經(jīng)濟學(xué)家為何憎恨特朗普的關(guān)稅計劃
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan
譯文簡介
關(guān)稅是前總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普經(jīng)濟計劃的核心。他希望對來自中國的所有商品征收 60% 的關(guān)稅，對來自世界其他地區(qū)的所有商品征收 10%-20% 的關(guān)稅。他想利用這種極端的貿(mào)易政策來創(chuàng)造收入以減稅。但它們將如何運作呢？
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Beware politicians peddling simplistic solutions to complex problems.
警惕那些拿簡單解決方案來應(yīng)對復(fù)雜問題的政客。
"For every complex problem, there's a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong."
H.L. Mencken
“每一個復(fù)雜的問題背后，都會有一個簡單、整潔但錯誤的解決方案?！?br /> —— H.L. 門肯
WHY DON'T PEOPLE KNOW HOW TARRIFS WORK. I'm here in Argentina, and you want to know how much a bottle of imported shampoo generally costs? $20-$30. And some items don't have many competitors, so the Argentian products get away with ALSO increasing their prices, because it will still be cheaper than the imported option, and it causes a domino effect with increased prices. Tarrifs are a nightmare for regular people
為什么大家都不知道關(guān)稅是怎么回事？我現(xiàn)在在阿根廷，你想知道一瓶進口洗發(fā)水一般多少錢嗎？大約20到30美元。而且有些商品競爭不大，阿根廷本地產(chǎn)品趁機也漲價了，因為即使?jié)q價，它依然比進口的便宜，這就導(dǎo)致了價格上漲的連鎖反應(yīng)。關(guān)稅對普通人來說真的是一場噩夢。
As an economist, it's just gonna be a disaster. Just watch as everything gets expensive, leading to higher inflation
作為一名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家，這簡直就是災(zāi)難。等著看吧，一切都會變得更貴，通貨膨脹也會越來越嚴(yán)重。
In all honesty, it actually doesn't matter who on earth pays the tariff whether it be the manufacturer or the importer. Because at the end of the day, only one person will pay. The Consumer.
說實話，誰來支付關(guān)稅其實并不重要，不管是制造商還是進口商。因為最終，真正支付的只有一個人——消費者。
Economists hate it because they are not stupid
經(jīng)濟學(xué)家討厭它，因為他們不是傻子。
Trump said "China paid the tariffs", but in reality, American consumers paid. That's thinking about hurting China first, not benefiting Americans first. In the end, who lost the trade war?
特朗普說“是中國支付了關(guān)稅”，但實際上，是美國消費者支付了。這是在想著先傷害中國，而不是先惠及美國人。最終，誰輸?shù)袅诉@場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)？
I’m starting to see how it was possible for Trump to bankrupt the casino
我開始明白為什么特朗普能夠把賭場搞破產(chǎn)了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
I work for one of the nation’s largest steel importers and distributors. When Trump imposed the tariffs on steel we kept buying the Chinese steel (because that’s what our customers wanted) and took that opportunity to massively jack up our prices on American steel to MATCH the now inflated price of imported steel. All our competitors did the EXACT SAME thing. Our customers had no choice but to now pay this premium costing American consumers billions of dollars extra annually and as a result helping send the country into economic inflation due to everything costing more. Edit: Industrial customers who buy steel for manufacturing can’t simply switch over to a different steel due to the elemental properties of said metals. Each “type” of steel, even though categorized as “the same” have slightly different properties that throw off a factory’s setting and require all new testing and production line recalibration. You can’t just STOP buying one type of steel and switch to another. That’s why our customers demanded we keep selling them the Chinese steel they had been using before the tariffs. These tariffs HURT American industry and we handed that hurt down to the customer’s pocketbooks.
我在全國最大的鋼鐵進口商和分銷商之一工作。當(dāng)特朗普對鋼鐵征收關(guān)稅時，我們繼續(xù)購買中國鋼鐵（因為這是客戶需要的），并趁機大幅提高美國鋼鐵的價格，以便與進口鋼鐵上漲后的價格對齊。我們的所有競爭對手都做了完全一樣的事情?？蛻魟e無選擇，只能支付這一溢價，導(dǎo)致美國消費者每年額外支出數(shù)十億美元，結(jié)果是整個國家陷入了經(jīng)濟通脹，因為一切都變得更貴了。編輯：那些購買鋼鐵用于制造的工業(yè)客戶，不能隨便換成其他鋼鐵，因為不同鋼鐵的元素特性不同。即使它們被歸類為“相同”的鋼鐵，實際的屬性也略有不同，這會影響工廠的設(shè)定，且需要重新測試和調(diào)整生產(chǎn)線。你不能輕易停止購買一種鋼鐵然后改用另一種。這就是為什么我們的客戶要求我們繼續(xù)賣他們關(guān)稅前使用的中國鋼鐵。關(guān)稅傷害了美國工業(yè)，而我們把這種傷害傳遞給了客戶的錢包。
I have a major problems getting behind an economic plan proposed by someone who was able to bankrupt a casino.
我真沒法支持一個由讓賭場破產(chǎn)的人提出的經(jīng)濟計劃。
It's ironic that Trump pushes for tariffs on China to 'protect American jobs,' yet many of his own campaign products are made in China. If he truly wanted to support American workers, shouldn't he lead by example and source locally? This feels more like a double standard than a real solution.
諷刺的是，特朗普提議對中國征收關(guān)稅以“保護美國工作崗位”，但他的很多競選產(chǎn)品卻是中國制造的。如果他真的想支持美國工人，難道不應(yīng)該以身作則，選擇本地采購嗎？這更像是一種雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而不是解決問題的辦法。
This is quite tarrifying
這真是太“關(guān)稅”了。
It's actually insane we have a candidate whose only economic policy is tarrifs, and he genuinely has no idea what a tarrif even is
簡直不可思議，我們竟然有一個候選人，唯一的經(jīng)濟政策就是關(guān)稅，而且他根本不知道關(guān)稅是什么。
I’ve always appreciated the line “Tariffs are you doing to yourself in peacetime what your opponents will attempt to do to you in wartime.”
我一直很喜歡這句話：“關(guān)稅就是你在和平時期做的事情，敵人在戰(zhàn)爭時期會試圖做同樣的事?！?/b>
This video does not cover the fact that Trump does not understand how tariffs work. Trump had claimed that tariffs don't raise the price on goods. Trump had suggested a 200% tariff on an American company that moved manufacturing out of the US.
這段視頻沒有提到特朗普根本不懂關(guān)稅是怎么運作的。特朗普曾聲稱關(guān)稅不會提高商品價格。他還提議對一家把制造業(yè)務(wù)遷出美國的美國公司征收200%的關(guān)稅。
‘Play a game of chicken’ is such a good way to end the video lol
“玩一場‘較量’的游戲”真是結(jié)束視頻的絕佳方式，哈哈。
He doesn’t have a tariff plan. He’s been asked at least two dozen times in various interviews what his tariff plan is, and he has never once answered the question.
他根本沒有關(guān)稅計劃。在各種采訪中，他至少被問了二十幾次關(guān)于關(guān)稅計劃的問題，但他從未回答過。
I work in the manufacturing industry and those 2018 tariffs radically changed the entire market. We had to be so incredibly careful about price increases and not shooting ourselves in the foot. It didn't help that construction jobs basically came to a close across the country, because they are planned months or even years ahead of time and a sudden massive increase like that was just too much. Companies that had been in the industry for decades were suddenly gone, tons of jobs were lost, and we were in the worst position that we could have been for when COVID hit.
我在制造業(yè)工作，2018年的關(guān)稅徹底改變了整個市場。我們不得不非常小心地控制價格上漲，避免自討苦吃。更糟糕的是，全國范圍內(nèi)的建筑工作幾乎停止了，因為這些項目通常要提前幾個月甚至幾年規(guī)劃，而突然的巨大漲幅簡直是無法承受的。那些在行業(yè)內(nèi)已經(jīng)營幾十年的公司突然消失，成千上萬的工作崗位消失，我們在疫情來臨時處于最糟糕的境地。
A major cause of the Great Depression in the 1930s was tariffs. Nobody wins trade wars,
上世紀(jì)30年代大蕭條的一個主要原因就是關(guān)稅。沒有人能贏得貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。
The consumer always loses.
消費者總是最終付出代價。
Trump: I will fix inflation
Also Trump: proposes a tariff which will cause massive inflation
特朗普：我將解決通貨膨脹
同時特朗普：提議征收關(guān)稅，這將導(dǎo)致大規(guī)模的通貨膨脹
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Tariffs will increase costs of finished goods and components used throughout US manufacturing. This will be an immediate and huge hike in inflation. To fight inflation the Fed will have to hike interest rates which will be wonderful for the billionaires but possibly take away the middle class. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
關(guān)稅將提高美國制造業(yè)使用的成品和零部件的成本。這將導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹立刻大幅上漲。為了對抗通貨膨脹，美聯(lián)儲將不得不提高利率，這對億萬富翁來說是好事，但可能會削弱中產(chǎn)階級。通貨膨脹已經(jīng)高得驚人，消費者甚至不得不借債來支付基本生活必需品。崩潰的開始已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。
I love how the American poor rush to elect leaders who promote more poverty for them.
我真是喜歡美國貧困群體如何急著選舉那些為他們帶來更多貧困的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。
Great informational video. Didn’t think we’d get sentimental and deep but I’m here for it.
這是一段很棒的信息視頻。我沒想到會變得這么感性和深刻，但我喜歡。
As someone that lives in a country that used to be protectionist using import tariffs, our economics will say, in any day of the week, that protectionism in a globalized economy is the fastest way to shrink your own economy and make progress to stagnate quickly.
作為一個生活在曾經(jīng)依賴進口關(guān)稅的保護主義國家的人，我們的經(jīng)濟學(xué)觀點是，在全球化經(jīng)濟中，保護主義是最迅速縮小自己經(jīng)濟并迅速停滯進步的方式。
Kinda crazy how people don’t realize a tariff plan will be terrible for the American people. We import too many products, especially from China… this will also allow American companies to up their prices, greed seems to always win.
有點瘋狂，人們竟然沒有意識到關(guān)稅計劃對美國人民有多糟糕。我們進口了太多的產(chǎn)品，尤其是來自中國的……這還會讓美國公司提高價格，貪婪似乎總是占上風(fēng)。
Two repeatedly occurring events in the world with no winners: war, and tariffs.
世界上有兩件反復(fù)發(fā)生的事情，沒有贏家：戰(zhàn)爭和關(guān)稅。
Condensed version: The working class suffers.
簡明版本：工人階級受苦。
1.5 billion for 1.5k jobs is unbelievable.
15億美元換1500個工作崗位，真是難以置信。
It’s almost like Trump isn’t actually that smart of a businessman. Who could have predicted that?
幾乎就像特朗普根本不是那么聰明的商人。誰能預(yù)測到這一點？
Anybody here January 31st 2025 on the eve of tariff's for Mexico and Canada?
2025年1月31日，這里有人關(guān)注即將對墨西哥和加拿大征收關(guān)稅嗎？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://top-shui.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
I usually look up your videos for upxes! Our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel for people with disabilities not getting the help they deserve.
我通常會查看你們的視頻來獲取更新！我們的政府完全不了解現(xiàn)在人們的困境。我為那些沒有得到應(yīng)有幫助的殘障人士感到難過。
Tariff are a way to shift taxes to the poor and middle class.
關(guān)稅是一種將稅負轉(zhuǎn)嫁給貧困和中產(chǎn)階級的方式。
Trust a repeatedly bankrupt businessman? Only angry voters who don't understand economics would want this clown running things!!
相信一個屢次破產(chǎn)的商人？只有那些不了解經(jīng)濟學(xué)的憤怒選民才會希望讓這個小丑來執(zhí)政！
Tariffs are just another tax. It will be the man in the street who have to pay in the end.
關(guān)稅不過是另一種稅收。最終，街頭的小人物將不得不為此買單。
Increased Prices for Consumers: Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which often gets passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This reduces purchasing power and can make everyday items more expensive
消費者面臨價格上漲：關(guān)稅提高了進口商品的成本，通常這種成本會以更高的價格轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費者。這降低了購買力，可能使日常用品變得更加昂貴。
I better not hear a single maga fan complaining about inflation in these next four years
希望接下來的四年里，我不會聽到一個特朗普支持者抱怨通貨膨脹。
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you guys totally blew it when you didn't even mention how china retaliated by not buying us grain . thousands of us farmers went bankrupt because they lost the Chinese market. this kind of thing will happen all over the world .
你們真是完全搞砸了，居然連中國如何反擊、停止購買我們糧食的事都沒提。成千上萬的美國農(nóng)民因為失去了中國市場而破產(chǎn)。這種事情將在全球范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生。
I could have answered that in two seconds:
Because it’s stupid and will cost the poorest in the US the most.
我兩秒鐘就能回答這個問題：
因為它很愚蠢，而且會讓美國最貧困的人付出最多代價。
I'm from Germany, and i don't see why we should please the us, if they wanna be so aggressiv. There are other countries emerging with better terms and friendlier attitude. The US isn't the only Market out there...
我來自德國，我不明白為什么我們要討好美國，如果他們想這么咄咄逼人?，F(xiàn)在有其他國家在崛起，提供更好的條件和更友好的態(tài)度。美國不是唯一的市場……
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Let's not forget that many companies will CHOOSE to raise their prices with these things because it's the normal thing to do. It doesn't actually have to be like this.
別忘了，許多公司會 主動 借此機會漲價，因為這已經(jīng)成為慣例。事實上，完全不必如此。
How idiotic it is to believe and pick a privileged rich dude for a president and not expect him to grant more privileges to his rich buddies in the detriment of the poor/average folk is beyond me...
讓我無法理解的是，居然有人天真地相信并選擇了一個出身優(yōu)越的富豪當(dāng)總統(tǒng)，還指望他不去給自己的富人朋友謀利，而不是犧牲普通民眾的利益……
This video is recommended to me now after USA imposes tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.
美國對中國、墨西哥和加拿大加征關(guān)稅后，YouTube 現(xiàn)在才給我推薦這段視頻……
It's not about the economy for him. He wants to mindlessly swing around power and hopes that the rest of the world will acquiesce. That's why so much has been announced and paused shortly thereafter.
對他來說，這根本不是經(jīng)濟問題。他只是想隨意炫耀自己的權(quán)力，并希望全世界都順從他。這就是為什么很多政策剛宣布不久又被暫停。
A tariff is a tax on the consumer. That is the lesson my country (New Zealand) learned in the 1970s and 1980s. We had a totally protected economy in the early 1980s when we had the most expensive cars in the world thanks to tariffs to protect our so-called car industry. Now we don't have a car industry, which was not worth saving, but we have very cheap cars. Tariffs also cause economic distortions and inefficiency. US consumers will suffer under Trump's plan.
關(guān)稅本質(zhì)上是對消費者征稅。這是我所在的國家（新西蘭）在 20 世紀(jì) 70 至 80 年代學(xué)到的教訓(xùn)。上世紀(jì) 80 年代初，我們曾有一個完全受保護的經(jīng)濟體系，靠關(guān)稅來“保護”所謂的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)，結(jié)果導(dǎo)致新西蘭的汽車價格全球最高?，F(xiàn)在，我們的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)消失（本來也不值得保留），但我們卻擁有了非常便宜的汽車。關(guān)稅不僅會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟扭曲和低效，也會讓美國消費者在特朗普的政策下受苦。
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Elect a clown, expect a circus.
選個小丑當(dāng)總統(tǒng)，就別指望有正常日子過。
How American people think that a multiple times failed businessman knows how to save a country's economy is absolutely bewildering to me.
美國人居然覺得一個屢次破產(chǎn)的商人能拯救國家經(jīng)濟，這讓我實在無法理解。
I'm relieved that the comment section is still full of reasonable and smart people and not bowing down to Donald Trump's selfish desires.
看到評論區(qū)里仍然充滿理性和聰明的人，而不是盲目順從特朗普的自私欲望，我松了一口氣。
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All those Trump supporters saying the economy was important to them, and then showing they don't understand anything about the economy.
那些支持特朗普的人總是說經(jīng)濟對他們很重要，但他們的言行卻表明他們完全不懂經(jīng)濟。
Hahahah, he's president now, shows that half of the Americans don't read anything other than the headlines.
哈哈哈，他現(xiàn)在又當(dāng)總統(tǒng)了，這說明美國有一半的人只會看新聞標(biāo)題，根本不看內(nèi)容。
Markets look like 2015-16. Probably going back to all-time highs, but will probably go sideways until the Fed signals rate cut. Recently sold 25% of my $285k portfolio comprising of plummeting stocks that were recommended by certain financial YouTubers, quite devastating!
市場看起來像 2015-16 年那樣，可能會回到歷史最高點，但可能會一直橫盤，直到美聯(lián)儲暗示降息。最近我拋售了我 28.5 萬美元投資組合中的 25%，其中很多股票是某些財經(jīng) YouTuber 推薦的，虧慘了！
To sum up, whether the price is higher or lower, the only entity put at risk is THE BUYER.
總結(jié)一下，不管價格漲還是跌，唯一承擔(dān)風(fēng)險的永遠是 買家。
Big surprise. If you use tariffs and remove competition, local production has no incentive to do anything except be 1 penny cheaper than the tariffed product.
真是大驚喜。如果你用關(guān)稅來消滅競爭，本地生產(chǎn)商唯一的動力就是把價格設(shè)定為比受關(guān)稅影響的進口商品便宜一分錢，僅此而已。
How did America get so stupid that you have to explain everything to them, and they still don’t understand?
美國到底怎么了？你把所有道理都解釋給他們聽了，他們居然還是聽不懂？
These tariffs are a terrible idea, but people voted for this guy anyway. That decision will come back to haunt them. I mean, you handed the keys to the guy who created all these economic problems in the first place.
這些關(guān)稅是個糟糕透頂?shù)闹饕?，但人們還是選了這個家伙。這個決定最終會讓他們后悔的。畢竟，你們把鑰匙交給了那個一手制造了這些經(jīng)濟問題的人。
If tariffs worked, why isn’t everyone using them?
如果關(guān)稅真的有效，為什么不是每個國家都在用？
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Trump: “I don’t have to be smart, I just need to know how stupid the voters are.”
特朗普：“我不需要聰明，我只需要知道選民有多蠢?！?/b>
25% tariffs this weekend. Hold onto your butts people, we're about to be much poorer.
本周末 25% 關(guān)稅生效。各位，準(zhǔn)備勒緊褲腰帶吧，我們即將變得更窮了。
The last time we tried this it didn't work out so good.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by Congress in 1930.
The act was named after its sponsors, Republican Senator Reed Smoot and Republican Representative Willis Hawley.
The act raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.
The act was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover in June 1930.
What were the effects of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?
The tariff led to retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
The tariff caused a reduction in American exports and imports by 67%.
The tariff caused prices to increase in the U.S., making it harder for people to afford goods.
The tariff failed to protect domestic businesses.
The tariff contributed to the global economic decline of the 1930s.
上次我們試過這種做法，結(jié)果并不好。
斯穆特-霍利關(guān)稅法案于 1930 年由國會通過。
該法案以其發(fā)起人——共和黨參議員里德·斯穆特和共和黨眾議員威利斯·霍利的名字命名。
該法案提高了超過 20,000 種進口商品的關(guān)稅。
該法案于 1930 年 6 月由總統(tǒng)赫伯特·胡佛簽署成為法律。
斯穆特-霍利關(guān)稅法案的影響是什么？
該關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致其他國家的報復(fù)性關(guān)稅。
該關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致美國進出口減少了 67%。
該關(guān)稅導(dǎo)致美國國內(nèi)價格上漲，使人們更難負擔(dān)商品。
該關(guān)稅未能保護國內(nèi)企業(yè)。
該關(guān)稅加劇了 1930 年代的全球經(jīng)濟衰退。
Here after Mexico, Colombia and Canada all caved to different demands to avoid a 25% tariff.
現(xiàn)在來看，墨西哥、哥倫比亞和加拿大都為了避免 25% 關(guān)稅而屈服了各種要求。
Everyone I know thinks this is a terrible idea.
我認識的每個人都認為這是個糟糕的主意。
No more income taxes but everything you buy has a giant tax (tariff) on it. Great stuff.
不再征收所得稅了，但你買的每樣?xùn)|西上都有巨額稅費（關(guān)稅）。真是太棒了。
Over half of America thought a failed businessman can solve the problems but they are about to find out that he’s about to exacerbate their problems by a major factor.
超過一半的美國人認為一個失敗的商人能解決問題，但他們即將發(fā)現(xiàn)，他將通過一個重大因素加劇他們的問題。
Who will punish the responsible for exporting our jobs, we lost all manufacturing jobs.
誰來懲罰那些把我們的工作外包出去的人？我們失去了所有制造業(yè)的工作崗位。
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
鑒于全球經(jīng)濟危機持續(xù)蔓延，每個人都應(yīng)優(yōu)先投資于不依賴政府的多元化收入來源。這包括探索股票、黃金、白銀和數(shù)字貨幣的投資機會。盡管經(jīng)濟形勢艱難，但現(xiàn)在仍是考慮這些投資的有利時機。
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This policy means middle class Americans will pay for the rich to get richer.
這一政策意味著中產(chǎn)階級美國人將為富人變得更富有埋單。
Trump doesn’t know what a tariff is which is absolutely insane for a former president. He actually thinks China pays the tariff.
特朗普根本不知道什么是關(guān)稅，這對于一位前總統(tǒng)來說簡直是瘋狂。他竟然認為是中國支付了關(guān)稅。
It's the regular people who are getting affected by this.
受此影響的其實是普通民眾。
When WSJ is being critical to a Republican president, you know how bad the situation is.
當(dāng)《華爾街日報》批評一位共和黨總統(tǒng)時，你就知道情況有多糟糕了。
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Just think of it as a 20% tax increase.
把它當(dāng)作是一次20%的稅收增加就好了。