網(wǎng)友討論：哪個亞洲國家將成為下一個發(fā)達國家？
Which Asian country will be the next developed country?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：有幾十個國家正在經(jīng)歷這個過程。這個過程會持續(xù)幾十年。這不是3到5年內(nèi)能完成的事情。許多中美洲、南美洲和加勒比海島嶼國家已經(jīng)相當發(fā)達。甚至所謂的發(fā)達國家也在持續(xù)發(fā)展。這個過程是永無止境的。
正文翻譯
Hajo Mueller
Dozens of countries are in this very process. The very process continues for decades. It is not something which can be done in a short period like 3– 5 years. Many central and South American countries and carrebean Island are pretty developed already. Even the so called developed countries are still developing. The process is never ending.
有幾十個國家正在經(jīng)歷這個過程。這個過程會持續(xù)幾十年。這不是3到5年內(nèi)能完成的事情。許多中美洲、南美洲和加勒比海島嶼國家已經(jīng)相當發(fā)達。甚至所謂的發(fā)達國家也在持續(xù)發(fā)展。這個過程是永無止境的。
Dozens of countries are in this very process. The very process continues for decades. It is not something which can be done in a short period like 3– 5 years. Many central and South American countries and carrebean Island are pretty developed already. Even the so called developed countries are still developing. The process is never ending.
有幾十個國家正在經(jīng)歷這個過程。這個過程會持續(xù)幾十年。這不是3到5年內(nèi)能完成的事情。許多中美洲、南美洲和加勒比海島嶼國家已經(jīng)相當發(fā)達。甚至所謂的發(fā)達國家也在持續(xù)發(fā)展。這個過程是永無止境的。
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Trying to become a developed country is like chasing after the wind.
Apart from the Western countries, and maybe Japan (that has been a developed country for quite a long time), no more members will be accepted by the so called developed world into this club.
試圖成為一個發(fā)達國家就像是在追逐風(fēng)一樣。
除了西方國家，也許還有日本（日本已經(jīng)是發(fā)達國家很長時間了），所謂的發(fā)達世界不會再接受其他國家加入這個俱樂部。
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我之所以這么說，是因為發(fā)達國家不斷改變“標準”，關(guān)于什么構(gòu)成一個發(fā)達國家。有時候他們會說，當一個國家的人均收入達到12,000美元時，就是發(fā)達國家。其他時候，他們說是15,000美元，我也曾在某處看到說是25,000美元到30,000美元之間。
Well, the reason is simple. They do not want to commit themselves by defining it, else some countries that they really do not want to see as developed countries will one day reach the figure and demand to be recognized as developed.
現(xiàn)在你會同意我說的，定義什么是發(fā)達國家并不復(fù)雜，那為什么西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)家還在玩這種“貓鼠游戲”，不愿明確規(guī)定呢？
其實原因很簡單。他們不想通過定義來表態(tài)，否則有些他們不希望看到成為發(fā)達國家的國家，可能有一天達到這個標準并要求被承認為發(fā)達國家。
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You see, the table above shows the IMF’s GDP per capita figures of some well known countries like Hong Kong (GDP=429), Spain (GDP=396), Turkey (GDP=497), Italy (GDP=804), Ireland (GDP=684) and Portugal (GDP=358) in the year 1960.
Now on the right side of the table, you will realize that when these figures are adjusted to 2018 prices, the GDP per capita ranged between $2990 and $6700
你看，上表展示了1960年一些知名國家/地區(qū)的IMF人均GDP數(shù)據(jù)，比如香港（特區(qū)）（GDP=429）、西班牙（GDP=396）、土耳其（GDP=497）、意大利（GDP=804）、愛爾蘭（GDP=684）和葡萄牙（GDP=358）。
現(xiàn)在，在表格的右側(cè)，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，當這些數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整為2018年價格后，這些國家的人均GDP在2990美元到6700美元之間。
You will see that the African countries are currently similar and in some cases even at a higher GDP per capita than the European countries shown above were around 1960.
現(xiàn)在將這些數(shù)據(jù)與一些非洲國家進行比較，這些非洲國家當前的人均GDP稍低于上述歐洲國家。你會注意到，非洲國家的人均GDP范圍在3500美元到16300美元之間。
你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，非洲國家目前的人均GDP與1960年時上述歐洲國家的水平相似，甚至在某些情況下，非洲國家的人均GDP還高于這些歐洲國家當時的水平。
即使在人均GDP相同（調(diào)整為通貨膨脹后的水平），當時沒有人稱這些歐洲國家為貧困或欠發(fā)達國家，但今天，人們卻將那些人均GDP甚至高于1960年時歐洲國家的非洲國家稱為欠發(fā)達國家。
Even if a country achieves the set amount of $12,000, $15,000 or $25,000 gdp, unless you are on the good side of the developed Western countries, they will never accept you as developed. They will employ another criteria like “l(fā)ack of proper democracy”, to deny the new entrant the status of a developed country.
所以個人認為，在認定哪些國家是發(fā)達國家時，政治、經(jīng)濟和地理因素的交織起到了作用。
即使一個國家達到了設(shè)定的12,000美元、15,000美元或25,000美元的GDP水平，除非你站在發(fā)達西方國家的一方，否則他們永遠不會接受你為發(fā)達國家。他們會采用另一個標準，比如“缺乏真正的民主”，來否認新進入國家的發(fā)達國家地位。
Probably not china since it probably already is developed depending on what metrics you use. But in some things like in postal rates and CO2 emissions limits it claims that it is still developing. A little dishonest IMHO but it works and they get an advantage
Probably one of the ASEAN countries.
可能不是中國，因為根據(jù)你使用的指標，它可能已經(jīng)是發(fā)達國家。但在一些方面，比如郵政費率和二氧化碳排放限額，中國聲稱自己仍在發(fā)展中。依我看這有點不太誠實，但這樣做確實有效，且能獲得一些優(yōu)勢。
可能是某個東盟國家。
Both Russia and Kazakhstan have the potential, and would require little more than a bit of political change, along with the arrest and incarnation of a few thousand gangster / croni-Capatalist?s, followed by a few years of the rule of law, to allow the territories to step over the OECD line. Then again the necessary political change isn't likely for decades.
俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦有潛力，只需要一些政治上的變革，以及逮捕和關(guān)押幾千個黑幫/權(quán)貴資本家，再加上幾年法治的實施，就可以讓這些地區(qū)邁過OECD的門檻。再說，所需的政治變革可能幾十年內(nèi)都不會發(fā)生。
Please don't answer with how HDI is a degrading statistic, that people's happiness matters more than economic development, or the sort. That can be true, but that isn't the question. Thank you.
Argentina would be already classified as a developed country if its mortality and birth rates were lower. The day it improves these indicators, it will be (finally!) considered a developed.
Chile is another strong candidate for the title.
請不要回答說人類發(fā)展指數(shù)（HDI）是一個貶低性的統(tǒng)計數(shù)字，人們的幸福感比經(jīng)濟發(fā)展更重要之類的話。這可能是對的，但這不是問題的核心。謝謝。
如果阿根廷的死亡率和出生率更低，它現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)可以被歸類為發(fā)達國家了。當它改善這些指標時，它將（終于！）被認為是發(fā)達國家。
智利是另一個有力的候選者。
This is a good question.
Off the top of my head, I am going to say China, as there's is the government that, despite not following universal democratic principles, is actually playing an effective role in its economic development thanks to the power and control it has over the country.
The rest of Northeast Asia is already developed in my opinion. South Asia is so far behind that it is out of contention, and Southeast Asia is plagued by corrupt and incompetent governments.
這是一個很好的問題。
我想到的第一個國家是中國，因為盡管中國沒有遵循普遍的民主原則，但憑借其對國家的控制和權(quán)力，它在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方面實際上發(fā)揮了有效作用。
我認為東北亞的其他地區(qū)已經(jīng)是發(fā)達國家。南亞遠遠落后，已不在競爭之列，而東南亞則受到腐敗和無能政府的困擾。
China and Malaysia come to mind straight away, China has a HDI of 0.752 and a PPP Per Capita of $19,000+ while Malaysia has a HDI of 0.802 and a PPP Per Capita of $32,501.
The minimum threshold for a developed country is a PPP Per Capita of $25,000 and a HDI above 0.800 with strong industrial capacity, China fulfils one of the criteria and is close to achieving the other two while Malaysia fulfils two of the criteria and is close to achieving the last one being a strong industrial capacity.
The Gulf nations especially UAE should be considered as well and India and Vietnam hold a lot of potential as well.
中國和馬來西亞立刻浮現(xiàn)在腦海中，中國的人類發(fā)展指數(shù)（HDI）為0.752，購買力平價人均收入（PPP Per Capita）超過19,000美元，而馬來西亞的人類發(fā)展指數(shù)為0.802，購買力平價人均收入為32,501美元。
發(fā)達國家的最低標準是購買力平價人均收入達到25,000美元以上，且人類發(fā)展指數(shù)超過0.800，并具備強大的工業(yè)能力，中國符合其中一項標準，并接近達成其他兩項標準，而馬來西亞符合兩項標準，且接近達到最后一項——強大的工業(yè)能力。
海灣國家，特別是阿聯(lián)酋，也應(yīng)當考慮在內(nèi)，印度和越南也有很大潛力。
Malaysia and Vietnam are the best candidates in Southeast Asia. Malaysia is almost a developed country but with some parts very poor compared with Brunei and Singapore and Vietnam is starting the trip to be the next developed country in Southeast Asia and in West Asia Jordan and Turkey ad in Central Asia Kazakhstan and in a future if the country become less corrupt Turkmenistan (Gas and Oil few population and the Broker between Iran and Russia
I go for Malaysia ,Turkey and Kazakhstan
馬來西亞和越南是東南亞最好的候選者。馬來西亞幾乎是發(fā)達國家，但與文萊和新加坡相比，部分地區(qū)仍然非常貧困；越南則開始邁向成為東南亞下一個發(fā)達國家的道路；在西亞，約旦和土耳其，在中亞，哈薩克斯坦以及未來如果該國腐敗減少，土庫曼斯坦（天然氣和石油豐富、人口少且是伊朗與俄羅斯之間的中介國）也有潛力。
我選擇馬來西亞、土耳其和哈薩克斯坦。
I think China will be the next developed country.
China still has a lot of potential to be played out. If you have been to the western part of China, you will find that it is sparsely populated and relatively backward.
我認為中國將成為下一個發(fā)達國家。
中國仍有很大的潛力有待發(fā)揮。如果你去過中國的西部，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)那里人口稀少，相對落后。
However,Infrastructure, public security, e-commerce, shared economy, China has in many ways not worse than the developed countries, but there are many deficiencies, such as pollution and average income.
So, I don't think China is doing well in all aspects, but at least in the developing countries of Asia, it is the most promising to become a developed country.
當然，印度的問題更為嚴重。
但是，在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、公共安全、電子商務(wù)、共享經(jīng)濟等方面，中國在很多方面并不比發(fā)達國家差，但也存在很多不足，比如污染和人均收入。
所以，我不認為中國在各個方面都做得很好，但至少在亞洲的發(fā)展中國家，它是最有希望成為發(fā)達國家的。
Probably Malaysia. Thailand is going backwards at the moment. In my opinion there are 2 things that might turn this around. 1. If next Feb. the military junta doesn’t delay the election again and Thanathorn gets elected it might get better. 2. If China goes from covertly to overtly taking over Thailand and they can help it develop.
可能是馬來西亞。目前泰國在倒退。我認為有兩件事可能會扭轉(zhuǎn)這種局面。1. 如果明年2月軍政府沒有再次推遲選舉，并且塔納通當選，情況可能會變得更好。2. 如果中國從隱性地轉(zhuǎn)為顯性地接管泰國，并且能夠幫助泰國發(fā)展。
There are quite a number of countries in Asia that are already developed countries, Singapore is one of them. Malaysia will be the country that has the greatest potential to become a developed country in Asia outside those countries. India also has the potential, but the path they took currently are not close enough to become developed.
亞洲已經(jīng)有相當多的發(fā)達國家，新加坡就是其中之一。馬來西亞將在這些國家之外，成為最具潛力成為發(fā)達國家的亞洲國家。印度也有潛力，但目前他們所采取的發(fā)展道路距離成為發(fā)達國家還不夠接近。
I would say Chile.
According to the latest Human Development Index, which measures the state of development of a country based on education, health, and income per capita of its citizens, Chile ranked 35th, better than some developed countries in the EU such as Portugal and Slovakia.
Based on GDP per capita, they have also done quite well, where they successfully attained a similar level to several EU countries such as Croatia.
我會說是智利。
根據(jù)最新的人類發(fā)展指數(shù)（HDI），該指數(shù)衡量一個國家在教育、健康和人均收入等方面的發(fā)展狀況，智利排名第35位，超過了一些歐盟發(fā)達國家，如葡萄牙和斯洛伐克。
根據(jù)人均GDP，他們也表現(xiàn)得相當不錯，成功達到了與一些歐盟國家如克羅地亞相似的水平。
The combination of relatively excellent educational attainment and health, moderately high income per capita, and good governance makes Chile just one step more from becoming a developed country.
智利在腐敗問題上也相對干凈。在最新的腐敗感知指數(shù)中，他們排名第26位，明顯優(yōu)于一些成熟的歐洲國家，如西班牙和意大利。
相對較高的教育水平和健康狀況、中等偏上的人均收入以及良好的治理，使得智利距離成為發(fā)達國家僅差一步。
I don’t know but I expect that China, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to become the newly developed nations, although it depends heavily on how these governments will go through.
我不確定，但我預(yù)計中國、馬來西亞、泰國、韓國、沙特阿拉伯和土耳其將成為新的發(fā)達國家，盡管這在很大程度上取決于這些政府如何應(yīng)對未來的挑戰(zhàn)。
中國自1978年以來一直按照相同的改革結(jié)構(gòu)進行發(fā)展，但最近對名人、大型公司和其他私營行業(yè)的打壓使這一前景變得不確定。不過，中國經(jīng)濟規(guī)模龐大，且至關(guān)重要，因此我看不出為什么中國不會成為新的發(fā)達國家。
土耳其有些不幸，因為該國由一位DC者統(tǒng)治，他認為降低利率將創(chuàng)造經(jīng)濟繁榮。然而，截至2021年，土耳其的經(jīng)濟正受到近60%高通脹率的困擾。埃爾多安最近解雇了央行行長，但拒絕提高利率，因此除非埃爾多安發(fā)生重大健康問題，否則土耳其不太可能復(fù)蘇。
Malaysia also has huge potential but it will need to break away from the middle-income trap. Thailand is also the same in this issue. These nations have largely exposed their weaknesses on managing microeconomies.
韓國的前景最為光明，因為該國擁有高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)和相對熟練的勞動力。此外，韓國人對待工作的態(tài)度也非常認真。
馬來西亞也有巨大的潛力，但它需要突破中等收入陷阱。泰國在這方面也面臨同樣的問題。這些國家在管理微觀經(jīng)濟方面暴露了很大的弱點。
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沙特阿拉伯足夠富裕，擁有豐富的石油資源，有潛力成為一個重要的經(jīng)濟強國，但沙特阿拉伯的問題在于缺乏熟練的勞動力，且其經(jīng)濟在海灣國家中是最不多樣化的。此外，沙特的極權(quán)主義和廣泛的打壓措施使商界人士感到困惑。沙特阿拉伯曾試圖舉辦大型國際體育賽事以粉飾形象，但由于沙特人不愿意學(xué)習(xí)如何工作，且擔心政府干預(yù)，這并未能吸引更多的投資者。阿爾沙特家族并不以寬容對待商業(yè)事務(wù)而著稱。
其他有潛力崛起成為下一個“亞洲四小龍”的國家包括斯里蘭卡、阿曼、約旦、印度、印尼、阿塞拜疆、菲律賓、越南、巴基斯坦、哈薩克斯坦和孟加拉國，但這將需要時間。
My guess?
Not being biased here. Only two candidates. Malaysia and China.
Both are industrialized countries. Both have the human and natural resources to make it happen in the next 10 years. They have internal problems that need to be addressed but barring war and economic collapse, i see it happening.
我的猜測？
我并不是有偏見。只有兩個候選國——馬來西亞和中國。
這兩個國家都是工業(yè)化的國家，都擁有足夠的人力和自然資源，在未來10年內(nèi)實現(xiàn)這一目標。它們都面臨需要解決的內(nèi)部問題，但如果不發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭或經(jīng)濟崩潰，我認為這是可能實現(xiàn)的。
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像泰國、印度尼西亞和越南這樣的國家也是非常有潛力的候選國。但它們近年來的軌跡有所受限。政治穩(wěn)定性很重要（注意，我說的是穩(wěn)定性，而不是問責制）。
Asia is a pretty exciting place to be right now
但這是我的一點看法。整體來說，亞洲將在未來10年經(jīng)歷一場經(jīng)濟繁榮。幾乎每個國家都會得到提升。戰(zhàn)爭不會太多（幾次爆炸不會妨礙人們），內(nèi)部政治局勢相對可預(yù)測，商業(yè)環(huán)境友好，區(qū)域物流和交通整合，法規(guī)逐步簡化。
現(xiàn)在，亞洲是一個非常令人興奮的地方。