All UK families ‘to be worse off by 2030’ as poor bear the brunt, new data warns
-Keir Starmer has been dealt a fresh blow to his living standards pledge in advance of the spring statement

最新數(shù)據(jù)警告稱，到2030年，所有英國(guó)家庭的狀況都將惡化，窮人首當(dāng)其沖
——在春季聲明之前，斯塔默的生活水平承諾受到了新的打擊


(Keir Starmer has promised to put more money in the pockets of working people.)

（斯塔默已承諾將更多的錢(qián)放進(jìn)工人階層的口袋。）
新聞：

Living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030, with those on the lowest incomes declining twice as fast as middle and high earners, according to data that raises serious questions about Keir Starmer’s pledge to make working people better off.

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2030年，所有英國(guó)家庭的生活水平都將下降，最低收入家庭的下降速度將是中高收入者的兩倍。這讓人對(duì)斯塔默提高工薪階層生活水平的承諾產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重質(zhì)疑。

The grim economic analysis, produced by the respected Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), comes before the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, makes her spring statement on Wednesday in which she will announce new cuts to public spending rather than increase borrowing or raise taxes, so as to keep within the government’s “iron clad” fiscal rules.

這份嚴(yán)峻的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析報(bào)告是由德高望重的Joseph Rowntree基金會(huì)撰寫(xiě)的。這份報(bào)告將在財(cái)政大臣雷切爾·里夫斯周三發(fā)表春季聲明之前發(fā)布。在聲明中，她將宣布新的公共支出削減計(jì)劃，而不是增加借貸或增稅，以遵守政府“鐵板一般”的財(cái)政規(guī)則。
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In December, the prime minister announced a series of -“milestones” that he said would be passed before the next general -election, which is likely to be held in 2029. The first of these was “putting more money in the pockets of -working people”.

去年12月，首相宣布了一系列“里程碑”，他說(shuō)這些目標(biāo)將在下屆大選（可能在2029年舉行）之前通過(guò)。第一個(gè)是“讓更多的錢(qián)放進(jìn)工人階層的口袋”。

But with many Labour MPs already deeply concerned about Reeves’s plan to raise about ￡5bn by cutting -benefits, including for disabled -people, evidence that living standards are on course to fall markedly under a Labour government – and to decline most for the least well off – will add to the mood of growing disquiet in party’s ranks.

但是，由于許多工黨議員已經(jīng)對(duì)里夫斯通過(guò)削減福利（包括殘疾人福利）來(lái)籌集約50億英鎊的計(jì)劃深感擔(dān)憂，有證據(jù)表明，在工黨政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，生活水平將明顯下降，而最不富裕的人的生活水平下降得最多，這將加劇黨內(nèi)日益增長(zhǎng)的不安情緒。

The JRF analysis rests on a -realistic assumption that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will adjust its forecasts in line with the Bank of England and other main forecasters when it makes them public on Wednesday. The OBR is expected to halve the expected growth rate for this year from 2% to about 1%.

Joseph Rowntree基金會(huì)的分析基于一個(gè)不現(xiàn)實(shí)的假設(shè)，即預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室將在周三公布預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)，根據(jù)英國(guó)央行和其他主要預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)的意見(jiàn)調(diào)整其預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室預(yù)計(jì)將把今年的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)率從2%減半至1%左右。

In what it describes as a “dismal reality”, the JRF said its detailed analysis shows that the past year could mark a high point for living standards in this parliament. It concludes that the average family will be ￡1,400 worse off by 2030, representing a 3% fall in their disposable incomes. The lowest income families will be ￡900 a year worse off, amounting to a 6% fall in the amount they have to spend.

Joseph Rowntree基金會(huì)稱這是一個(gè)“令人沮喪的現(xiàn)實(shí)”，其詳細(xì)分析顯示，過(guò)去一年可能標(biāo)志著本屆議會(huì)提供的生活水平達(dá)到了一個(gè)高點(diǎn)。報(bào)告的結(jié)論是，到2030年，普通家庭的收入將減少1400英鎊，這意味著他們的可支配收入將減少3%。收入最低的家庭每年將減少900英鎊，相當(dāng)于他們的支出減少了6%。

The JRF also said that if living standards have not recovered by 2030, Starmer will not only have failed to pass his No 1 milestone but will also have presided over the first government since 1955 to have seen a fall in living standards across a full parliament.

Joseph Rowntree基金會(huì)還表示，如果生活水平到2030年還沒(méi)有恢復(fù)，那么斯塔默不僅將無(wú)法達(dá)到他的第一里程碑，而且還將成為自1955年以來(lái)第一個(gè)在整個(gè)議會(huì)中看到生活水平下降的政府。

Comparing 2030 with 2025, it said the average mortgage holder is set to pay about ￡1,400 more in -mortgage interest annually and the average renter about ￡300 more in rent a year, while average earnings are set to fall by ￡700 a year. The JRF said the poorest third are being disproportionately affected by rising housing costs, falling real earnings and frozen tax thresholds.

報(bào)告稱，2030年與2025年相比，抵押貸款持有人平均每年將多支付約1400英鎊的抵押貸款利息，租房者平均每年將多支付約300英鎊的租金，而平均收入每年將減少700英鎊。JRF表示，最貧窮的三分之一人口受到住房成本上漲、實(shí)際收入下降和稅收起征點(diǎn)凍結(jié)的影響尤為嚴(yán)重。
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Alfie Stirling, director of insight and policy at JRF, said further cuts were not the way to reverse the trend of falling living standards. Instead, he argued, Reeves should consider raising tax for the wealthiest.

Joseph Rowntree基金會(huì)的洞察力和政策主管阿爾菲·斯特林表示，進(jìn)一步削減開(kāi)支并不能扭轉(zhuǎn)生活水平下降的趨勢(shì)。相反，他認(rèn)為里夫斯應(yīng)該考慮對(duì)最富有的人增稅。
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“There is no doubt the government is facing an unenviable list of economic pressures and uncertainties, ranging from the domestic to the international. But how you manage these risks is a matter of political choice..

“毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，政府正面臨著一系列不值得羨慕的經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力和不確定因素，從國(guó)內(nèi)到國(guó)際都有。但如何管理這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一個(gè)政治選擇問(wèn)題。

“It is wrong, and ultimately counterproductive, to try and rebuild the public finances through cuts to disability benefits. Instead, government should be addressing hardship and raising living standards directly, as part of their strategy for growth.

“試圖通過(guò)削減殘疾人福利來(lái)重建公共財(cái)政是錯(cuò)誤的，最終會(huì)適得其反。相反，政府應(yīng)該直接解決困難和提高生活水平，作為其增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略的一部分。

“Fiscal pressures should be met through tax reform. There are a number of options to raise revenue from those with the broadest shoulders, while also supporting growth by removing perverse incentives in the tax system and staying within the government’s manifesto commitments.”

“財(cái)政壓力應(yīng)該通過(guò)稅制改革來(lái)解決。有很多選擇可以從承受力最強(qiáng)的人群增加收入，同時(shí)通過(guò)取消稅收體系中的不正當(dāng)激勵(lì)措施和遵守政府的宣言承諾來(lái)支持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?！?/b>
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Earlier last week a group of leading economists wrote to the Financial Times warning that it would be a “profound mistake” for ministers to cut spending or investment, adding that “the UK cannot cut its way to growth”.

上周早些時(shí)候，一群知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家致信英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》警告稱，大臣們削減支出或投資將是一個(gè)“嚴(yán)重錯(cuò)誤”，并補(bǔ)充稱，“英國(guó)不能通過(guò)削減來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)”。

Several areas of unprotected government spending such as prisons, justice and local government – the last of which has already seen real terms cuts of over 45% since 2010 – are likely to be in line for further cuts on Wednesday, casting doubt on Starmer’s claim that is not returning the country to austerity.

幾個(gè)不受保護(hù)的政府支出領(lǐng)域，比如監(jiān)獄、司法和地方政府——自2010年以來(lái)，最后一個(gè)領(lǐng)域的實(shí)際開(kāi)支已經(jīng)削減了45%以上——可能會(huì)在周三進(jìn)一步削減，這讓人懷疑斯塔默的說(shuō)法，即國(guó)家不會(huì)回到緊縮狀態(tài)。

In her budget last October, Reeves left herself with ￡9.9bn of “fiscal headroom” – in effect, spare money in reserve – to allow her to meet her fiscal rule that says day-to-day spending must be matched by revenue coming into the Treasury.

在去年10月的預(yù)算中，里夫斯給自己留下了99億英鎊的“財(cái)政剩余空間”——實(shí)際上是儲(chǔ)備的余錢(qián)——以使她能夠滿足自己的財(cái)政規(guī)定，即日常支出必須與進(jìn)入財(cái)政部的收入相匹配。

But higher-than-expected borrowing costs on global markets, leading to higher debt interest payments, and lower than expected growth have wiped away that leeway, leaving her needing to find ways to restore the finances through raising money or cutting expenditure or both.

但全球市場(chǎng)高于預(yù)期的借貸成本，導(dǎo)致更高的債務(wù)利息支付，以及低于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，已經(jīng)抹去了這一回旋余地，使她需要通過(guò)籌集資金或削減支出，或兩者兼而有之，找到恢復(fù)財(cái)政的方法。

Local government leaders are among those most anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s statement, which they fear could reduce what they receive and tip more councils into bankruptcy, leaving them all straining more to fund key services for the most vulnerable such as social care.

地方政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是最焦急地等待周三聲明的人之一，他們擔(dān)心這可能會(huì)減少他們收到的資金，并使更多的地方議會(huì)破產(chǎn)，使它們?cè)跒樽钊鮿?shì)群體提供關(guān)鍵服務(wù)（比如社會(huì)福利）方面更加緊張。

Councillor Louise Gittins, chair of the Local Government Association, said that “without adequate investment now, we risk not being able to deliver crucial services that so many depend upon and our desire to help government fulfil its ambitions for the future are severely hindered”.

地方政府協(xié)會(huì)主席、議員路易斯·吉廷斯說(shuō)：“如果現(xiàn)在沒(méi)有足夠的投資，我們就有可能無(wú)法提供許多人依賴的關(guān)鍵服務(wù)，我們幫助政府實(shí)現(xiàn)未來(lái)雄心的愿望也會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重阻礙?！?/b>

With ministers struggling to manage the economy, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows the damage being done to Labour’s reputation from its economic stewardship after eight months in power.

在大臣們努力管理經(jīng)濟(jì)之際，Opinium發(fā)現(xiàn)，在經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題上，沒(méi)有哪一位政黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是值得信任的。然而，斯塔默（-32%）和里夫斯（-38%）是最不受信任的，而改革黨領(lǐng)袖奈杰爾·法拉奇、保守黨領(lǐng)袖凱米·巴德諾克和影子財(cái)政大臣梅爾·斯特雷德則分別被評(píng)為-22%、-23%和-24%。最新的民意調(diào)查顯示，執(zhí)政8個(gè)月后，工黨的經(jīng)濟(jì)管理對(duì)其聲譽(yù)造成了損害。

No single party leader is now trusted on the economy, Opinium found. However, Starmer (-32%) and Reeves (-38%) are the most distrusted, with the Reform leader, Nigel Farage, the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, and shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, all rated similarly on -22%, -23% and -24% respectively.

Opinium發(fā)現(xiàn)，在經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題上，沒(méi)有哪一位政黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是值得信任的。然而，斯塔默（-32%）和里夫斯（-38%）是最不受信任的，而改革黨領(lǐng)袖奈杰爾·法拉奇、保守黨領(lǐng)袖凱米·巴德諾克和影子財(cái)政大臣梅爾·斯特雷德則分別被評(píng)為-22%、-23%和-24%。

While most voters say they do not trust any party on economic issues, the Tories are now marginally more favoured than Labour to run the economy and “improve your financial situation”.

雖然大多數(shù)選民表示，他們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題上不信任任何政黨，但在管理經(jīng)濟(jì)和“改善你的財(cái)務(wù)狀況”方面，保守黨現(xiàn)在比工黨略微更受歡迎。

Ministers will announce plans on Sunday to spend ￡600m on 60,000 more construction workers to help build more homes and revive economic growth.

大臣們將于周日宣布計(jì)劃，斥資6億英鎊招聘6萬(wàn)名建筑工人，以幫助建造更多住房，重振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

Reeves said: “We are determined to get Britain building again, that’s why we are taking on the blockers to build 1.5m new homes and rebuild our roads, rail and energy infrastructure.

里夫斯說(shuō)：“我們決心讓英國(guó)重新建設(shè)起來(lái)，這就是為什么我們要接受阻礙，建造150萬(wàn)套新住房，重建我們的公路、鐵路和能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施?！?/b>

“But none of this is possible without the engineers, brickies, sparkies, and chippies to actually get the work done, which we are facing a massive shortage of.”

“但如果沒(méi)有工程師、磚匠、清潔工和芯片工人來(lái)完成工作，這一切都不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)，而我們正面臨著嚴(yán)重的短缺?！?/b>

“We’ve overhauled the planning system that is holding this country back, now we are gripping the lack of skilled construction workers, delivering on our plan for change to boost jobs and growth for working people.”

“我們已經(jīng)徹底改革了阻礙這個(gè)國(guó)家發(fā)展的規(guī)劃體系，現(xiàn)在我們正在解決缺乏熟練建筑工人的問(wèn)題，實(shí)施我們的改革計(jì)劃，為工人階層增加就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?！?/b>
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A Treasury spokesperson said: “Real wages are rising at the highest level in six months, but this government inherited the worst living standards growth since ONS [Office for National Statistics] records began.

英國(guó)財(cái)政部一位發(fā)言人表示：“實(shí)際工資正處于6個(gè)月來(lái)的最高水平，但本屆政府接手的是自英國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局有記錄以來(lái)最糟糕的生活水平增長(zhǎng)。

“We are clear that getting more money in people’s pockets is the No 1 mission in our plan for change. Since the election, there have been three interest rate cuts, we have increased the national living wage by a record amount, the triple lock on pensions means that millions will see their state pension rise by up to ￡1,900 this parliament and working people’s payslips have been protected from high taxes.”

“我們很清楚，讓人們的口袋里有更多的錢(qián)是我們改革計(jì)劃的首要任務(wù)。自選舉以來(lái)，已經(jīng)有三次降息，我們將全國(guó)最低生活工資提高到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平，養(yǎng)老金三重鎖定意味著數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的國(guó)家養(yǎng)老金將在本屆議會(huì)中增加1900英鎊，勞動(dòng)人民的工資單將免受高稅收的影響?！?br />
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