印度經(jīng)濟(jì)每年增長超過 7%。為什么印度人對未來如此悲觀？
India economy is growing over 7% every year. Why are Indians so pessimistic about the future?
譯文簡介
我是巴西人，我們上一次持續(xù)增長超過 7% 還是在 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代初。
正文翻譯
India economy is growing over 7% every year. Why are Indians so pessimistic about the future?
印度經(jīng)濟(jì)每年增長超過 7%。為什么印度人對未來如此悲觀？
印度經(jīng)濟(jì)每年增長超過 7%。為什么印度人對未來如此悲觀？
I am Brazilian and the last time we consistently were growing over 7% was in the early 1970s. We celebrate just not being in a recession.
India has been growing ridiculously fast consistently like China was in the 90s and 2000s. India is also has way better relations diplomatically world wide and likely will never have to deal with trade wars like China has. I predict that India will be a middle income country in 10 years or so.
But when I read comments on this sub it seems like most Indians are very pessimistic about the future, why is that?
我是巴西人，我們上一次持續(xù)增長超過 7% 還是在 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代初。我們只要沒有陷入衰退就值得慶賀了。
印度的持續(xù)增長速度快得離譜，就像中國在上世紀(jì) 90 年代和 2000 年代一樣。印度的外交關(guān)系在世界范圍內(nèi)也要好得多，而且很可能永遠(yuǎn)都不用像中國那樣應(yīng)對貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。我預(yù)測，印度將在 10 年左右成為中等收入國家。
但當(dāng)我讀到這個板塊上的評論時，似乎大多數(shù)印度人對未來都非常悲觀，這是為什么呢？
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India has been growing ridiculously fast consistently like China was in the 90s and 2000s. India is also has way better relations diplomatically world wide and likely will never have to deal with trade wars like China has. I predict that India will be a middle income country in 10 years or so.
But when I read comments on this sub it seems like most Indians are very pessimistic about the future, why is that?
我是巴西人，我們上一次持續(xù)增長超過 7% 還是在 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代初。我們只要沒有陷入衰退就值得慶賀了。
印度的持續(xù)增長速度快得離譜，就像中國在上世紀(jì) 90 年代和 2000 年代一樣。印度的外交關(guān)系在世界范圍內(nèi)也要好得多，而且很可能永遠(yuǎn)都不用像中國那樣應(yīng)對貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。我預(yù)測，印度將在 10 年左右成為中等收入國家。
但當(dāng)我讀到這個板塊上的評論時，似乎大多數(shù)印度人對未來都非常悲觀，這是為什么呢？
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Most of our growth is in Service sector which does not employ as many folks as compared to other sectors. So as our young population increases, there is a mismatch in our job market.
Lack of manufacturing sector leaves a huge skill mismatch. The semi skilled and unskilled are not the getting the jobs they want.
Even thought govt is promoting entrepreneurship (especially in MSME sectors), it difficult for small firms to compete with big conglomerates.
7% growth is good, but the effects are not trickling down (Cantillon effect) and the economic wounds of Covid have not healed.
Add to this, the usual corruption, Political culture & Climate change induced disasters. Basically we are walking on a tightrope. The Industry, Government and people have to balance it so that growth becomes more equitable.
我們大部分的增長來自服務(wù)行業(yè)，而與其他行業(yè)相比，服務(wù)行業(yè)并沒有雇傭那么多員工。因此，隨著年輕人口的增加，我們的就業(yè)市場出現(xiàn)了不匹配。
制造業(yè)的缺乏導(dǎo)致了巨大的技能不匹配。半熟練和非熟練工人沒有獲得他們想要的工作。盡管政府在推動創(chuàng)業(yè)（特別是在中小企業(yè)領(lǐng)域），但小公司很難與大型企業(yè)競爭。
7%的增長是好的，但其效果并沒有向下滲透（坎蒂隆效應(yīng)），而且新冠疫情帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)傷尚未愈合。再加上常見的腐敗、政治文化和氣候變化引發(fā)的災(zāi)難?；旧希覀冋咴谝桓K索上。工業(yè)、政府和人民必須平衡，以使增長變得更加公平。
Yes, Indian economy is very skewed and not balanced well. The lack of well paying, high skill blue collar jobs is a real economic disaster. Service sector is growing well due to connections with the international economy.
是的，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)非常不平衡。缺乏高薪、高技能的藍(lán)領(lǐng)工作是一場真正的經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。而由于與國際經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系，服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展良好。
We aren't utilising our young Labour force, China was ready when the population boom happened, they knew that large scale manufacturing is the way to go. We on the other hand are busy in doing cash handouts. It is anyways too late now we should have thought about this 20 years ago.
我們沒有充分利用我們的年輕勞動力，中國在人口激增時就做好了準(zhǔn)備，他們知道大規(guī)模制造才是王道。而我們卻忙于派發(fā)現(xiàn)金。無論如何，現(xiàn)在為時已晚，我們早在 20 年前就應(yīng)該想到這一點。
China could do that given their 1 party system. Political parties in India keep fighting to stay in power and have no interest in uplifting the nation.
中國可以做到這一點，因為他們實行的是一黨制。印度的政黨一直在為保住權(quán)力而斗爭，對提升國家利益毫無興趣。
Chinese economy is a result of cold war geopolitics. Sino Soviet spilit made US becoming allied with China and helped them get all of the manufacturing shifted from their puppets like Japan and Korea.
中國經(jīng)濟(jì)是冷戰(zhàn)地緣政治的結(jié)果。中蘇分裂使美國與中國結(jié)盟，并幫助他們將所有制造業(yè)從日本和韓國等傀儡手中轉(zhuǎn)移到中國。
Very well put. Also to add, India is at the right time to have a demographic dividend to pay off. India needs at least 8-9% yearly growth minimum otherwise it will get old before getting rich and will be trapped in middle income countries like Thailand and Malaysia.
說得好。另外，我還要補充一點，印度正處于人口紅利期。印度至少需要 8-9% 的年增長率，否則就會未富先老，淪為泰國和馬來西亞這樣的中等收入國家。
Tho the overall growth is 7%(just consuming growth), the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer...as much as it's now 'worse than the colonial era' as many says.
雖然總體增長率為 7%（只是消費增長），但富人越來越富，窮人越來越窮......正如許多人所說，現(xiàn)在的情況“比殖民時代還糟糕”。
Everyone is getting richer. Wealth compounds. Even the poor accumulate farmland, have houses in villages, and have access to free/subsidized food.
每個人都越來越富。財富不斷累積。即使是窮人也會積累農(nóng)田，在村莊里擁有房屋，并獲得免費/補貼食品。
A metric that measures this is the Gini index. Feel free to check that out yourself for the UK and India.
Firstly, stop comparing pre-independent India with now. That's just comparing us to absolute garbage of times. The quality of life of most humans has increased over time. But the rich reap many more benefits from opportunities and economic growth than the poor.
Poverty has always been a problem in India, but it does not disappear even when the country experiences peak economic growth and development.
基尼系數(shù)是衡量這一現(xiàn)象的指標(biāo)。你可以自行查看英國和印度的基尼指數(shù)。
首先，不要再拿獨立前的印度與現(xiàn)在相比了。這只是將我們與絕對垃圾的時代相比較。隨著時間的推移，大多數(shù)人的生活質(zhì)量都在提高。但富人從機(jī)遇和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中獲得的好處要比窮人多得多。
在印度，貧困一直是個問題，但即使國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和發(fā)展達(dá)到頂峰，貧困也不會消失。
The per capita income of middle class, salary class and poor is stagnant. Govt is squeezing more taxes from salary class but rich politicians, bureaucrats and elite business tycoons growing 100% YOY
中產(chǎn)階級、工薪階層和窮人的人均收入停滯不前。政府從工薪階層榨取更多稅收，但富裕的政客、官僚和商界精英卻年年翻倍增長
Because it's the rich elites lining their pockets and starving everyone below them. The economy isn't really growing just rich people's pockets.
因為只有有錢的精英們賺得盆滿缽滿，餓死了他們下面的所有人。經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒有真正增長，增長的只是富人的口袋。
There are many reasons. I'll blame the most in the media.
Lots of Indians are only educated with a degree. They actually lack skills. And not everyone is a hard-worker. I'd blame society for it. Older folks tell kids that after school and college there isn't a need to study and work as hard.
原因有很多。我把大部分原因歸咎于媒體。
很多印度人只受過學(xué)位教育。他們實際上缺乏技能。而且并不是每個人都勤奮工作。我認(rèn)為這應(yīng)該歸咎于社會。老人們告訴孩子們，上完中小學(xué)和大學(xué)后就不需要再努力學(xué)習(xí)和工作了。
Jobless growth, excessive quotas in jobs & admissions,real inflation much higher than official data, infrastructure improvement isn't as fast as expected,cities are still dirty,no sidewalks, no civic sense,public transport is overburdened etc etc. Real estate is not even affordable to top 5%. Growth is only for those who want to invest.
失業(yè)在增長、工作和招生的固定配額卻越來越多、實際通貨膨脹遠(yuǎn)高于官方數(shù)據(jù)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改善速度不如預(yù)期、城市依然骯臟、沒有人行道、缺乏公民意識、公共交通超負(fù)荷等。房地產(chǎn)連前5%的人都買不起。增長僅對那些想要投資的人有利。
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only the rich are growing, income inequality is growing, basically 1% are growing richer more than the billionaires of USA while bottom 70% of the people are living a sub-saharan lifestyle, suffering from unimaginable poverty
只有富人在增長，收入不平等在加劇，基本上前 1% 的人比美國的億萬富翁還要富有，而 70% 的底層人民卻過著撒哈拉以南的生活，遭受著難以想象的貧困。
OP
Damn I just searched the income inequality in India. Top 1% has 22% of all income, in Brazil it’s 13% and I though that was a lot. What I don’t understand is with so much inequality why is crime rates in India so low when compared to other third world countries? I felt way safer in poor areas in India than in Brazil.
艸，我剛剛搜索了印度的收入不平等情況。收入最高的 1%占總收入的 22%，巴西是 13%，而我之前已經(jīng)覺得這很多了。我不明白的是，既然存在如此嚴(yán)重的不平等，為什么印度的犯罪率與其他第三世界國家相比如此之低？在印度的貧困地區(qū)，我感覺比在巴西更安全。
For one thing, we don't have a gun culture. Firearms are difficult to acquire and ammunition is expensive. Your run of the mill thugs usually can't get more than cheap country made pistols, if that.
Violence usually takes place in the form of mobs. But mobs aren't going to riot every day. They still have to make a living.
首先，我們沒有槍支文化。槍支難以獲得，彈藥價格昂貴。普通暴徒通常只能買到廉價的國產(chǎn)手槍。
暴力通常以暴民的形式發(fā)生。但暴民不會天天暴動。他們也要謀生。
India is a collectivist society to an extent, with each religion and caste having their own leaders and internal cohesion mechanisms. So there is a in group dynamic that prevents most violent crime against people of your own group, and the indian state for all its faults is able to clamp down on out group violence through its democratically elections act as a release valve for social tensions and its police force is really feared when push comes to shove.
印度在一定程度上是一個集體主義社會，各個宗教和種姓都有自己的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者和內(nèi)部凝聚機(jī)制。因此，存在一種內(nèi)部群體動態(tài)，防止對自己群體成員的暴力犯罪。盡管印度國家存在許多缺陷，但它能夠通過民主選舉來抑制外部群體的暴力，這也為社會緊張局勢提供了一個解壓閥。而當(dāng)局勢緊張時，印度的警察力量也確實令人畏懼。
people in India have the attitude of everything is okay no matter how fucked up the situation is, even when Brits were looting Indians, the same attitude was present then also. Gandhi had to come take procession across the country to awaken the people that whats happening is not okay, you should fight for your rights. Indians can create loud noises among themselves and now on social media but when it comes to action, they will be like why should I fight, I got my family to feed. You fight. And like this no revolution ever happens in India.
印度人的態(tài)度是，無論情況有多糟糕，一切都無所謂，即使是英國人掠奪印度人的時候，也是這種態(tài)度。甘地不得不在全國各地游行，喚醒人們正在發(fā)生的事情是不對的，你們應(yīng)該為自己的權(quán)利而戰(zhàn)。印度人可以在他們之間大聲嗶嗶，現(xiàn)在也可以在社交媒體上大聲嗶嗶，但一旦需要付諸行動，他們就會說，我為什么要戰(zhàn)斗，我還要養(yǎng)家糊口。你去戰(zhàn)斗吧。因此，印度從未發(fā)生過革命。
Most of Indians with power and authority are extremely lawless and corrupt but excellent hypocrites who can manipulate any intelligent person. Our Indians use emotions, sentiments for covering the hypocrisy. You can never see this in any part of the world. Fundamentally our homes are lawless, before even teaching whats right and wrong, good and evil, our parents and entire society, neighbours, institutions all teach and instil caste right from birth - that you are high they are low and the reverse. so basically mo one cares or respects anyone as society. All the families too are hypocrites, do anything for caste and cover it with hypocrisy. Otherwise how in the world, so many invaders ruled us for many centuries. We are a very caste addicted high low lawless society. But most of the Indians will not agree to this. Truth is bitter for hypocrites
大多數(shù)掌握權(quán)力和權(quán)威的印度人都是極端無法無天和腐敗的，但卻是優(yōu)秀的偽君子，能夠操縱任何聰明人。我們印度人利用情感和情緒來掩蓋這種偽善。在世界的任何地方你都看不到這種現(xiàn)象。從根本上說，我們的家庭是沒有法律觀念的，在教導(dǎo)什么是對與錯、善與惡之前，我們的父母和整個社會、鄰居、機(jī)構(gòu)從出生開始就灌輸種姓觀念——你是高貴的，他們是卑賤的，反之亦然。因此，基本上沒有人關(guān)心或尊重社會中的任何人。所有的家庭也是偽君子，為了種姓做任何事情，并用偽善來掩蓋。否則，世界上怎么會有那么多侵略者統(tǒng)治了我們幾個世紀(jì)。我們是一個非常沉迷于種姓的高低、無法無天的社會。但大多數(shù)印度人不會同意這一點。真相對偽君子來說是苦澀的。
If you're a female I'd say you're way safer in Brazil than India, but if you're a male, things become a little different:
If you're visibly foreign, violent crime can mean way more fallout from the police than it's worth
No gun culture; the ones with guns are involved in way more serious crimes and have a lot more at stake than attacking a tourist.
Violent incidents are not very well recorded, especially in rural areas; a lot of the state infra is dominated by certain castes in these areas (varies state to state and region to region), so if they're the perps, won't even be noted down.
如果你是女性，我會說巴西比印度安全得多，但如果你是男性，情況就有些不同了：
1. 如果你是很明顯的外國人，暴力犯罪可能意味著警察的報復(fù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過它帶來的價值
2. 沒有槍支文化；有槍的人參與的犯罪要嚴(yán)重得多，而且比襲擊游客的利害關(guān)系要大得多
3. 暴力事件被記錄得不多，尤其是在農(nóng)村地區(qū)；在這些地區(qū)，許多邦的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施都被某些種姓所控制（各邦和各地區(qū)情況不同），因此如果他們是罪犯，甚至都不會被記錄下來。
Wtf are you even talking about Brazil have one of the highest homicide rates while india have less homicide rates than Brazil. The violence of Brazil can never be compared to india maybe Mumbai in early 90s or late 90s come near the scale.
Homicides are recorded even in rural areas by police. As my relatives live in extremely small village in odisha I know this.
India's rape rate including unreported rape rate is still lower than USA or brazil.
The problem is that indian media reports every crime so that indians like you have a skewed perspective. So much show that even the argument I said won't convince you and now data would convince you.
Indian media do that because crimes and negative news receives more eyes thus more revenue.
你在說什么？巴西是兇殺率最高的國家之一，而印度的兇殺率卻低于巴西。印度的暴力事件永遠(yuǎn)無法與巴西相提并論，也許 90 年代初或 90 年代末的孟買可以與之相提并論。
即使在農(nóng)村地區(qū)，警方也會記錄謀殺案。因為我的親戚住在奧里薩邦一個非常小的村莊，我對此很清楚。
印度的強奸率（包括未報告的強奸率）仍然低于美國或巴西。
問題在于，印度媒體報道每一個犯罪事件，這讓像你這樣的印度人對情況有了偏頗的看法。甚至我所說的論點也無法說服你，現(xiàn)在的數(shù)據(jù)也無法說服你。
印度媒體這樣做是因為犯罪和負(fù)面新聞會吸引更多的眼球，從而帶來更多的收入。
Do you have any idea of how widespread rape is in India? Marital rape isn't even counted as rape, and even without that it's leagues worse than the US or Brazil.
Your village isn't representative of India; go visit and ask around rural UP, Bengal, Bihar, Rajasthan, MP, Haryana, etc. and you'll understand. Odisha govt is utopian in comparison.
Statistics in India are unreliable as hell. Indian men keep whining about how the world has it in for us and then show Indian statistics, while barring a few deshbhakt types, not a single woman disputes the safety issues in India, and none of them feel more at risk in the US or even Brazil than in India.
你知道強奸在印度有多普遍嗎？婚內(nèi)強奸甚至不被算作強奸，即使不算這個，情況也比美國或巴西糟糕得多。
你的村莊并不能代表整個印度；去訪問一下農(nóng)村的北方邦、孟加拉、比哈爾、拉賈斯坦、中央邦、哈里亞納等地，問問當(dāng)?shù)厝?，你就會明白。與之相比，奧里薩邦政府簡直是烏托邦。印度的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)極其不可靠。印度男人總是抱怨世界對我們不公平，然后拿出印度的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，而除了少數(shù)極端愛國主義的人之外，沒有一個女性對印度的安全問題提出異議，她們都不覺得在美國甚至巴西會比在印度更危險。
Sorry mate you don't know sub Saharan styles of poverty bottom 70% would be people earning between 3k to 15k right? Though they live hard lives they still don't live like that.
You need to see what poverty looks like I'm sub Saharan countries, in india at least there's some government intervention.
GDP growth rate means GDP is growing, GDP is just the amount of goods and services purchased in country. Even a poor person buying a 1rs candy contribute to the GDP. This Quarter rural consumption is increasing while urban consumption is decreasing.
抱歉，哥們，你對撒哈拉以南地區(qū)的貧困狀況了解不夠，底層70%的人收入在3000到15000盧比之間，對吧？雖然他們的生活很艱難，但他們的生活沒到那種程度。
你需要看看撒哈拉以南國家的貧困狀況，在印度至少還有一些政府干預(yù)。
GDP增長率意味著GDP在增長，GDP只是一個國家購買的商品和服務(wù)的總量。即使是一個窮人買一塊1盧比的糖果也會對GDP產(chǎn)生貢獻(xiàn)。這一季度，農(nóng)村消費在增加，而城市消費在減少。
There are issues with share of manufacturing, per capita income, standard of living etc. But India is not pessimistic about it. Reddit is not that mainstream in India, so reddit comments are not ideal samples to understand how India thinks.
Some people see government making some attempts for improvements, while some others will always remain unsatisfied, no matter what you give them. Happens. Society has such elements. Not all people were happy even in Ram-rajya (rule of Shreeram). Alright.
We will improve and outperform ourselves. No doubt.
印度在制造業(yè)份額、人均收入、生活水平等方面都存在問題。但印度人對此并不悲觀。Reddit 在印度并不是主流，因此 Reddit 上的評論并不是了解印度人想法的理想樣本。
有些人認(rèn)為政府在努力改進(jìn)，而另一些人則始終不滿意，無論你給他們什么。事情就是這樣。社會就是這樣。即使在 Ram-rajya（Shreeram 統(tǒng)治時期），也并非所有人都感到幸福。好吧。
我們會不斷進(jìn)步，超越自我。毫無疑問。
You will find every sort of person tbh, it just depends where you look.
My father used to sleep on a sewer cover during the late 80s early 90s. After 30 years he bought land for 8 million rupees which after 4 years is somewhere around 40 mil. So people who invested anywhere have got great returns and are really happy.
Whereas people from the lowest strata can only see the development not feel it.
And then there are haters, not critics but haters. They will just spew hate which are also many.
說實話，什么樣的人都有，只是看你去哪里找。
上世紀(jì) 80 年代末 90 年代初，我父親曾睡在下水道蓋上。30 年后，他花了 800 萬盧比買了一塊地，4 年后大約升值到 4000 萬盧比。因此，在任何地方投資的人都獲得了豐厚的回報，他們真的很幸福。
而來自最底層的人們只能看到發(fā)展，而不能感受到發(fā)展。
還有一些憎恨者，不是批評者，而是憎恨者。他們只會散播仇恨，而這種人也很多。
The disposable incomes of Indians have been shrinking. Certain economists even estimate that the size of the Indian Middle Class has shrunk in the last 8 years.
P.S. The Indian Government changed how GDP is calculated so that's not even reliable.
印度人的可支配收入一直在縮水。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家甚至估計，印度中產(chǎn)階級的規(guī)模在過去 8 年中已經(jīng)縮小。
附注：印度政府改變了國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的計算方法，因此這個數(shù)據(jù)根本不可靠。