QA問答：韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)會超越日本嗎？
Will the South Korean economy overtake Japan's?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：這是可能的，但極不可能。韓國人口為5000萬，日本為1.27億。這就像墨西哥試圖與美國競爭一樣。韓國的GDP人均水平才剛剛開始接近日本，而且由于人口下降，兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)在長期內(nèi)都會停滯。因此，這幾乎是不可能的。
正文翻譯
Anonymous
Its possible but extremely unlikely. South Korea has a population of 50 million, Japan 127 million. It would be like Mexico trying to compete with the USA.
South Korea has only just begun to match Japan on a GDP per capita basis, and both economies will stagnate in the long term because of their population declines. So it would be almost impossible.
這是可能的，但極不可能。韓國人口為5000萬，日本為1.27億。這就像墨西哥試圖與美國競爭一樣。
韓國的GDP人均水平才剛剛開始接近日本，而且由于人口下降，兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)在長期內(nèi)都會停滯。因此，這幾乎是不可能的。
Its possible but extremely unlikely. South Korea has a population of 50 million, Japan 127 million. It would be like Mexico trying to compete with the USA.
South Korea has only just begun to match Japan on a GDP per capita basis, and both economies will stagnate in the long term because of their population declines. So it would be almost impossible.
這是可能的，但極不可能。韓國人口為5000萬，日本為1.27億。這就像墨西哥試圖與美國競爭一樣。
韓國的GDP人均水平才剛剛開始接近日本，而且由于人口下降，兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)在長期內(nèi)都會停滯。因此，這幾乎是不可能的。
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No, it won’t.
At the time of writing in January 2025, the South Korean economy is in very bad shape for two reasons:
不，不會的。
截至2025年1月，韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)因以下兩個原因處境非常糟糕：
中國是韓國最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，但韓國的盟友美國希望韓國公司（如三星）停止向中國公司出售電子元件和其他商品，理由是安全問題。因此，韓國必須做出選擇：是為了討好主要盟友犧牲自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益，還是繼續(xù)向中國公司出售商品以保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運轉(zhuǎn)？
I believe the glory days of South Korea are over, and it will begin a long and slow economic slide.
2.關(guān)于尹總統(tǒng)試圖在2024年12月3日宣布戒嚴(yán)，韓國正面臨著一場重大的政治和憲法危機，這使得韓國社會陷入癱瘓，主要分歧逐漸顯現(xiàn)。
我認(rèn)為韓國的輝煌時代已經(jīng)過去，它將開始一場漫長而緩慢的經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡。
日本同樣面臨來自美國的壓力，要求其對中國采取強硬立場，但日本政府的分歧遠(yuǎn)不如韓國嚴(yán)重。
Based on the two countries' current position and recent growth rates, South Korea is likely to surpass Japan in terms of per capita GDP adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity before 2020. At 2011 PPP, South Korea's per capita GDP was about 9 percent lower than Japan's in 2013 - $32,684 vs $35,614. But South Korea's per capita GDP grew much faster than Japan's over the previous 10 years - 2.5% per year vs 0.5% per year. If those growth rates continue into the future, South Korea would overtake Japan on this measure in 2018.
Of course, this is simply a projection, not a prediction.
根據(jù)兩國當(dāng)前的位置和近期的增長率，韓國有可能在2020年前按購買力平價調(diào)整的人均GDP超過日本。根據(jù)2011年P(guān)PP數(shù)據(jù)，韓國的人均GDP在2013年比日本低約9％——32,684美元對35,614美元。但在過去10年中，韓國的人均GDP增長速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過日本——每年增長2.5％，而日本每年增長0.5％。如果這些增長率持續(xù)下去，韓國在2018年就會在人均GDP上超過日本。
當(dāng)然，這只是一個預(yù)測，而不是預(yù)言。
Very unlikely.
Their population is no where near the japanese population and to make matters worst, their birthrate is THE LOWEST in the world! Their Population is ageing and is getting smaller at a much faster rate than the Japanese.
Its going to take something close to a miracle for them to overtake the Japanese economy.
非常不可能。
他們的人口遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及日本，而且更糟的是，他們的出生率是全球最低的！他們的人口在迅速老齡化，而且人口減少的速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過日本。
他們要超越日本經(jīng)濟(jì)，幾乎需要奇跡般的事情發(fā)生。
Unlikely. They’re now both in population decline, but Japan has a bigger base population, and the fertility rate is higher, so there’s little likelihood that Korea can overtake it. If Korea suddenly doubled its productivity somehow, it could overtake Japan, or if it decided to accept immigration, it could overtake Japan, but it's not going to do either of those things. So the most likely outcome will be that it will decline relative to Japan / Japan will pull farther ahead over the next decade.
不太可能?，F(xiàn)在兩國都在經(jīng)歷人口下降，但日本的基礎(chǔ)人口更大，生育率也更高，因此韓國超越日本的可能性很小。如果韓國能夠以某種方式突然使生產(chǎn)力翻倍，或者如果它決定接受移民，可能有機會超過日本，但它不會做出這兩種選擇。所以最可能的結(jié)果是，韓國相對于日本將會下降，或者日本將在未來十年進(jìn)一步拉開差距。
Possible, but I doubt it. Japan’s GDP is three times larger than South Korea and both are growing at roughly the same percentage rate close to zero. $5.06 trillion vs $1.63 trillion. (actually South Korea’s growth rate has been slightly negative over the last 3 years)
有可能，但我對此表示懷疑。日本的GDP是韓國的三倍，而且兩國的增長率差不多，接近零。5.06萬億美元對1.63萬億美元。（實際上，韓國過去三年的增長率略有負(fù)增長）
Both nations have similar access to resources and have similar intellectual talent and similar economies. The two are peers. Both are strong members of the American sphere of influence in the region and both are attached to the Western world and its trade. Both are members of the West.
So they will likely trade places over time as to who is on top but will be more or less the same in terms of economy and military power.
兩國在資源獲取、智力人才和經(jīng)濟(jì)方面都相似，屬于同級別國家。兩國都是美國在該地區(qū)影響力的重要成員，且都與西方世界及其貿(mào)易緊密相連。兩國都是西方的成員。
所以，隨著時間的推移，它們可能會交換位置，誰占據(jù)上風(fēng)，但在經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事實力上將大致相同。
Thanks for request.
In theory anything is possible, however to accomplish this will require a huge of effort by South Korea and bad luck for Japan.
South Koreas economy is 1/3rd of Japans. However Japan’s population is old and declining. BY 2100 Japan’s population will be down to 50 million, a 60% drop from now.
感謝您的提問。
理論上，任何事情都是可能的，但要實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，韓國需要付出巨大的努力，而日本則需要遭遇不幸。
韓國的經(jīng)濟(jì)是日本的三分之一。然而，日本的老齡化問題嚴(yán)重，人口在下降。到2100年，日本的人口預(yù)計將下降到5000萬，比現(xiàn)在減少60%。
韓國的人口在這個世紀(jì)也預(yù)計會下降，到2100年仍然會比日本少。假設(shè)韓國沒有大規(guī)模的移民潮來逆轉(zhuǎn)這一趨勢。如果韓國能夠做到這一點，也許他們可以超過日本，但這將是極其困難的
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A Korean would love to say Japan's economy will crash, Korea will rise, and colonize Japan. Nope. Korea's economy won't catch up. The world changed. China entered, growth slowed. South Korea's GDP growth is 3%. Korea's population ages; the birth rate is low. Wages will soar; hiring will decline. North Korea's belligerence affects investors. Japan's population is bigger. Even with reunification, Japan's population surpasses Korea's. South Korea will be a shadow of Japan, half the size, unless reunification and reforms occur. Japan will stem decline. China will be the regional power. India will be close. South Korea and Japan will move closer to China. Chinese, English, Spanish, French, Japanese remain. More information about this subject is in my biography descxtion.
有些韓國人可能會喜歡說日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)會崩潰，韓國會崛起并殖民日本。但事實并非如此。韓國的經(jīng)濟(jì)趕不上日本。世界已經(jīng)發(fā)生變化，中國崛起，增長放緩。韓國的GDP增長率為3%。韓國人口老齡化，出生率低。工資將飆升，招聘將減少。北朝鮮的敵對態(tài)度影響投資者。日本的人口更大。即使統(tǒng)一，日本的人口也會超過韓國。除非發(fā)生統(tǒng)一和改革，否則韓國將成為日本的影子，規(guī)模是日本的一半。日本將遏制人口下降，中國將成為地區(qū)大國，印度將緊隨其后。韓國和日本將更加接近中國。中文、英語、西班牙語、法語和日語仍將存在。有關(guān)這個話題的更多信息可以在我的個人簡介中找到。
Why do you, the Korean anti-Japanese activists, always try to deprive anything from Japan? The Korean Peninsula was the most beneficiaries of Japanee investments and political reforms in the 20th century. The Koreans constantly denounce the Japanese, and demand on apologies and money, because the Japanese had been generous and provided them with a variety of things.
你們這些反日的韓國激進(jìn)分子，為什么總是試圖剝奪日本的一切？朝鮮半島在20世紀(jì)是日本投資和政治改革的最大受益者。韓國人不斷譴責(zé)日本，要求道歉和賠償，因為日本曾慷慨地為他們提供了各種幫助。
韓國人需要面對他們的真實歷史，感恩他國的恩惠。他們的自私和貪婪只會惡化國際關(guān)系。由于韓國的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況已經(jīng)改善，它應(yīng)當(dāng)像日本長期以來所做的那樣，為發(fā)展中國家和國際組織做出更多貢獻(xiàn)。
In terms of total GDP, it won’t be possible unless Japan really goes into bankruptcy like Greece. In terms of GDP per capita, its yes or not because South Korea already surpassed Japan in terms of GDP per capita and average wage at PPP. Depending on exchange rate, they may also surpass Japan in nominal term as they are not that far off anyway. Japan’s GDP per capita at nominal term is usually higher given that Japanese Yen is almost always stronger than Korean Won. If either Yen becomes depreciated to let say 125 yen/USD or Won becomes appreciated to let say 950 won/USD then their places will be changed. It really depends on exchange rate. But again, given that Japan has 2.5x~ population, they may not surpass in aggregate level.
從總GDP來看，除非日本真的像希臘一樣破產(chǎn)，否則這是不可能的。從人均GDP來看，韓國已經(jīng)在購買力平價下超越了日本，且平均工資也更高。根據(jù)匯率的變化，他們也可能在名義GDP上超過日本，因為兩者差距并不大。日本的名義GDP人均通常較高，因為日元幾乎總是比韓元更強。如果日元貶值到125日元/USD，或者韓元升值到950韓元/USD，那么它們的排名可能會發(fā)生變化。這真的取決于匯率。但再說一次，鑒于日本有2.5倍左右的人口，它們在總量上可能不會超過。
I’m not so sure about that.
Toyota is to Japan as Samsung is to S. Korea. This question may have popped up as Toyota is going through a rough patch due to China’s competitive EV offsetting their sales. So don’t blow your horns just yet.
China may do a similar number on the micro chips which Samsung is dependent upon. When that happens, it’s back to square one.
我不太確定這一點。
豐田對日本來說，就像三星對韓國一樣。這個問題可能是因為豐田目前由于中國競爭對手的電動汽車影響，銷售出現(xiàn)了下滑。所以別急著吹噓。
中國可能會在微芯片方面做出類似的影響，而三星正是依賴于此。一旦那樣發(fā)生，經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會回到原點。
There is absolutely no possibility that South Korea can. South Korean economy is currently in decline. the degree of dependence upon foreign trade is almost 90% of its annaul GDP, which means it’s subject to global economic crisis. Plus, the only thing South Korea can beat Japan is Samsung’s semi-conductor industry. That means if semi-conductor industry is in decline, the economy would fall down. South Korea has a lot of corruption and defects behind its prosperity. Whereas, Japan has a very rigid, strong fundamental.
韓國完全沒有可能。韓國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前正在衰退。其對外貿(mào)的依賴度幾乎占其年GDP的90%，這意味著它容易受到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機的影響。而且，韓國能超越日本的唯一領(lǐng)域就是三星的半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)。這意味著如果半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)衰退，經(jīng)濟(jì)就會崩潰。韓國的繁榮背后有很多腐敗和缺陷。而日本有著非常堅實的基礎(chǔ)。
Korea’s economy will probably never surpass China’s in size, but who cares? The point isn’t the size of an economy but what you do with it. Median wealth per capita is $119,999 in Japan, $93,141 in Korea and $28,258 in China. China might have the biggest economy, but where would you want to live?
韓國的經(jīng)濟(jì)可能永遠(yuǎn)無法超過中國的規(guī)模，但誰在乎呢？關(guān)鍵不在于經(jīng)濟(jì)的大小，而在于你如何利用它。日本的人均財富中位數(shù)為119,999美元，韓國為93,141美元，中國為28,258美元。中國可能擁有世界上最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但你會想在哪兒生活？
Both South Korea and Japan economy are in a limp because of their breakup bilateral trade with China.
Both countries are looking who will fail first. My opinion, South Korea economy is slightly better than Japan because the south has more manufacturing in China than Japan. Till today I feel both country’s leader do not know the different between creating a fruitful economy but choose starting a trade war that could cause more suffering towards their economy.
由于與中國的雙邊貿(mào)易破裂，韓國和日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)都處于停滯狀態(tài)。兩國都在看誰先失敗。我的看法是，韓國的經(jīng)濟(jì)稍微優(yōu)于日本，因為韓國在中國的制造業(yè)比日本多。直到今天，我覺得兩國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人并不明白如何創(chuàng)造一個富有成果的經(jīng)濟(jì)，而是選擇開啟一場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，這可能會導(dǎo)致更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)痛苦。
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I wish all World leader know the important of building relationship that is important for their nation economy and its people. And not to favour isdue that may destroy your nation.
說實話，這兩個國家真的需要事事迎合美國的利益嗎？美國真的在乎它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)會怎樣嗎？看看歐盟，支持美國的代價就是生活成本上升。
我希望所有世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都能明白，建立對本國經(jīng)濟(jì)和人民有利的關(guān)系的重要性，而不是迎合那些可能摧毀國家的議題。
I have to say it's a sad story.
Fourth generation nuclear power plant technology,
quantum communication technology,
ultra high voltage transmission technology,
supercomputer,
all superconducting tokamak nuclear fusion experimental device of the eastern superring,
synthetic life body (from compound to living DNA- protein), dark matter exploration,
top wind tunnel building technology…
I think we may have to redefine the word ‘most advanced’.
我不得不說這是一個悲傷的故事。
第四代核電技術(shù)，
量子通信技術(shù)，
超高壓輸電技術(shù)，
超級計算機，
東方超環(huán)的全超導(dǎo)托卡馬克核聚變實驗裝置，
合成生命體（從化合物到活的DNA-蛋白質(zhì)），暗物質(zhì)探索，
頂級風(fēng)洞建筑技術(shù)……
我認(rèn)為我們可能需要重新定義“最先進(jìn)”這個詞。
I think Mr. Kim’s Answer #4 is reason enough. If Japan has 2.5x the number of people than South Korea, then South Korea would have to have a per-capita income more than 2.5x that of Japan. Given that the two have similar per-capita incomes now ($38,100 for Japan and $36,600 for South Korea, according to the CIA Factbook, using purchasing power parity exchange rates) that means either Korea would somehow have to catapult up the league table to have the 4th highest per-capita income in the world, or Japan would have to see its standard of living collapse.
我認(rèn)為金先生的回答第4條就足夠說明問題。如果日本的人口是韓國的2.5倍，那么韓國的人均收入必須超過日本的2.5倍。根據(jù)CIA世界概況的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，現(xiàn)如今兩國的人均收入差不多（日本為38,100美元，韓國為36,600美元，按購買力平價匯率計算），這意味著韓國要么需要在全球人均收入排名中迅速躍升到第4位，要么日本的生活水平必須出現(xiàn)大幅下滑。
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順便說一下，我曾經(jīng)寫過一篇長文，回答了“為什么中國超越日本成為第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體？”的問題。關(guān)鍵點是，中國成為了第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，并不是因為日本出現(xiàn)了問題。如果中國“超越”了日本，那么它也“超越”了德國、英國、法國等其他國家，但沒有人認(rèn)為這是因為德國、英國或法國出現(xiàn)了問題。日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況還可以——雖然不算特別好，但也并不比大多數(shù)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體差。
As a Korean, I would have loved to say “Yes! Japan’s economy is going to crash and Korea will rise above the rubble of Japan and laugh and colonize Japan this time around!”
But nope. Korea’s economy won’t catch up to Japan’s economy for a variety of reasons.
作為一個韓國人，我曾經(jīng)很想說：“是的！日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)會崩潰，韓國將在日本的廢墟上崛起，嘲笑并再次殖民日本！”
但事實并非如此。由于各種原因，韓國的經(jīng)濟(jì)不會趕上日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
世界已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。早在日本開始經(jīng)歷指數(shù)級的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時，中國還對西方封閉，歐洲剛剛開始復(fù)蘇?，F(xiàn)在，中國已經(jīng)參與其中，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生了很大變化，像日本和韓國這樣的大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國家的增長都放緩了。甚至連韓國的“漢江奇跡”也在放緩，目前韓國的GDP增長率僅為3%。
人口老齡化。再次強調(diào)，龐大的勞動力是有利的，因為它為經(jīng)濟(jì)提供了靈活性。不幸的是，韓國的人口正在迅速老齡化，出生率是世界上最低的之一。這意味著工資將飆升，企業(yè)也會減少雇傭員工的意愿。
朝鮮。怎么說？是的，朝鮮也是影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個因素。由于朝鮮的敵對行為，投資者有時對投資韓國持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。研究表明，朝鮮的行動每天都會影響韓國股市。隨著朝鮮的持續(xù)存在和未來可能發(fā)生更大事件的威脅，投資者對投資這個潛在的未來戰(zhàn)爭區(qū)將變得更加猶豫。
還有人口規(guī)?！毡镜娜丝诖蠹s是韓國的2.5倍（1.27億對5100萬）。即使韓國與朝鮮統(tǒng)一，人口比例仍將約為2:1（1.27億對7500萬）。如果韓國想要趕超日本的GDP，這意味著它需要擁有更高的人均GDP。而這很困難，因為兩國的人均GDP相差不大。
韓國充其量將是日本的影子（哎，我打這些字的時候感覺自己都受傷了）。最多也不過是日本當(dāng)前GDP的一半。除非，當(dāng)然，韓國與朝鮮統(tǒng)一，并進(jìn)行大規(guī)模改革，利用朝鮮的各種礦產(chǎn)資源和人力資源。那么，情況可能會有所不同。
我認(rèn)為日本不會解決其龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。最多，他們能夠遏制經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，并希望能夠推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
As for language… It still remains the same. Chinese, English, Spanish, French, Japanese, etc.
至于東亞的未來，我認(rèn)為中國將毫無疑問地成為地區(qū)大國。最大的軍力，最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，和最大的人口。印度肯定會緊隨其后，或者成為中國的障礙。韓國和日本很可能會因為純粹的經(jīng)濟(jì)原因，在未來不論是否愿意，都逐漸向中國靠攏。
至于語言……它仍然保持不變。中文、英語、西班牙語、法語、日語等等。