
萬(wàn)斯的觀點(diǎn)有點(diǎn)短視了，如果中國(guó)能涌現(xiàn)出更多的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)群體，那么他們就能買(mǎi)得起美國(guó)的食品、商品和服務(wù)。
This is why the BRI works well- it aims to prosper all trading partners
經(jīng)濟(jì)就是這么運(yùn)作的。這也是“一帶一路” 倡議之所以取得巨大成功的原因所在，它的目標(biāo)就是促進(jìn)所有貿(mào)易伙伴的繁榮。
The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.
最近一個(gè)月，美國(guó)股市一直表現(xiàn)不佳，最近幾周三大股指全都在下跌。我那價(jià)值40萬(wàn)美元的投資組合已經(jīng)縮水了大概20%，所以只要有人能給我提供一些能讓我在退休之前提高回報(bào)率的建議，我都會(huì)非常感激的。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Thank you for telling us Americans the truth
感謝你告訴我們美國(guó)人的真實(shí)情況。
Not like you people are going to change anything.
你們這些人又改變不了什么。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
America continues its suicidal death spiral. The Chinese gov't has the advantage of being able to establish policy and guide their economy
美國(guó)還在繼續(xù)他們那種自殺式的死亡螺旋。中國(guó)政府的優(yōu)勢(shì)就是能制定政策，然后引領(lǐng)他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)走向正確的方向；
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反觀美國(guó)政府，卻還在自欺欺人地以為，只有采取例外論的策略，才能打敗像中國(guó)這樣強(qiáng)大的對(duì)手。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，最后勝利的肯定還是中國(guó)的務(wù)實(shí)戰(zhàn)略。
They did it to themselves. Like Sean said.
這都是他們自己搞出來(lái)的。就像肖恩說(shuō)的那樣。
Reality will eventually win over fantasy over the long run.
從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，現(xiàn)實(shí)終究會(huì)戰(zhàn)勝幻想。
Trump would want to split Russia-China apart though, that's what he was trying to do before and want to do again.
特朗普試圖分裂俄羅斯和中國(guó)，這就是他之前想要做的，他還想再做一次。
Sad days coming for d American people. Its the start of the End Times
美國(guó)人民的苦日子就要來(lái)了，這簡(jiǎn)直就是世界末日的開(kāi)始。
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It probably won't be as bad as the USSR collapse though...
不過(guò)，這可能沒(méi)有蘇聯(lián)解體那么嚴(yán)重……
It will be worse?
但情況可能會(huì)更糟糕。
?You raised a good point. But I believe is gonna to be worse bcz the debt of the US is really astronomical - 35 T dollars. In fact the US is unable to repay the debt.
你提出了一個(gè)很好的觀點(diǎn)。但是我覺(jué)得情況還會(huì)更糟，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的債務(wù)真的是天文數(shù)字，35萬(wàn)億美元。實(shí)際上，美國(guó)根本無(wú)法償還這些債務(wù)。
Countries who are self sufficient will be ok. Only those who are depended from world trade are the ones who are going to suffer. Primarily the European ones who sided with USA and made the mistake to turn against China India Turkey and Russia.
那些能夠自給自足的國(guó)家就不用擔(dān)心了。只有那些依賴國(guó)際貿(mào)易的國(guó)家才會(huì)受苦。主要是歐洲各國(guó)，他們站在美國(guó)一邊，錯(cuò)誤地反對(duì)起了中國(guó)、印度、土耳其和俄羅斯。
how is that supposed to be sad days ? That means Jesus is coming back
這怎么會(huì)是悲傷的日子呢？這意味著耶穌要再次降臨人間了。
Jesus has been coming for 2000 years
耶穌早在兩千年前就已經(jīng)來(lái)過(guò)了。
Isn't that what the biblical prediction says, there'll be 1,000 years of peace & prosperity?
圣經(jīng)里的預(yù)言不就是這么說(shuō)的嗎，會(huì)有一千年的和平與繁榮?
I remember as a college student learning economics where price/ earnings ratio matters,,,not so anymore. A huge crash is coming.
我還記得我讀大學(xué)那會(huì)兒，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)課上講的都是價(jià)格/收益比非常重要，但現(xiàn)在卻不是這樣了。一場(chǎng)巨大的崩潰正在悄然逼近。
Just wondering , if USA stop importing fr China due to high tariff, where are they going to source most of the goods in the supermarket?
只是想知道，如果美國(guó)因?yàn)楦哳~的關(guān)稅而停止從中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的話，那么他們又該去哪里購(gòu)買(mǎi)超市里的大部分商品呢？
A trade war is preferable to a hot war, though.
不過(guò)，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)還是比直接開(kāi)打熱戰(zhàn)要好得多。
Problem is, it starts as a trade war and eventually when one side realises it's gonna lose, then a hot war will begin.
問(wèn)題在于，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)往往只是一個(gè)開(kāi)端，最終當(dāng)一方意識(shí)到自己可能會(huì)失敗時(shí)，一場(chǎng)熱戰(zhàn)也就會(huì)隨之而來(lái)。
We know, when just before candle goes out blx blx with very brite light last Time and Dies...
我們都知道，蠟燭在熄滅前的一剎那，總是會(huì)最后一次發(fā)出最亮的光芒，然后就這樣結(jié)束了生命……
The idea of "American Exceptionalism" needs to come to an end.
“美國(guó)例外論”這種觀點(diǎn)必須被終結(jié)掉。
US HUBRIS certainly needs to end.
美國(guó)的傲慢自大確實(shí)到了該結(jié)束的時(shí)候了。
To your dismay, it will not.
令人感到沮喪的是，這種情況恐怕不會(huì)發(fā)生。